week 5 early looks.....

BigdaddyQH · 09-22-13, 12:10 PM

The Cal defense is terrible. They have given up 126 points in three games. Oregon can score 70 points on this team.

Georgia Tech HOSTS Va. Tech. Not the other way around. Ga. Tech is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home vs Va. Tech.

Virginia is at Pitt, not the other way around.

gojetsgomoxies · 09-22-13, 12:19 PM

BigDaddy, thanks for the corrections. i copied them down really fast.... makes those games even better value i think. although i think i did know GT was at home. not sure if i knew pitt was at home. like i said, jotted them down quickly

going against oregon is dangerous..... one thing i will say is oregon is going to score tons on all but the best defenses. so i don't see cal being terribly disadvantaged by that. more a question of how much cal can score (and of course i assume oregon eventually stops scoring alot)

gojetsgomoxies · 09-22-13, 12:21 PM

LSU +3 @ georgia.. LSU been very good this year. georgia not so much

UAB +20 @ vandy.... fade vandy..... UAB is a tail team for me. ugly vs. LSU though

Earlwolf · 09-22-13, 01:12 PM

4 games I really like:

FSU(-21)@BC, FSU shuts the crowd up early and rolls to a very easy win

Arkansas St @ Mizzou(-21) Mizzou really impressed me last night, they can score in a hurry and I doubt they turn the ball over as many times as they did against IU

Arizona @ Washinton (-6.5) Zona can't pass the ball and Washinton has looked great so far, very good home field advantage to boot.

Houston U(-2.5)@ UTSA: not sure why this is - 2.5 for Houston which is clearly the superior team, could be a laugher.

M.W. · 09-22-13, 01:19 PM

I'm with you on most of your plays/looks. I'm against you with Oregon, however. Good luck.

gojetsgomoxies · 09-22-13, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by M.W.

I'm with you on most of your plays/looks. I'm against you with Oregon, however. Good luck.

thanks for the feedback. and thanks to others..

i do find the wsu (vs. stanford) and cal (vs. oregon) feel like "outsmarting myself" picks........

KnockEmDown · 09-22-13, 03:50 PM

Moxie,

My two early plays are: Navy -1 at WKU as they winning big under the radar and playing a team that has been averaging giving up 195 on the ground... eso es no bueno for the Hilltoppers. My second pick, I like Mizzouri -21 at home (NIGHT GAME) vs AKST. AKST is really playing pathletic on the road with their new head coach and saw an improved secondary for the Tigers.
I have to disagree with you on the Y (BYU). Even though I detest them, I think their defense shuts down MTSU's Whatley (had 3 TDs in the OT win at FAU) and on the flip side, MTSU run defense has been ok against subpar rushing teams but nothing to write about. Their only lose came to NC, a passing team. I see BYU running away with game something like, 34 to 9. slight lean on BYU to cover.

as always, BoL!

gojetsgomoxies · 09-22-13, 04:14 PM

knockemdead, thank you for the very interesting suggestion on navy..... i was looking at navy today. 2nd best ATS record (behind baylor.... points clearing ATS) in NCAAF......

i'll have to look into MTSU a bit more.

i won handily on missouri vs. indiana yesterday mostly going on the basic that missouri is a "quiet SEC" team. alot of people don't probably know they are SEC. they see amazing teams all the time and their recruiting must have improved alot.. i see ark state had a really awful result yesterday. those sunbelt teams (former and current) haven't been "gold" this year like prior seasons.

KnockEmDown · 09-22-13, 04:38 PM

Yep, Mizz (and Wyoming) saved me yesterday with an easy win and staying in the green for the day. I really thought the Red Raiders would have came out slinging it down the field but they were held to under 200 in the air and were 4 of 15 on 3rd downs. I knew Memphis had a good rushing defense (for AAC/CUSA/SUN standards) but didn't foresee such low productivity. If Mizz doesn't come out flat (no look ahead excuse here as they are playing Vandy next week) I see a huge win.

Any thoughts on Iowa at Minn? The Gophers' starting QB is a Freshman but looked composed... against weak competition. This will be his 1st look at a B1G team.

