Front Page NCAAF Picks (Week 13, Nov 18-22)

Willie Bee · 11-19-08, 11:03 AM

Ole Miss Rebels +4½ stay close on road at LSU Tigers

Game Time: 11/22/2008 03:30 PM -
By: Cajun Sports | cajun-sports.com

Mississippi's Houston Nutt knows what it takes to win in Baton Rouge and the Rebels have hung tough with the best of the SEC this year. Back Ole Miss at the LSU Tigers.

We gave our readers of this column another nice winner again last weekend with UCLA defeating Washington 27-7 as our “Towel Tossing” System produced another easy winner. This week we take a look at a conference matchup that is keyed by revenge and becomes the perfect 'conference avenger.'

After surviving a scare last week, LSU hosts an opponent that is not intimidated by Tiger Stadium or the Tigers themselves. The 18th-ranked Tigers return to SEC play Saturday against Mississippi on the heels of the biggest comeback in school history. Coming from behind has been very familiar for LSU at home against Ole Miss.

The Tigers have won six in a row against Ole Miss overall but won the last three at home by a combined seven points, including a 23 to 20 overtime win back in 2006. LSU trailed in the third quarter of each of those games after losing the previous three meetings in Baton Rouge.

The Tigers were also behind in the third quarter last week against SBC opponent Troy by 28 points. They responded with 37 unanswered points with 30 of them coming in the fourth quarter for a 40 to 31 win over the Troy Trojans.

Ole Miss has taken ranked teams to task this season with a couple near-misses and one huge win. They lost 30-28 to then-No. 20 Wake Forest on a late field goal Sep. 6 and fell 24-20 to current No. 1 Alabama on Oct. 18. But their most impressive game of the season was a 31-30 road win over No. 4 Florida on Sept. 27.

One more note: Before coming over to Ole Miss in the offseason, head coach Houston Nutt led an unranked Arkansas team into Baton Rouge last year and emerged with a 50-48 triple-overtime win. The defeat ended a 16-game home winning streak for the Bengal Tigers, which rebounded to win the SEC Championship and National Championship.

We have a system that is active in this matchup and it says to play on a .500+ conference team (not a favorite of 3+ points or underdog of 22+ points) with less than 11 days rest off a lined, non-conference shutout SU win and seeking revenge for an underdog/pick ‘em SU loss in the last matchup vs. an opponent not off a SU win of 17+ points and ATS win of more than 11 points in their last game. This system has posted a record of 17-0 ATS since 1982 and averages covering the spread by 13.0 points per game.

Good luck with the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday.

Free Pick: Mississippi +4½ (-110)

Willie Bee · 11-20-08, 11:18 AM

Arkansas Razorbacks -1½ to go hog wild at Mississippi State

Game Time: 11/22/2008 02:30 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Mississippi State has the worst offense in the SEC, and while their defense is good against the run, they should have trouble with the Arkansas passing game. Go Hogs.

The Arkansas Razorbacks and the Mississippi State Bulldogs may be the two worst teams in the SEC, but at least Arkansas can score and that should make all the difference here.

Mississippi State is one of the most offensively challenged teams in the country, as the Bulldogs are averaging 15.2 points and only 284.1 total yards of offense par game this year. Even those modest numbers are padded by a couple of outbursts vs. weak non-conference opponents (SE Louisiana, Middle Tennessee State), as the Bulldogs are average just 11.0 points in SEC play with their only conference win being by a 17-14 score vs. Vanderbilt.

Now Arkansas may be 4-6, but they are on a 4-1 run against the spread and they have scored at least 20 points in five straight games. Given the struggles of the MSU offense, 20 points may be enough to win this contest.

New coach Houston Nutt has transformed the Razorbacks into a passing offense, as they are averaging 250.2 passing yards per game. Sure, Casey Dick has been inconsistent while throwing 14 interceptions vs. 11 touchdown passes, but he does have nearly 2400 passing yards, and the way to beat this MSU defense is with big plays, as they are allowing only 3.9 yards per rushing attempt.

Look for Dick and the Arkansas offense to produce enough points to get out of here with a road win.

Free Pick: Arkansas -1½ (-110)

Willie Bee · 11-20-08, 11:19 AM

Tulsa Golden Hurricane -28½ to rout Tulane Green Wave

Game Time: 11/22/2008 03:00 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | experts.covers.com

After being humiliated 70-30 by Houston last weekend, Tulsa is an angry football team. Look for the Golden Hurricane to take it out on the Tulane Green Wave.

