Summer Outlook for the Big 10

[BigdaddyQH]

The Big 10+4 adds two more teams and splits on an East/West basis. First, the East:
Ohio State returns QB Braxton and two of his WR's on offense, but lose a lot on the offensive line. The defense will take the lead here, returning line and LB corps. Urban Meyer got a wake up call last season from Michigan State and Clemson in their Bowl Game. They play at Michigan State aned at Penn State. They are the favorites in the Big 14 East, but are by no means locks. Michigan State will need QB Cook and the offense to step up because their defense loses 6 starters. The Schedule is also very tough, going to Oregon and Penn State, and hosting Nebraska, Michigan, and Ohio State. Penn State plays both Ohio State and Michigan State at home, but is simply too thin because of NCAA sanctions. There is no excuse for Hoke and Michigan this season. They return 15 starters, but go to Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Ohio State. Anything less than 9 wins could mean Hoke's job. Maryland and Indiana will fight for 5th place, while Rutgers is overmatched.

The West: Iowa is our surprise winner. They return 6 on offense and 5 on defense. The offense should improve, and the d-line is going to be very tough, bad news in the run happy Big 10 West. They end the season hosting both Wisconsin and Nebraska, and duck the top East teams. Wisconsin is the early favorite, based on the schedule. They host Nebraska and also duck all of the Big 10 East's top teams. Nebraska returns only 3 starters on offense and 5 on defense, though all 5 may not be starters. The offense is going to have to improve. The schedule is tough, goint to Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Northwestern is the team you do not want to play in the West. 9 offensive starters and 7 defensive starters return. The schedule is doable, but not easy. Minneaota and illinois look like the 5 and 6 teams and Prudue may not win a game in the
Big 10.

[RiverBoatGambler]

Michigan is my favorite on that side. They have a ton of talent, experience coming back, and I think Hoke is a great coach.


Other side, I LOVE Northwestern. IF, IF, IF they stay healthy, I think they will shock the shit out of the country. Sieman is back at QB, return Green at RB and Mark returns from injury. Defense was garbage last season but everyone is back and I think they will be a surprise.

[mewalke11]

I would like to get Big 10 fans input on how they feel about adding Maryland and Rutgers....I just don't get it.

[BarstoolProphet]

I feel the same when they expanded the PAC 10 to 12. It is simply getting out of hand and a money grab,.

[BigdaddyQH]

Michigan is my favorite on that side. They have a ton of talent, experience coming back, and I think Hoke is a great coach.


Other side, I LOVE Northwestern. IF, IF, IF they stay healthy, I think they will shock the shit out of the country. Sieman is back at QB, return Green at RB and Mark returns from injury. Defense was garbage last season but everyone is back and I think they will be a surprise.

I can buy Northwestern, especially in the run happy West, but what can you possible say about Hoke and Michigan that is positive? What is his excuse for starting 2013 5-0 and then going 2-6 the rest of the way including a thrashing by K-State in their Bowl game. Hoke started out 11-2 in 2011 and has gone 15-13 since then. Last season he had 5 offensive starters including his QB and 6 defensive starters return to the team. They did terrible. With games at Notre Dame, Northwestern, Michigan State and Ohio State, Michigan will be lucky to squeak out 9 wins. If Michigan wins the Big 10, their will NOT be a Big 10 rep. in the Playoff. The same holds true for Northwestern.

[mewalke11]

I feel the same when they expanded the PAC 10 to 12. It is simply getting out of hand and a money grab,.

Yes it is but Utah is much more of a natural fit for the Pac 12 than rutgers is in the big 10.

[RiverBoatGambler]

I can buy Northwestern, especially in the run happy West, but what can you possible say about Hoke and Michigan that is positive? What is his excuse for starting 2013 5-0 and then going 2-6 the rest of the way including a thrashing by K-State in their Bowl game. Hoke started out 11-2 in 2011 and has gone 15-13 since then. Last season he had 5 offensive starters including his QB and 6 defensive starters return to the team. They did terrible. With games at Notre Dame, Northwestern, Michigan State and Ohio State, Michigan will be lucky to squeak out 9 wins. If Michigan wins the Big 10, their will NOT be a Big 10 rep. in the Playoff. The same holds true for Northwestern.

The reasons I'm buying into Michigan are, the new OC, QB, and the defense.

Gardner has show flashes of being really, really good. He's a SR finally and has experience in big games. I expect him to put together a great SR season and carry the offense.

