Dr. Bob's plays/writeups ending 11/11 right here*

imgv94 · 11-09-06, 04:07 PM

****TCU (-8.0) 24 NEW MEXICO 20
02:30 PM Pacific, 11-Nov-06
New Mexico has always started slowly and improved as the season progresses under coach Rocky Long and this season is no different. The Lobos started the season with a home loss to Division 1AA Portland State and were 2-4 straight up and 2-3 ATS in their first 6 games before running off 3 straight wins and spread wins with talented freshman Donovan Porterie at quarterback. New Mexico is 19-27 straight up and 15-25-1 ATS in the first 6 games of the season under Long since 1999 and the Lobos are now 29-13 straight up and 32-10 ATS in from game 7 on (regular season), including an incredible 24-1 ATS in their last 25 late season games when not favored by 3 points or more (as favorite of less than 3 or dog). The Lobosâ€™ offense has improved in those 3 games with Porterie at quarterback, averaging 5.5 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack. That is much better than the -0.9 yppl rating that they had in their first 6 games with two other starting quarterbacks. New Mexico has a solid defense that has allowed 5.0 yppl to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average stop unit, so they are about average overall from the line of scrimmage and better than average in special teams. TCU is a good team, rating at 0.1 yppl better than average on offense and 0.8 yppl better than average on defense, but the Horned Frogs are certainly not good enough to be favored by as many points as they are against the improved Lobos. In fact, my math model favors TCU by just 1 Â½ points in this game and New Mexico has had an extra week to prepare, which is very advantageous late in the season. The Lobos actually apply to a 40-10-1 ATS late season team off a bye angle and TCU is not that great on the road, going just 7-14 ATS in conference road games under coach Patterson and 2-9 ATS as a road favorite of more than 7 points (0-5 ATS in conference). This one looks good every way you look at it, as we have a strong general situation, supporting team trends and good line value. Iâ€™ll take New Mexico in a 4- Star Best Bet at +7 points or more, for 3-Stars from +6 Â½ to +4 points and for 2-Stars at +3 Â½ or +3 points.

4 Star Selection
****SAN JOSE ST. 24 Boise St. (-14.5) 27
03:00 PM Pacific, 11-Nov-06
There is a lot of pressure on unbeaten teams late in the season and usually those teams tend to play not to lose rather than playing to win big. In fact, unbeaten road teams that are 7-0 or better, are just 93-132-4 ATS since 1980 and Boise State actually applies to a very negative 10-48-2 ATS subset of that situation that is 0-17 ATS since 2000. The Broncos applied to that same subset in their lackluster 42-26 win as a 21 point road favorite at Idaho a few weeks ago. San Jose State, meanwhile, applies to a 55- 19-2 ATS late season home underdog momentum situation and the record is a perfect 11-0 ATS if both angles apply to the same game. There are a few other situations favoring San Jose State as well and the Spartans are a pretty decent team. San Jose State has a great running back in Yonus Davis, who has 861 yards at 7.4 ypr this season, and a better than average veteran quarterback in Adam Tafralis (7.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average quarterback). Overall the Spartans are 0.4 yards per play better than average offensively and they are average defensively, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defense. Boise State is obviously better on both sides of the ball, rating at 0.8 yppl better than average offensively (with QB Zabransky in the game) and 0.3 yppl better than average defensively. You may notice that San Jose State has a slight advantage on offense over Boise Stateâ€™s defense, which is important when backing a big home underdog. Overall, my math model favors Boise State by just 10 points in this game and the Spartans lost by just 5 points at Washington earlier this season (when the Huskies had their starting quarterback and were playing well), so they have proven that they can compete with better teams. The Spartans have a very profitable 65% chance of covering at +14 points and Iâ€™ll take San Jose State in a 4-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more, for 3-Stars from +12 to +13 Â½, and for 2-Stars from +10 to +11 Â½ points.

