Pags' Plays

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  • pags11
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 08-18-05
    • 12264

    #1
    Pags' Plays
    Rutgers +7

    This one should be a classic Big East battle. Rutgers and Pitt both come into this game playing pretty well. I was very impressed with Rutgers performance on the road last week vs. Navy. They have also played well at So. Florida and at UNC. They boast as good of a RB duo as there is in the country in Ray Rice and Brian Leonard. QB Mike Teel has started to make better decisions as the season's gone on and utilizes his outstanding TE Clark Harris very well. Rutgers has also been very solid on the defensive side of the ball and I expect them to create havoc vs. Palko and crew here. Also give a slight coaching edge to Schiano here, although I think Wandstedt has done much better this year.

    Colorado +14

    I have followed this Colorado team pretty closely and they are a pretty amazing group. They could have given up on their season a long time ago (see MSU or Fresno St.), but they keep battling their asses off. A lot of this is due to the demeanor of their new head coach, Dan Hawkins. Hawkins has instilled that same winning attitude with these kids as he did with the kids he had a Boise St. They are a very good defensive football team and they continue to make progress on the offensive side of the ball as well. I've been impressed with the play of their offensive line too. They also have one of the best (if not the best) FG kicker in the nation in Mason Crosby. Much has been made of Adrian Peterson getting hurt, and it will definitely affect Oklahoma's game plan here as the back-up RB's for OU haven't gotten many reps this year.

    So. Miss +14

    Sucks that RB Fletcher will be out for this one as he's had himself a real nice season so far. Only saving grace is that the back-up RB started last week against Houston and did well (11 carries for 44 yards). So. Miss has been better lately on the offensive and and most always brings a good defensive effort, especially in the games vs. the big boys (they were only down 17-7 going into the fourth quarter at Florida earlier this year). So. Miss also has an outstanding FG kicker in Darren McAleb, as well as many veteran skill position players. I think they can confuse QB for Glennon into some bad decisions here. This just doesn't seem to be the same Va. Tech team of the past two years, but Va. Tech is always tough when playing at home at night. Gonna take the two TD's here and hold on for the ride.

    SMU +7

    This team just continues to play very well. They have an excellent coach in Phil Bennett, as well as one of the best freshman QB's in the nation in Justin Willis. This guy makes great decisions with the football and has a good group of skill position guys to work with. The SMU defense has also stepped it up lately and I expect more of the same this week. ECU is usually a great underdog and struggles in the role of the favorite. They've played such a difficult early season schedule, many of their players are currently banged up (including star WR Allison). I expect this one to be interesting for a half to three quarters with SMU eventually pulling away at the end.

    Nebraska +7

    I'm hoping that the 100,000 fans at Nebraska are very loud on Saturday morning. There's no doubt in my mind that this Nebraska offense will be able to put up points in this game. The key will be the front seven of Nebraska holding up and putting freshman QB McCoy (who's had an excellent season to date) into some third and longs and some potential bad decisions. I also expect Coach Callahan's offensive gameplan to be much different than it was vs. USC earlier in the year. Gonna take the TD and hold onto my seat here.

    Tulane +32

    I still think this Tulane team is pretty underrated. They move the football and their QB Ricard is really starting to get in a rythym. The also boast one of the more underrated RB's in the country in Matt Forte. Thsese two guys have aspirations of playing at the next level and will be extremely fired up going into this game to prove to the scouts they can play vs. the Auburn defense. I expect Auburn to play plenty of their subs to rest up from last week's battle with Florida (especially RB Irons and QB Cox) in anticipation of finishing the rest of the year strong. Am thinking this will be a lot closer than most people think.

    UCLA +14

    Word is that QB Cowan has his voice back and will play in this one. UCLA has a very good defense and I've been impressed with Cowan's decision making in limited time this year. He went into a hostile environment last week and once he settled down he did fine. I expect UCLA to come out primed and ready for this one and we might see a little rust from Notre Dame after their week off. I think UCLA can be physical on defense and keep this game in the 20's, even having a chance to win it at the end. Key players to keep an eye on (other than Quinn, Walker and Smardzja) are RB Chris Markey and kicker Justin Medlock (one of the top in the country). Also remember that ND has trouble kicking FG's, so they will have to penetrate deep into UCLA territory or come up with a bunch of big plays (which could be hard to come by in this one).

    Special thanks this week to buddybear, razz and IMGV. Our conference calls every couple days are great and really help me get educated on these games. GL to them and everyone else this week.

    pags11
  • imgv94
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-16-05
    • 17192

    #2
    Great stuff bro.. It was great talking to you and Razz today on the phone we really put a microscope on these games and shared some opinions.. Well expecting another big day out of you bud, good luck!!!

