hedge advice needed, oregon +800

[tiberiusdush]

So after having my worst cfb betting year yet i still can manage to get some decent profit because i manage to place oregon to take home the throne at +800

100 to win 800

should i still hedge the championship game and how much? I kinda need this win to be big and dont really want to cut into my potential profits. Plus i feel pretty good about the ducks winning this thing

what u guys think

[scottgodson1985]

bet some ohio state +7, and some ohio st. ml, and osu ml parlay with the over.

[Cookie Monster]

The "correct" hedge answer is this: Supposing you get Ohio St moneyline at best price +230. Calculate the amount bet that makes indifferent who wins (answer is risk $273). Math is pretty easy (800-x=2.3x-100, then 3.3x=900, x=273). A $527 profit.


After that, think you are offered Oregon -230. How much would you place at such good price, if there is not a previous bet?. If you would place to win $50 on such bet, then underhedge by $50.


But the really correct answer is: Do not hedge unless you see Ohio St +230 as +EV, or a huge part of your bankroll is tied on this bet. If you hedge, you are paying the vig twice (once when placed the future, again when hedging). So, hedging is usually bad with the two exceptions I just stated.

[jgbgsox]

I would wait too see how the game is going and make a live bet if needed or halftime but I don't think u will need to imo Oregon wins