Wal's College Week

[wal66]

Tuesday November 25, 2008
7:00 PM
Western Michigan @ Ball St -10

Records:
Western Michigan 9-2 ( 5-5 ATS ) 3-2 on the road.
Ball St 11-0 ( 8-2-1 ATS ) 5-0 at home.

Trends:
Ball St is 15-3 ATS against teams with winning records.

Head to Head:
Ball St is 6-4 ATS, teams are 5-5 SU.

Common Opponents:
Toledo 17 Western Michigan 27
Ball St 31 Toledo 0
Western Michigan 28 Central Michigan 38
Ball ST 31 Central Michigan 24

Offense:
Western Michigan averages 28.8ppg on the road.
Ball St averages 39.7ppg at home. ( excluded Northeastern )

Defense:
Western Michigan allows 28.8ppg on the road.
Ball St allows 18.3ppg at home. ( excluded Northeastern )

X-FACTOR:
Ball St wraps up a dream regular season with a win here. They will move on to the Conference Title game against Buffalo for the MAC Championship. The only down thing is they will not have a chance to get into a BCS Bowl game even with an undefeated season. It’s certainly not a given as Western Michigan can score with the best of the best in the MAC. Unfortunately Western’s defense isn’t on par with their offense. All things are possible in this conference but you just can’t put money in play here and not put it on Ball St.

Computer Program:
Ball St -10.7 so at -10 we really don’t have enough value for a play here.

Play:
Ball St -10* ( like this game all the way to -14)


7:00 PM
Navy @ Northern Illinois -3

Records:
Navy 6-4 ( 4-5 ATS ) 2-2 on the road.
Northern Illinois 6-5 ( 6-4 ATS ) 4-1 at home.

Trends:
Under is 6-2 ATS in Northern Illinois last 8 non-conference games.

Head to Head:
Navy won SU but lost ATS last year.

Common Opponents:
Navy 23 Ball St 35
Northern Illinois 14 Ball St 45

Offense:
Navy averages 27.8ppg on the road.
Northern Illinois averages 25.3ppg at home. ( excluded Townson )

Defense:
Navy allows 30ppg on the road.
Northern Illinois allows 16.5ppg at home. ( excluded Townson )

X-FACTOR:
When Navy shows up you atleast know what to expect. They are going to run, run, run and when in doubt they will run. This is actually a good thing for Northern Illinois because they are decent against the run. I like Navy in this spot though. It’s more of a hunch than anything else. My only real concern is the fact that Navy’s big game is next week against Army. Not sure if this classifies as a look ahead spot like in some big conference battles.

Computer Program:
Navy -1.9 so at +3 we have some value here.

Play:
Navy +3*

[pags11]

GL this week wal...

[spongerat]

i think this is a big lookahead spot for navy as the army navy game is huge for them

[wal66]

Thanks pags.

spongerat.......there is the potential for the look ahead I agree. I did consider this while doing the work into this game. My personal feelings about that aspect where that while traditionally the Army Navy game has always been a huge rivalry it kind of has gotten not so big for Navy in recent years. Yes they still get up for it, yes they still want to win it, yes for the accademy it still hold honor and merrit. My thinking is though that Navy kind of expects to win. When you already expect to win it's harder to look ahead. Just my personal take and I could be completely wrong.

I'm more concerned about Northern Illinois deciding to throw the ball and being able too. Navy can ill afford to get behind early. If that happens then I have lost the game for sure.

[spongerat]

would you consider a hedge at halftime if navys starting to get shelled? or are they a 2half comeback team

[guru-t]

GL this week wal.

[wal66]

would you consider a hedge at halftime if navys starting to get shelled? or are they a 2half comeback team

If Navy trails at the half I would certainly consider the hedge play. I know they almost came from behind on Notre Dame but how often are you going to get two chances to pull off an onsides kick. Navy's offense isn't made for come from behind wins. They have to get out front and control the clock.

[wal66]

GL this week wal.

Thanks guru, I'm sure I'll need it. Already I seem to be the minority on both games tonight. Cappers minority atleast. I know the points in the Western game are very inviting I just feel comparing the two games played against Central Michigan clinched this one for me. We'll see how it goes. Plenty of good games this week to catch up if tonight goes badly.

By the way GREAT run Saturday. I really thought you were gonna sweep the board there.

[wal66]

I'll take a 2-0 start to the week.