3 Star Selection
***RUTGERS 25 Louisville (-6.5) 21
04:30 PM Pacific, 09-Nov-06
Another battle of unbeaten teams in the Big East and the home team should come out on top again after Louisville beat West Virginia at home last Thursday. Unlike last week, when neither team could stop the other from scoring, Rutgers has a defense that can slow down the Cardinals. The Scarlet Knights have allowed just 4.1 yards per play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team. Louisville has averaged 7.5 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack) and the Cardinals are obviously the best offensive team that Rutgers has faced this season. However, the Knights did limit a potent Pitt attack to just 10 points on 236 total yards and 4.5 yppl in Pittsburgh, so they are certainly capable of slowing down Louisville today at home. Rutgers isnâ€™t much offensively, averaging just 5.3 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team), but Louisville is just 0.2 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl), so Rutgers should do a decent job of moving the ball. Where Rutgers has a real advantage is in special teams, which should give them good field position in this game. Overall, my math model favors Louisville by just 2 Â½ points in this game and another mathematical tool favors the Cardinals by 4 points. What makes Rutgers a play is not the marginal line value, but rather the situation. Louisville applies to the same negative 9-41-2 ATS unbeaten road team situation that West Virginia applied to last week in their loss at Louisville. Rutgers, meanwhile, applies to a very strong 48-13-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation at +5 or more and a 40-12-1 ATS home dog momentum situation. Also, unbeaten home underdogs (5-0 teams or better) are 24-12-1 ATS since 1980, including 12-5 ATS against an unbeaten visitor, and Rutgers will be playing with a lot of confidence in this game. Louisville hasnâ€™t played nearly as good away from home under coach Bobby Petrino (11-12-1 ATS) as they have at Papa Johnâ€™s Stadium (15-6 ATS) and the Cardinals are just 2-6 ATS as a favorite away from home against a team with a winning record. Rutgers, meanwhile, is 18-7-1 ATS as an underdog the last 4 years, including 3-0 ATS this season. Iâ€™ll take Rutgers in a 3-Star Best Bets at +5 points or more (4-Stars at +7 or more) and for 2-Stars from +3 Â½ to +4 Â½ points (strong opinion at +3).

3 Star Selection
***SMU 28 Houston (-5.0) 24
12:00 PM Pacific, 11-Nov-06
Houstonâ€™s big win last week over Tulsa was certainly impressive, but the Cougars were in a very high percentage situation. This week the Cougars are not in a good situation going on the road as a favorite after their upset win over the Hurricanes last week. Houston applies to a negative 95-186-7 ATS road letdown situation while SMU applies to a solid 84-46 ATS situation that plays on dogs coming off a win and a bye week. SMU has had two weeks to prepare for this game and their confidence is no doubt running high given their recent success at home and 5-2 record in their last 7 games overall. The Mustangs have won 6 consecutive home games in which the defense has allowed an average of just 11.2 points and SMU is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 lined games as the host. Not only is SMU in a good situation, but they are also undervalued due to their recent history of bad play. Those days are gone. The Mustangs have an efficient freshman quarterback in Justin Willis, who has completed 71% of this passes with 20 going for touchdowns against just 4 interceptions. Willis doesnâ€™t throw the ball downfield very often and he actually rates as below average on a yards per pass play scale, but the Mustangsâ€™ attack is only 0.3 yards per play worse than average. That unit should perform well against a Houston defense that has been 0.9 yppl worse than average (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average just 5.0 yppl against an average team) in 7 games since the Cougars lost their best defensive player, SS Schwartz, in their second game. Houstonâ€™s offense makes up for their poor defense by averaging 6.9 yppl (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl) and senior quarterback Kevin Kolb has thrown just 3 picks in 317 passes this season. The Cougars actually rate even higher on offense now that theyâ€™ve converted shifty receiver Anthony Alridge to running back. Alridge has averaged an incredible 11.2 ypr on 51 carries this season and the Houston offense currently rates at 1.2 yppl better than average. SMU is among the best in the nation at defending the run and theyâ€™re decent against the pass and the Mustangs rate at 0.3 yppl better than average defensively. SMU has a 2.8 points edge in special teams and my math model favors the Mustangs by Â½ a point in this game. The situation favoring SMU only applies for underdogs of 3 points or more, so Iâ€™ll take SMU in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 3-Stars at +4 points or more.

