Clemson/South Carolina a trap game?

[Calgunner23]

Well...is it? Thoughts on the game anyone, thanks in advance.

I have Clemson -4.5 in a 4 team teaser, but that's as far as I've gone with them so far.

Thanks fellas.

[BigdaddyQH]

Highly unlikely. Dabo's record against South Carolina is a rather pathetic 1-5. Another loss to a team that lost to the Citadel would knock Clemson out of the Playoff. Who knows what the lynch mob would do to Dabo.

[navyblue81]

South Carolina is awful. Shouldn't be such a thing as a trap game when you play them. Even the Gators had no problem with them and Clemson is 10 times better than Florida.

[Mac4Lyfe]

You never, ever know in a rivalry game. USC sucks monkey nuts but these players all have played against Clemson guys. That alone provides motivation. This is USC's superbowl where I think they've waited the last few weeks for this one. I just don't see USC having enough juice to win though.

[Calgunner23]

Thanks for the input guys.

I have the following teaser. Lately, it seems that every parlay I play something unexpected happens that will kill the play. The last 4 weeks I've just been playing spreads and teasers.

13 pt monster teaser- risking $360 to win $300

New Enlgand +6 (winner)
Green Bay +4
Arizona +3
Clemson -4.5

I also like Bama -1.5 at Auburn if teased the same way. Jags at home seems juicy. Might keep riding the Bucs and Texans as well

Thoughts?

[BigdaddyQH]

Thanks for the input guys.

I have the following teaser. Lately, it seems that every parlay I play something unexpected happens that will kill the play. The last 4 weeks I've just been playing spreads and teasers.

13 pt monster teaser- risking $360 to win $300

New Enlgand +6 (winner)
Green Bay +4
Arizona +3
Clemson -4.5

I also like Bama -1.5 at Auburn if teased the same way. Jags at home seems juicy. Might keep riding the Bucs and Texans as well

Thoughts?

Parlays and teasers are sucker plays. The more teams you play, the worse the odds are for you. Let's look at your Teaser play. If you play a straight 4 team parlay, you will get 10/1 odds, which is still 31% lower than the real odds. If you hit it, you win $3600, in this case. By playing it your way, you are giving the house $3300.00 for some softer lines. That adds up to an additional 91%. Obviously you are playing NOT TO LOSE, instead of to win. That never works in the long run.

[Calgunner23]

Parlays and teasers are sucker plays. The more teams you play, the worse the odds are for you. Let's look at your Teaser play. If you play a straight 4 team parlay, you will get 10/1 odds, which is still 31% lower than the real odds. If you hit it, you win $3600, in this case. By playing it your way, you are giving the house $3300.00 for some softer lines. That adds up to an additional 91%. Obviously you are playing NOT TO LOSE, instead of to win. That never works in the long run.

Thanks for that info BigDaddy. I knew the odds were worst with every added game, but that's a lot worst than I thought. I usually just add points to dawgs I like, but I see what you mean. I'll stick to covering spreads. That's actually when I've made the most, but also have lost the most.

Sometimes they just seem too easy, and they are as I have lost maybe 2 of 10 of those 4 team teasers. But I haven't thought of all that profit I'm potentially giving up by taking points that most of the time aren't even needed. I do appreciate the number breakdown, that makes it clear as day for me.

Best of luck.

[indio]

Parlays and teasers are sucker plays. The more teams you play, the worse the odds are for you. Let's look at your Teaser play. If you play a straight 4 team parlay, you will get 10/1 odds, which is still 31% lower than the real odds. If you hit it, you win $3600, in this case. By playing it your way, you are giving the house $3300.00 for some softer lines. That adds up to an additional 91%. Obviously you are playing NOT TO LOSE, instead of to win. That never works in the long run.

You shouldn't embarrass yourself talking about things you don't understand. Parlays have higher variance, but they simply amplify the edge whether positive or negative. First off, no decent book gives only 10-1 odds on 11/10 x 4 parlays. Secondly, if I'm playing a 2 team parlay where each play is +EV, I actually INCREASE my edge playing a parlay. I introduce more variance, but It increases my edge just as much as a parlay will add to the disadvantage of -EV plays. A Teaser is really nothing more than a parlay with adjusted odds. A 4 team 13 point teaser paying 12/10 is essentially 4 games parlayed at odds of -612, or 85.95%. Hence, if the 4 games he chooses each have a 86% or higher probability of winning after a 13 point adjustment, then he has an edge on that bet (tie rules have a small impact,but that's not that important to the topic). In fact, teasers can be one of the best bets players can make since 6,7,10,or 13 point adjustments affect different games and bets differently, even though they all are adjusted by the same standard. Some players are so efficient playing teasers, that they get limited by books.

So please, refrain from discussing simple statistical math that you clearly don't understand. It only makes you look silly.