improved and deteriorating teams......

Vegas39 · 07-24-14, 12:05 AM

Cal in for rough year in my opinion. Aside from Sacramento State can't see a game I'd say they win

Urbanwildlife · 07-24-14, 02:17 AM

Originally posted by Vegas39

Cal in for rough year in my opinion. Aside from Sacramento State can't see a game I'd say they win

I posted about this in the thread titled "Post Your Week 1 Picks", when I broke down this game. California is going to be in the same position they were in last year when they had a one win season. Yes, they will be able to move the ball, but they have a weak offensive line, and a defense that is invisible.

SamDiamond · 07-24-14, 06:36 AM

Virginia is going to struggle.

I can't see them improving much.

And Kansas?

Why will they be better?

BigdaddyQH · 07-24-14, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by Vegas39

Cal in for rough year in my opinion. Aside from Sacramento State can't see a game I'd say they win

I really see no reason to disagree with that statement. They do play colorado at home, but that appears to be the only legitimate shot at winning a Pac 12 Conference game they have.

BigdaddyQH · 07-24-14, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by SamDiamond

Virginia is going to struggle.

I can't see them improving much.

And Kansas?

Why will they be better?

I agree. I think a big part of the reason why we will not see much, if ay improvment in these teams is because of the terrible head coaches each team has. Virginia HC London has had on winning season (8-5) and has a composit record of 18-31 over 4 years. His teams have gone 6-16 in the past two years. Can anyone tell me why he is still coaching there?

Fat Charlie has not done much better at Kansas. In two years his teams have won a total of 4 games. He has won 1 Big 12 games during that time, and that was against a terrible West Virginia team at home last season. I hope that Kansas demands a decent season from this clown. A head coach with a 39-47 creer recoed really deserves no special attention.

wildcorndog · 07-24-14, 02:20 PM

Ur the worst poster on this board.

wildcorndog · 07-24-14, 02:21 PM

Bama
LSU
Auburn

Everyone else

Vegas39 · 07-24-14, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

I really see no reason to disagree with that statement. They do play colorado at home, but that appears to be the only legitimate shot at winning a Pac 12 Conference game they have.

Have to agree , though still lean Colorado in that one

SamDiamond · 07-24-14, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by wildcorndog

Bama
LSU
Auburn

Everyone else

Figures.

Our village fuking idiot returns.

Cornie, I was hoping you tied the rope. Same 12 year old shit with you.. "Alabama, LSU..."

Fuking idiot.

BigdaddyQH · 07-24-14, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by SamDiamond

Figures.

Our village fuking idiot returns.

Cornie, I was hoping you tied the rope. Same 12 year old shit with you.. "Alabama, LSU..."

Fuking idiot.

Not much doubt about that. He get's his tail kicked every season. His Louisiana education really stands out. He is so stupid that it is hard to believe that they allow idiots like him to post. It will be fun kicking his tail again this season.

gojetsgomoxies · 07-25-14, 05:12 PM

i like kansas due to tons of returning starters, good recruiting classes, seem to see their name alot more in JuCo recruiting...

this is improvement vis-a-vis ATS and betting not that they will actually do anything in big 12.......

fyi, i see jake heaps has transferred to miami(fl). less distraction and i didn't expect him to start anyway.

thx for the heads-up on cal... that's definitely a program that could regress long-term a long way after new TB OC (name escapes me at moment) left. were doormats before him. tedford (it just came to me)

gonna peruse the returning starter lists. those were absolute gold (75%+ ATS) last year. alot of years they have been 50% +/- a few percent (depending on interpretation)...

Renegades · 07-26-14, 06:52 AM

How many returning starters are you basing those ATS numbers on?

BigdaddyQH · 07-26-14, 11:05 AM

It is very difficult to base anything on what you may think the lines will be, because you simply have no idea of what other people are doing unless the line happens to be one of the GOY's. Kansas does not have any of those, as far as I know. Last season they went 4-7 ATS. Kansas should be good on the defensive side of the ball, but only return 5 starters on offense, and have lost two second team players already. If the defense can hold up, Kansas will have a shot at covering their share of games.

Ralphie Halves · 07-27-14, 02:32 AM

Ones that haven't been mentioned yet. I agree with a lot of the ones here.

