Re: Bowling Green/Tulsa

[Night-Tripper]

A shitload of cash just got dropped on the Falcons.

[SamDiamond]

And the Total of that game.

Interesting.

[surffreak]

All over this game, Tulsa d-line is extremely young, BG's d-line is stacked in almost every position and returned the majority of starters. On the offensive side BG did lose their RB but that is the one position with so much depth and talent. They also pulled a wild card and have samuels best friend who was reciever now starting RB, apparently he had an amazing camp, and no team has any film on him. Dont be surprised if they run all over tulsa

[KornhuskerJ]

Two questions: 1. How do you know that?
2. What does that mean? Sharps on BGST?

[Night-Tripper]

Two questions: 1. How do you know that?
2. What does that mean? Sharps on BGST?

I was doing some shopping on 5Dimes when I noticed the jump, so I hopped over to my BookMaker account and saw that they'd also been popped. From there, just used various line monitors and noticed that every offshore book except Bovada has done some serious adjusting in the past 2.5 hours. Most of the casinos in Vegas have also kicked it up. Looks like pinnacle made the fist move followed by 5Dimes, BetCRIS/BookMaker and then Heritage. After that, damn near everyone joined in.

Either sharps, sharps with a shitload of money, or both.

[SamDiamond]

I have a line service...and NT is right.

The line exploded in BGSU's direction.

[texhooper]

I am almost certain that early line at 5 dimes, I'm talking months ago, was Tulsa -3 or thereabouts. Nothing else has shifted that dramatically from what I can remember from the early openers.

[Night-Tripper]

I am almost certain that early line at 5 dimes, I'm talking months ago, was Tulsa -3 or thereabouts. Nothing else has shifted that dramatically from what I can remember from the early openers.

Yep, and although it may end up being a loser, I'm feeling pfg about the BG +3 I played @ 5Dimes back in July.

[texhooper]

Yep, and although it may end up being a loser, I'm feeling pfg about the BG +3 I played @ 5Dimes back in July.

nice work man! loser or not that is very nice and if it does lose, that's one of the times you can say 'well that's gambling' but know you didn't do anything dumb.

[BigdaddyQH]

What are you guys talking about? BG has been at -3 to -4 since 8/6 in Vegas. For you math whizzes, that is 22 days. They were up to 5 at one time. Even 5Dimes, with their Mickey Mouse Limits, had ths game at -5 on 8/6. Night, if you really think that your BG +3 could end up a loser, middle it out and try to make a big killing.

[Night-Tripper]

What are you guys talking about? BG has been at -3 to -4 since 8/6 in Vegas. For you math whizzes, that is 22 days. They were up to 5 at one time. Even 5Dimes, with their Mickey Mouse Limits, had ths game at -5 on 8/6. Night, if you really think that your BG +3 could end up a loser, middle it out and try to make a big killing.

BDQ, if I thought it was a loser, I wouldn't have bet it. What I'm really saying is, that it could lose, because you, me, and everyone who has done this shit for as long as we have knows, there is no such thing as a fukking lock. Now, that being said, even though the line flipped on the Bowling Green game in early August, it has been hovering between 3 and 4. Today, within a very short period of time, it was kicked from 3.5 -> 5.5 before settling back @ -4.5 at damn near every offshore as well as Las Vegas sportsbook. Now, that may not mean diddly, but if you are like me, and you don't laugh off RLM as meaningless, you know that it takes some serious coin, or serious people, or serious people with serious coint to make a line move > 40% (even if it come down off of its high). As far as Mickey Mouse limits goes, 5Dimes has a $5,000 limit and BookMaker doesn't have one at all... If you have the money in your account, you can put it all on whatever the fukk you want in the sportsbook, I'm not sure what the limit is at the Las Vegas Hilton, but I do know that the sportsbook at the Golden Nugget ain't going to touch that shit.

