SEC, Big 12 championship betting preview
SEC, Big 12 championship betting preview
The top two conferences on the college gridirons will hold their championships on Saturday, though looking at the spreads in each game might lead one to think the two games were September warm-ups. Tim Tebow and Florida take on John Parker Wilson and Alabama in the SEC as 9½-point faves while Sam Bradford and the Oklahoma Sooners are laying 16½ to Missouri in the Big 12 tilt.
The Big 12 might be this year’s big kahuna in college football, but for one week at least, the spotlight shifts back to the SEC. Their conference championship features the top two teams in the AP poll, while the best Big 12 matchups were concentrated in the South Division. Still, there are major national title implications in both contests that will keep fans and bettors glued to their TV sets this Saturday.
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 Florida (-9½)
Georgia Dome, Atlanta
Saturday, Dec 6, 4:00 p.m. (ET) CBS
The Crimson Tide cruise into the SEC title game as the last undefeated team among the major conferences at 12-0 (9-3-2 ATS). But the betting odds are on Florida’s side. The Gators (11-1 SU, 9-2 ATS) are 9.5-point favorites on neutral ground in Atlanta; the Tide opened their season here with a 34-10 win over Clemson (-4).
It’s hard to argue against Florida being the best team in the nation right now. The Gators are on a ridonkulous eight-game feeding frenzy (7-0 ATS), winning their seven FBS matchups by an average score of 49-11. This is the mighty SEC we’re talking about here, too. The Gators mauled LSU by 30 points, Georgia by 39 and South Carolina by 50.
But they have yet to face the Tide. Alabama is to defense what the Gators are to offense; the Tide are on a 5-0 ATS streak, allowing just 37 points during that span – 21 of them in an overtime win at LSU (+3). The under is 6-1 in Alabama’s last seven games and 0-6 for Florida. Saturday’s total is 51½ points.
Despite the offense vs. defense spin this matchup is getting, the Gators are ranked third overall according to Brian Fremeau’s adjusted defensive efficiency stats, while Alabama is No. 10. The Tide have allowed fewer yards per play, 4.1 to Florida’s 4.3, but Fremeau’s stats are adjusted for strength of schedule, and the Gators have had the tougher road to the SEC title game.
Alabama is 6-0-1 ATS versus the Gators dating back to 1994; the Tide (+16½) covered when they last met in 2006 despite losing 28-13 in Gainesville. The Tide need to win straight up this time to guarantee a spot in the BCS title game at Dolphin Stadium; a Florida victory almost certainly puts the Gators there.
No. 19 Missouri vs. No. 4 Oklahoma (-16½)
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Saturday, Dec 6, 8:00 p.m. (ET) ABC
The SEC champions will sit down with the rest of us to see what happens to the Sooners (11-1 SU, 9-2 ATS). The BCS computers have Oklahoma as their No. 2 team, so all OU has to do to book a trip to Miami is beat the Tigers (9-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) as 17-point favorites. The Sooners are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS since losing the Red River Shootout to the Longhorns; Missouri is 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS in its last seven outings, a period that began with losses to South Division powers Oklahoma State (+14) and Texas (-3½).
The Tigers are also coming off a 40-37 loss to Kansas (+16) that exposed Mizzou’s problems on defense. This is the No. 56-ranked defensive team in the league according to Fremeau’s efficiency metrics. Oklahoma has the top-ranked offense, with current Heisman favorite Sam Bradford (at 4-5 odds) throwing 46 touchdown passes and six interceptions. It’s a highly unfavorable matchup for Missouri.
However, these are not paper Tigers. They have an outstanding pivot of their own in Chase Daniels (34 TDs, 13 INTs), but his chances at the Heisman fizzled down the stretch with seven of those picks coming in the last four games – and the only Big 12 South opponent during that span was Baylor (+21), who nearly stole the show before bowing 31-28.
The marriage of two high-powered offenses and the dubious Missouri defense is enough to push Saturday’s total all the way to 79 points. Last year’s Big 12 title game saw OU (-3) tame the Tigers 38-17 on a total of 64½. The over is on an 8-0 rampage for the Sooners and a mini 2-0 run for MU.
