I am in a college football bowl pool based on a points system where you just have to pick the winner of each game. Long story short, after Arkanas St pulled off the upset I am in a position where I am leading with the most points and all I have to do is pick the winner in the National Championship. The guy in 2nd place is right behind me and I can't see who he picks until after the game starts. If I pick the winner he can't beat me and I will be guaranteed $1200 by picking the winner of the game. Should I take FSU in my pool and let it ride? Or should I take FSU in the pool and hedge it by putting $600 on Auburn +10 points right now? My book isn't offering the money line or I would consider putting $300 on Auburn ML to guarantee myself $900. My thinking is if FSU wins the game which they should considering they are 10 point favorites I win $1200. I am also looking at it where I might be able to middle it by putting $600 on Auburn +10. What does everyone think I should do?
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of course you should do this...chance of hitting both..Comment -
I know it sounds like the right thing to do by hedging. I just feel like I am risking nothing with a very good shot at winning $1200. I am leaning towards hedging it though. Looking forward to hearing everyone's thoughtsComment -
Ya I'm w/ mw. Any time you have a 10 point window of opportunity on a hedge, go for that IMO. If I were in your shoes, I'd put any amount up to the $1200 on AU +10 (-110).Comment -
you are definitely risking something, $1200! I really think no one has any idea how this game will turn out. Much smarter to hedge in this situationComment -
Don't hedge anything. He will think that you will pick fsu to win the pool and that his only chance to win is to pick auburn. So pick auburn and you'll cancel his pick out and you'll win by default right?Comment -
Good problem to have here. I believe you said that just PICK the WINNER, not the SPREAD WINNER, is it correct? If so here is the deal.
No one will pick Auburn as Straight Up winner, likely both of you will pick Fl St meaning you will WIN the pool, so the other guy (assuming there is no value for being #2) will certainly PICK Auburn for an upset. The Moneyline for +10.5 points is about +340 so you should go ahead and pick Fl St in your pool and place 300 or so on Auburn Moneyline. The least you would win is 860 dollars, or as you said put 600 on Auburn +10.5 and have a great chance to win both ways. Best of luck to you.Comment -
Yep. I just have to pick the winner. I am assuming he will pick Auburn considering the situation but the problem that I have is that I am only winning the contest by a few points. The teams in 3rd or 4th place would beat me if I picked the loser and they had the winner. I also like the ML idea but as of right now my book isn't offering a ML. I think the odds are too high because they do on other games.Comment -
so it seems like your guy in second would pick fsu...to lock in his second place prize?Comment -
Things to consider:
How much is $1200.00 to you? What is your average bet size? What was the cost of the pool?
Do you think there is an edge in Auburn +10, FSU -10 or neither?
If you are a $20 game better and the pool cost you $20 and you have no opinion on the game, the $600 hedge with a shot at the middle would seem appropriate.Comment -
Fsu wins by at least 20. Let it rideComment -
$1200 would be 12 units to me. I am a $100 bettor. The other thing is there is no 2nd place prize. All goes to 1st placeComment -
Crazy as it sounds. I am leaning towards not hedging this. I feel really good about FSU winning the game. Hedging feels like a separate bet for $600 on auburn getting 10.5. If this pool that I am in didn't exist I would be on FSU -10.5. It doesn't feel right going against gut instinct to not hedge.Comment