Improving - Michigan, Maryland, Houston, Nevada, Texas State

Declining - Definitely West Virginia. My prediction is that Holgorsen will get canned and become a sought-after OC for a team in 2015. Georgia disappoints even when they're loaded, and they're not as loaded this year IMO. I think Boise made a bad hire, and this is where the decline gains momentum.

Side notes: Arkansas will be well improved NEXT year I think. This year could still be brutal for them. And I'm not on the Arizona State bandwagon. They have to show me a shred of consistency first.

Ralphie Halves · 07-27-14, 02:35 AM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

deteriorating teams (similar incomplete logic):

buffalo, fresno state, stanford, rice, UCF, wake forest, sjsu, ASU, OK State

I can't see how Wake can't go up this year. Grobe was so stale, any change is worth a couple more wins IMO. David Baliff is the freakin MAN, Rice will play above their water mark as long as he's there. The rest of yours I like.

BigdaddyQH · 07-27-14, 11:53 AM

Wake will have a ton of problems on offense this season. They only return three starters and had to move a WR to QB. This offense was the worst in the ACC last season and they lose their starting QB, two WR's and their RB. The defense will have to play super human to get these guys back to a bowl game. They will be lucky to equal last year's 4 win total.

Michigan's defense should improve, and it's ailing offense is going to need that. Still, with games at Notre Dame, Northwestern, Michigan State and Ohio State, plus the fact that Michigan seems to always lose a game at home that they should win, 8 wins is about the most I can see for this team. Hoke really needs to get his act together. His first season was an 11-2 effort, but since then, he is 15-11. That is NOT going to cut it at Michigan.

Maryland trades Florida State and Clemson for Michigan State and Ohio State. The difference is that they also go to Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan, plus a home game against Iowa. It is quite possible that they lose every game from October 4 until their final game of the season against Rutgers. 6-6 will be good for this team.

Ralphie Halves · 07-27-14, 07:44 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

6-6 will be good for this team.

Agreed, and I think that's what they need going forward. IMO they'll be more competitive in those tougher games too. When I say "improved", I don't mean instant Bowl game or division title.

Returning starters weigh heavily in your opinions I see. In the case of Wake however, with a new system, I think starting a fresh as possible can only help things, and returning starters are less of a factor, and can even be a burden at times. A lot of those players flat out quit on the team last year.

BigdaddyQH · 07-28-14, 11:40 AM

REturning starters weigh heavily for the first three to four games IMO. It takes that long for the newby's to catch on. As far as Maryland goes, it is too bad that they get thrown to the dogs so early as far as their cross-conference games are concerned. They could have caught Illinois and Purdue instead of Iowa and Wisconsin. Isn't it amazing that the newby gets those two and Ohio State gets Illinois and Minnesota.

Ralphie Halves · 07-28-14, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

REturning starters weigh heavily for the first three to four games IMO. It takes that long for the newby's to catch on. As far as Maryland goes, it is too bad that they get thrown to the dogs so early as far as their cross-conference games are concerned. They could have caught Illinois and Purdue instead of Iowa and Wisconsin. Isn't it amazing that the newby gets those two and Ohio State gets Illinois and Minnesota.

And Iowa's schedule is even more candy than that! I would suggest some sort of fix, but this is the only year I can recall to where you had a lot of your top teams in the conference able to avoid other top teams.

BigdaddyQH · 07-28-14, 07:53 PM

Originally posted by Ralphie Halves

And Iowa's schedule is even more candy than that! I would suggest some sort of fix, but this is the only year I can recall to where you had a lot of your top teams in the conference able to avoid other top teams.

The schedules are set for the next 16 years for the Big 10+4. Basically it is a home and home against your cross conference and divisional games. You switch cross conference opponents every two years. The only exception to that is that Indiana and Purdue will play each other every year becuase they got separated and Indiana went to the East while Purdue went to the West.

scumbag · 07-30-14, 09:44 PM

Originally posted by Ralphie Halves

Ones that haven't been mentioned yet. I agree with a lot of the ones here.

Improving - Michigan, Maryland, Houston, Nevada, Texas State

Declining - Definitely West Virginia. My prediction is that Holgorsen will get canned and become a sought-after OC for a team in 2015. Georgia disappoints even when they're loaded, and they're not as loaded this year IMO. I think Boise made a bad hire, and this is where the decline gains momentum.