3 Star Selection
***KANSAS ST. 21 Texas (-17.0) 29
05:00 PM Pacific, 11-Nov-06
Texas has only played two true road games all season long and they barely won both of those games (by 2 points at Nebraska and by 4 points at Texas Tech). Texas has been inconsistent with their effort on the defensive side of the ball and this is a game in which I expect the Longhorns to letdown. Texas applies to a negative 17-57-3 ATS road letdown situation while Kansas State has played well in consecutive victories and they qualify in a very good 48-13-1 ATS momentum home underdog situation. There is also a more general 186-95-7 ATS home momentum situation that favors the Wildcats, who are now 69-31 ATS at home since 1990 (4-2 ATS this season). Kansas State has been hit with costly injuries to their secondary, losing top CB Baldwin in game 4 and then S Watts a couple of weeks ago, so the Wildcats have gone from a very good defensive team early this season to a slightly worse than average defense currently. However, Kansas Stateâ€™s offense has improved in their last 5 games with Josh Freeman at quarterback and Leon Patton as the main running back (413 yards at 6.1 ypr in 5 games as the main back). In those 5 games the Wildcats have averaged 5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Kansas State has been without their top receiver, Jermaine Moreira the past 2 Â½ games, but the pass attack has actually posted better numbers during that span so I felt no need to make an adjustment for that. Texas has only been 0.4 yppl better than average defensively this season, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team, and the Longhorns have allowed an average of 429 yards at 6.7 yppl in their two games as the visitor (against Nebraska and Texas Tech offensive units that would combine to average 6.6 yppl at home against an average team). My math model favors Texas by 14 Â½ points and the Longhorns are due for a letdown. Iâ€™ll take Kansas State in a 3-Star Best Bet at +16 points or more and for 2-Stars from +15 Â½ to +14 points.

2 Star Selection
**Texas El Paso 27 UAB (-2.0) 21
05:00 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-06
The Miners have now lost 3 straight games, the last of which was an upset home loss as an 8 Â½ point favorite against Rice last week. That loss should result in a turnaround this week as UTEP applies to a very strong 57-10 ATS road bounce-back situation - as long as they are pick or an underdog. It helps that UTEP is the better team in this game, as the Miners rate considerably higher on both sides of the ball. El Paso is 0.2 yards per play better than average on offense (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and 0.2 yppl worse than average on defense (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense). UAB, meanwhile, is 0.7 yppl worse than average with quarterback Chris Williams in the game and the Blazers are 0.6 yppl worse than average defensively (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team). My math model favors UTEP by 5 points in this game and the situation favoring the Miners applies at pick or dog, so Iâ€™ll take Texas El Paso in a 2-Star Best Bet at pick or as an underdog (3-Stars at +3 or more).

2 Star Selection
**BOSTON COLLEGE (-28.0) 42 Duke 6
04:00 PM Pacific, 11-Nov-06
Boston College is coming off a loss at Wake Forest and the Eagles will be looking to take out their frustrations on the lowly Blue Devils today. Boston College is 21-9 ATS after a conference loss in 10 years under coach Tom Oâ€™Brien (19-5 ATS last 24) and Oâ€™Brien rarely shows mercy at home against out-manned conference foes, going 10-1 ATS hosting conference opponents with losing records during his tenure. Boston College also applies to a 60-23 ATS big home favorite bounce-back situation as long as they are favored by 28 points or less and my math model favors the Eagles by 36 Â½ points. The Eagles are 9-3-1 ATS as a favorite of 20 points or more, so they usually get the money as a big favorite, but Iâ€™ll only play BC as a Best Bet if the 60-23 ATS situation applies. Iâ€™ll take Boston College in a 2-Star Best Bet at -28 points or less and Iâ€™ll consider the Eagles a Strong Opinion at -31 or less.

