Hello forum,
Just trying to keep it rolling this week as I'm starting to get a beat here on the season. I think it's important we really start paying attention to situational handicapping this week and that's what I've tried to focus on in many of my games this week.
Utah -6
Yeah, I know this line has gone up and I guess I like it up to 10. Bottom line, SDSU has no offense, I repeat no offense. I have watched every quarter of both games they've played this year. I thought the freshman Dougey would have done better with 2.5 weeks to prepare last week, but he could only throw a bomb or wide receiver screen. I think he will be facing a defense just as good if not better than Wisconsin's in Utah's. A glaring piece of info. I found out last week is that SDSU has lost 2 WR's, 2 TE's and 1 OL for the season, all of whom were starters in spring capmp. It's very tough to run a west coast offense without those guys. I know that Utah had a rough first game, but they seem to have gotten it rolling. I really like the way QB Ratliff has been playing for them. They are also very deep at RB, which will be key to wearing the SDSU down in the fourth quarter. Liking Utah, especially if you got -7 or less.
UConn +2
I know everyone seemed to like them last week, but I didn't get it. I thought they matched up pretty well with a solid Wake Forest team. This week, however, they get to play an Indiana team with some problems. Hardy, their best receiver (and probably one of the best receivers in the Big 10) has taken a leave of abscense from the team. Also, their coach, Hoeppner, just got done having brain surgery and won't join the team until Monday. Also, Indiana is fresh off a loss to I-AA Southern Illinois where they gave up a ton of rushing yards. That's good for UConn, because that's what they do well. Really like RB Terry Caulley (and yes he's healthy), as well as QB D.J. Hernandez (very mobile). UConn is also very well coached by Randy Edsall. Should be a good match-up here for the Huskies.
B.C. -7
Before all of you say this isn't the same B.C. defense of old, please take a look at their first three opponents. I think Clemson is a great team, BYU's a good team and even Central Michigan is underrated. Combine that with two overtime games and that can distort stats a lot. B.C. is catching an N.C. State team at just the right time. Chuck Amato is on the hot seat, and his team might be better served to play all road games at this point. One interesting stat from last week's game vs. Southern Miss is that Southern Miss didn't punt the entire game! B.C. has a good offense and is led by one of the more underrated coaches in the entire nation in Tom O'Brien. QB Ryan should make good decisions and they have two solid RB's to rely on as well. Really like Gonzalez as a receiving threat and look for KR Smith to make a big play on special teams. Bad spot for NCSU and B.C. will take advantage here.
Nebraska -21 (like it up to 24)
Yeah, that was bullshit that Bill Callahan called such a vanilla game vs. USC last week. I will tell you though, I was very impressed with Nebraska's athletes, especially on defense. Also was very impressed with QB Taylor, when he was allowed to throw. Do you know there have been only two teams to hold USC to less points at home under Pete Carroll's than Nebraska did last week? Bill Callahan has said he has two goals, to win the Big 12 North and win the Big 12 Championship. Troy is playing their third road game in a row this week, after playing Florida St. and Georgia Tech respectively. I think Nebraska is the best of these three teams by far and Callahan has shown to have the killer instinct vs. inferior opponents, especially at home. I don't see him letting up here and Troy has shown they really wear down in the fourth quarter. Look for the Huskers to run it up here.
Bowling Green -7
I know you think I'm crazy for laying points in the MAC. Here me out though, as I've got some good ammunition to back up my analysis. Bowling Green has won 20 of their last 24 home games by an average of over 20 points per game. They have one of the better home field advantages that most people don't know about. They had an off year last year and I still think people have them undervalued. They are playing a Kent St. team that is definitely better than last year, but that's not saying much. Kent has huge problems with their run defense and I have really been impressed with RB/QB Freddie Barnes. QB Anthony Turner has a hurt shoulder and may not play in this one, but I don't think it will matter as Barnes is very capable. If Kent gets down early, they are going to have some problems with only one legitamite receiving threat. I'm a believer that games are played at the tempo of the home team. In this case, Bowling Green is going to want to play a fast paced game and run up the points. I also think Bowling Green really found their offense last week vs. a scrapy FIU team. Laying the TD in this one with Bowling Green.
Wyoming PK
Here's another game I can't figure out. Wyoming has played very well this season, and could very well be 3-0, with tough losses at Virginia and to Boise St. last week. They did hold Boise to 132 yards rushing the entire game and didn't let them score a single point in the second half. I feel they match-up very well with Air Force here, as they have beat them 6 of the last 7 times these two teams have played. The other thing is that is strange is that Air Force has only played one game this entire year. Yeah, they played Tennesse tough and I think their QB Carney is good. I just don't think they have enough to hang with this well-coached (Joe Glenn is great) Wyoming team for four quarters. Plus, Wyoming is a very difficult place to play and Wyoming has a nice home field advantage up there.
Arkansas -2
This has been a game of much debate this week. Yeah, Arkansas got blown out by USC, but they did hang with them for a half and these guys have athletes. They will be starting freshman QB, Mitch Mustain. I must say that I'm impressed with this guy. This will be his third start and the home town loves him. He's got a great backfield behind him, led by outstanding RB Darren McFadden. This guy reminds me of Eric Dickerson when I see him run, with a little more burst. Also like WR Marcus Monk to make a couple of big plays in the air. People are still thinking that Alabama is this great defensive team and they're good, but not anywhere near last year's team. John Parker Wilson will be making the first road start of his career and Fayetville (where the Hogs have won over 70%of the games they've played there) will be rocking. Shula is not a good coach, he had good players last year and will be exposed this year. Houston Nutt isn't the greatest either, but I'd take him over Shula any day of the week. Hogs get it done here.
Remember guys, be smart, handicap well and have a lot of fun doing this!
