This list is always longer than the underrated teams. However a few really stand out to me above the rest.
1) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
11th in the coaches poll, 14th in the AP Top 25. Athlon actually has them at 8th. Phil Steele has them at 7th. I think that's crazy...
In terms of defense, the Irish will be great again in 2013. Most of their starters returning and good depth both up front and in the secondary. However, on offense it's a totally different story. Between Everett Golson, Cierre Wood, and Theo Riddick, the Irish are losing 80% of their rushing carries from 2012. At QB, Rees is a moderate downgrade from Golson, and while he should be ok, he's still a guy that has filled a role at ND rather than commanded the position. Even last season, with all of these pieces in place, they were only scoring 22ppg and had a 48% red-zone conversion rate. In terms of schedule, they have a tough run in 2013 with games: @ Michigan, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Arizona State (neutral site), BYU, and @ Stanford. I just don't see how this team can do any better than 9-3, and I think it will be more like 8-4. An elite defense is enough to get them into the mid 20s in ranking, but top 10 is ridiculous.
2) Florida Gators
10th in the AP Poll, 8th according to Phil Steele.
I absolutely loved Florida last season, with their elite defense and special teams, and their power running game. This year, their special teams has been decimated with the loss of Caleb Sturgis to graduation and Andre DeBose's torn ACL. On defense, they lose the mainstays of Matt Elam, Josh Evans, and Johnathan Bostic, along with several other experienced players. Even knowing that Florida will still be good defensively, they will not be elite like they were in 2012.
On offense, I just don't like Jeff Driskel. I think that despite his decent metrics (size, speed, arm strength), he's a poor decision-maker. How many times have we seen him take a big sack instead of throwing the ball away, panic under pressure from the opposing pass rush, or just straight up misread a defensive scheme? I don't think he's going to improve all that much this season, especially considering Florida is losing four of their top 6 receivers (60% of their catches from 2012) including Jordan Reed. It looks like their running game will continue to flourish with the combo of Matt Jones & Mack Brown in the backfield, and their offensive line will probably be better, which will help a lot, but overall, I see this offense continuing to be largely one dimensional.
Then, when we talk schedule, Florida has to go through @ Miami, @ LSU, Georgia, and @ South Carolina, which is just brutal. It will take a miracle for them to get more than 9 wins, IMO, and the deficiencies in their game should not have them sitting in such a highly ranked position.
3) Miami Hurricanes
I can't really argue with the projections that show Miami at the top of the Coastal ACC, but that's where my interest in them starts to fade. Unfortunately, being projected to win a division tends to draw more hype and expectations that to me are going over the top.
Their offense is going to be great this year, with 5 returning starters on the OL, a great QB, lots of solid recievers, and likely a much-improved running game. But on defense, they gave up 486 ypg, and set school records in numerous categories. I just think that this team will need to be scoring close to 40ppg to make it to 10 wins, and ultimately I think this season will be a disappointment.
more to follow.
1) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
11th in the coaches poll, 14th in the AP Top 25. Athlon actually has them at 8th. Phil Steele has them at 7th. I think that's crazy...
In terms of defense, the Irish will be great again in 2013. Most of their starters returning and good depth both up front and in the secondary. However, on offense it's a totally different story. Between Everett Golson, Cierre Wood, and Theo Riddick, the Irish are losing 80% of their rushing carries from 2012. At QB, Rees is a moderate downgrade from Golson, and while he should be ok, he's still a guy that has filled a role at ND rather than commanded the position. Even last season, with all of these pieces in place, they were only scoring 22ppg and had a 48% red-zone conversion rate. In terms of schedule, they have a tough run in 2013 with games: @ Michigan, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Arizona State (neutral site), BYU, and @ Stanford. I just don't see how this team can do any better than 9-3, and I think it will be more like 8-4. An elite defense is enough to get them into the mid 20s in ranking, but top 10 is ridiculous.
2) Florida Gators
10th in the AP Poll, 8th according to Phil Steele.
I absolutely loved Florida last season, with their elite defense and special teams, and their power running game. This year, their special teams has been decimated with the loss of Caleb Sturgis to graduation and Andre DeBose's torn ACL. On defense, they lose the mainstays of Matt Elam, Josh Evans, and Johnathan Bostic, along with several other experienced players. Even knowing that Florida will still be good defensively, they will not be elite like they were in 2012.
On offense, I just don't like Jeff Driskel. I think that despite his decent metrics (size, speed, arm strength), he's a poor decision-maker. How many times have we seen him take a big sack instead of throwing the ball away, panic under pressure from the opposing pass rush, or just straight up misread a defensive scheme? I don't think he's going to improve all that much this season, especially considering Florida is losing four of their top 6 receivers (60% of their catches from 2012) including Jordan Reed. It looks like their running game will continue to flourish with the combo of Matt Jones & Mack Brown in the backfield, and their offensive line will probably be better, which will help a lot, but overall, I see this offense continuing to be largely one dimensional.
Then, when we talk schedule, Florida has to go through @ Miami, @ LSU, Georgia, and @ South Carolina, which is just brutal. It will take a miracle for them to get more than 9 wins, IMO, and the deficiencies in their game should not have them sitting in such a highly ranked position.
3) Miami Hurricanes
I can't really argue with the projections that show Miami at the top of the Coastal ACC, but that's where my interest in them starts to fade. Unfortunately, being projected to win a division tends to draw more hype and expectations that to me are going over the top.
Their offense is going to be great this year, with 5 returning starters on the OL, a great QB, lots of solid recievers, and likely a much-improved running game. But on defense, they gave up 486 ypg, and set school records in numerous categories. I just think that this team will need to be scoring close to 40ppg to make it to 10 wins, and ultimately I think this season will be a disappointment.
more to follow.