2 Star Selection
**Central Florida 34 MEMPHIS (-1.0) 26
05:00 PM Pacific, 11-Nov-06
Iâ€™ve been going against both of these teams this season but Central Florida is improving while Memphis is getting worse. UCF coach George Oâ€™Leary has started Kyle Israel at quarterback the last 3 games and the offense has responded by averaging 5.9 yards per play in those games (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team). An average attack is an improvement for the Golden Knights and Israel should have a huge day attacking a Memphis secondary that has allowed 8.0 yards per pass play this season (to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppp against an average defense). The Tigers were without 3 time All-Conference S Wesley Smith for 2 of those games, including last week, but Smith is expected to play this week and Memphis is a bit better when heâ€™s been in (but still 2.4 yppp worse than average). Overall the Tigers are 1.2 yppl worse than average defensively, so Central Florida should move the ball very well. The Memphis offense is only 0.4 yppl worse than average and they have an advantage over a Central Florida defense that is 0.8 yppl worse than average (6.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team). However, that 0.4 yppl advantage by the Memphis offense is far less than the 1.2 yppl advantage that the Knights have over the Tigersâ€™ defense. Central Florida also has better special teams and my math model favors the Knights by 7 points in this game. UCF would also apply to a solid 51-26-2 ATS bounce- back situation if they are an underdog or pick and Iâ€™ll take Central Florida in a 2- Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 3-Stars at +2 or more.

2 Star Selection
**SAN DIEGO ST. (-7.5) 32 UNLV 16
06:00 PM Pacific, 11-Nov-06
San Diego State was horrible early in the season under new coach Chuck Long, but the Aztecs are showing signs of life on both sides of the ball lately. The offense has averaged only 4.8 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team), but the Aztecs rate at 0.4 yppl better than average with their current offensive lineup. The difference is having Atiyyah Henderson at tailback since their 3rd game (601 yards at 5.1 ypr in 6 games as the main back) and having redshirt freshman Kevin Craft at quarterback the last 4 games, in which heâ€™s averaged 6.1 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Craft replaced the ineffective Darren Mougey, who took over in game 2 after veteran starter Kevin Oâ€™Connell was injured in the opener. Oâ€™Connell returned last week and threw 6 passes for 94 yards and has completed 16 of his 20 passes this season. Oâ€™Connell and Craft will both play and I expect both to have success against a porous UNLV secondary that has allowed 7.8 yppp this season to teams that would average 6.5 yppp against an average team. UNLV is 0.6 yppl worse than average overall defensively, and my math model forecasts 414 yards at 6.6 yppl for the Aztecs in this game. UNLV will have a tough time keeping up with an attack that rates at 1.0 yppl worse than average with Rocky Hinds behind center (the much more effective Shane Steichen was hurt a few weeks ago and is out for the season). San Diego Stateâ€™s defense has allowed only 4.5 yppl in their last 3 games and they are now just 0.2 yppl worse than average for the season on defense, so the Aztecs have a huge edge when UNLV has the ball too. The Rebels do have a 1.5 points edge in special teams but the math favors San Diego State by 16 Â½ points. Iâ€™ll take San Diego State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 3-Stars at -7 or less (strong opinion at -9 Â½ or -10).