    And feel free to call me if you ever need a second opinion on a game or anything bro... Stay cool!!!!!!!!!!!
    Comment
    • pags11
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 08-18-05
      • 12264

      #3
      thanks IMGV...we'll be in touch during the weekend for sure bro...BOL to you as well this weekend...
      Comment
      • hawk 5
        SBR MVP
        • 09-12-06
        • 3982

        #4
        GL pags, on different side on the Neb. game but that line ought to be close. Really like that Colo play, got me thinking.
        Comment
        • LVHerbie
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 09-15-05
          • 6344

          #5
          pag... haven't looked at all these plays but I follow the big 12 pretty close and I really think Nebraska is still a least one year away from competing with Texas... Also, I've watched all the NU games this year and, for whatever reason, Callahan has been really, really conservative on offense all year... The game plan has been basically get up by a touchdown or two and start running out the clock... I thought they would bring it all out against USC earlier but instead the plan was to shorten the game... Callahan has said the goal for the year is to win the north and then take on the championship game and a bowl game after that... I think this translate into a similar game to USC...

          Also, Nebraska's secondary is very weak right now, with injuries and such, and while this hasn't been exposed against the rest of their softer competition I think Texas can and will take full advantage of this...

          Having said all this I think Callahan's game plan is going to continue to be very conservative and hope for a couple breaks to keep the game close... But, since this is football, the breaks can go either way this could translate into a Texas blow out too... As much as it pains me to admit it I think Texas wins this one by at least a couple tds...

          I also don't like the OU play as I feel if AD (all done?) was playing they would be favored by like 18 or 19... I don't think Peterson is worth this many points, but then again I've always thought he was overrated...

          Anyhow, as always, best of luck and I will look at a couple of your other games later today...
          Comment
          • Noles2006
            SBR Rookie
            • 09-26-06
            • 21

            #6
            Best of luck this weekend, pags, but I don't think you'll need it!
            Comment
            • bigboydan
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 08-10-05
              • 55420

              #7
              I'm with you on your Nebraska play bro.
              Comment
              • maritime
                SBR Sharp
                • 10-26-05
                • 474

                #8
                Pags, appreciate the writeups. I was wondering if you like all these games the same, or do you like some more than others...ie. which are your "best bets."
                Comment
                • Philavanh
                  SBR MVP
                  • 08-18-06
                  • 2800

                  #9
                  Like always.........Nice write up Pags, I"m with u on Rutgers and Tulane, I consider those top 7 picks, good luck to ya!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
                  Comment
                  • dave11486
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 02-25-06
                    • 999

                    #10
                    Remember when you were in school and the teacher was like yes that is the answer, but why is it the answer. Well pags, your whys are looking good, so I hope for the best dude.
                    Comment
                    • primo_skillz
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 09-15-06
                      • 706

                      #11
                      Lovin' these plays. Thinking about playing all of them. Any thoughts about tonight? No favs for the weekeend....
                      Comment
                      • r2d2
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 09-07-06
                        • 434

                        #12
                        pags, really am starting to like the UCLA play myself this week. I am actually considering a small ml play on UCLA here, maybe a 1/2 unit. I am on the other side with PITT from you, but other than that good luck this week.
                        Comment
                        • Wassymac
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-22-06
                          • 1090

                          #13
                          Originally posted by LVHerbie
                          I also don't like the OU play as I feel if AD (all done?) was playing they would be favored by like 18 or 19... I don't think Peterson is worth this many points, but then again I've always thought he was overrated...
                          Just had to comment...I don't follow the Big 12 like you do I'm sure Herbie but Peterson is one of the most impressive college RBs I've ever seen. Don't think I've heard anyone call him overrated...really not sure how he could be IMO.
                          Comment
                          • Razz
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 08-22-05
                            • 5632

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Wassymac
                            Just had to comment...I don't follow the Big 12 like you do I'm sure Herbie but Peterson is one of the most impressive college RBs I've ever seen. Don't think I've heard anyone call him overrated...really not sure how he could be IMO.
                            I do follow the Big 12, and I've watched every game AD has played since he came to Oklahoma. He is THE most impressive running back I've ever seen in college football. This kid would have been in the upper echelon of NFL backs when he was a freshman, and I think (if he goes to a team with a real offensive line) he is going to the Pro Bowl as a rookie.
                            Comment
                            • pags11
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 08-18-05
                              • 12264

                              #15
                              guys, thanks for the kind words...maritime, for the week I'll be playing all of these at the same size units (my units vary based on whether it's the beginning, middle or end of the season...
                              Comment
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