It would very appreciated if I could get some feedback on the Nebraska at Michigan State game, as the line is -8.5 and I just feel the defense of the Spartans can shut down the running game of the Cornhuskers, but I do not see Nebraska completely shutting down the Michigan State offense. Want to make the play but looking to see if I am missing anything before I do. The line opened on Vegas Insider at -7.
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I've been looking at this game as well. This game and the Stanford/Notre Dame game intrigue me very much. I'm surprised the line opened as high as it did. But the fact that it opened where it did and went up as quickly as it did tells me that Michigan State will at least win the game...This should be a very good game because Nebraska's run game wears down opponents. I see Michigan State being more susceptible to running games that are speed based as opposed to teams that just wanna run down your throat. Because of this, I dont see an advantage Nebraska has, and MSU should come out on top as well as cover late.Comment -
This is my sentiments exactly.Comment -
I am probably in the minority on this one, but I think Nebraska keeps it close.
That is a big number.... it is a night game, in East Lansing.. that has to be worth 3-4 points right there, the question becomes... how much of a difference is there between the two teams?
I'd take the number in this one just because Nebraska I think they will be able to move the ball.Comment -
and see that is where I am hung up as I do not think they can against the defensive line and the linebacking crew of the Spartans. I am stuck on it in my head, so that is why I made the post. I at times get caught in tunnel vision. Thanks Sam for commenting.Comment -
i have been eyeing this game for awhile...a few things...Nebraskas defense is horrible Miami with a freshman qb hung 31 points on Nebraska....also Nebraska hasn't played anyone the illini played with their backup qb last week....msu hasn't played anyone either besides Oregon in which everyone forgets they were winning that game at halftime....nebraskas qb is turnover prone also....msu is a very good team there qb is very solid....I would take msu all day the line is higher than thought but I would bet msuComment -
Thanks JJJ! Very good insight and very much appreciated!
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I haven't been impressed by the Nebraska defense at all, and that was with a home crowd behind them. Connor Cook can scoot and they (mobile QB's) have traditionally given Pelini's defense fits. That, combined with a rocking home stadium under the lights, and a defense that can hold their own, gives Sparty a sizable advantage in my opinion. Yes, it's a relatively big number, but it has the makings of a game that simply gets away from Nebraska at some point and results in a double digit victory for MSU.Comment -
This is going to be a slaughter MSU is beyond better than Nebraska in every aspect besides the run I'm a Badger fan and follow B1G diehard it's gunna be a blowout. I'd shit myself if this was close I think MSU would blowout my Badgers to if that says anything.Comment -
Very much appreciated your thoughts and excellent comments!
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I'm not sure how to do this but what would it be on a $100 bet to sell points and take MSU -16.5Comment -
You will have to direct that question to your SportsbookComment -
Didn't Nebraska almost lose to mcneese st.Comment -
Tough call. I had this game at MSU -6, maybe -7. I think many who follow the B10 would argue that Spartans are the best team in the conf. I think they are lucky to catch Nebraska at home. Prime time under the lights on ABC.
Adullah playing lights out. I was catching some of the Illini game. They pulled him maybe in the 3rd, look like he took a hit to the knee. They did have a big lead and smart to rest. I'm sure he's fine. They inserted another young buck, Imani Cross and he gashed the paper tiger Illini D for another 100 +yds.
Huskers benefited from 3 brutal picks by Illini backup Otoole. Might have been a different game with Lunt. That kid can throw. Illini blows though.
Both of these times have played mostly lower tier teams, besides 1 game. MSU looked great against Ducks until the 2nd half. They had a couple picks and plays that really turned the mojo for ducks. Adullah gashed Cane D. Basically the only half way decent team they've played + they got them at home.
From what little stats we have MSU is more balanced on offense. Maybe Huskers can rumble on the ground, but Sparty rush D pretty stout. They will game plan that Huskers have to beat them from the air. Cook threw those two killer picks against Oregon, but he's been rock solid since. Leads B10 with TDs (11). Armstrong Jr is kind of a wild card.
