Homer Pick Alert - Arkansas Upsets Bammer

[DerekMadden]

The more I study this game, the more I think Arkansas is primed for the upset.
After watching Alabama play Florida and Ole Miss.. I'm willing to say this.


I really feel like Arkansas's Defense which currently sits 9th in passes defended (4th in Passes Broken Up) is much improved and with the added pressure they will be able to put on Blake Simms, they'll be able to force plenty of bad throws / interceptions.


Head to Head.

Offense:
Arkansas OLine > Ole Miss
Arkansas Rb's > Ole Miss
Arkansas QB >>> Ole Miss

Defense:
Arkansas DLine > Ole Miss
Arkansas Secondary > Ole Miss

Added Bonus:
Arkansas Stadium is MUCH MUCH MUCH louder than Ole Miss.
(Saban said after the game that the loudness was definitely a factor in the game)


If/When the hogs get some push upfront you'll start to see the Bama Dline wear down much like they did at the end of the Ole Miss game.


Like I said in the title, this is a homer pick.. but I do think Arkansas has the ability to win by multiple scores in this game. Assuming they actually complete a 4th quarter in an SEC game.

[sandman0713]

You may be right in this one. Should be a really great game anyways. Just knowing that these bama kids will have an entire week of practice under saban, after a loss...that caused me to stay away. Great coaches rebound from losses in a huge way usually. That said...tough place to go play this week. I will be watching this one for sure. Gl to your hogs...hope they pull it out.

[luckyutah]

Just knowing that these bama kids will have an entire week of practice under saban, after a loss...that caused me to stay away. Great coaches rebound from losses in a huge way usually.

I would normally think this too, but I heard Saban actually has a poor ATS after a straight up loss. Anyone have this info.?

[grease lightnin]

Been looking at this game. Moved to 11

[zola]

I like the Hogs against the number but I'm just not convinced they know how to FINISH a game yet. Not only the players but the coaches too. They can't play "not to lose" like they did in the 4th against A&M.

Finishing a game in the SEC is a game in and of itself.

[Renegades]

Ark d line better than ole miss d line???? Is that a joke? C'mon man

[DerekMadden]

Ark d line better than ole miss d line???? Is that a joke? C'mon man

Deatrich Wise > Fadol Brown
Trey Flowers > CJ Johnson
Taiwan Johnson < Nkemdiche (maybe)
Darius Philon > Hamilton Woodrow

The only one you could legitimately make a case for would be Nkemdiche for Taiwan Johnson.

[Magnolia Slim]

Ole Miss has a better D line, arky has a better O line than om..

[Shocked]

Spot on Arkansas takes it. Alabama fans play in traffic after the loss. Double win, less Bama fans and we get paid!$$$$

[eeezzzz]

Ole miss D line and secondary muuuuuch better.

[fried cheese]

"Arkansas QB >>> Ole Miss"

teams are just looking to stop the run and he cant even hit 60 percent of his passes. ole miss defense is far superior also.

[brewcrew2k]

Did you factor in who your coach is?

[Wayne2]

True Homer

no aspect of Ark D is better than OM, nor is your QB. I am an OM homer I will admit.

We got on track and then whipped Boise ST. No big deal
We annihilated Vandy at Vandy. No big deal
Destroyed ULL. Again, no big deal
We whipped Memphis, covered, despite many TOs. Bigger deal. Memphis gave UCLA a run for the money, and they are a sharp favorite. Not a bad team at all.
Beat bama on the field and on the scoreboard.

Glad you are excited about your team's improvement. Glad you are excited about your chances. But try to get a handle on yourself. Your defense does not compare to OM. I look forward to proving that when we meet in LR

Bama will whip you.

[DerekMadden]

no aspect of Ark D is better than OM, nor is your QB. I am an OM homer I will admit.

We got on track and then whipped Boise ST. No big deal
We annihilated Vandy at Vandy. No big deal
Destroyed ULL. Again, no big deal
We whipped Memphis, covered, despite many TOs. Bigger deal. Memphis gave UCLA a run for the money, and they are a sharp favorite. Not a bad team at all.
Beat bama on the field and on the scoreboard.

Glad you are excited about your team's improvement. Glad you are excited about your chances. But try to get a handle on yourself. Your defense does not compare to OM. I look forward to proving that when we meet in LR

Bama will whip you.

