What am I missing about this Miami line?

[cmoney11]

Miami opens -8 vs a pretty bad UNC team. I understand it's at UNC however I would think this line would be -13... maybe -10 at the very least. Miami has a solid squad top to bottom with a with the bye week, Morris and Johnson had time to nurse their injuries. What's going on here?!

[wufpakman21]

I agree. But don't forget UNC had a bye week too. UNC's entire season pretty much is in the balance here with this one game. Another loss and they'd have to win out for a bowl shot. They should get Bryn Renner back for this game and if that's the case UNC will be able to score a few TD's. Aside from the one ugly loss to ECU the Heels have hung tuff at GT, losing on a few questionable calls, and last week they hung with VT at VT without Brenner in the lineup. Miami will score a lot of points on the Heels defense. It's just a question of can UNC force some turnovers and keep it close. I'll be putting my money on Miami.

[cmoney11]

Yeah. For UNC to have a chance in my opinion they have to have a flawless game AND create turnovers. If Miami plays an average game, I think they take it. Big $$$ on Miami at -7

[Vinnie Paz]

Thought renner would still be out

[cmoney11]

Thought renner would still be out

They haven't announced if he's coming back or not yet. Obviously they're hoping so but it's in the air right now.

[FreshCope]

Does anyone else think the over might be the play here? Miami will put up a lot of points, but I suspect UNC will keep up, for a while at least.

[luckyutah]

This is a typical let down spot for Miami. It's also their first real road game as they've had 4 home games and a quick trip to Tampa to play USF. Also a road favorite on Thursday night makes me nervous. UNC has 4 losses, but outside of the ECU game, their losses are not too much to be ashamed of -- South Carolina, GT, and VT.

I think this Miami team will be different than the last few seasons, but they have to prove it to me first. I would stay away from this line.

[cane]

I'm seeing Renner as probable, and I'll be on UNC. Even though UM is 5-0, their schedule to this point has been relatively easy. Their wins have come against FAU, Fla, Savannah St, USF, and Ga Tech. In the game against the Gators they were outplayed, UF had a 22-10 edge in first downs, and outgained Miami by 200 yards. Miami won beacause the gators turned it over five times, three of those came in the red zone and another happened inside their own ten. The only other decent team they've beaten is Ga Tech who is 3-3 and not close to being ranked. The Heels are only 1-4, but they have more talent than a 1-4 team and with this game being an ESPN game on Thursday night, I expect a big time effort from a team trying to turn around their season.

[JabooFootball]

Miami by 15. Dont overthink it.

[cane]

Miami by 15. Dont overthink it.

I think you're underthinking it. It can't be as simple as Miami is good, UNC is bad, so Miami covers. I may lose my play on Carolina, but win or lose I always put some thought into who I'm putting my money on. There are a lot of factors I look at when deciding who I'm playing more than just team A is better than team B, therefore team A will win.

[Urbanwildlife]

Miami is stronger offensively, defensively, and on special teams. I see no way that North Carolina can hang in this game because they certainly will not be able to match up with the offensive firepower that Miami has.

On the other hand, Thursday night games can take on a game of there own.

[JabooFootball]

I think you're underthinking it. It can't be as simple as Miami is good, UNC is bad, so Miami covers. I may lose my play on Carolina, but win or lose I always put some thought into who I'm putting my money on. There are a lot of factors I look at when deciding who I'm playing more than just team A is better than team B, therefore team A will win.

Okay, so lets overthink it. UNC is in the 2nd year of a defensive overhaul. They are allowing 200 ypg on the ground and 220 yards through the air. Every team that thrown for at least 20 attempts (excluding middle tennessee state) has 3 TDs against them. They are averaging 17.5 ppg in conference, while allowing.

Miami is in its most frutiful year of offensive production under Al Golden. They are averaging 3 rushing TDs a game, 5.87 ypc, and are still putting the ball in the air for 250 ypg.

UNC didnt beat Miami last year, Gio Bernard did.

[cmoney11]

Another factor in my selecting this play is the fact it is a short week for North Carolina, where as Miami has had the bye week to prepare for this particular game.

I 100% agree with you that UNC can't match up and go drive for drive vs Miami. Just had to point out that UNC had a bye week as well as the U. They're both rested up but I think Miami forces some UNC mistakes/turnovers and covers.

[wufpakman21]

Miami is stronger offensively, defensively, and on special teams. I see no way that North Carolina can hang in this game because they certainly will not be able to match up with the offensive firepower that Miami has. Another factor in my selecting this play is the fact it is a short week for North Carolina, where as Miami has had the bye week to prepare for this particular game.