2-Star Best Bet
**Pittsburgh (-7) 28 CONNECTICUT 14
12:30 PM Pacific, 11-Nov-06
Pittsburgh has lost two consecutive games to good defensive teams Rutgers and South Florida, and those losses have led to some line value on their side entering this game. The Panthers are still a very good team that has averaged 6.5 yards per play on offense (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) while allowing just 4.6 yppl (to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defense). Connecticut, meanwhile, is 0.6 yppl worse than average on offense and 0.1 yppl worse than average on defense and the Panthers have beaten mediocre teams pretty easily this season. My math model favors Pitt by 16 points in this game but conference road favorites of more than 7 points that are coming off back-to-back losses are not good bets historically against a team with the revenge motive (45-76-2 ATS), so I will insist on only making Pitt a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less. The situation against Pittsburgh is not strong enough to keep me from favoring the Panthers to cover in this game. Strong Opinion
Navy (-14.0) 32 Eastern Mich 14 (at Detroit)
10:00 AM Pacific, 11-Nov-06
Navy has always been a good bet away from home and the Midshipmen are now 35-8-1 ATS in regular season road or neutral games against teams with losing records after whipping Duke last Saturday. Navy canâ€™t throw the ball at all out of their option without injured starter Brian Hampton, but the Middies should have no trouble running their option attack against an Eastern Michigan defense that is decent defending the pass (which means very little in this game), but are horrible against the run (5.4 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.6 yprp against an average defensive team). My math model favors Navy by 14 points, so there really isnâ€™t much line value, but Iâ€™ll consider Navy a Strong Opinion at -14 points or less based on their very profitable history in this role

imgv94 · 11-09-06, 04:10 PM

HAHA 7 views in 2 minutes... Hilarious..

Lowlife***Theif · 11-09-06, 04:22 PM

Thanks!

primo_skillz · 11-09-06, 04:41 PM

There he goes with the san jose state team again, he sure does like to back them

imgv94 · 11-09-06, 04:46 PM

Guys,

Read his writeups they are very helpful..

kalmikrazy · 11-09-06, 04:56 PM

Feel alot better about RU for tonight.

Thanks IM

r2d2 · 11-09-06, 05:10 PM

disagreen with the good doc tonight. got the cards here.

Hulu · 11-09-06, 05:39 PM

I'm on Louisville tonight as well. I just don't think that Rutgers will manage enough offensive output to keep close to Louisville. Their defence will keep them in it but the Cardinals should be able to win by more than a TD.

I am noticing that Dr. Bob's plays aren't moving the lines this week like they did the last couple. Is that because of his mediocre performance last week? Are the players playing his picks more conservatively now or are the books just less afraid of his picks and not inclined to move the lines by 2 points as soon as they are released?

First we had Dr. Phil picking baseball winners...now we have Dr. Bob picking NCAA-F winners. Coincidence? I want to know what med school these guys attended!

dave11486 · 11-09-06, 07:00 PM

I kind of like Rutgers just because teams that don't belong in the Nat'l Championship usually find a way to blow it.

bigboydan · 11-09-06, 07:02 PM

Originally posted by primo_skillz

There he goes with the san jose state team again, he sure does like to back them

I mentioned that a few weeks ago myself bro. I think he plays on or against them every single week.

freeneasy · 11-09-06, 07:11 PM

thanks db

i get louisville at -6, wish i could have got em at -5 1/2
got houston at -3 and i got
pitt at -7 1/2 in a parlay, but what i dont get is bet cris had pitt at -8. maybe the reason pitt stands at -7 1/2 is when the line came out at -8 the wise guys jumped on it and bet it down to -6 1/2 -7 where his backers then proceeded to bet pitt up to 7 1/2. anybody know if pitt was ever at -6 1/2 to -7 with bet cris?
anyway thanks db

durito · 11-09-06, 07:17 PM

Originally posted by freeneasy

i get louisville at -6, wish i could have got em at -5 1/2
got houston at -3 and i got
pitt at -7 1/2 in a parlay, but what i dont get is bet cris had pitt at -8. maybe the reason pitt stands at -7 1/2 is when the line came out at -8 the wise guys jumped on it and bet it down to -6 1/2 -7 where his backers then proceeded to bet pitt up to 7 1/2. anybody know if pitt was ever at -6 1/2 to -7 with bet cris?
anyway thanks db

according to sbrlines history the lowest pitt went at cris was -7 at 11:36 Am this morning .. moved back to 7.5 15 min later.

Lowlife***Theif · 11-09-06, 07:24 PM

Originally posted by imgv94

HAHA 7 views in 2 minutes... Hilarious..

gynecologist, can you get his NFL picks also?