Laying over four touchdowns may seem like a lot but not in this case. Tulsa comes into this game off two straight setbacks, the last coming on Saturday in Houston to the tune of a 70-30 loss. The Golden Hurricane want nothing more than to take its frustrations out on an opponent and what better one than Tulane.

After starting the season 8-0, Tulsa has not looked like the same team since, but they still lead the nation in total offense and don’t be surprised to see them not let up at all here.

Tulane started the year very promising with a 2-2 record through the first four games that included a narrow loss to East Carolina and a loss at Alabama where the Wave actually outgained the Tide. Since then, it has been six straight losses that all started with a 31-point thumping by Army and it has never recovered. The Green Wave have been outgained in each of their last five games as the once stout defense has fallen apart and injuries have taken their toll on the offensive side.

First it was wide receiver Jeremy Williams, who was having a breakout season through five games before being lost with a leg injury and then running back Andre Anderson, who was 4th in the nation with 860 rushing yards through five games before being lost for the season with a shoulder injury. Since then the offense has averaged only 16.3 ppg and has plummeted to 108th in scoring offense. Tulsa has no defense as witnessed last weekend but Tulane simply does not have the players to take advantage.

Two weeks ago, Tulane had the top-ranked defense in C-USA but has since dropped to third after allowing 1,119 yards over the last two games. Now they must face their biggest challenge of the season. The Golden Hurricane are averaging 583.8 ypg and even a poor effort last week against Houston resulted in 501 total yards. They have gone over 600 yards five times and over 700 yards once and it would not be surprising for them to make it twice after this matchup.

Tulane is coming off a bad loss to UAB and that happened to be at home, which was also its last home game of the season. There is still one game after this but it is safe to say Tulane has tossed it in for the season. Tulsa, while the BCS dreams are dashed, is still hunting for the C-USA Championship despite the loss last week. The Golden Hurricane will need some help from UTEP or Rice to defeat the Cougars but the motivation is still there. Expect a complete annihilation on Saturday in the home finale for Tulsa.

Free Pick: Tulsa -28½ (-110)

Willie Bee · 11-20-08, 11:20 AM

Boise St. Broncos -6 stay unbeaten at Nevada Wolfpack

Game Time: 11/22/2008 04:05 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

Still unbeaten and with a shot for a BCS bid, Boise State takes their 10-0 record into Reno's Mackay Stadium on Saturday where the Broncos should cover against Nevada.

Boise State enters into this WAC Conference tilt against Nevada as one of five Bowl Subdivision teams that remains undefeated on the season with a perfect 10-0 record. The host Wolfpack own a 4-2 record in conference play and are 6-4 on the season, and would love nothing more than to upend the Broncos bandwagon.

The Broncos in my opinion have gotten stronger and more cohesive on both sides of the rock with each successive outing this season, with the average margin of victory ringing in at 16.8 PPG, with no win coming by less than 13 points. They will be very ready for a football program that they have defeated eight straight times, while covering the number seven times.

The most recent confrontation which occurred in this series was a seesaw battle, that resulted in a 69-67 OT victory for Boise State. That victory was the Broncos third-straight under this venue.

The bottom line here is the Broncos offense can go toe-to-toe with any offense in this nation, including Nevada's vaunted attack. The ultimate difference maker in this matchup, however, comes on the defensive side the ball where Boise is among the nation's elite stop units, ranking first in their conference and second in the country allowing just 10.3 PPG.

Final Notes & Key Trends: Boise State is 27-8 in their last 35 November games with the average margin of the victory clicking in at 26.2 PPG.

Projected Score: Boise St-41 Nevada-30

Free Pick: Boise State -6 (-110)

Willie Bee · 11-20-08, 11:21 AM

Virginia Cavaliers +2½ at home vs. Clemson Tigers

Game Time: 11/22/2008 12:00 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

The winner of this ACC clash will be bowl eligible, and home field advantage should give the edge to the Virginia Cavaliers as small home dogs vs. the Clemson Tigers.

Our Saturday ACC football selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers plus the points at home in Scott Stadium over the Clemson Tigers.

Last week, UVa dropped its second straight game, 28-17 at Wake Forest, and Al Groh's men are now 5-5 on the year. Clemson also is 5-5, and the winner of this game will have achieved Bowl Eligibility status.

Let's play on the Cavaliers here as Virginia is 17-1 ATS at home vs. ACC foes, provided Virginia lost its previous game, did not cover the spread in that loss, and is not laying three or more points. Take Virginia.