Side notes: Arkansas will be well improved NEXT year I think. This year could still be brutal for them. And I'm not on the Arizona State bandwagon. They have to show me a shred of consistency first.

Expectations are high and they should be. For a SEC schedule it's not terrible. Toughest game is @ S Carolina then @ mizzu. They get everyone else at home, of those games auburn is the toughest.They were crushed by injuries last year.

georgia will be better this year. Auburn can only go down after the luck box/crazy/classic year they're coming off of.

Ralphie Halves · 07-31-14, 03:26 AM

Originally posted by scumbag

Expectations are high and they should be. For a SEC schedule it's not terrible. Toughest game is @ S Carolina then @ mizzu. They get everyone else at home, of those games auburn is the toughest.They were crushed by injuries last year.

georgia will be better this year. Auburn can only go down after the luck box/crazy/classic year they're coming off of.

To me, the schedule doesn't matter with them, they will find a way to come up well short.

Auburn is interesting, I think they probably will decline a bit just based on not blindsiding teams with that offense. SEC coaches have had time to prepare for it now.

BigdaddyQH · 07-31-14, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by scumbag

Expectations are high and they should be. For a SEC schedule it's not terrible. Toughest game is @ S Carolina then @ mizzu. They get everyone else at home, of those games auburn is the toughest.They were crushed by injuries last year.

georgia will be better this year. Auburn can only go down after the luck box/crazy/classic year they're coming off of.

Basicaly I agree with what you have said, except that Georgia seems to find a way to lose games. They have not defeated South Carolina on the road since 2008. The schedule is rather soft, but once again they lead the SEC in players being kicked off the team, a problem Richt has had for many years now. Their offense is rather weak this season, and their defense has already lost 3 starters from their secondary plus one back-up DL. If they get past the two South Carolina teams to start the season, there is really no reason for them to lose a game, but they will. Richt just does not seem to have what it takes to get UGA over the top.

gojetsgomoxies · 07-31-14, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

REturning starters weigh heavily for the first three to four games IMO. It takes that long for the newby's to catch on. As far as Maryland goes, it is too bad that they get thrown to the dogs so early as far as their cross-conference games are concerned. They could have caught Illinois and Purdue instead of Iowa and Wisconsin. Isn't it amazing that the newby gets those two and Ohio State gets Illinois and Minnesota.

what do you look at beyond the first few weeks? i agree that markets adjust fairly fast. i realize (for argument's sake) that XXXXX school is going to be horrible. they are horrible. market prices that in after 3-4 weeks..

this fits my win rate many years. i do well early on and am 50% (give or take) the rest of the way.... i started jumping on terrible teams later in season in recent years and it seems promising idea.

as per kansas and returning starters, i saw a list of returning seniors and it was very high. but i do see that returning starters is mixed. very high on defense but very little OLine starts returns.

i like some later named teams too. like nevada...... i do think phil steele's stock market indicator has some merit.

gojetsgomoxies · 07-31-14, 12:40 PM

one thing that is interesting is that in all phil steele's returning starter type lists i've seen he doesn't seem to put in returning QB.....

surely returning QB and especially highly effective returning QB must be incredibly vital.... or is the fact that tons of these teams play systems mitigate that?

BigdaddyQH · 07-31-14, 01:36 PM

Returning QB's are only s important as the system that they play in. A QB at Wisconsin, who'se basic job is to just hand the ball off to someone, is not nearly as important as a QB at Oregon, who must lead a triple option hurry-up offense and also be able to throw the ball with accuracy.

scumbag · 08-02-14, 07:41 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Basicaly I agree with what you have said, except that Georgia seems to find a way to lose games. They have not defeated South Carolina on the road since 2008. The schedule is rather soft, but once again they lead the SEC in players being kicked off the team, a problem Richt has had for many years now. Their offense is rather weak this season, and their defense has already lost 3 starters from their secondary plus one back-up DL. If they get past the two South Carolina teams to start the season, there is really no reason for them to lose a game, but they will. Richt just does not seem to have what it takes to get UGA over the top.

Agree. I'm not big on them to run the table. But I do feel they have a wrong shot at winning 10 or more games more often than 8 or 9.

Obv questions on defense. I think they'll be fine at QB. He'll have enough weapons. Gurley is obv a savage.

Keep an eye out for MS State. I'm sure I'm going to be on them when they play the elite sec teams. They've got a very impressive D that should keep them in most games.