LKid1's NCAAF Week 7 Card

[Louisvillekid1]

North Texas -6.5 (-110) 3x
Penn St +120 2x
Oregon St -102 2x
USC -6 (-110) 1x
Missouri +8 (-110) 1x

20-12 +11.2 units on Year

I was going to get some write ups tonight, but headed to bar for MLB Postseason, Oh Well.

Hopefully later in week

[Louisvillekid1]

Longshot upset of the Week: Temple +930

Team to stay far away from this Week: Texas A & M

[Jayvegas420]

Longshot upset of the Week: Temple +930

Team to stay far away from this Week: Texas A & M

Thnx
Good Luck

[getthekook]

like it alot man! especially oregon state.. BOL

[Slimpickens]

Id love to hear why you like USC if you get a chance. Seems like lots of people like them this week but I dont get it. Just off the coaching change angle?

[SilverTongueFox]

Id love to hear why you like USC if you get a chance. Seems like lots of people like them this week but I dont get it. Just off the coaching change angle?

It's all about Coach O. Best video ever

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0GOlvSNbqUo&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D0GOlvSNbqUo

[Slimpickens]

It's all about Coach O. Best video ever

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0GOlvSN...%3D0GOlvSNbqUo

[Louisvillekid1]

Slimmer I will get some write ups but if you wanna tail or like these plays bet them now

I'm gonna beat most closers

[wacked]

Longshot upset of the Week: Temple +930

Team to stay far away from this Week: Texas A & M

I'm going to go against you here. A&M after a bye with a healthy Mike Evans (6'5 WR). I see A&M improving, and I'll take less than a TD cover.

[Brutus84]

Live in Michigan but an Ohio State fan. I believe Michigan wins and will get a big boost with Jake Ryan potentially playing. Gardner still must play above average but I believe the team rallies around their stud coming back even if it is only limited plays. Michigan ML for me. or -1 if it gets there

[Louisvillekid1]

I'm going to go against you here. A&M after a bye with a healthy Mike Evans (6'5 WR). I see A&M improving, and I'll take less than a TD cover.

not betting this game so not really going against me...

This has backdoor written all over it at the least!

Good is luck laying points in that stadium with that defense

Live in Michigan but an Ohio State fan. I believe Michigan wins and will get a big boost with Jake Ryan potentially playing. Gardner still must play above average but I believe the team rallies around their stud coming back even if it is only limited plays. Michigan ML for me. or -1 if it gets there

Thanks for the input 84, Gardner gonna struggle to move the sticks big time in that environment

[Terrapin Station]

I like the USC play. I think they will come out strong and stop Arizona's run game. Should be a good Thursday night game.

[Semper Fidelis]

Like all the plays LK except the Mizzou play. Of course, being a UGA alumni I would say that, but I feel good about that game. I won't bet it, don't want to jinx my team or anything, but I have a feeling we'll bounce back from last weekend in a big way at home, despite our injuries. Good luck with the rest of the card bro!

[Louisvillekid1]

Another team to stay away from this week is South Carolina.

Distractions with Clowney all week, heading into Fayetville

[Louisvillekid1]

Going back to the well for my 1st 3x play of the season. They came through very easily for us (2x play) the first time against Georgia and I expect they will again this time around.

The Blue Raiders aren't a very good football team, they started off strong but lets looks at who they beat. Western Carolina (1-5), Memphis (1-3), Florida Atlantic (1-3). They have struggled on offense especially in the Red Zone scoring on less than 70% percent of their visits. Qb Logan Kilmore has really been sub-par this season throwing more picks than Td's and barely completing 60% of his passes. If not for a very talented backfield this offense would easily be one of the worst in the nation.

On the Defensive side of the ball they are very bad. Don't tell me they are in top of the nation in takeaways, because they got 9 in those 3 wins I talked about including 5 against FAU! They give up over 450 a game and can't get of the field on 3rd down.

The Mean Green are in a huge bounce back spot. They are back home after 2 very tough road games @ Georgia & @ Tulane. They are much better at home, as they have a huge win over Ball St (who has cashed for us a few times this year). They move the ball up and down the field over 400 yards per and their QB Derek Thompson is one of the better players you haven't heard of. He is very efficient ranking in near the top in completion %, and has one of the most underrated WR groups in the country.