Now, this is funny.., you constantly refer to offshore books as *Mickey Mouse* and tout Las Vegas in General and the LVH in particular. Well, today, at 1232, at the LVH sportsbook, BG was -3.5 @ -110. At 1253, it was -4.5 @ -110. At 1256, it was -5.5 @ -110. At 1312, it dropped to -4.5 and then dropped another 0.5 point at 1314. AT 1339 it went back to -4.5 and as of this moment, it's still sitting there. (Whatcha think BigBoy... think someone dropped $300 or $400 on the counter at the Las Vegas Hilton and the clerk shyt himself?)

As for middling... I don't do it... never have. If I didn't have confidence in my decision-making, I would have never made the original bet.

Is a 7.5 swing a golden opportunity to middle, you betcha... but my BG +3 is gonna ride it out.

RLM may be nothing but a fairytale, but this fukking game reeks of it.

[Louisvillekid1]

I like it alot as welll

[SamDiamond]

Now, this is funny.., you constantly refer to offshore books as *Mickey Mouse* and tout Las Vegas in General and the LVH in particular. Well, today, at 1232, at the LVH sportsbook, BG was -3.5 @ -110. At 1253, it was -4.5 @ -110. At 1256, it was -5.5 @ -110. At 1312, it dropped to -4.5 and then dropped another 0.5 point at 1314. AT 1339 it went back to -4.5 and as of this moment, it's still sitting there. (Whatcha think BigBoy... think someone dropped $300 or $400 on the counter at the Las Vegas Hilton and the clerk shyt himself?)

Oh, I agree. This BGSU/Tulsa line was stable from the middle of August until this morning.

LVH didn't move the line for the last 11 days--- then today, it moved around like a yo-yo. And, as you pointed out NT, it hit 5.5 shortly after lunch, before settling back down at 4.

My 2 line services sent me an auto text about it being a steam play, with clear notations that volume was moving BGSU's way.

[KornhuskerJ]

All over this game, Tulsa d-line is extremely young, BG's d-line is stacked in almost every position and returned the majority of starters. On the offensive side BG did lose their RB but that is the one position with so much depth and talent. They also pulled a wild card and have samuels best friend who was reciever now starting RB, apparently he had an amazing camp, and no team has any film on him. Dont be surprised if they run all over tulsa

I've been leaning HARD on this one all week for the reasons above. I also saw the spike on my local book from BGST -3.5 to -5.5. Now its back down to -4. Thinking I should jump on it. Any advice? (I'm a newb)

[Fred The Hammer]

Pass for me....BG has the experience to win/cover but Tulsa is just one of those programs that gets the most out of their kids every year even if the coach changes. I wouldn't play against them here.

[KornhuskerJ]

Pass for me....BG has the experience to win/cover but Tulsa is just one of those programs that gets the most out of their kids every year even if the coach changes. I wouldn't play against them here.

Damn you Fred! That is the ONLY thing holding me back!

[Night-Tripper]

Oh, I agree. This BGSU/Tulsa line was stable from the middle of August until this morning.

LVH didn't move the line for the last 11 days--- then today, it moved around like a yo-yo. And, as you pointed out NT, it hit 5.5 shortly after lunch, before settling back down at 4.



My 2 line services sent me an auto text about it being a steam play, with clear notations that volume was moving BGSU's way.

Yeah, that's the only disadvantage I've seen from dropping the paid services with their timely notifications... having to hop from site to site on my own.

Whether or not BDQ wants to admit it, Las Vegas sportsbooks take their cue from a select group of offshore books. As I've mentioned somewhere previously, quite a few Vegas books mirror the lines of BetCRIS/BookMaker... it ain't the other way around.

Good luck this weekend dude...