GLTA
pags11
Just trying to keep it rolling this week as I'm starting to get a beat here on the season. I think it's important we really start paying attention to situational handicapping this week and that's what I've tried to focus on in many of my games this week.
Utah -6
Yeah, I know this line has gone up and I guess I like it up to 10. Bottom line, SDSU has no offense, I repeat no offense. I have watched every quarter of both games they've played this year. I thought the freshman Dougey would have done better with 2.5 weeks to prepare last week, but he could only throw a bomb or wide receiver screen. I think he will be facing a defense just as good if not better than Wisconsin's in Utah's. A glaring piece of info. I found out last week is that SDSU has lost 2 WR's, 2 TE's and 1 OL for the season, all of whom were starters in spring capmp. It's very tough to run a west coast offense without those guys. I know that Utah had a rough first game, but they seem to have gotten it rolling. I really like the way QB Ratliff has been playing for them. They are also very deep at RB, which will be key to wearing the SDSU down in the fourth quarter. Liking Utah, especially if you got -7 or less.
UConn +2
I know everyone seemed to like them last week, but I didn't get it. I thought they matched up pretty well with a solid Wake Forest team. This week, however, they get to play an Indiana team with some problems. Hardy, their best receiver (and probably one of the best receivers in the Big 10) has taken a leave of abscense from the team. Also, their coach, Hoeppner, just got done having brain surgery and won't join the team until Monday. Also, Indiana is fresh off a loss to I-AA Southern Illinois where they gave up a ton of rushing yards. That's good for UConn, because that's what they do well. Really like RB Terry Caulley (and yes he's healthy), as well as QB D.J. Hernandez (very mobile). UConn is also very well coached by Randy Edsall. Should be a good match-up here for the Huskies.
B.C. -7
Before all of you say this isn't the same B.C. defense of old, please take a look at their first three opponents. I think Clemson is a great team, BYU's a good team and even Central Michigan is underrated. Combine that with two overtime games and that can distort stats a lot. B.C. is catching an N.C. State team at just the right time. Chuck Amato is on the hot seat, and his team might be better served to play all road games at this point. One interesting stat from last week's game vs. Southern Miss is that Southern Miss didn't punt the entire game! B.C. has a good offense and is led by one of the more underrated coaches in the entire nation in Tom O'Brien. QB Ryan should make good decisions and they have two solid RB's to rely on as well. Really like Gonzalez as a receiving threat and look for KR Smith to make a big play on special teams. Bad spot for NCSU and B.C. will take advantage here.
Nebraska -21 (like it up to 24)
Yeah, that was bullshit that Bill Callahan called such a vanilla game vs. USC last week. I will tell you though, I was very impressed with Nebraska's athletes, especially on defense. Also was very impressed with QB Taylor, when he was allowed to throw. Do you know there have been only two teams to hold USC to less points at home under Pete Carroll's than Nebraska did last week? Bill Callahan has said he has two goals, to win the Big 12 North and win the Big 12 Championship. Troy is playing their third road game in a row this week, after playing Florida St. and Georgia Tech respectively. I think Nebraska is the best of these three teams by far and Callahan has shown to have the killer instinct vs. inferior opponents, especially at home. I don't see him letting up here and Troy has shown they really wear down in the fourth quarter. Look for the Huskers to run it up here.
Bowling Green -7
I know you think I'm crazy for laying points in the MAC. Here me out though, as I've got some good ammunition to back up my analysis. Bowling Green has won 20 of their last 24 home games by an average of over 20 points per game. They have one of the better home field advantages that most people don't know about. They had an off year last year and I still think people have them undervalued. They are playing a Kent St. team that is definitely better than last year, but that's not saying much. Kent has huge problems with their run defense and I have really been impressed with RB/QB Freddie Barnes. QB Anthony Turner has a hurt shoulder and may not play in this one, but I don't think it will matter as Barnes is very capable. If Kent gets down early, they are going to have some problems with only one legitamite receiving threat. I'm a believer that games are played at the tempo of the home team. In this case, Bowling Green is going to want to play a fast paced game and run up the points. I also think Bowling Green really found their offense last week vs. a scrapy FIU team. Laying the TD in this one with Bowling Green.
Wyoming PK
Here's another game I can't figure out. Wyoming has played very well this season, and could very well be 3-0, with tough losses at Virginia and to Boise St. last week. They did hold Boise to 132 yards rushing the entire game and didn't let them score a single point in the second half. I feel they match-up very well with Air Force here, as they have beat them 6 of the last 7 times these two teams have played. The other thing is that is strange is that Air Force has only played one game this entire year. Yeah, they played Tennesse tough and I think their QB Carney is good. I just don't think they have enough to hang with this well-coached (Joe Glenn is great) Wyoming team for four quarters. Plus, Wyoming is a very difficult place to play and Wyoming has a nice home field advantage up there.
Arkansas -2
This has been a game of much debate this week. Yeah, Arkansas got blown out by USC, but they did hang with them for a half and these guys have athletes. They will be starting freshman QB, Mitch Mustain. I must say that I'm impressed with this guy. This will be his third start and the home town loves him. He's got a great backfield behind him, led by outstanding RB Darren McFadden. This guy reminds me of Eric Dickerson when I see him run, with a little more burst. Also like WR Marcus Monk to make a couple of big plays in the air. People are still thinking that Alabama is this great defensive team and they're good, but not anywhere near last year's team. John Parker Wilson will be making the first road start of his career and Fayetville (where the Hogs have won over 70%of the games they've played there) will be rocking. Shula is not a good coach, he had good players last year and will be exposed this year. Houston Nutt isn't the greatest either, but I'd take him over Shula any day of the week. Hogs get it done here.
Remember guys, be smart, handicap well and have a lot of fun doing this!
GLTA
pags11