This could be a tight came. I lean Spartans at home, but undefeated Huskers not getting a lot of respect. I wonder if this game might go higher. It hit 10 early and dipped back down. Sparty has always been pretty good to me. Respect for Coach Dantonio. Not a big fan of Pelini.
Will have to look at this closer. Lot of great games this Sat. gl with your pkComment -
Thank you my friend, and as always!
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I have watched msu twice this year. People laugh at the big 10...myself included I guess...but that is a really solid football team. IF I was to bet it I would have to take msu.Comment -
As a lifelong skers fan. I think they will win every game. But a few of the other posts are correct the D is highly suspect. Will give up points. Hopefully not the 70 they gave up to the badgers. But the offense is outstanding. Abdullah will get his yards. The big question is the QB and the fumbles. And if he can get the ball to westerkamp. Best receiver in the big 10. He's like the kid abudjerus. Way wrong spelling. But the kid from Wisconsin last year. All that BS being said my local had sparty. -6. I put 2.2 units on sparty. Should be a great game. Bol my friend. Go big redComment -
Excellent comment! Cheers to ya my friend for your contribution, and good luck this weekend!
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Urban I'm waiting on the total. All Msu games have gone over so far. Totals have been low. I think the total comes in around 58.5 or possibly lower. I grabbed the line at -9.5 when I saw it. I see a late td to cover by Msu and the over. Like 38-24.Comment -
Thank you, very good information, and I hope there are many trips to the pay window for you this week!
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I like the over in this game. I wouldn't be surprised to see line at 70
the total number for this game is about 76 to 79 easy.Comment -
As my name implies, I am a Husker fan, but that doesn't affect how I bet. Personally, I'd make the line -10.5 MSU before making any adjustments. My comments are as follows:
MSU defense is not as good as it was last year. They are particularly weak in the back 4 and against the deep ball. Tommy Armstrong throws the deep ball pretty well and Nebraska has two big athletic receivers (K. Bell and J. Westerkamp) that will beat most average DBs, including MSU's. MSU has a good DL that is likely to be at least deeper with the likely return of two injured players this week. That said, Nebraska has historically always been able to run against MSU, even last year with MSU's fantastic 2013 defense with Nebraska's horribly injury depleted 2013 offensive line. Last year Nebraska put up more yards than MSU did, but lost in large part because of 5 turnovers (at least three of which were stupid mistakes and not "forced" at all) and at least two of those started MSU within the red zone; points off turnovers for MSU were like 17. So I think Nebraska is going to put up some points.
The real question will be Nebraska's D against the MSU offense. MSU looks to have improved its offense at least as much as their defense has regressed. Nebraska started the year with a thin but talented defense, but then got hit by some injuries. Those injuries have hurt the most at LB. MSU will be able to run against Nebraska at least an average amount, possibly more. The D line has been more consistent the last few games with Randy Gregory's return to full health (limited action first three games and 4.5 sacks last two games). Gregory will at least occasionally draw double teams and help the DL get a better rush on the QB, which will take some pressure off the thin secondary. Nebraska, and other cover 2 defenses, have historically given MSU offenses significant troubles.
In short, if Nebraska takes care of the ball and gets some early points, it will at least keep the game close. That, however, is a big if. Nebraska has far too many years of negative net turnovers for it to be merely a matter of bad luck. They have been talking a lot about taking care of the ball, and this year has definitely been better, but there are still too many stupid turnovers to beat a good to great team. Additionally, Bo Pelini has never, in my opinion, had his teams step up for a big game. I don't remember a Pelini team ever winning a game when they were more than a TD dog (may have happened, I just don't remember it).
I would not give MSU an added edge for this game being at home under the lights. First, Nebraska has already played three straight games at night. The game day routine for a night game is different than for a day game, and that familiarity must have at least some counter-benefit for Nebraska. Second, Nebraska always has tons of fans make it to road games. I expect a huge Nebraska contingent to be at the game (refer to the last Nebraska game at Notre Dame as an example; the entire stadium was red). There were still over 1000 tickets available for the game as of this morning, so any Nebraska fan who wants to go can find easy face value tickets for sale. This is the biggest game of the year for Nebraska fans, so it likely to draw as many Nebraska fans as any road game.