On the other hand, Thursday night games can take on a game of there own.

It's not a short week for UNC. THey last played at VT on Oct 5th.

[Urbanwildlife]

Apologies, as where the fcuk has time gone? lol

[cmoney11]

Okay, so lets overthink it. UNC is in the 2nd year of a defensive overhaul. They are allowing 200 ypg on the ground and 220 yards through the air. Every team that thrown for at least 20 attempts (excluding middle tennessee state) has 3 TDs against them. They are averaging 17.5 ppg in conference, while allowing.

Miami is in its most frutiful year of offensive production under Al Golden. They are averaging 3 rushing TDs a game, 5.87 ypc, and are still putting the ball in the air for 250 ypg.

UNC didnt beat Miami last year, Gio Bernard did.

Not to mention that Miami has the #1 pass defense in the country which may neutralize Renner and UNC is 114th out of 123 in rushing offense. Just overthinking it more for ya! Pick city.

[luckyutah]

Stats are fine, but you have to look at the competition to put them in perspective. Miami has great pass defense because of the teams they've played. FAU, Savannah State, and USF are horrible. The only two respectable teams Miami has played don't even know what a forward pass is (Florida and GT).

[getthekook]

i said the same thing vs usf..why only -18.5..then said it vs GT -5.5..the book has zero respect for the canes & they will make them pay again miami by 14+

[JabooFootball]

canes have been cashin my ticket all year and i cant stand the orange and green. choo choo, keep the train a rollin.

[BigdaddyQH]

Let'ws look at the one common opponent. Georgia Tech beats UNC 28-20. Miami beats Ga. Tech 45-30. The problem with UNC is not only are they 1-4, but they are also 1-4 ATS. School is out boys and girls.

[wacked]

The only game Miami was outclassed in was the Florida, game, but numerous turnovers, and not scoring points in the RedZone is what caused Florida to lose. Miami is a good team and on a normal neutral field they are easily -14. On the road on a short week probably brings them down to -9 or -10.

[LowRollin]

on the road against a division rival

[RavensFan2k3]

The only game Miami was outclassed in was the Florida, game, but numerous turnovers, and not scoring points in the RedZone is what caused Florida to lose. Miami is a good team and on a normal neutral field they are easily -14. On the road on a short week probably brings them down to -9 or -10.

Its not a short week if they are both coming off of a bye week

[wacked]

Its not a short week if they are both coming off of a bye week

Correct, it's a Thursday game, but both coming off bye.

[cane]

Well the game played out pretty much like I thought it would, Carolina played hard with their season on the line, but the better team pulled it out in the end. Carolina was clearly the right side, congrats to the Tar Heel backers.

[JabooFootball]

Well the game played out pretty much like I thought it would, Carolina played hard with their season on the line, but the better team pulled it out in the end. Carolina was clearly the right side, congrats to the Tar Heel backers.

you thought miamis two best skill players would get injured???

[Pivotpoint]

Your right Jaboo. Heel backers got really lucky with two best players leaving that game early. I have to give it to Heels for inspired play. They were really swarming to the ball last night.

Morris had a bad game, but I would ask anybody to think about their favorite team. Now take away your #1 RB and #1 receiver and think how they would fare? Not to good I suspect. Duke is huge at keeping the D honest and taking pressure off Morris.

Hey, I'll take all the luck I can get, but I never confuse it with being smart.

I have to give big credit to Canes coming back late in that game. I was backing Miami +8 and lost that bet. Sweated out 3 large teaser cards with Miami - 1 1/2. If I would have lost those prior to going into the weekend, well, that would have hurt.

[JabooFootball]

And cane backers will get it back next week when the squares lay off the canes. 4-2 ATS on the season about to go home to play wake forrest probably will be a 16-18 point favorite (woulda been 21-24 had they won this game)

[cane]

you thought miamis two best skill players would get injured???

Sure Miami missing those guys hurt them, but it doesn't change the fact that Carolina was the right side. They were covering from the opening kickoff until the last play. Crawford filled in nicely for Duke Johnson, and Stephen Morris just didn't play well. Miami stole a game they probably should have lost. To answer your question, no I didn't think UM's best two skill players would get hurt, but I also didn't think UM would block a FG and return it for a TD. Those things happen in football, just like injuries.

[isotopes]

Stephen Morris looked like he was intentionally trying to throw that game. The second the coach ran the ball every down they came back and won. Morris was a disaster, and to be honest, those outside finess run calls was also a disaster. Miami should have been running straight up the gut the whole game and they would have covered easily, and at least had dorsett healthy. I really question the whole team on this game. The play calling along with Morris was outrageous.