Under the lights in Apogee Stadium, North Texas will should rack up a ton of yards and easily snap their 2 game losing streak.

North Texas -6.5 (-110) 3x

Expect the line to move to the key number shortly.

No Injuries really to report
Weather Should have no factor
Line moving up from the opener

[Louisvillekid1]

I really wanna bet Mississippi and Arky but just can't pull the trigger.

Starting to develop a very strong lean on Stanford/Utah u 54

[Louisvillekid1]

Michigan @ Penn St (+120) Sat, Oct 12 5:00 PM ET ESPN

Here's another Play I really like this week. Penn St is welcoming in their division rival Wolverines with a WHITE OUT in HAPPY VALLEY. These guys oversold tickets this week, it's going to be complete nuts. It's arguably the biggest game for the Nittany Lions this year, it's basically their Bowl Game. I had Indiana +3/ml last week against them, but a big part of that was because they were going to get caught looking ahead. Also they of course struggle with that style of offense (i.e. UCF).

Michigan comes in 5-0 riding high off blow out win against Minnesota, they have only been on the road once and we all saw that performance (24-21 win) against the awful Uconn Huskies (who btw are still looking for their first win). I'll give Brady Hoke Credit for the Minnesota game-plan because he did finally take the pressure of his young cartoon watching QB Devon Gardner. When they get Toussaint going on the ground, DG can really hurt you with both his PA and running himself. However, If you make them one Dimensional, he really struggles.

Michigan has a few key injuries on the defensive side of the ball that will make it that much harder for to stop the Penn St Offense. They also have a very bad secondary, which adds up to a long day in the Valley.

Penn St's Quarterback Christian Hackenberg could potentially have a big day. This is going to be a physical game that plays right into the home team's hands. Look for the Penn St to pound the rock (they might not pick up a ton of yards) but they will set up some big plays down field to star WR Allen Robinson off Play Action. If they can keep Hackenberg up right, they have an excellent chance at controlling this game.

I think they will stack the box against Gardner and force Michigan to beat them through the air. The White Out crowd will make it that much harder for DG to be effective. Flat out the Wolverines are not that good outside of the Big House, and I don't expect they leave Pennsylvania with a win.

Look for Devon Gardner to get rattled early and most likely turn the ball over. The big plays down the field against the weak Michigan secondary will be the difference.

Penn St +120 2x

Injuries to report
Michigan

Ondre Pipkins	DT	Out For Season (knee)
Jake Ryan	LB	Questionable October 12 (knee)

Weather should not be an issue
Line moving down from the opener of 3

[Huckleberry Pig]

LK you lookin at the UT vs OU game at all?

[King000]

North Texas -6.5 (-110) 3x
Penn St +120 2x
Oregon St -102 2x
USC -6 (-110) 1x
Missouri +8 (-110) 1x

20-12 +11.2 units on Year

I was going to get some write ups tonight, but headed to bar for MLB Postseason, Oh Well.

Hopefully later in week

Which USC? Trojans or Gamecocks

[RavensFan2k3]

Which USC? Trojans or Gamecocks

Trojans

[Louisvillekid1]

Which USC? Trojans or Gamecocks

Trojans

Sorry about that

Same # too

Trojans

[King000]

Sorry about that

Same # too

Trojans

I like that play. Think the gamecocks lose SU was just checking

[JabooFootball]

Thx for the picks LK, Ive been lurking on here for a while before creating the account and you are one of the guys that always seems to contribute the most well thought out picks and analysis. I feel strongly about the USC -6 pick also. I see the logic behind the Penn St ML play, and perhaps I'm just a bit square (I was all over Michigan and the points last week) but I think that the wolverines go ahead early and take the crowd out of the game and Michigan wins handily. Agree that the wolverines are overrated, also agree the gardner is a mental case, I just don't see PSU being the team to demonstrate that this year.

[Louisvillekid1]

Thx for the picks LK, Ive been lurking on here for a while before creating the account and you are one of the guys that always seems to contribute the most well thought out picks and analysis. I feel strongly about the USC -6 pick also. I see the logic behind the Penn St ML play, and perhaps I'm just a bit square (I was all over Michigan and the points last week) but I think that the wolverines go ahead early and take the crowd out of the game and Michigan wins handily. Agree that the wolverines are overrated, also agree the gardner is a mental case, I just don't see PSU being the team to demonstrate that this year.