KROTCHECK · 11-09-06, 08:38 PM

22 too 7 LVL not looking good fr dr.bob.......Looks like my prediction is lookin alot better

Razz · 11-09-06, 11:22 PM

Originally posted by dave11486

I kind of like Rutgers just because teams that don't belong in the Nat'l Championship usually find a way to blow it.

That will be the case when Ohio State loses to Michigan.

imgv94 · 11-09-06, 11:27 PM

Originally posted by KROTCHECK

22 too 7 LVL not looking good fr dr.bob.......Looks like my prediction is lookin alot better

Krotch, you are my boy.. But even you know you jinxed it..

nosuzieno · 11-09-06, 11:39 PM

Originally posted by durito

according to sbrlines history the lowest pitt went at cris was -7 at 11:36 Am this morning .. moved back to 7.5 15 min later.

They closed on pinny at -5.5

bigboydan · 11-09-06, 11:39 PM

Originally posted by Razz

That will be the case when Ohio State loses to Michigan.

I'd love to see that myself bro. That would really throw a monkey wrench into it all.

durito · 11-09-06, 11:40 PM

Originally posted by nosuzieno

They closed on pinny at -5.5

we are talking about pitt not rutgers

kalmikrazy · 11-10-06, 12:02 AM

glad to get the win....had RU at +6 at pinny, but my capper said to go ahead and get it at +7. cost me -122 but it worth the risk.........more importantly what a game. UL penalty after the misses FG......Hereis the KRAZY scenario I came up with on 11/3.....

Here is a krazy senario:

-Rutgers beats UL next week. UL is out.
-WVU beats Rutgers week after.
-Big East is officially done.

WHICH ONE LOSS TEAM MAKES IT? IM ASSUMING ITS A SEC TEAM.....

dave11486 · 11-10-06, 01:11 AM

Originally posted by Razz

That will be the case when Ohio State loses to Michigan.

Razz, right about now I just want a challenge. At least Michigan will give it to me.

pags11 · 11-10-06, 06:23 AM

thanks for posting this imgv...

soli · 11-10-06, 09:13 AM

well he's off to a good start

primo_skillz · 11-10-06, 09:31 AM

he sure is, now lets see if he can cash the rest of his writeups

freeneasy · 11-10-06, 03:53 PM

i capped louisville/rutgers usiing different situations each time and each time i came up with louisville to beat the spread. the only place where rutgers virtully ties louisville in projected scoring is when i handicapped the last 3 games played for each team where i got
louisville 21.63
rutgers 21.50
everything else was all louisville but sometimes thats all it takes for the cover letalone the upset

boyboris · 11-11-06, 11:30 AM

Bob

Just out of curiosity, is there anyone even half as good as Dr. Bob out there? Or is he truly just the best that exists?

aca · 11-11-06, 11:32 AM

Thanks for nice infos, gyne!

Justin7 · 11-11-06, 11:40 AM

imgv -

Why do you post his plays? If you're paying for it, you're making it harder for yourself to bet them.

gummo · 11-11-06, 12:13 PM

His picks are posted all over the place Justin.

Dark Horse · 11-11-06, 11:58 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

imgv -

Why do you post his plays? If you're paying for it, you're making it harder for yourself to bet them.

It's called sharing information. Try it some day. It's a forum, so not the worst place for that.

RickySteve · 11-12-06, 01:32 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

imgv -

Why do you post his plays? If you're paying for it, you're making it harder for yourself to bet them.

He isn't paying for them.

RickySteve · 11-12-06, 01:36 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

It's called sharing information. Try it some day. It's a forum, so not the worst place for that.

It's piracy and it's illegal.

Dark Horse · 11-12-06, 02:42 AM

I was just wondering why a moderator would question someone sharing info because doing so might undermine his own bets. If we're all going to be that secretive, there's no forum left. Anyway, no big deal.

dave11486 · 11-12-06, 02:54 AM

DH is right...end of story.

**Dr. Bob's plays/writeups ending 11/11 right here***

Dr. Bob's plays/writeups ending 11/11 right here*