Free Pick: Virginia +2½ (-110)

Willie Bee · 11-21-08, 11:03 AM

Purdue Boilermakers -11 send Joe Tiller out with win vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Game Time: 11/22/2008 12:00 PM -
By: Dave Malinsky | experts.covers.com

The Boilermakers should be jacked up as Joe Tiller coaches his final game for the school. Look for Purdue to top the Indiana Hoosiers and claim the Old Oaken Bucket.

Just another late-season game between two losing teams going through the motions? This is anything but that on one side of the equation, and we believe that Joe Tiller not only gets a chance to carry away the Old Oaken Bucket one last time, but does it in style. So in the kind of game in which the oddsmakers often struggle to incorporate the emotional factors properly, we have a most fair line to play a Purdue blowout.

The Boilermaker run under Tiller has been a special one, with 10 bowl appearances. And he has been more than a football coach at the university, also being awarded the “Order of the Griffin,” a special Purdue honor that is not tied to athletics. That means not only a concerted effort by the players to send him out with a final win, but also more than the usual fan support for a losing team playing their last game. And with 17 seniors slated to start for the last time on this field the emotion runs particularly deep, especially for QB Curtis Painter, who is finally healthy again, and can erase some of the memories from a disappointing season by exploiting a papier-mache Indiana defense.

Can Indiana make the same claims about wanted to erase bitter memories, and for the seniors to go out in style? No, it is an entirely different situation for the Hoosiers. Depth has been an annual problem for this program as the Big 10 battles take their toll, and note that they are an awful 4-13 ATS as underdogs in the last three games of the season since 2002.

But this autumn it has been even worse. Because of injuries a total of 16 different starters have missed at least one game, and the area hardest hit has been the secondary, where starting safeties Nick Polk and Austin Thomas, and starting CB Chris Phillips, have all been lost for the season. Because of this there is simply nothing left in the tank on that side of the ball, having allowed averages of 42 points and 518.3 points per game in three November outings, and against Wisconsin and Penn State the past two weeks they were out-scored 58-0 in the second half, a tell-tale sign that there is no fight left. And note that as bad as those two games were on the scoreboard, Indiana was actually +6 in turnovers over those eight quarters!

It is more than just emotion here for Purdue – this is a team that could have been much better than the results if not for so many injuries. But not only is Painter as close to full health as he has been in quite some time, Eric Hedstrom and Sean Sester will also be returning in the OL, after each missed the last two games. The pieces were back in place for a blowout anyway, but the special nature of Saturday’s setting pushes the rest of it over the top.

Free Pick: Purdue -11 (-110)

Willie Bee · 11-21-08, 11:08 AM

North Carolina St. Wolfpack +10½ at North Carolina Tar Heels

Game Time: 11/22/2008 12:00 PM -
By: Tony George | 10starpicks.com

This is North Carolina State's bowl game, so expect maximum effort against their ACC rivals. Take the Wolfpack and the points in Chapel Hill against the UNC Tar Heels.

Nothing comes easy in the ACC, except if you are Georgia Tech these days! North Carolina has done a great job with Butch Davis as head man, and have surporised many with their play this season. The Tar heels however have some holes on both sides of the ball. In the ACC, there is parity. The difference between the best and the worst is really not more than a few plays in a game in any instance.

NC State is a cover machine going 7-1 ATS their last eight games and they are riding a freshman sensation in QB Russell Wilson who has tossed out 12 TD passes in his last six games while throwing no picks in the process.

If you look at the stats in the last three games these two have played this year, the stats are almost dead even, and this is a rivalry game with pride on the line for the Wolfpack. Their ability to run it and having a QB with confidence with nothing to lose, as this is their bowl game this season, leads me to look for a cover here in a tight game.

Losing All-World WR Brandon Tate for NC took away a huge threat for them and big play capabilities. This one is a nail biter for Tar heel fans. Take the points and NC State.

Free Pick: North Carolina St. +10½ (-110)

Willie Bee · 11-22-08, 10:06 AM

Notre Dame Fighting Irish -19½ vs. Syracuse Orange

Game Time: 11/22/2008 02:30 PM -
By: Cajun Sports | cajun-sports.com

The Fighting Irish should be poised for a big day in their final home game of the season. Lay the points on Notre Dame Saturday when they host the Syracuse Orange.

The Fighting Irish wrap up their home slate this weekend, as they host the Orange in South Bend. Notre Dame enters the bout on a high note, as they prevailed over Navy 27-21 last weekend. The triumph put the breaks on a two-game slide and pushed the team to 6-4 overall, making the team bowl eligible.

As for Syracuse, its struggles continued last weekend with a 39-14 setback to Connecticut. A day after that result, the team learned that head coach Greg Robinson was fired, although he is finishing out the remainder of the season with the team.

