WIZ's leans and plays

[wizcodlifa]

so no one really follows me, idk why but i dont really care. gonna make this thread more organized then the last one and try to keep up with it.

had much success last week.

so far winning at 62%, low sample size, but very good start

[wizcodlifa]

LEANS for this saturday. ONLY CONFIRMED BET IS CLEMSON -13.5. love this play.


Clemson
Boise St
Georgia Tech
Ball St
Houston
Tennessee/Florida UNDER (BIG)
Tennessee
Maryland
USC
Arkansas
Arkansas St
UL Lafayette
SMU
Colorado St
Stanford
Texas Tech
Mississippi St
Michigan
Hawaii
Texas
UTEP
Indiana
Washington St

[wizcodlifa]

please give me some feed back on these plays. just want some others views on these games! it would be great. i would like to limit these down to about 10. dont want the vig to kill me.

[Pickem2win]

Clemson
Boise St
Georgia Tech
Ball St
Tennessee/Florida UNDER (BIG)
Tennessee--I TEASED THIS ONE TO +24
Maryland
USC--I TEASED UTAH STATE TO +14
Stanford--I TEASED ARIZONA STATE TO +16
Washington St

OTHER SUGGESTIONS--BAYLOR -30, LOUISVILLE -41.5, PITT -4.5

[J.M. Disciple]

I really like Clemson Thursday as well. I think their offense scoring in the high 30s to low 50s will be too much fire power. They are on the road which might be an impact, but i could see them pulling away in the 2nd quarter. Looking at a close 1st quarter though. I am not good at guessing the scores, but if I had to guess 45-31 just barely getting it. If you average out the two games between the two teams clemson is averaging 45 pts a game over last two weeks and NC is averaging 31.5 which is how they got the 13.5. However, NC average overall is much lower than that and stays in the 20s most of the time. I could even see something like 48-24 victory here. I think it really comes down to 1 or 2 big turnovers which help us cover the spread.

Are you playing this for 1u? Some times I like to chase and bet 1st half 1u and if i lose bet 2nd half for 1.5 or 2u depending on the rhythm. Helps my chances of winning. Other times its hard to do that if my book doesn't over 1st half early enough in the week. I would try to lower your plays down a little bit more. Maybe 6-8 plays overall. Your better at picking ncaaf than I am though, so if you can post a lot of action and win thats great. Just give 110% on your plays though. Nothing BIAS or gut feelings.

Thanks for the extra action.

[J.M. Disciple]

Why do you think TENN and FLA are going under Pickem2win? Seems like an accurate line to me.

[wizcodlifa]

I watched Tennessee Oregon last week. Oregons defense is okay, but not great. With the amount of possessions Oregon gives the opposing teams, that increases the amount of points they should score. They scored 14, which means maybe 7 against Floridas defense, which is much better then Oregons.

Also Floridas offense is just brutal, Jeff Driskel sucks, I mean really sucks. I see this score 17-7 ish..

[wizcodlifa]

Also I placed 2 units on Clemson. So 44 to win 40. Honestly might increase it by Thursday. I think Clemson wins by 20+

[Pickem2win]

Why do you think TENN and FLA are going under Pickem2win? Seems like an accurate line to me.

Inept offenses on both sides of the ball. I actually haven't seen the posted totals yet but I think the game will finish out 24-17 Florida. Relatively low scoring game...Teasing Tennessee to +24 is just about a guaranteed winner.

[wizcodlifa]

Clemson
Boise St
Georgia Tech
Ball St
Tennessee/Florida UNDER (BIG)
Tennessee--I TEASED THIS ONE TO +24
Maryland
USC--I TEASED UTAH STATE TO +14
Stanford--I TEASED ARIZONA STATE TO +16
Washington St

OTHER SUGGESTIONS--BAYLOR -30, LOUISVILLE -41.5, PITT -4.5

Not big on Baylor and Louisville. Baylor is do for a slow game, that offense has been insane. Louisville could run the score up but I don't think they will in a automatic win, pointless game. But might add pitt.

[wizcodlifa]

Inept offenses on both sides of the ball. I actually haven't seen the posted totals yet but I think the game will finish out 24-17 Florida. Relatively low scoring game...Teasing Tennessee to +24 is just about a guaranteed winner.

Gonna tease Tennessee as well. I think the cover regardless but just to be safe. Actually might tease it with Clemson. Cuz I love that play. I stick to 2 team 6 pointers or 3 team 10 pointers. Nothing more.

[wizcodlifa]

Would also like for you guys to help me with capping ideas. Right now what I do is view two sites that are full of statistics, and look for run offense/ pass offense vs pass defense/ run defense and past results. Then I look at strength of schedule, then look at there aTS record. Then grab an idea of the spread I think it should be. Then I check sagarins ratings to see what he thinks they should be... Any one have anything to add to this?

[J.M. Disciple]

might do ten, clem, and under Tenn in a 10 pt tease or 7pt. Haven't looked at the odds yet.10pt tease would be clem -3.5, Tenn +27, u57.5. Might throw 2u total on that one.

