Opening: UTEP -3
Current: UTSA -3
Current: UTSA -3
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UTSA beat New Mexico week one. The Lobos beat UTEP. Never seen UTSA play, the numbers say they should be the favorites. Coker being the coach he had to have a few transfers from his Miami days. Not enough info for me to hedge on way or the other. If I had to pick I would lay the points UTEP and both the New Mexico teams are terrible. Would only fade them!Comment -
Injury to UTEP tailback.Comment -
It moved from UTEP -3 to -1 based on injury news for the most part, and while it's flipped to favour UTSA, it hasn't gone to UTSA -3 anywhere that matters. Plus it's Wednesday. Bet early or bet late. Make football betting decisions midweek and go broke...Comment -
I wasn't aware of this rule. No wagering on Humpday? But it's the only time Mr. Potatohead will make himself available at the front gates of his handicapping compound for the formal release of his coveted Potatohead Pix. What should I do, tell Mr. Potatohead that midweek picks just don't cut the mustard? Oh the humanity............he's in the National Toy Society Hall of Fame you heretic.Originally posted by suicidekingsComment -
Not sure that I see the logic behind this one. Why wouldn't you grab perceived value anytime that it presents itself?Originally posted by suicidekingsComment -
Ya know... I really didn't have a problem with you until you basically called me a liar. Then again, maybe you don't consider 5Dimes and BookMaker to be sportsbooks that *matter*. But, for the record, both of them had UTSA @ -3 yesterday (5Dimes for ~ 3-hours and BookMaker for the better part of the day.). And, at this moment, BookMaker has UTSA back at -3.Originally posted by suicidekings
As far as waiting until the end of the week to make a bet... you're either an ass, a newbie, or both. Where I come from, you grab the value whenever you can... be it on Sunday, Monday, or minutes before game-time. For example, I played Indiana +5 and Wyoming -2.5 shortly after midnight, Sunday night. Indiana currently sits at +1.5 -> +1, while Wyoming is -4.5 -> -5. Using your convoluted logic and holier-than-thou attitude, the *smart* bettor would have waited until now, and played the shitty lines instead of grabbing perceived value.
They both may lose, but if you are playing either of those games/teams... you're going to lose with a shittier line than I am.
Oh yeah... have a nice day!Comment -
Only a dumbass would bet a game early in the week at a number that's better than what's available near the end of the week. Smart sports gamblers always wait until the line moves against them.Originally posted by chunkComment -
First, NONE of you can get the opening line. NO ONE in here wagers that much. Some lines move before they are offered to "Joe Pub" (which is all of you in here) and others do not. Next, generally speaking, the line always moves back to it's opener as the week progresses. For examle, Florida opened up at -15.5 against Tennessee. The line climbed as high as 17.5, but now sits at 16.5, headed back to it's opener. Now this does NOT happen in every instance, but is the general rule.
The only way to be successful is to make your own line. On Sunday evening, or whenever you can get a wager down, start checking the lines that you can get. I see that you got Wyoming at -2.5, which is a very good wager. I can get in earlier than you, and I got them at -2, so obviously you had your eyes on this one. That is the way you have to do it. Now there can be some good opportunities at any time, but the basic rule is to wager "early or late" and not in between. And by the way, every shop on line is "insignificant" because of the low limits they give you, the total pain when it comes to collecting your money, and the fact that your money has to sit in an account. You cannot use it, but the Off Shore Books can use it to earn some interest. That is a loser in my book.Comment -
disagree, there are other ways to handicap plays other than originating lines, respect forecasting models, however they are only as good as the information they received, bad input/bad outputComment -
Originally posted by JR007
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Lets get something straight. I have never considered myself to be anything other than *Joe Public* (as you choose to refer to us *mere gambling wannabees*). Even though I am comped Spa Suites at the Golden Nugget every time I go out there, I do not consider myself to be a *High Roller* as much as a good customer (and yeah, I do win).Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
I know that I am never going to be offered the *pre-opening*, opening line because 1.) I'm not in Las Vegas, 2.) Damn near all of my sports betting is done via offshore books and 3.) In Las Vegas, my thing is craps. But, before the lines are ever released to the public, I've already laid out the slate of games I have under consideration as well as the spread-range that I am looking for. Sunday morning, when my offshore books release their lines, if the shoe fits, I'm going to wear it right then... I'm not going to wander around the store and think about it... I'm buying it. Maybe those shoes end up going on sale... don't care... they were at the price I wanted at the time I bought them, so I am satisfied.
As far as being inconvenienced when withdrawing money from an offshore account, I've never felt that way. Should I want to make a withdrawal, I simply submit the request and the money is electronically transferred into my checking account within a week-and-a-half. Now, I do not keep my entire bankroll in any of my accounts... I've got what I feel is necessary in them to be able to make the bets I want without limitations. Should my funds dip below that figure, I will add money to the offshore account. (Either way, the funds I use for gambling have been set aside for the express purpose of gambling.)
Even if I lived IN Las Vegas, I'd still do the majority of my sports betting via offshore, because I like the convenience of being able to point/click/bet without leaving my recliner.Comment -
Care to elaborate on that...?Originally posted by suicidekingsComment -
speaking of the "opening line' there are three interesting podcasts involving philly godfather, over at pregame.com....since they are old (2011) you can find them by google (philly godfather)..... the one on college football strategies, do not know if what he is saying is true, but interesting perspective nonetheless, other's are about the key numbers, and the old don best daysComment -
Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
Look up all of this guys past post. Everyone is him hating on somebody. Strange thing is i never see this guy post his own picks.... IntrestingComment -
I should say making decisions based on market activity part way through the week. Referencing people's love for talking about who the public is on, etc when there's only partial data available and the majority of the money will come in on gameday.Originally posted by Rambo
I look at openers on Sunday and then don't really look at lines much until Thursday/Friday as I feel like you're much less likely to be making decisions when you don't have enough information about injuries, etc. Personal preference, perhaps.Comment -
Never called you a liar. I just disagree with your assessment of the big move on a game I don't really have an interest in. And I certainly don't want to argue about it further...Originally posted by Night-Tripper
Good luck with your bets.Comment