The Orange haven't had much success on offense this season, averaging just 18 ppg and only 271 total ypg. Syracuse quarterback Cameron Dantley has not provided the team with a passing threat this season. Last week he was under heavy pressure by the UConn defense and responded by throwing for just 38 yards and an interception on 4-of-16 pass attempts.

Syracuse hasn't fared much better on defense, as the unit is allowing 34 ppg and 423 total ypg to opposing squads. The Orange has been burnt for over 200 ypg each on the ground and through the air and has notched a mere 10 sacks.

Compared to a year ago, the Irish have done well on offense, gaining 127 rushing ypg and 245 passing ypg. Last weekend, they overcame five turnovers by rushing for 230 yards in the win over Navy. Quarterback Jimmy Clausen completed an efficient 15-of-18 pass attempts against the Middies and is having a decent campaign with over 2,400 yards and 18 TDs.

The Irish have been pretty consistent on defense this year and they are giving up less than 21 ppg and 316 to the opposition. The team is limiting foes to 137 ypg on the ground and 180 ypg through the air, while forcing 18 turnovers. Despite a near collapse at the end of last weekend's game, the defense was rather stout, holding Navy to only 242 total yards.

There is little life left in the Syracuse team whose main concern is now who will be coaching them next season. No doubt, Robinson is already making his post-Syracuse plans, while the soon-to-be-ex-assistant coaches are getting their resumes freshened up and trying to figure out where they’ll be in working in a couple of weeks.

The Orange are 0-5 SU & ATS as a non-conference underdog last two seasons and 0-7 ATS (-12.8 ppg) in non-conference SU losses the past two seasons. Teams off a couple of horrible performances as significant underdogs, which Syracuse is, have continued to play poorly in late-season games. This is confirmed by an NCAA Football Power System that the Orange qualify for, which states:

"From Game 8 on, play against a road/neutral site team (not a favorite of more than 7 points or underdog of more than 32 points) off SU losses & ATS losses of 13+ points as underdogs of 9+ points and scoring less than 21 points in each of its last two games."

Since the start of this database in 1980, these teams are 0-12 SU (-27.7 ppg) & 0-12 ATS (-14.2 ppg). It’s 1-0 this season, as Washington State lost 58-0 at Stanford as a 30-point underdog, failing to cover by 28 points.

Meanwhile, the Irish have the pressure off from beating Navy and qualifying for a bowl. Now, they can focus on improving their bowl position and should be ready to roll here. Notre Dame is 9-0 SU (+24.1 ppg) & 9-0 ATS (+12.9 ppg) at home and not favored by more than 24 points vs. sub-.400% opponents, along with being 7-0 SU (+31.3 ppg) and 6-0-1 ATS (+12.1 ppg) off scoring 25+ points and before playing USC.

With the Trojans on deck, we look for the Fighting Irish to close out their final home game of the season with a crushing win over the Orange.

Projected Score: Notre Dame-35 Syracuse-10

Free Pick: Notre Dame -19½ (-110)

Willie Bee · 11-22-08, 10:07 AM

Michigan Wolverines +20½ at Ohio State Buckeyes

Game Time: 11/22/2008 12:00 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Not much shine on this longtime rivalry with the down season that Michigan has had, but the Wolverines should play hard and stay well within the number today at Ohio St.

The Michigan Wolverines look to put an end to the most disappointing season in school history when they take on the Ohio St. Buckeyes in the Horseshoe at Columbus today.

Despite Michigan's abysmal season they have shown a spirited effort in their last two games, holding both Northwestern and Minnesota to season-low yardage marks. The Wolves are 16-4 ATS as dogs of more than 4 points and have never lost five games in a row to Ohio State in this storied series.

In the two games they played after losing each of the previous four years to the Buckeyes, Michigan blanked OSU, 18-0 and 10-0, to snap the losing skids. In addition, Ohio State has not scored an offensive touchdown in Columbus since they hosted Minnesota the final week in September. The last time Michigan was anywhere near his large of a dog in this series they upended the Buckeyes, 13-6 at 17-point puppies in 1996 here in Columbus.

Don't be at all surprised if this game comes down to who ever scores last wins it. Grab the generous points with the Wolverines. We recommend a 1-unit play on Michigan.

Free Pick: Michigan +20½ (-110)

Willie Bee · 11-22-08, 10:08 AM

Take Tennessee Volunteers +3 at Vanderbilt Commodores

Game Time: 11/22/2008 12:30 PM -
By: Ted Sevransky | experts.covers.com

It's been a horrible season for the Volunteers who are 3-7 overall and just 1-5 in the SEC. But Tennessee can atone for that with a solid effort in Nashville vs. Vanderbilt.