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

knockemdead, thank you for the very interesting suggestion on navy..... i was looking at navy today. 2nd best ATS record (behind baylor.... points clearing ATS) in NCAAF......

i'll have to look into MTSU a bit more.

i won handily on missouri vs. indiana yesterday mostly going on the basic that missouri is a "quiet SEC" team. alot of people don't probably know they are SEC. they see amazing teams all the time and their recruiting must have improved alot.. i see ark state had a really awful result yesterday. those sunbelt teams (former and current) haven't been "gold" this year like prior seasons.

KnockEmDown · 09-22-13, 04:52 PM

adding the Fighting I -24 to beat down Mia (OH) for another early look. It's a lot of points but don't let that Cinn (garbage) game fool you. Cinn had the ball for 37 mins and change and couldn't convert on 3rd downs, had 3 turnovers, while holding the Red Hawks to 80 yds in the air and 7! 7 rushing yards. I really like fading ugly teams (especially on the road) and it doesn't get much uglier.

gojetsgomoxies · 09-22-13, 07:41 PM

Originally posted by KnockEmDown

adding the Fighting I -24 to beat down Mia (OH) for another early look. It's a lot of points but don't let that Cinn (garbage) game fool you. Cinn had the ball for 37 mins and change and couldn't convert on 3rd downs, had 3 turnovers, while holding the Red Hawks to 80 yds in the air and 7! 7 rushing yards. I really like fading ugly teams (especially on the road) and it doesn't get much uglier.

i'm not a big fan of fading the perenial (and semi-perenial) awful teams like NMS, akron, UMass (newish team), new mexico, unlv, tulane, memphis. not sure who else....

but i do like fading the newly "doing horribly vs. some expectations (miami ohio, FIU, idaho, air force, west virginia... not sure on tulsa, south florida). the road angle sounds good too (gonna check it out with the horribles)...

when the one poster had a thread about fading every terrible team (but didn't differerentiate NMS, idaho, new mexico from colorado, hawaii, southern mississippi) and i disagreed with him, he'd be doing pretty well so far. crap teams have generally done poorly. a few have bucked the trend like akron, memphis, maybe new mexico, colorado (?).. but alot have been poor ATS so far.

Vinnie Paz · 09-22-13, 09:13 PM

Like ok st, wvu can't keep up even remotely

Thoughts on Boise? -26 I know their d has issues but fukk southern miss is terrible

gojetsgomoxies · 09-22-13, 10:09 PM

Originally posted by Vinnie Paz

Like ok st, wvu can't keep up even remotely

Thoughts on Boise? -26 I know their d has issues but fukk southern miss is terrible

can't see WV doing anything against OKS and doesn't OKS score 50+ all time? WV i think has a terrible D (or maybe it's improved some but from a low base)....

not crazy about boise in general anymore, but that's probably mora against decent teams.... 26 is quite a bit against a team that should have some talent (they don't show it, of course), but i can easily see it boise 21-0 midway thru 2nd quarter so i'd do it.... my recollection is boise is at home and they've been terrible home ATS recently after being good before.

gojetsgomoxies · 09-22-13, 10:18 PM

just for some interesting content, some teams that caught my eye as good and bad ats so far...

good ATS:

missouri
wyoming
maryland
navy
north texas
memphis

two things: note those aren't the top 6 Ats teams just non-top programs that caught my eye... and i rank them points they beat ATS not ATS record.

poor ATS:

TCU (very under the radar)
tulsa (surprising, thought this was "reload" mid-major program)
south florida (taggart was gold at WK, not so great here)
WV (i would fade them every game from here)
fiu (if you've bet on them - me twice - you know how bad it's been)
air force (again, thought this was consistent decent program)

rasheem · 09-22-13, 10:22 PM

Im buying scar-3.5(-178) I dont mind the juice.and also Utah st-6(-162)

KnockEmDown · 09-22-13, 11:19 PM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

can't see WV doing anything against OKS and doesn't OKS score 50+ all time? WV i think has a terrible D (or maybe it's improved some but from a low base)....

not crazy about boise in general anymore, but that's probably mora against decent teams.... 26 is quite a bit against a team that should have some talent (they don't show it, of course), but i can easily see it boise 21-0 midway thru 2nd quarter so i'd do it.... my recollection is boise is at home and they've been terrible home ATS recently after being good before.