In short, my numbers say to take MSU -7, which is where the line is as of this writing, or definitely at -6.5 if it moves that far (as it is -7 -105 a couple of places, that could happen, but seems unlikely because the books will be dangerously exposed to a costly middle). Nebraska matches up well against MSU, however, in terms of strengths vs. weaknesses, etc. Given that, if Nebraska takes care of the ball (a big IF), and if Pelini and staff don't do something ridiculously stupid (which is not out of the question) then Nebraska has a very good chance of keeping the game close.Comment -
HuskerExpat, thank you for your excellent feedback and best of luck to you this week in getting to the pay window, and through the rest of the year!
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I'll be at the game. Lean msu if you get -7, might like the over as the best play depending on the numberComment -
I am looking at the total on this one, I have it at 58 at betcris and I feel it might go higher.
Jumpin on the overComment -
Uh oh, I'm beginning to feel like too many people are crowding into one side of the boat... and you know what happens when they do.Comment -
I am in the same position as when I started the thread, torn between do I play it or not, so the possibility of me playing it are slim.Comment -
Urban,
Im a former college football player and Husker fan. I will keep it short and sweet. If you can get MSU under 7 play it all day long. Anything over 7 and you have to take Nebraska. The only extra bit of help I can offer is our linebackers are a complete joke. The injury bug hit them hard and I feel that none of our starters now belong on a division 1 two deep depth chart. They read and react very slowly. With experience i'm sure they will get better, but as of right now they are holding the defense back. It is all about what number you can get. If you can get under 7 you should be golden.Comment -
Anything in single didgets take msuComment -
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In the entire year, I think this thread has been the most informative thread of them all. Much appreciate the comments of you all, and those of you who I have had no contact with previously, feel free to stop by my thread any time. Last year it was the most productive thread on the forum, but I have been slacking this year, so it is not as informative, it is not saying it can't be with a little more effort by myself. After the comment above by bods72 I think I am going to play MSU if the number is right, and I will definitely buy it down to put into what I refer to as my "Fun Parlay Plays", which made me have a very successful season last year. Here is a link to the thread.
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Msu/over teaser for me, wouldn't bet it if I wasn't gonna be there but I'll be blacked out with some of my best friends from college so why notComment -
Don't listen to Urban... he's just trying to give you the lip service because you're a new face around these parts.
That was certainly a non-answer and you should be ashamed for such reprehensible actions. Showing up in a football thread and delicately dancing along the fence of equivocation is no way to go through life. It's back to the drawing board for you, I'm afraid. Next time you sit down for an SBR breakfast, perhaps you could go easy on the "waffles."
I'm telling you this because it's time to grow up and be a man. That tenure at community college as the backup placeholder does not make you a man. Having a clear, bold, and concise opinion on the Neb/Sparty game is what makes a man... and that's where you come up short.
I'm disappointed in you Bods, and I'm sure the OP is too. He even expressed his disappointment on his facebook wall. But that's neither here nor there. He applauded your effort because he's grooming you. And when I say "grooming," I mean less in the dog trimming sense, and more in the "To Catch a Predator" sense. Now listen, I'm not saying he's using cajolery to get in your pants (although I'm not saying he's not, either) but just that he wants to curry favor with you and lure you over to his thread, where he will strip you of your dignity, and ultimately, all of your accrued SBR betpoints.
You may think that's preposterous, but he's in league with some of the shadow people who manipulate the inner workings of SBR, with nefarious goals in mind. He has a setup here where he can get away with doing anything to anybody who enters his thread... that's why you have to read the fine print.
Happy trails friend, and you're welcomeComment -
Good humor,
continue to take your meds.
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I don't think you need to tell him what to do, Urban. He doesn't need meds, just a little seasoning in the forums and he'll have it down in no time.
Encourage him to pick a side... that's something that comes from within, not a medicine cabinet.Comment