Things went from bad to worse for Tennessee immediately following Philip Fulmer’s resignation, effective at the end of the season. The Vols had been struggling mightily prior to Fulmer’s announcement – heck, if they weren’t doing so poorly, he wouldn’t have quit.

Then came the 13-7 home loss to Wyoming, as 25-point chalk, as embarrassing a performance as we’ve seen out of Tennessee since their wipeout loss to Maryland back in the 2002 Peach Bowl. The Wyoming game came at the end of a brutal stretch for the Vols. They hadn’t had a bye since Week 2; had just suffered embarrassing beat-down losses at the hands of Alabama and South Carolina; and saw their head coach, under tremendous fire, announce his resignation, effective at the end of the season. No wonder they came out flat!

Now the Vols are rested and ready to take on their in-state foe, in the midst of a far better season than Tennessee is having. The Vols have absolutely dominated this series, winning 24 of the last 25 meetings in straight up fashion; 67-9-2 since 1928. Tennessee can avoid the worst season in the history of the program with a win here, and they are in an ideal position to do it.

Fulmer, talking about the impact of the bye week said, "We had a chance to do some fundamental work while also physically and mentally getting some rest after nine straight football games."

Tennessee certainly got healthy over the bye. Key defensive cogs Dan Williams, Walter Fisher and Ellix Wilson are all expected to be at or near 100% this week. That’s bad news for the sluggish Vanderbilt offense, a unit held to 14 points or less for five straight weeks before last week’s dominant showing at Kentucky.

While Jonathan Crompton is expected to start at quarterback for the Vols, redshirt frosh BJ Coleman had a phenomenal performance in the JV game last weekend, and should see some snaps here, particularly if Crompton struggles again.

Vandy just notched their sixth win last week, clinching bowl eligibility for the first time since 1982. This sets up as a major flat spot for the Commodores, even against an in-state rival that has dominated them for decades. There’s no question that Tennessee has the more talented personnel on both sides of the football. This week, I expect to see the level of effort that corresponds with that talent base.

Free Pick: Tennessee +3 (-110)

Willie Bee · 11-22-08, 10:15 AM

Memphis Tigers -5 at home vs. Central Florida Knights

Game Time: 11/22/2008 02:00 PM -
By: Lee Kostroski | experts.covers.com

The Tigers have a very big advantage on offense and has won five of their last seven games. Make your play on Memphis minus the points at home vs. Central Florida.

The Tigers have been on a nice roll after starting the season 0-3. Since then, this team has ripped off five wins in seven games and their offense has been clicking. Expect their offense to look even better on Saturday as they get their starting QB Arkelon Hall back in the line up after a two game absence.

Hall was really starting to roll when he was injured in the first offensive series at East Carolina. The two games leading up to that one, Hall threw for 298 yards against UAB and 350 vs. Louisville.

One of the Tigers' two losses since September 13 was at home to Louisville by a TD. In that game, Memphis outgained the Cards by a whopping 182 yards. Louisville scored on a kick return for a TD and on a fumble recovery. The Tigers turned it over three times otherwise they most likely win that game. Their other loss was at ECU 30-10. However, as we mentioned, Hall was injured on the first series of the game and did not return. What we didn’t mention was that his back up, Will Hudgens, hurt his knee just six plays later and did not return. Thus, Memphis was down to their third string QB just a few plays into the game. After that, they really had no chance at ECU.

Memphis has an absolutely huge edge on offense in this game. They put up 440 yards per game which is good for 20th nationally. UCF has been completely inept on offense averaging 235 YPG on offense which ranks them last in the nation. Last week’s 30-point outburst by UCF at Marshall was a bit deceiving as they only gained 242 yards but recovered a fumble in the end zone and really benefited from four Herd turnovers. They have absolutely zero passing game as starter Rob Calabrese completes just 39% of his attempts. In last week’s win, Calabrese was just 4 of 17 for 29 yards! Before last week, the Golden Knights topped 19 points just once in their last seven games.

UCF is now on the road for the second straight game with nothing to play for. At 3-7, they cannot reach a bowl game. You can bet they are much more excited about next week’s home finale vs. UAB. Memphis, on the other hand, is in the hunt for a bowl game. A win here gets them bowl eligible and they host Tulane next Saturday which could get them to 7-5. They are getting healthy after a bye week and are ready to roll on Saturday. We’ll take the home team vs. the offensive challenged and fatigued visitor.

Free Pick: Memphis -5 (-110)