[J.M. Disciple]

Pretty good list there. I look at past few games to make sure team is scoring a lot. I see teams past two weeks who put up 50+pts then following week are 27pt underdogs. Those are the underdogs usually choose. Line movement is also a key factor. If public is on clem and line drops to -13 would raise some doubts. Average margin of victory. And you pretty much went above anything else i look at.

[J.M. Disciple]

totals i would look at rushing yards to see how much clock a team eats up... forgot which team but they played last Thursday i believe as underdog.... arz maybe. They only pass 8-15 times per game and just run the ball constantly.

[wizcodlifa]

Good adds. Just wanna stop playing so many plays. Would love to limit to the 10 winners. Ha. I guess what I am doing has been successful, so we will see. Any ideas about this?? I feel the 29 something plays above are just many.

[Kubie217]

U guys love Clemson. Nc state it is. Going to pound bc state

[Ari Gold]

Out of that group of games pick 5 that you love and ONLY play those 5. It is just too difficult to win consistenly and long term with that many games. Discipline.

[greypimps]

Clemson has the potential to put big numbers but they also have the same habbit of not scoring.

[weatherhawg]

I'm not so sure the Fla/Tennessee line is off by much... Florida was decent passing the ball against Miami. 22 completions for 291 yards. The problem in that game was red zone scoring...

Combine that with Tennessee's young secondary, uncertainty at qb, and Florida coming off a bye week with a very strong defense in tact. They may only need to score 21-24 to cover.

[wizcodlifa]

U guys love Clemson. Nc state it is. Going to pound bc state

Ha sounds good. Good luck!

[wizcodlifa]

I still love the under. Gonna be a two unit play for me most likely. Florida is straight trash, terrible

[befus]

Please note Arkansas' starting qb is in all likelihood out (not official, but back-up taking all snaps at practice), and the back-up, Derby, is a walk on transfer. No opinion on the game, just a fyi.

[wizcodlifa]

Please note Arkansas' starting qb is in all likelihood out (not official, but back-up taking all snaps at practice), and the back-up, Derby, is a walk on transfer. No opinion on the game, just a fyi.

ha ya AJ, i played against him. hes pretty good. hes huge

[J.M. Disciple]

Having a little doubt on CLEM not sure why. Is there any reason not to take CLEM tomorrow? I am also starting to like the under. I might try and get a live bet in tomorrow or just tease CLEM and Under together. I am finally up on the week no thanks to these pro cappers. went 2-1 on parlays past two days so up around 3 units now after hitting a couple 3 teamers. Tomorrow only one game so I would like to discuss it more so I can be more confident before I bet. I did notice line went up to -14 on my book which is a good sign that CLEM will win. Just want to make sure they cover. Might take them -7 and u 73ish... Haven't looked at the exact total yet.

[wizcodlifa]

im on clemson. love them here. good offense, coming off a bye. ranked third and want to keep it. they will be ready to play. IMO

[J.M. Disciple]

didn't even notice the bye. Good to know. What do you think of over under. Im like 70% on the under here.

[wizcodlifa]

didn't even notice the bye. Good to know. What do you think of over under. Im like 70% on the under here.

Personally. I wouldn't touch it. But gun to head, if take under. I expect. 38-17 type of game

[wizcodlifa]

Arkansas and Texas have been removed. Trying to get this down to my top 10 or so.. Anyone have any insight??

[J.M. Disciple]

I locked in CLEM -7 (-115) 1st half. I will chase 2nd half if they lose.

What about Fridays game?
I like boise and oregon, two of my favorite teams to watch. Haven't really check the stats yet Fridays game, just asking opinion first. I'll research it later.

[wizcodlifa]

I locked in CLEM -7 (-115) 1st half. I will chase 2nd half if they lose.

What about Fridays game?
I like boise and oregon, two of my favorite teams to watch. Haven't really check the stats yet Fridays game, just asking opinion first. I'll research it later.

Oregon has a bye this week. But I'm gonna be on Boise tomorrow.

[J.M. Disciple]

I am not going to play the total. i like the under, but based on this years stats both teams have been going over 1st half and under 2nd half, so I will wait.

[BigdaddyQH]

Clemson
Boise St
Georgia Tech
Ball St
Tennessee/Florida UNDER (BIG)
Tennessee--I TEASED THIS ONE TO +24
Maryland
USC--I TEASED UTAH STATE TO +14
Stanford--I TEASED ARIZONA STATE TO +16
Washington St

OTHER SUGGESTIONS--BAYLOR -30, LOUISVILLE -41.5, PITT -4.5

So did you paly a 3 team tease. You do not just "tease this one". Did you actually play any of these games? This thread looks like a perfect "escape" thread. You can boast about how big your wins are and hide how big you losses are.

[J.M. Disciple]

So did you paly a 3 team tease. You do not just "tease this one". Did you actually play any of these games? This thread looks like a perfect "escape" thread. You can boast about how big your wins are and hide how big you losses are.

Who cares what other people claim to win or lose. If it doesn't put money in my pocket I do not care how much they claim they won, doesn't help my bankroll any.

[J.M. Disciple]

Now I am a little worried. Coworker usually does pretty well with his bets. Line dropped to -13 for CLEMSON and he bought a point to +14 for NC ST (-129) and made a pretty big bet on them. I think there maybe a backdoor cover. Everyone is on CLEMson and line drops, what gives?