[naslax13]

Time to break the bookies back

[Lucky1g]

get em you chinball wizard..invest rather than gamble, what an original idea! you must be very intelligent nasty nas

[naslax13]

going with the unpopular homecoming teams this week... investment strategies, not emotions my friend.

[naslax13]

purdues gona win outright

[naslax13]

4-1 this week..
2011 Record : 14-8.. +33.1 units

[Lucky1g]

credit where credit is due sir..14-8 +33units is nice

[naslax13]

early play: georgia tech +4.5 .. 5 units

[figue]

[coachcfb1]

Just curious to know your reasoning on going with GT, other than "rebound game"? Thanks...

[naslax13]

Just curious to know your reasoning on going with GT, other than "rebound game"? Thanks...

#1 . I took the line sunday night because I know sharp money will push the line smaller
#2. Georgia Tech has had back to back road games, they will enjoy a nice home field advantage on their homecoming day ( perfect upset scenario)
#3. Clemson has covered all but one line this season, winning by large margins.. The average square will ride the clemson wave because they keep covering,after 6 straight covers, vegas has to be on their A game and must compensate for the squares who are looking to be all over clemson..
#4 If vegas is going to make you OVERPAY to take clemson, and the line is only -4, it seems that vegas does not think highly of clemson in this game. The true line seems more of a pickem in my eyes if you take away the premium that clemson has factored in.
#5. All of the above point to a classic trap game in which georgia tech wins outright IMO

[coachcfb1]

Ok, thank you for the response. I am going to have to stay on the "square side" on this one. From my eyes, GT is really struggling big time right now against anyone with speed on defense. Clemson has the ability to score from anywhere on the field. I see this game staying under and Clemson winning 27-17. If I am wrong, I will gladly stand up to it!

Good luck to you though...

[naslax13]

Ok, thank you for the response. I am going to have to stay on the "square side" on this one. From my eyes, GT is really struggling big time right now against anyone with speed on defense. Clemson has the ability to score from anywhere on the field. I see this game staying under and Clemson winning 27-17. If I am wrong, I will gladly stand up to it!

Good luck to you though...

Thats what separates me from the average bettor. I try to focus less on getting wrapped up in statistics, and emotions. The lines are always right, the computer technology that vegas has is far superior to any intuition/hunch the average person may have about a particular matchup. Therefore, you are wasting your time if you are trying to handicap games based on talent/statistics. The only time the lines are wrong is when the public consensus is wrong, which shifts the line in order to create a betting equilibrium. If you want to invest rather than gamble you must look at the game in the eyes of the bookie, and take the games in which the public conception has distorted the true line. In this case, the public could not be any higher on clemson, and gtech coming off back to back losses are not exactly public favorites therefore such a small line is a clear trap. If this game is played 10 times, Gtech covers more than 50% of the time. That thinking right there is the only way you will ever beat this game.

[spladle08]

Not saying that logic doesn't make sense, but with these "gravy trains" (Clemson, LSU, Bama, OSU, TT Ov, etc...) is vegas waiting for the right moment to pounce? Whats the story there? As you said, they have to be on their A game to avoid further losses. Why wouldnt they have chosen to execute their "A" game earlier in the season... maybe week 3?

[naslax13]

First off, ohio state is 4-3 ATS not sure why you put them on there..
Second, your a fool if you think u can ride the gravy train all year long. It is at about this point where the public catches on thinking ohhh heyy easy money here lets ride the train, and thats when you lose your shirt. Its about that time this week for Clemson in my opinion. I'd rather be on the side of the books than the side of the squares. Over the long haul I will win year after year due to this thinking.

[spladle08]

Osu= Oklahoma state

[spladle08]

Just got home... easier to type on my computer than phone, but there is no reason for Vegas to bait in people on national favorites... they are always going to get LSU, Bama, OKState, Wisconsin, etc.. (no need to list who favorites are.... you should know this) money....Anyways you are ridiculous... lol good luck this year

[naslax13]

This game is very hard. I have learned alot over the past few years, the game has taught me a lot. I'm only trying to help educate the masses. If you disagree with my theories than it is your loss not mine, someday you will open your eyes.

However, I'll continue being "ridiculous" and cash checks while you lose your lunch money.. goodluck bud

[qbsafety8]

you don't think public money pushes the line higher?? i like gtech too

[qbsafety8]

i like the under too.. gtech controls the ball and keeps it close at home

[naslax13]

it is hard to tell, usually on game-day public money pushes the line higher, however this game reminds me a bit of purdue last week which went from +6 to +3 despite public being on Illinois, so it is tough to say but im happy to get 3.5 and higher in this one, didnt want to take a risk and end up with +3, so as soon as i saw +4.5 I jumped on it . But yes, depending on how much sharp money gets put down the public could always move it to 5 on saturday, but my gut tells me the closing line will be in the +3.5 range with the sharp money overpowering the public money.

[Greg2011]

Naslax what other games do you like

[naslax13]

USC is getting the most sharp money this week, but that game doesn't sit right with me as of right now..still making a decision there... I'd have to say my second favorite play of the week has to be arizona.. may post a pick there

[spladle08]

Arizona is a pretty nice play imo

[naslax13]

Staying away from USC not taking the sharp bait here.. can see them winning by 10

I like zona but not enough to bet them. I am going to add another 5 units on Gtech
and also a small 1 unit to win 5.6 units on a moneyline parlay of Gtech and Zona

.. The parlay will be independent of my W/L record since its a small exotic bet, but will be reflected in my total units[/B]

[figue]

[10dollawinna]

bol today nas...w/ you on gt

[BookieRobber]

interesting thread, you seem to know your stuff.. love the money management with the +30 units up so far..

[naslax13]

interesting thread, you seem to know your stuff.. love the money management with the +30 units up so far..

Thank you, went big on gtech this week for 10 units, currently 43.1 units with the money-line parlay still up in the air. stay tuned

[figue]

[Greg2011]

Thanks on the GT nas you doing any NFL

[naslax13]

Thanks on the GT nas you doing any NFL

no official picks, but like steelers

[naslax13]

This week: 1-0
2011: 15-8 +42.1 units

[Col. Sanders]

Good day to you sir. I would like to express my appreciation for your GA Tech pick, which saved my hide yesterday. I am new to all this, could you direct me to some helpful links so as to get started on the right foot?

Regards,
The Colonel

[coachcfb1]

As I said I would... to you!!! I am officially tailing you for the season! Ahh, dang that game sucked!!!

[BookieRobber]

hey naslax13 how often do you post, i dont want to miss your plays..