[Night-Tripper]

I've been leaning HARD on this one all week for the reasons above. I also saw the spike on my local book from BGST -3.5 to -5.5. Now its back down to -4. Thinking I should jump on it. Any advice? (I'm a newb)

• Do not rely on anyone else's perspective in order to reach a decision involving your money.
• Make sure you do as much independent research as possible.
• Remember, just because you see something on an IBB doesn't make it factual.
• Be able to discern the difference between opinions and facts.
• Be cognizant of the fact that every gambler has a personal bias, whether or not they admit it.
• A successful gambler will do their best to minimize the impact their personal biases have on their gambling decisions.
• There is no such thing as a lock.
• Practice bankroll management/do your best to avoid impulse bets
• Don't bet a game just because it's on television
• Avoide major conference matchups if possible. the value can usually be found in the smaller/less glamorous conference games
• Look ahead to the coming week's schedule and either eliminate games that you have decided to avoid, or highlight the games you are interested in. Set your own line-paramaters in advance. If a game has the line you were looking for, bet it, don't wait to see if it'll become more favorable. More often than not, you'll end up missing the boat.
• Don't auto-fade the public/Don't auto-bet with the public
• Don't bet a game just because it indicates RLM. If you liked that side to begin with, just use that trend as an additional favorable reason to make a play
• If you have yet to bet a game that is showing strong RLM, don't bet into the teeth of it... leave it alone... better safe than sorry.

Newb or not, your chances of picking a winner are 50/50... same as anyone here.

[BigDofBA]

Tulsa opened at -2.5 and I wanted to jump all over it. I'm glad I didn't. This was way back....

I follow Tulsa and even goto some of their games. They should be good this year.

Is BG that good? Not sure how Infeel about this game now....

[JR007]

watch line history and keep records of what you see, tedious and time consuming but it pays off

[crackerjack]

One of the football guys on fs1 picked Tulsa for his upset special...

[JR007]

Tulsa has a db who is a good player out ???? Nelson gone for academics ( Senior) posted today, might explain the line movement

[KornhuskerJ]

Appreciate the advice Night-Tripper!

[Night-Tripper]

Appreciate the advice Night-Tripper!

[SamDiamond]

• Do not rely on anyone else's perspective in order to reach a decision involving your money.
• Make sure you do as much independent research as possible.
• Remember, just because you see something on an IBB doesn't make it factual.
• Be able to discern the difference between opinions and facts.
• Be cognizant of the fact that every gambler has a personal bias, whether or not they admit it.
• A successful gambler will do their best to minimize the impact their personal biases have on their gambling decisions.
• There is no such thing as a lock.
• Practice bankroll management/do your best to avoid impulse bets
• Don't bet a game just because it's on television
• Avoide major conference matchups if possible. the value can usually be found in the smaller/less glamorous conference games
• Look ahead to the coming week's schedule and either eliminate games that you have decided to avoid, or highlight the games you are interested in. Set your own line-paramaters in advance. If a game has the line you were looking for, bet it, don't wait to see if it'll become more favorable. More often than not, you'll end up missing the boat.
• Don't auto-fade the public/Don't auto-bet with the public
• Don't bet a game just because it indicates RLM. If you liked that side to begin with, just use that trend as an additional favorable reason to make a play
• If you have yet to bet a game that is showing strong RLM, don't bet into the teeth of it... leave it alone... better safe than sorry.

Newb or not, your chances of picking a winner are 50/50... same as anyone here.

SBR should frame this and post it at the top of every subforum.

Common sense posting like that is a rarity

And its not dickish or asshole(y).

Well done, NT.

[Night-Tripper]

SBR should frame this and post it at the top of every subforum.

Common sense posting like that isn't a rarity

And its not dickish or asshole(y).

Well done, NT.

Thanks Sam... I definitely appreciate your kind words.

[SamDiamond]

NT-- I am functionally illiterate at times.

You do realize I meant to say your post "is" a rarity.

Again, well done.

[Night-Tripper]

NT-- I am functionally illiterate at times.

You do realize I meant to say your post "is" a rarity.

Again, well done.

Damn Sam... hate to admit it, but I *saw* what I *thought* you were intending to say instead of what you actually wrote... so I didn't even catch the gaff until you pointed it out.

and once again, thanks for the kind words.