home field advantage??

[gojetsgomoxies]

i saw someone started a customized home field advantage thread here, but i can't find it now....

here is my attempt at HFA for the last 5 years. and it's home vs. road so good road team will show up as poor HFA

best home field advantage (includes one team at least with insufficient data but i left it there)

UNLV

California

Arizona

Baylor

Auburn

Colorado St

New Mexico

Arkansas

Rice

Colorado

Texas State

Washington

E Carolina

Miss State

S Carolina worst HFA (road warriors?) Minnesota Fresno St Florida St Temple Toledo Penn State TX-San Ant Tulane Boise State Bowling Grn Navy E Michigan W Kentucky Alabama S Alabama Ball State absolute worst is on the bottom.

http://predictionmachine.com/college-football-homefield-advantage

someone else's attempt... a little surprised by UCLA near the top. and alabama and FSU near the bottom (i'm thinking it's because they - alabama at least - are so good on the road)

should note that my ratings have alabama and FSU near the bottom too.

i'm also more inclined to play good HFA or road play vs. POOR HFA or poor road play.

also, boise has gone from being incredible at home to pretty mediocre... i heard they are going to allow blue uni's on blue field again this year.

[SamDiamond]

Boise does have their blue unis back.

That is true.

This is an interesting thread--- Steele does a good job and quantifying home field advantage too. Have you see his numbers?

[gojetsgomoxies]

i have seen steele's #'s that i think you are referring to............... but if i'm not mistaken, he looks at record and margin of victory/loss... but most big conference teams have much more difficult road schedules than home schedules and i'm not sure he adjusts for that. surprised me that he didn't but i'll have another look.

[gojetsgomoxies]

http://philsteele.com/Blogs/2013/AUG13/DBAug05.html

ok, he has some adjustment for opponent.... and his looks more like what a "common sense" HFA would look like.

i guess the obvious question is alabama does so well on the road that it looks like it has poor HFA. but common sense tells you alabama should have an outstanding HFA.... so not really sure what to think...... obviously alabama plays quite a few games that aren't close in score so not sure stats capture that well

[gojetsgomoxies]

i took the analysis back to the past decade.

some teams that have been consistently good/bad:

good HFA: TCU, oklahoma, OKS, cincy, wisconsin

bad HFA: tulane, ND, FAU, Illinois, UAB, Duke, Akron..... looks like alabama's poor HFA is more sparkling road play.

good road: alabama, stanford, boise, navy... again these aren't the best teams on road, but best relative to expectations.

bad road: colorado, colorado state, indiana, idaho, SMU... again relative to either expectations

navy on road is very interesting name to me... non-dominant BCS teams look good at home. something to prove. frustration at losing to elite teams. take it out on lesser teams.

didn't quite make these 10 year lists i posted but arkansas has always been a great HFA team. not sure if that's both fayetteville and little rock (and whether they still do that???)