Oklahoma vs. Florida: An early look
Oklahoma vs. Florida: An early look
Over the next three weeks there will be 33 college bowl games in advance of the BCS Championship between No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Oklahoma. The Gators opened as 3-point favorites over the Sooners with that line holding steady at the books so far. With the game being played in Miami, will that home edge be enough for Florida to claim their second National Championship in the last three years?
There are three weeks and 33 bowl games to get through before the mother of all college football contests: the BCS Championship Game between the No. 1 Florida Gators and the No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners. More money will be wagered on this matchup than any other – which means this game requires even more research for a sharp handicapper to stay ahead of the betting odds.
Let’s lead with the gut. The Gators are 3-point favorites with a total of 72 points. Great horny toads, that’s a lot of points. My knee-jerk reaction is to go with the under; these are two excellent defenses (particularly Florida) as well as great offenses, and the betting public is prone to hitting the over. People want scoring and tend to bet with that hope in mind. Market reports are showing nearly 85 percent of the early action on the over.
It just so happens that the Over is on a nine-game winning streak for OU and 6-1 in Florida’s last seven. Oklahoma has scored at least 60 points in each of its last five games, but hold on – this is the Big 12 we’re talking about here. Defense is not this conference’s calling card. Meanwhile, Florida’s run of overs came to an end at the SEC title game against the previously undefeated and defensively sound Alabama Crimson Tide.
The betting market reports also have the Gators getting about two-thirds of the action on the pointspread, but the Sooners are looking at over 75-percent support on the moneyline at +130. Just as you would expect in a tight matchup where anyone can win. Florida and Oklahoma share the same record: 12-1 SU and 10-2 ATS. They were ranked 1-2 in the FBS using Brian Fremeau’s efficiency stats going into the last week of the season. They have the two most recent Heisman Trophy winners at quarterback: Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford. Pick your poison.
Personally, the fact that the spread is exactly three points makes me want to bet the under that much more. It’s less likely we’ll see a 3-point margin in this game than in a typical NFL matchup with half the total, but still enough of a factor that I’m looking for opportunities to avoid a push. The Sooners at +130 would be a tasty option using that line of reasoning.
We’ll revisit this matchup as we get closer to the January 8 kickoff. Will the line move between now and then? Stay tuned.
Over the next three weeks there will be 33 college bowl games in advance of the BCS Championship between No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Oklahoma. The Gators opened as 3-point favorites over the Sooners with that line holding steady at the books so far. With the game being played in Miami, will that home edge be enough for Florida to claim their second National Championship in the last three years?
There are three weeks and 33 bowl games to get through before the mother of all college football contests: the BCS Championship Game between the No. 1 Florida Gators and the No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners. More money will be wagered on this matchup than any other – which means this game requires even more research for a sharp handicapper to stay ahead of the betting odds.
Let’s lead with the gut. The Gators are 3-point favorites with a total of 72 points. Great horny toads, that’s a lot of points. My knee-jerk reaction is to go with the under; these are two excellent defenses (particularly Florida) as well as great offenses, and the betting public is prone to hitting the over. People want scoring and tend to bet with that hope in mind. Market reports are showing nearly 85 percent of the early action on the over.
It just so happens that the Over is on a nine-game winning streak for OU and 6-1 in Florida’s last seven. Oklahoma has scored at least 60 points in each of its last five games, but hold on – this is the Big 12 we’re talking about here. Defense is not this conference’s calling card. Meanwhile, Florida’s run of overs came to an end at the SEC title game against the previously undefeated and defensively sound Alabama Crimson Tide.
The betting market reports also have the Gators getting about two-thirds of the action on the pointspread, but the Sooners are looking at over 75-percent support on the moneyline at +130. Just as you would expect in a tight matchup where anyone can win. Florida and Oklahoma share the same record: 12-1 SU and 10-2 ATS. They were ranked 1-2 in the FBS using Brian Fremeau’s efficiency stats going into the last week of the season. They have the two most recent Heisman Trophy winners at quarterback: Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford. Pick your poison.
Personally, the fact that the spread is exactly three points makes me want to bet the under that much more. It’s less likely we’ll see a 3-point margin in this game than in a typical NFL matchup with half the total, but still enough of a factor that I’m looking for opportunities to avoid a push. The Sooners at +130 would be a tasty option using that line of reasoning.
We’ll revisit this matchup as we get closer to the January 8 kickoff. Will the line move between now and then? Stay tuned.