interesting black friday stat

Calgunner23 · 11-25-16, 07:32 PM

As a general rule, I tend to take points on rivalry week. Happens every year.

Best of luck man!

VegasPlayer · 11-25-16, 07:35 PM

Watched the Houston and Boise debacles. Many teams poorly prepared to play today.

Jerm3085 · 11-25-16, 07:56 PM

Maybe turkey day hangover?

gojetsgomoxies · 11-25-16, 08:07 PM

good work, OP.. who did boise lose to? i can't remember but was somewhat surprised how low the spread was.

Time is Money · 11-25-16, 08:22 PM

Bowling Green won, they didn't cover but they didn't lose.

gojetsgomoxies · 11-25-16, 08:31 PM

OP, did some sports database queries... seems to be something to underdogs on fridays late in the season, but non-bowl. i think road favorites were poor, but not that many

phil_abuster · 11-25-16, 08:54 PM

so a look at recent seasons results......

2015 rivalry weekend FAVS to cover:

34-23-1 (varies depending on actual lines)
so betting on the FAVS would have been quite profitable last yr.

2014 rivalry weekend FAVS to cover:

26-28-2 (varies depending on actual lines)
betting on dogs would have been almost break-even

2013 rivalry weekend FAVS to cover:

22-33-1 (varies depending on actual lines)
so betting on dogs would have been profitable!

phil_abuster · 11-25-16, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by phil_abuster

the favs suck!
so far, four 2-possession favs have lost outright

r the favs overrated especially on rivalry weekend??!

black friday favs so far:

n.carolina - failed to cover -10 and LOST (home team)
bowling - failed to cover -12 (home team)
La. tech - failed to cover -15 and LOST
boise - failed to cover -8.5 and LOST
texas - failed to cover -3 and LOST (home team)
arkansas - failed to cover -7 and LOST
houston - failed to cover -5 and LOST
baylor -5.5 likely to lose big!!

w.mich -7 won/covered (home team)
iowa - won/covered (home team)
n.illinois - won/covered
washington - won/covered

tulsa (home team) and az.st remaining favs yet to start

if the favs r truly overvalued this entire weekend
makes me think about saturday's rivalry games a bit differently
or, maybe this means absolutely nothing.......

that said, Cinci +22.5 road dog is UP by 17pts on the home favs
tulsa will have to outscore them by 40 to cover

QuantumLeap · 11-25-16, 10:32 PM

Just wanted to add that Toledo had a couple turnovers in their own red zone that lead to scores by WMU. Other than these, Toledo played well enough to cover.

phil_abuster · 11-25-16, 11:03 PM

and to add to this amazing "favs r failing horribly" stat
az.st sundevils -2 road favs, r down 21 pts and playing badly late in half

QuantumLeap · 11-25-16, 11:36 PM

Originally posted by phil_abuster

and to add to this amazing "favs r failing horribly" stat
az.st sundevils -2 road favs, r down 21 pts and playing badly late in half

Even though ASU scored toward the end of the 1st half and Arizona is up 28-14, I took Arizona +4 for the 2nd half. ASU's first score was a fluke fumble recovery. Other than that they have had problems moving the ball with the exception of that last score. Arizona has been able to run and should continue to do so, especially when the ASU run defenders get tired toward the end of the game. Expect some more big runs by Arizona.

phil_abuster · 11-26-16, 08:42 AM

the favs suck!

Final tally from black friday

r the favs overrated -- especially on rivalry weekend??!
U decide if this has any value for your saturday games

10 fav failures:

tulsa - failed to cover -22.5 won by 3 (home team)
La. tech - failed to cover -15 and LOST
bowling - failed to cover -12 won by 8 (home team)
n.carolina -failed to cover -10 and LOST (home team)
boise - failed to cover -8.5 and LOST
arkansas - failed to cover -7 and LOST
baylor - failed to cover -5.5 and LOST
houston - failed to cover -5 and LOST
texas - failed to cover -3 and LOST (home team)
ariz.st - failed to cover -2 and LOST

only 4 fav winners:

w.mich -7 won/covered (home team)
iowa - won/covered (home team)
n.illinois - won/covered
washington - won/covered

and a look at recent seasons results......

2015 rivalry weekend FAVS to cover:

34-23-1 (varies depending on actual lines)
so betting on the FAVS would have been quite profitable last yr.

2014 rivalry weekend FAVS to cover:

26-28-2 (varies depending on actual lines)
betting on dogs would have been almost break-even

2013 rivalry weekend FAVS to cover:

22-33-1 (varies depending on actual lines)
so betting on dogs would have been profitable!