College Football Betting: Oklahoma vs. Florida
College Football Betting: Oklahoma vs. Florida
The computers say it should be a rematch of the Red River Shootout for the National Championship. But when human input is added into the equation, it will be the Oklahoma Sooners and Florida Gators instead.
A Red River Shootout rematch for the national title? That’s the way the BCS computers would have ended the 2008 college football season. But the human beings in charge have come up with a different solution.
It’ll be the No. 1 Oklahoma Sooners taking on the No. 2 Florida Gators at the BCS Championship Game on Jan. 8 (Dolphin Stadium, Miami). They are the top two teams as determined by the BCS Rankings; the AP poll had Florida No. 1 and Oklahoma No. 2. They’re also the top two teams against the betting odds; each finished with a record of 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS.
Any system to determine college football’s championship is going to leave deserving teams on the outside looking in come bowl season. The Texas Longhorns were actually ahead of Florida on five of the six computer-based systems the BCS uses to come up with its rankings (along with two human polls, both with the Longhorns at No. 3). And Texas also beat OU 45-35 as 7-point dogs at the Cotton Bowl.
Other teams have some reason to grouse over the way the national championship is being handled. When Florida beat the previously unbeaten Alabama Crimson Tide 31-20 as 10-point faves in Saturday’s SEC title game, we were left a gaggle of strong one-loss teams at the top of the heap. No. 3 Texas, No. 4 Alabama, No. 5 USC, No. 7 Texas Tech and No. 8 Penn State are all worthy; so are the two undefeated BCS busters, No. 6 Utah and No. 9 Boise State.
Most of those teams will be able to console themselves with an invitation to one of the four traditional major bowl games. But not Boise State. The ACC and the Big East are represented even though neither conference produced a truly elite team this season. Here’s how the Big 5 bowl games shake out:
The Sugar Bowl is taking the top BCS team, just like they did last year when the Hawaii Warriors were undefeated after the regular season. The Fiesta Bowl took No. 10 Ohio State (10-2 SU, 5-6 ATS) over Boise State; the Broncos will play in the Poinsettia Bowl against TCU. Casual bettors will be prone to undervaluing Boise State, all because the Fiesta Bowl wanted better TV ratings. Ohio State is a fade candidate using the same logic – although the Buckeyes aren’t the same team they were at the start of the season.
But that’s another column for another time. The Broncos and the Buckeyes were both idle in Week 15, as were most of the 120 FBS teams. There was a smattering of regular season games on tap; conference championships dominated the schedule, led by the SEC battle between Florida and Alabama. The Big 12 title game turned out to be as anticlimactic as expected: Oklahoma doused Missouri 62-21 as a 16-point chalk to nail down a BCS berth.
The shock of the Week 15 slate came on Friday night, when the undefeated Ball State Cardinals coughed up the MAC title to the Buffalo Bulls at Ford Field. Ball State turned the ball over five times, four via fumble, to hand the Bulls a 42-24 win as 15-point puppies. The Cards were 12-0 SU and 9-2 ATS heading into Detroit.
Ball State managed to bite the dust in a week where favorites went 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS. Home faves were the hot play at 9-4 ATS (69.2 percent), just enough to tip the balance on the season at 215-214-7 ATS. None of the traditional splits earned a profit this year; the under went 9-7 last week to wrap things up at 330-338 (49.4 percent), not nearly enough for the over to pay the juice. As usual, the books know what they’re doing.
The computers say it should be a rematch of the Red River Shootout for the National Championship. But when human input is added into the equation, it will be the Oklahoma Sooners and Florida Gators instead.
A Red River Shootout rematch for the national title? That’s the way the BCS computers would have ended the 2008 college football season. But the human beings in charge have come up with a different solution.
It’ll be the No. 1 Oklahoma Sooners taking on the No. 2 Florida Gators at the BCS Championship Game on Jan. 8 (Dolphin Stadium, Miami). They are the top two teams as determined by the BCS Rankings; the AP poll had Florida No. 1 and Oklahoma No. 2. They’re also the top two teams against the betting odds; each finished with a record of 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS.
Any system to determine college football’s championship is going to leave deserving teams on the outside looking in come bowl season. The Texas Longhorns were actually ahead of Florida on five of the six computer-based systems the BCS uses to come up with its rankings (along with two human polls, both with the Longhorns at No. 3). And Texas also beat OU 45-35 as 7-point dogs at the Cotton Bowl.
Other teams have some reason to grouse over the way the national championship is being handled. When Florida beat the previously unbeaten Alabama Crimson Tide 31-20 as 10-point faves in Saturday’s SEC title game, we were left a gaggle of strong one-loss teams at the top of the heap. No. 3 Texas, No. 4 Alabama, No. 5 USC, No. 7 Texas Tech and No. 8 Penn State are all worthy; so are the two undefeated BCS busters, No. 6 Utah and No. 9 Boise State.
Most of those teams will be able to console themselves with an invitation to one of the four traditional major bowl games. But not Boise State. The ACC and the Big East are represented even though neither conference produced a truly elite team this season. Here’s how the Big 5 bowl games shake out:
- BCS National Championship: Oklahoma vs. Florida
- Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Ohio State
- Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Utah
- Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati
- Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State
The Sugar Bowl is taking the top BCS team, just like they did last year when the Hawaii Warriors were undefeated after the regular season. The Fiesta Bowl took No. 10 Ohio State (10-2 SU, 5-6 ATS) over Boise State; the Broncos will play in the Poinsettia Bowl against TCU. Casual bettors will be prone to undervaluing Boise State, all because the Fiesta Bowl wanted better TV ratings. Ohio State is a fade candidate using the same logic – although the Buckeyes aren’t the same team they were at the start of the season.
But that’s another column for another time. The Broncos and the Buckeyes were both idle in Week 15, as were most of the 120 FBS teams. There was a smattering of regular season games on tap; conference championships dominated the schedule, led by the SEC battle between Florida and Alabama. The Big 12 title game turned out to be as anticlimactic as expected: Oklahoma doused Missouri 62-21 as a 16-point chalk to nail down a BCS berth.
The shock of the Week 15 slate came on Friday night, when the undefeated Ball State Cardinals coughed up the MAC title to the Buffalo Bulls at Ford Field. Ball State turned the ball over five times, four via fumble, to hand the Bulls a 42-24 win as 15-point puppies. The Cards were 12-0 SU and 9-2 ATS heading into Detroit.
Ball State managed to bite the dust in a week where favorites went 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS. Home faves were the hot play at 9-4 ATS (69.2 percent), just enough to tip the balance on the season at 215-214-7 ATS. None of the traditional splits earned a profit this year; the under went 9-7 last week to wrap things up at 330-338 (49.4 percent), not nearly enough for the over to pay the juice. As usual, the books know what they’re doing.