The defense brings back 8 starters. They were pretty damn salty last season with a terrible offense they were on the field A LOT. Still finished 41st, the worst they've ever finished under current DC. They bring back all LB's and they are bringing in Jabrill Peppers. 5 star DB. Peppers will start from day 1. If you haven't watched any film on him, please do it. He has it all. Some of the best feet, hips, and hands I've seen on a high school kid. He did things in high school that college DB's can't do.


And I LOVE the new OC hire. I think he will spark a fire in the terrible offense that Michigan has been known for. Nussmeier is a top notch OC and play caller. I think Saban handcuffed him past 2 years at Bama honestly. He should have full reign over what plays to call this season.

[BigdaddyQH]

I understand what you are saying, but Michigan will NOT be able to defeat Ohio State in Columbus, or Michigan State in Lansing. Michigan has not won a game at Ohio State since 1999, and it will not hapen this season. They also have lost 3 straight at Michigan State.They will have a hard time defeating Notre Dame in South Bend, and Northwestern in Evanston, thou both of those games are winnable. Add Penn State at home and Michigan loses between two and 5 games tis season, and that will NOT get them into a major bowl. I might also add that the reasons you gave for a possible Michigan success on the field really has nothing to do with Hoke. Under Hoke, Michigan is 7-11 away from home, and that is NOT a winning formula. I believe that Michigan is all about past history. They have never fully recovered from the beatings that they took in the Rose Bowl in 2003, 04, and 06.

[RiverBoatGambler]

I understand what you are saying, but Michigan will NOT be able to defeat Ohio State in Columbus, or Michigan State in Lansing. Michigan has not won a game at Ohio State since 1999, and it will not hapen this season. They also have lost 3 straight at Michigan State.They will have a hard time defeating Notre Dame in South Bend, and Northwestern in Evanston, thou both of those games are winnable. Add Penn State at home and Michigan loses between two and 5 games tis season, and that will NOT get them into a major bowl. I might also add that the reasons you gave for a possible Michigan success on the field really has nothing to do with Hoke. Under Hoke, Michigan is 7-11 away from home, and that is NOT a winning formula. I believe that Michigan is all about past history. They have never fully recovered from the beatings that they took in the Rose Bowl in 2003, 04, and 06.

Do you think players on the 14-15 team care about losses 8-12 years ago?

[BigdaddyQH]

If you ask any of those players, they will say "No", but the stigma is still there. Sometimes it takes years to get rid of the stigma. Sometimes, it never goes away. It is hard to say. The biggest problem facing Hoke is the fact that he has all kinds of problems winning games on the road. Any HC with a losing record on the road is NOT a good HC IMO. I think that Hoke is on the hot seat. If Michigan is smart, they start looking for their 2015 starting QB this season. Michigan could return everyone except QB Gardner next season on offense. They also get Michigan State and Ohio State at home, and swap Notre Dame for BYU. Next season is when Michigan has a legitimate shot at the Big 10 Title, not this season.

[survive]

Agreed, I don't think Michigan will be a top 5 team in the Big 10 this year. Regarding your original post Bigdaddy, MSU loses 6 quality starters but I expect the defense to be pretty damn close to last year. Even though they lost some key guys on D they still have Narduzzi back at DC along with studs such as Calhoun/Waynes/Drummond and decent depth

[BigdaddyQH]

Michigan State gets a big scheduling break hosting both Ohio State and Michigan. They do finish the season at Penn State. The one game that can kill MSU, and the Big 10 for that matter, is the game at Oregon. If Oregon, as expected (-13 at the Golden Nugget) puts the big hurt on MSU and wins the Pac 12 Championship, that will really hurt MSU's chances of getting into the Playoff if they win the Big 10. t certainly will not help any other Big 10 team that might win the CC. It will also force Michigan to put a major whippin' on Utah at home, in a game that diod not even make the GOY list. Ohio State plays nobody in non-con action.

[survive]

What are your thoughts on that msu at Oregon game? I think 13 is far too many points first glance.

[BigdaddyQH]

MSU loses a lot on defense. They also have not played a team with the team speed that Oregon has. MSU loses 6 starters on defense and while this year's defense may eventually become very good, that wil not happen by game 2 of the season. Oregon has the best QB in the nation, and an offense that thinks nothing of scoring 30 points or more. They have done this 46 times in their past 50 games. MSU may keep it close for a half, but Oregon's speed eventually wears them out. I probably will not play this game, but if I did, I would give the 13 and take Oregon.