The biggest difference is all of their coordinators worth a dime have exited the building. BSU is 1-1 at home ATS this year. When playing inferior opponents, BSU rocks the house. $$$ When playing against teams at home (62-2 SU) that have a pulse on Offense, they win in shootouts. The Flyboys had just enough production in the 1st half to cover, however, the Golden Eagles haven't been producing on O at all this year. They are coming off a bye and maybe they have worked some of the kinks out. Last year BSU won 40-14 on the road. USM is only giving up about 130 yards passing game, but at a completion rate of 65% (slightly better than UMASS). In USM 4 losses they have been giving up more 205 yards a game at 4.3 yd/att. Boise on the other hand has no secondary due to the lack of their getting pressure on the QB but they are decent with the rush defense. If the Eagles can find a way to get their passing game going, this game should be another high scoring affair. I think that BSU will get off to a fast start, control the tempo, and will not look back. Bit of a homer play here, but would bet on BSU at home, at night, vice betting on USM on the road. The line has dropped down to 26 and I am hoping that it continues to drop. If it goes below 24 I am going to hammer it. One other note, Southwick (BSU QB) did hurt his throwing shoulder and looked shaken up in the Fresno game. I will be keeping tabs on his status all week, although their backup is better and more composed in the pocket. IMHO.

About your ATS point system, are you going to bet down the line, something like play the top 10 and fade the bottom 10? I am very tempted to take ISU ML against Tulsa. Need to do some homework. Anyone have a take on this game or is everyone just focusing on LSU/UGA?

gojetsgomoxies · 09-22-13, 11:24 PM

i haven't really had a system but i wouldn't mind starting one. so i may....

thanks for the color on boise............... i agree that boise is "gold" in destroying vastly inferior teams.

thetrinity · 09-22-13, 11:32 PM

im curious to see what hawaii is getting actually.

fresno goes on the road after an emotional win.

hawaii a horrible road team by all accounts, gets shelled by a team that plays much better at home last week (nevada).

gojetsgomoxies · 09-22-13, 11:40 PM

Originally posted by thetrinity

im curious to see what hawaii is getting actually.

fresno goes on the road after an emotional win.

hawaii a horrible road team by all accounts, gets shelled by a team that plays much better at home last week (nevada).

hawaii is funny... arguably they were turning the corner but i went against them anyway last week (terrible on mainland. nevada much better team in recent years, last year's 69-14 hawaii win over nevada nowithstanding)

hawaii should be alot better.... but i get the feeling these up-and-coming breakout programs have the right system/schemes on offense and just look to destroy inferior competition

KnockEmDown · 09-22-13, 11:47 PM

Originally posted by thetrinity

im curious to see what hawaii is getting actually.

fresno goes on the road after an emotional win.

hawaii a horrible road team by all accounts, gets shelled by a team that plays much better at home last week (nevada).

Yeah, me too. The line has to be at least 20 I would think. Carr and his gun is worth 4 TDs and then subtract 1 playing on the island. Wouldn't be surprised to see the line open in the 20's and UH covers. That was a huge win for the Dogs.

Killer_Demo · 09-23-13, 12:19 AM

Originally posted by thetrinity

im curious to see what hawaii is getting actually.

fresno goes on the road after an emotional win.

hawaii a horrible road team by all accounts, gets shelled by a team that plays much better at home last week (nevada).

No doubt Fresno will be favored by 28 or more.

Night-Tripper · 09-23-13, 12:48 AM

Navy -1.5
UAB +20
Colorado State -13
Wyoming -11
Chiefs -4
Seahawks -3

RavensFan2k3 · 09-23-13, 07:25 AM

Texas AM is -3 at Arkansas...that really stood out to me. Whats you guys take?

fried cheese · 09-23-13, 07:49 AM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

Texas AM is -3 at Arkansas...that really stood out to me. Whats you guys take?

i dont think that is a real line unless you have actually been able to bet that somewhere.

RavensFan2k3 · 09-23-13, 07:53 AM

Originally posted by fried cheese

i dont think that is a real line unless you have actually been able to bet that somewhere.

I see what you're saying...what do you think the line will be then?

fried cheese · 09-23-13, 07:56 AM

i think someone said there were places offering -13

Bet10Heinekens · 09-23-13, 10:51 AM

Geaux Tigers ml

better defense

rasheem · 09-23-13, 11:13 AM

I love tex am