week 3 early lines that jump out at me...

[gojetsgomoxies]

oregon -22 vs tennessee

fresno -10 @ colorado

north texas +1.5 vs. ball

EC +7.5 vs VT

akron +36.5 @ michigan

BC +16 @ SoCal... hammer this UNDER..

not sure exactly how i feel but sort of surprised UNLV giving 11.5 to central michigan. what has happened to CM? i see it's moved to 8.5 anyway.

didn't realize some of my picks are openers. realized after making a couple of picks.

it's funny. i do this work in offseason with particular focus on horrible teams (horrible names really) that could improve alot and be ATS gold. but i have a hard time pulling the trigger (and it looks like it's saving me money).... thinking of UNLV and tulane as two obvious candidates.... maybe better to wait for a decent result or two.

[SamDiamond]

The BC-USC game may end regulation 0-0.

I can see the refs getting together in the 11th overtime and placing the ball at the 1 yard line and seeing if either team can score.

[Urbanwildlife]

....

[KnockEmDown]

oregon -22 vs tennessee - Going to take the OVER here unless it's >90. The Vols will be able to score against the Ducks.

fresno -10 @ colorado - Don't trust Fresno on the road. The barely escaped RU at home. Lean CU.

north texas +1.5 vs. ball - Should be a fun game to watch. No play for me.

EC +7.5 vs VT - Should be tight and I could see ECU winning.

akron +36.5 @ michigan - UM O-line huge adavantage here. Don't like betting on bottom tier teams. Too inconsistent.

BC +16 @ SoCal... hammer this UNDER.. - Love the UNDER here unless <30


A few games I like early and will do homework on are:

+4 UCLA at NU - Huge matchup advantages all around for UCLA. NU gave up over 200 rushing yds to WY. Hundley will exploit.

-23 BSU vs AFA - AFA QB injured and status unknown for next game. Week front 7 for the cadets to force pressure, BSU rolls.

-7.5 GT at Duke - *QB Boone broken collar bone out indefinately*. Don't think Duke's run D is as strong this year. will watch the line.

-28 STAN at ARMY - Complete mismatch on both lines. Only way Army covers is garbage scores at the end of the game. IMO

Last game, I see CMU winning or losing a close one to UNLV. Would have loved +11 for this game. probably will put them in my teaser card this week.

BOL this week

[gojetsgomoxies]

thanks for the feedback................................ ..

when i look at colorado i think of how horrible they were last year, but really there's no real reason they can't be semi-respectable this year.

i just think fresno has something to prove................ but it does feel like the proverbial "trap" (which i hate, but i do think it has some merit)

don't like NU, but not sure i want to back UCLA on road. but probably will.

Duke is great fade material this season..... GT should score like mad, and duke probably won't score much. one of those games that points to hugely lopsided score even if yardage doesn't complete shake out that way.

stanford will throttle army. is army good at home though? shouldn't matter.

Boise looks really good. something to prove. have been road monsters the past few seasons (until debacle last week in seattle)

[Brutus84]

Texas Tech ML

[KnockEmDown]

"Duke is great fade material this season..... GT should score like mad, and duke probably won't score much. one of those games that points to hugely lopsided score even if yardage doesn't complete shake out that way."

Duke has made improvements and their D-line/front 7 are respectable against the run... I just don't think they are as good on D as they were a year or 2 ago. I don't see GT winning going away, but I think they can cover the 7.5. Lots of people will bet on the home dog though, so right now I'm leaning the other way. The combined UNDER may be the play. Have to wait on the numbers. I'm expecting to see a line close to 53 for combined points.

[gojetsgomoxies]

knockemdown, thanks for the good analysis on duke/GT....

also, rice -5 vs. kansas sticks out.

you would think rice will destroy them....... but of course kansas has jake heap (heaps?) who was #1 QB recruit in country a few years ago. and dealing in 100% non-denial, charlie weiss is obviously a good offensive coach..... but rice should kill them nonethless........ i thought james sims, the TB for kansas, left the program..

[nvrlose37]

NIU -28 on Idaho
Fresno -9.5 on Colorado
Utah -2 on Oregon St
Rice -5 on KU

[gojetsgomoxies]

NIU -28 on Idaho
Fresno -9.5 on Colorado
Utah -2 on Oregon St
Rice -5 on KU

Idaho must be #1 FADE team right now.... I saw a power rating that had them 10 points worse than 2nd worse, and probably 15 behind 3rd worse. just seems like they can be down 28 early to mid 2nd quarter.