[survive]

Who is the one team that consistently gives Oregon problems? Stanford. MSU plays very similar to Stanford, and were obviously better in the rose bowl. Although msu isn't nearly as familiar with Oregon as Stanford is. Anything over 10 and I will play msu all day. Dantonio and narduzzi will have the defense ready IMO

[Big Bear]

Ohio States QB is horrible. Absolutely horrible.

Hopefully Myer has some stud Freshman coming in like Tebow's brother or something.

[BigdaddyQH]

Ohio States QB is horrible. Absolutely horrible.

Hopefully Myer has some stud Freshman coming in like Tebow's brother or something.

Are you serious? Miller is a pre-season 1st String All Big 10 team QB this season. He is also mentioned as a possible Heisman Trophy Candidate and 3rd String All American. There is no other QB in the Big 10 close to his status. Where do you dream this stuff up?

[BigdaddyQH]

Who is the one team that consistently gives Oregon problems? Stanford. MSU plays very similar to Stanford, and were obviously better in the rose bowl. Although msu isn't nearly as familiar with Oregon as Stanford is. Anything over 10 and I will play msu all day. Dantonio and narduzzi will have the defense ready IMO

Here is where your theory runs into major problems. Oregon plays Stanford every year. If, like you say, MSU is very similar to Stanford, Oregon knows exactly what to expect. MSU does not come close to playing a team with the overall team speed that Oregon possesses. You could get an all-star lineup of Big 10 players to practive against, and they still would not be nearly as fast as the Oregon team. So while Oregon has had plently of practice against teams similar to Stanford, MSU has had no practice against teams similar to Oregon. Like most teams that play Oregon for the first time, MSU gets gassed in the firs half and Oregon pulls away in the 2nd half. In their last 11 lined non-con games, Oregon is 8-3 ATS. Michigan State is 6-6 ATS in their last 12 lined non-con games, with 4 of those wins coming in Bowl Games at the END of the season. This is game 2.

[survive]

Here is where your theory runs into major problems. Oregon plays Stanford every year. If, like you say, MSU is very similar to Stanford, Oregon knows exactly what to expect. MSU does not come close to playing a team with the overall team speed that Oregon possesses. You could get an all-star lineup of Big 10 players to practive against, and they still would not be nearly as fast as the Oregon team. So while Oregon has had plently of practice against teams similar to Stanford, MSU has had no practice against teams similar to Oregon. Like most teams that play Oregon for the first time, MSU gets gassed in the firs half and Oregon pulls away in the 2nd half. In their last 11 lined non-con games, Oregon is 8-3 ATS. Michigan State is 6-6 ATS in their last 12 lined non-con games, with 4 of those wins coming in Bowl Games at the END of the season. This is game 2.

Great points. The thing I am most worried about is the lack of experience vs fast/spread offenses. I think I will go larger on MSU first half

[BigdaddyQH]

Great points. The thing I am most worried about is the lack of experience vs fast/spread offenses. I think I will go larger on MSU first half

That may be the way to go, especially if you can get 7 points. It will be early in the season.

[Urbanwildlife]

Are you serious? Miller is a pre-season 1st String All Big 10 team QB this season. He is also mentioned as a possible Heisman Trophy Candidate and 3rd String All American. There is no other QB in the Big 10 close to his status. Where do you dream this stuff up?

Again BigdaddyQH, he has to be playing with you, but then again ?????

[BigdaddyQH]

Again BigdaddyQH, he has to be playing with you, but then again ?????

Have you seen his alleged wagers? His record has to be lower than 45%, and that, as you know, is really bad.

[Dilo]

Ohio States QB is horrible. Absolutely horrible.

Hopefully Myer has some stud Freshman coming in like Tebow's brother or something.

he is a heismann favorite, so I don't think he's that bad. What will probably hurt him this year is that the running back Carlos Hyde got drafted. That guy was a beast. So I guess we will see how good urban Meyers system is this year.

[BigdaddyQH]

Meyer is going to have to find someone to carry the ball offensively. He loses too many starting linemen. To get these new players broken in, Ohio state must depend on a defense with an excellent front 7 to dominate their games. The schedule is very easy, but they do go to Michigan State and then face a dangerous letdown situation at Minnesota a week later. Still, Miller is the best QB in the Big 10, and he plus a good defense and a soft schedule shout get Ohio State at least 10 wins, if not more.

[Dilo]

Buckeyes are -105 to win the conference. Seems low to me.

[BigdaddyQH]

Buckeyes are -105 to win the conference. Seems low to me.