Thanks pal and welcome to the forum...

[Louisvillekid1]

Cash USC

21-12 +12.2

4 pending this week

[FranchisePlayer]

Love North Texas this week...you like Temple on the spread?

[Louisvillekid1]

Love North Texas this week...you like Temple on the spread?

Lean that way, wouldn't be shocked if they won .

but not putting my green on those bums

[Louisvillekid1]

Oregon St @ Washington St Sat, Oct 12 10:30 PM ET ESPNU

I might of jumped the gun on this Oregon St Play. When Lines came out this game just jumped off the page right away. To the point where I fired a 2x play on the Beavers without thoroughly capping this game. I just re capped this game because I was getting nervous about this play as I really love my other 4 plays (1-0 +1 unit) so far.

Pullman very tough place to play and they haven't been there since the Idaho game all the way back on Sept 14th. You all know about the Mannion to Cooks connection, but Leach's boys are just as dangerous and really getting this offense down.

The total is set at 62 and I just don't see how this game doesn't fly over that. Neither team even attempts to run the ball and this should be a late night shootout keeping East Coast punters up to the early hours of Sunday Morning.

I'm going to buy out of my 2x play on Oregon St and eat the Juice and then Re-pop the Over 2x.

I've never bought out of a ticket in my life, I'm old school raised if you are at the track and lady makes a mistake at the window you have to keep that ticket.

But I just have a gut feeling about this game as the week as gone on. After looking over my notes on this game, It screamed over but I was always blinded by the OSU pick.

SO TO BE CLEAR: I've bet Wazzou -125 2x and Oregon St -102 2x (I'll update the loss in Juice after the Result)

I then Placed 2x on the Over 62

and Good Luck

[JabooFootball]

Good call on the over. Take a look at the UGA Mizzou over (63.5) if you dont mind. Similar number and similar offensive prowess. I dont see how it doesnt go over

[Louisvillekid1]

Good call on the over. Take a look at the UGA Mizzou over (63.5) if you dont mind. Similar number and similar offensive prowess. I dont see how it doesnt go over

Guy,

This total stood out along with the Navy/Duke Total, I don't see how both of those don't fly over. Then the Mizzou line went from 67 to 63.5! I then looked into and see that the injuries to UGA might hinder their gameplan. I decided Mizzou +8 was the better play and actually have that locked in for one of my 5 this week.

Too be honest I'm not the best with totals, I'm working on my handicapping to get better by tracking (air bets) on some NCAAF and NCAABB totals. I also have a 3x and two 2x plays this week so don't like having to much at risk. I'm trying to become a more selective bettor even though I could probably pick more right than wrong.

[Louisvillekid1]

North Texas -6.5 (-110) 3x
Penn St +120 2x
Oregon St/Wazzou O 62 2x
USC -6 (-110) 1x W
Missouri +8 (-110) 1x

21-12 +12.2 units on Year

OSU -102 Wazzou -125 (will eat the juice) Rookie mistake

[JabooFootball]

Understood Lkid,
I think I'll stick to the over. I wanted to lean mizzou, really did, thought about making that my ml dawg play, but decided to take the razorbacks in fayetville against the cocks. I do not like fading Georgia much, and the only totals ive lost the last 2 weeks involved your boy Bridgewater!!!!! The thing that scares me about fading any of the premier programs in the south on a basis of injury is that (and this is particularly relevant at the offensive skill positions) I'm putting money that a 4 or 5 star recruit who would be a starting back or wr at 75% of the programs in the country doesnt play well. I'm also a bit of a UGA homer since Ricth is part of the Bowden coaching bloodline. Two top 25 offenses, QBs far inferior to murray throwing for 65% against Mizzou, Georgia's secondary allowing 3 TDs a game against attacks similar to Mizzous (Clemson and LSU). I gotta go over.

Good decision on OSU though couldnt agree more.

[Louisvillekid1]

North Texas -6.5 (-110) 3x
Penn St +120 2x
Oregon St/Wazzou O 62 2x
USC -6 (-110) 1x W
Missouri +8 (-110) 1x W

21-12 +12.2 units on Year

OSU -102 Wazzou -125 (will eat the juice) Rookie mistake

22-12 + 13.2

[Louisvillekid1]

4-0 + 7 Hundo over pending

[MasterP10]

Nice work today LK1!