Care to back any of that up with stats? Your secondary is better than Arkansas's? Please help me out...

[Wayne2]

OK Piggie-boy

Passing yards given up per game?

OM - 152.4
AR - 263.8

Let's try Running yards

OM - 125.2
AR - 139.4

Let's try points

OM - 10.2
AR - 25.8

It's school time. Go to class.

[DerekMadden]

OK Piggie-boy

Passing yards given up per game?

OM - 152.4
AR - 263.8

Let's try Running yards

OM - 125.2
AR - 139.4

Let's try points

OM - 10.2
AR - 25.8

It's school time. Go to class.

Strength of schedule. What team have you played with any actual offensive capability?

[jtoler]

Ark dont play defense they aint beating Bama, offense stalled late against A&M too.

[Magnolia Slim]

Strength of schedule. What team have you played with any actual offensive capability?

Memphis has lit up everybody but put up 3 vs Ole Miss, will wait to see how you spin this..

[Magnolia Slim]

Ark dont play defense they aint beating Bama, offense stalled late against A&M too.

They haven't played defense in years.. They have a very solid o line with two very good running backs and two good receivers.. Bama's d held ole miss' offense in check for 3.5 quarters for the most part and om has a bunch of good weapons on offense.. Better games on board and I won't play it but lean bama..

[Magnolia Slim]

Will be lookin at over yards rushing for yeldon prop..

[NardVa]

I thought Arkansas had a chance to beat Bama if Ole Miss didn't get the win. Arkansas is catching Bama in a bad spot. Plus Arkansas hasn't won a Sec game in 2 years and have not beat Bama in 20 years (don't know the specific years but you get my point.)

[Wayne2]

Strength of schedule. What team have you played with any actual offensive capability?

Teacher getting tired of teaching you grasshopper.

AL - #10 in total yards per game. They averaged 42 points per game before OM, score 17 on us
Boise - 25th total yards. They average 35 points per game.
Memphis - 60th total yards, but take out OM game, they average 43.75 points per game....3 on OM

Small sampling, but one could surmise their ranking would be much higher had they not played OM already. Anyway....class over grasshopper...dismissed!

[DerekMadden]

Teacher getting tired of teaching you grasshopper.

AL - #10 in total yards per game. They averaged 42 points per game before OM, score 17 on us
Boise - 25th total yards. They average 35 points per game.
Memphis - 60th total yards, but take out OM game, they average 43.75 points per game....3 on OM

Small sampling, but one could surmise their ranking would be much higher had they not played OM already. Anyway....class over grasshopper...dismissed!

Okay, now my turn.
Auburn: #25 ypg
Texas Tech: #33 ypg
Northern Illinois: #35 ypg
Texas A&M: #3 ypg

Auburn: #15 ppg
Texas Tech: #69 ppg
Northern Illinois: #62 ppg
Texas A&M: #3 ppg

You're right.. there is a small sample, but we have played a tougher schedule with more elite offenses. That's all I'll say.


EDIT: We've only played 2 home games so far this year also and 1 game was not included in those stats because it's Nicholls.

[Smutbucket]

Arkansas Defensive Line Sack % ranked 125th. Bama Offensive line sack % is ranked 11th. No, I do not think Arkansas will put pressure on Blake Sims and create a lot of interceptions/poor throws

they sit back and try to bat down passes....look how they lost to texas a and m, put 0 hurries on hill...it showed last week that you put pressure on hill and he crumbles....

they may cover but that with the coaching edge I don't see a way Arkansas wins

[Magnolia Slim]

Arkansas Defensive Line Sack % ranked 125th. Bama Offensive line sack % is ranked 11th. No, I do not think Arkansas will put pressure on Blake Sims and create a lot of interceptions/poor throws

they sit back and try to bat down passes....look how they lost to texas a and m, put 0 hurries on hill...it showed last week that you put pressure on hill and he crumbles....

they may cover but that with the coaching edge I don't see a way Arkansas wins

ole miss did not get much pressue on sims at all..

[2daBank]

bama struggles with fast teams that spread you out. what part of that resembles razorbacks who rely on their rushing attack? they set up perfect for bama's defense take out some frustration.. 104-0 last 2 years, 557 rushing yards for bama, 223 for ark.. bama's defense will have no problem limiting if not totally shutting down what ark wants to do. this gm sets up as a straight up ass whipping..