I have seen Ohio State at +100 and +150. -105 is too low for my liking.

[Straight Cash]

The one thing I think is in MSU's favor v. Oregon is that the D is set up to stop/contain a running QB. They have done real well v. guys like Denard Robinson, Devin Gardner, Braxton Miller. I think Mariotta is better than those 3, but they way Narduzzi calls his D I think it'll be a good game. MSU's D is similar if not better than Stanford and we all know how Oregon has fared against Stanford the past few years.

[BigdaddyQH]

Stanford won the last two games, but Oregon won the two before then. So do not do what most amateurs do. Use a two year statistic to base a wager on. It should be part of your wagering thinking, but it certainly does not make up for the fact that Michigan State is a slow team that lost most of it's LB corps. Oregon wins by scoring a lot of points. If they can score against Michigan State, they can just about call their shots because Michigan State does not have a good offense.

[Straight Cash]

Are you saying MSUs defense is slow? If so, you sound amateur. And yes they lost their starting LBs, but "don't make the mistake most amateurs do" and assume that means their LBs will be inexperienced. MSU constantly rotates in and out in all positions and is very deep, particularly at LB. Case in point, their best LB was suspended for the Rose Bowl and his backup just stepped in and was defensive MVP of the game. I'm not saying MSU will win, but saying they'll lose because Oregon is fast and MSU hasn't faced a fast team is a lazy argument. If being fast means you win then Oregon would win the NC every year.

edit to clarify: I don't think MSUs D is slow but I'm also not arguing that they are as fast as Oregon's O. Oregon's O is clearly faster.

[BigdaddyQH]

The entire Big 10 is SLOW compared to other conferences. This is one of the many reasons why there has not been a NC from the Big 10 in many a year. Michigan State has never played a team as fast as Oregon. Certainly not in the Big 10. Michigan State's defense would be slow against USC, UCLA, and Washington, much less Oregon. Stanford is the slowest competitive team in the Pac 12. As mentioned, they are a mirror of Michigan State. Oregon has had a lot of practice with big, slower teams that try to wear you down.

Now if this game were played later in the season, I woud give Michigan State a much better chance, but they are playing in week 2. MSU plays Jacksonville State in week 1, and that will not help them prepare for Oregon at all. MSU's defense is going to have to come around and they will not be able to do that by week 2. Can they win the Big 10? Certainly. Can they defeat Oregon? That is very doubtful.

[Straight Cash]

I agree, I don't think they'll win, but I think they are capable of keeping contain on defense. Watching the Stanford game I don't think Stanford's D looked slow against Oregon. Discipline on D is the most important thing v. Oregon IMO. Can't get sucked in by the read. For MSU I'd be most concerned with losing the OL that they did. Controlling the clock is a big element to beating Oregon and you need a good OL to do that. MSU has good enough skill players on O.

[survive]

Luckily Oregon has never really had a strong rush defense so hopefully the inexperienced msu line can open lanes for Langford

[BigdaddyQH]

Ball control is critical for MSU, because if Oregon gets rolling, MSU is finished. I stil expect the Oregon offense to put up 31 or more against MSU, and the MSU offense cannot keep up with that.

[Straight Cash]

Ball control is critical for MSU, because if Oregon gets rolling, MSU is finished. I stil expect the Oregon offense to put up 31 or more against MSU, and the MSU offense cannot keep up with that.

Well, to cover they would only have to put up ~17-18. I think they can do that. Ohio State had a defense way better than what Oregon will throw at them, and they put up 34 last year. In their common opponent Stanford, MSU put up 24 and Oregon put up 20. Not the same team this year obviously, but if the line can be serviceable I think they will make it competitive. The line play is huge in most games, but even moreso in this one.

[BigdaddyQH]

The problem is this. MSU simply loses too many starters on offense. While MSU can certainly improve their offense with time, Oregon's offense is already set. Been there. Done that. Oregon returns a solid group on the defensive front 7, so MSU will have to get it's passing game in gear if they want to stay in the game. Oregon can score anytime they touch the ball, and MSU does not have that talent. One thing that kills opponents is the fact that they will grind out long drives for scores just to see Oregon come back and score in a minute or less. That really takes it's toll mentally. It seems as if your team must score every time they get the ball, or get blown out of the game. If Oregon is successful in beefing up and toughening up their front four, they will be extremely difficult to beat. It should be interesting, but Oregon is NEVER out of a game (unless they are playing in Arizona).