A note on revenge games in college football...

[pags11]

OK, I've made similiar statements about a "revenge" game in my posts as many are making with some games this week (i.e. UCLA vs. Arizona)...everytime I read these I have to think, OK this other team kicked their ass last year, and then this year they are just supposed to turn around and get their ass kicked by the other team?...I just don't get it...people said the same thing about Fresno and Nevada (Nevada covered)...same thing about Florida vs. Alabama (luckily I covered with Florida, but Alabama played them very tough for 55 mins.)...my point is, usually when a team gets their ass whipped there are certain match-up problems another team presents...I just don't understand the reasoning behind people picking the other sides of these games the following year, in that the game's a lot more likely to be close than it is to be a blow-out, considering how last year's game went...

now, UCLA may very well cover tommorrow, but I think if you can track the majority of these types of revenge games, you will see the dog cover at a 55-60% clip...just my thoughts...GL this weekend...

[Dark Horse]

Depends on what type of revenge. Most of the time revenge is overrated, but at times it can be huge. This is from Marc Lawrence's playbook (5* best bet) about the game you mention:

"This is certainly one of the teams that came up in UCLA offseason team meetings. The Bruins suffered just two losses last season with Arizona delivering the maximum amount of humiliation. UCLA went into the desert undefeated at 8-0 and laid nine against the Cats. Before the night was over, Arizona had 52 points and cruised to a 36-point win, its largest margin of victory in a conference game in 22 years. UCLA is still hearing the Over Rated chants. This year, however, they have assembled a solid defense (3rd best in the land), one that is a full 137 yards superior to the Wildcats. They also own the superior ground game with a huge 3.5 net YPR advantage. With Zona just 1-7 ATS as road dogs of more than 10 points, we'll look the Bruins way today. Payback in Westwood."

[Razz]

I think it's all relative. The Fresno/Nevada situation was totally different than the Florida/Alabama situation. This year's Nevada team is probably better than Fresno, while Florida is head and shoulders better than Alabama. But more importantly, Fresno wasn't furious with Nevada - we both know Pat Hill was more worried about Oregon the next week - but Florida was showing clips of DJ Hall doing the Gator chomp, and my friends that like Florida (small sampling, only 3) had been talking about this game since the moment they beat Tennessee.
Bottom line: revenge matters, but only in certain situations. It's up to us to determine whether the revenge is relevant, or if one team is simply better, and has matchup advantages.

[bigboydan]

Depends on what type of revenge. Most of the time revenge is overrated, but at times it can be huge. This is from Marc Lawrence's playbook (5* best bet) about the game you mention:

marc lawrence is a dolt! why don't you ask him how his win/loss record is in his playbooks selections over the last 5 years.


now getting back to the revenge factor question.

I think the revenge factor is a big advantage if your a dog bettor. because, that does add an eliment to into your capping. thats something books won't really factor into a line IMO

[Dark Horse]

LOL Good to know. Especially because he does give free picks on the SBR home page.

Quoted him because I agree with his analysis of that game. As to his record, why even care? Some insights can be useful in capping a game, others may not be. All about cherry picking.

[pags11]

razz,

you make a point about Fresno vs. Nevada, but I have many friends in Fresno and they wanted to blow Nevada out, bad...they all wore shirts that said "Bad Blood."...again, my point is that in one year these teams don't change that much that a team can go from being blown out, to blowing a team out (Nevada and Alabama are examples...yeah Florida tried piling it on at the end, but Bama along with Nevada played very tough in both of those games)...