[guru-t]

Well,no catchin up to do.Nice job Wal.Now it's time to build off of that 2-0.A better alternative than having to catch up huh?I should have cashed tonight but decided to stay away altogether.I'm trying something huge on Friday.I really like UTEP alot.A whole lot.Not new to capping but new to the forum as this will be embarassing if UTEP happens not to come through for me on Friday seeing how I through it out there the way I did.The line started at 3.5 and went up to 5.5 which some of our forum friends got on my thread and was basically warning me about it.I appreciated the heads up,but I am one capper that doesn't overreact to line movements especially early in the week when the betting public was not heavily involved yet.ECU wasn't even a top ten consensus pick.All that tells me is that the oddsmakers thought that they sat the line too low at the onset which I believe is really going to work in my advantage.Damn.I'm done.Sorry,I just got into that game and couldn't quit.Congrats again for a great start to the week!

[wal66]

Friday November 28, 2008
12:30PM
Ohio -1 @ Miami-Ohio

Records:
Ohio 3-8 (5-4-1ATS) 1-5 on the road.
Miami-Ohio 2-9 (4-5ATS) 1-4 at home.

Trends:
Over is 9-4 ATS in Ohio’s last 13 conference games.
Miami-Ohio is 2-7 ATS against teams with a losing record.

Head to Head:
Miami-Ohio is 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS.

Common Opponents:
Buffalo 32 Ohio 10
Miami-Ohio 17 Buffalo 37
Ohio 26 Kent St 19
Kent St 54 Miami-Ohio 21
Ohio 10 Temple 14
Temple 28 Miami-Ohio 10

Offense:
Ohio averages 16.3ppg on the road.
Miami-Ohio averages 15ppg at home.

Defense:
Ohio allows 22.8ppg on the road.
Miami-Ohio allows 36.7ppg at home.

X-FACTOR:
When I initially looked over the games I figured Miami-Ohio was the play if I chose to play this game. The game would have been a pass period except the program gave a slight edge to Ohio and since they were getting points it mandated looking into. Still after looking at the numbers the game was still going to be a pass until the RLM (reverse line movement). So as hard as I tried to stay away from this game things kept drawing me back in.

Computer Program:
Ohio -1 so at -1 we have no value here but since it opened at +1 it becomes at least worth a small risk.

Play:
Ohio -1*


My next selection is something I rarely ever do. I have tried a couple thus far this season and failed at it. I have a negative mark for teasers because I suck at them. I want to try and get that number out of the red and this is what I have come up with.

3-Team 10-Point Teaser
Texas -25.5
Central Michigan pk
Nebraska -8
2-Units

[wal66]

guru no need to apologize about talking about on of your thoughts on a game in this thread. I'm just glad someone stops by doesn't matter if it's about my game or their mother's brownie recipe.

I initially liked ECU in that game but they have been so bad at covering lines ever since the NC State game. After looking into it I liked UTEP as well but didn't have enough value margin to make it a play.

I hope you hit your big play and have a great weekend of games.

[wal66]

Would be having a very good week if not for that extra unit on the teaser.

[wal66]

I've had a very good week this week with the exception of that teaser. I am a firm believer in jinx's but it's too late and I am too tired to do a write-up like I usually do. Even without the jinx factor I would caution everyone on these plays. I have done the normal work with the addition of waiting till almost the last minute to post them out waiting to see what the lines were doing all week. I have several more plays than the ones I am posting here but these are the strongest when you add line movement and percentages with them.



Plays:



Boston College -7

Kentucky +3.5

Rice +3

UAB +8

[wal66]

Boston College..................Winner
Rice................................Winn er
UAB................................Winne r

Kentucky.........................Pending

[wal66]

Friggin Tennesse. Ruined what could have been a special week.

[guru-t]

Still a nice job WAL66.I split my board but if OKLA comes through,everything will be just fine.

[wal66]

Still a nice job WAL66.I split my board but if OKLA comes through,everything will be just fine.

Thanks guru and congrats on Oklahoma coming through.

I'm happy with the results. I came to this site later in the season but on my regular site where I have been for years I wrapped up my best season ever. Finnished 63% all documented for the college season. Never even finnished the season with anything in the account before and this season was wow. Hopefully I've learned some things that might finally start to carry over.

[guru-t]

Yeah.Congrats.Had a great year myself.Are you going to take it easy during the bowl season or hit it hard?

[wal66]

Yeah.Congrats.Had a great year myself.Are you going to take it easy during the bowl season or hit it hard?

Not sure if I will play larger or not depends on the situation. The one thing I will do during the bowls though is atleast cap every game. Regular season I only do certain ones that fit a specific qualifier. During the bowls though enough time to get in-depth with them all. Can't wait personally.

[guru-t]

One thing that seems to work for me over the years is I look at the matchup between conferences in these games.Thats definitely the only thing I look at.Looking forward to making some money with ya this bowl seasonWAL!