The top two conferences on the college gridirons will hold their championships on Saturday, though looking at the spreads in each game might lead one to think the two games were September warm-ups. Tim Tebow and Florida take on John Parker Wilson and Alabama in the SEC as 9½-point faves while Sam Bradford and the Oklahoma Sooners are laying 16½ to Missouri in the Big 12 tilt.
The Big 12 might be this year’s big kahuna in college football, but for one week at least, the spotlight shifts back to the SEC. Their conference championship features the top two teams in the AP poll, while the best Big 12 matchups were concentrated in the South Division. Still, there are major national title implications in both contests that will keep fans and bettors glued to their TV sets this Saturday.
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 Florida (-9½)
Georgia Dome, Atlanta
Saturday, Dec 6, 4:00 p.m. (ET) CBS
The Crimson Tide cruise into the SEC title game as the last undefeated team among the major conferences at 12-0 (9-3-2 ATS). But the betting odds are on Florida’s side. The Gators (11-1 SU, 9-2 ATS) are 9.5-point favorites on neutral ground in Atlanta; the Tide opened their season here with a 34-10 win over Clemson (-4).
It’s hard to argue against Florida being the best team in the nation right now. The Gators are on a ridonkulous eight-game feeding frenzy (7-0 ATS), winning their seven FBS matchups by an average score of 49-11. This is the mighty SEC we’re talking about here, too. The Gators mauled LSU by 30 points, Georgia by 39 and South Carolina by 50.
But they have yet to face the Tide. Alabama is to defense what the Gators are to offense; the Tide are on a 5-0 ATS streak, allowing just 37 points during that span – 21 of them in an overtime win at LSU (+3). The under is 6-1 in Alabama’s last seven games and 0-6 for Florida. Saturday’s total is 51½ points.
Despite the offense vs. defense spin this matchup is getting, the Gators are ranked third overall according to Brian Fremeau’s adjusted defensive efficiency stats, while Alabama is No. 10. The Tide have allowed fewer yards per play, 4.1 to Florida’s 4.3, but Fremeau’s stats are adjusted for strength of schedule, and the Gators have had the tougher road to the SEC title game.
Alabama is 6-0-1 ATS versus the Gators dating back to 1994; the Tide (+16½) covered when they last met in 2006 despite losing 28-13 in Gainesville. The Tide need to win straight up this time to guarantee a spot in the BCS title game at Dolphin Stadium; a Florida victory almost certainly puts the Gators there.
No. 19 Missouri vs. No. 4 Oklahoma (-16½)
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Saturday, Dec 6, 8:00 p.m. (ET) ABC
The SEC champions will sit down with the rest of us to see what happens to the Sooners (11-1 SU, 9-2 ATS). The BCS computers have Oklahoma as their No. 2 team, so all OU has to do to book a trip to Miami is beat the Tigers (9-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) as 17-point favorites. The Sooners are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS since losing the Red River Shootout to the Longhorns; Missouri is 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS in its last seven outings, a period that began with losses to South Division powers Oklahoma State (+14) and Texas (-3½).
The Tigers are also coming off a 40-37 loss to Kansas (+16) that exposed Mizzou’s problems on defense. This is the No. 56-ranked defensive team in the league according to Fremeau’s efficiency metrics. Oklahoma has the top-ranked offense, with current Heisman favorite Sam Bradford (at 4-5 odds) throwing 46 touchdown passes and six interceptions. It’s a highly unfavorable matchup for Missouri.
However, these are not paper Tigers. They have an outstanding pivot of their own in Chase Daniels (34 TDs, 13 INTs), but his chances at the Heisman fizzled down the stretch with seven of those picks coming in the last four games – and the only Big 12 South opponent during that span was Baylor (+21), who nearly stole the show before bowing 31-28.
The marriage of two high-powered offenses and the dubious Missouri defense is enough to push Saturday’s total all the way to 79 points. Last year’s Big 12 title game saw OU (-3) tame the Tigers 38-17 on a total of 64½. The over is on an 8-0 rampage for the Sooners and a mini 2-0 run for MU.