Wal's College Week

[wal66]

Tuesday November 18, 2008
7:00 PM
Northern Illinois -3 @ Kent St

Records:
Northern Illinois 5-5 ( 5-4 ATS ) 1-4 on the road.
Kent St 3-7 ( 3-5 ATS ) 2-2 at home.

Trends:
Under is 14-4 ATS in Northern Illinois last 18 conference games.
Kent St is 2-8 in their last 10 conference games.
Kent St is 7-19 in their last 26 games overall.

Head to Head:
Northern Illinois is 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in previous 5 meetings.

Common Opponents:
Northern Illinois 14 Ball St 45
Kent St 20 Ball St 41
Bowling Green 13 Northern Illinois 16
Bowling Green 45 Kent St 30
Miami Ohio 13 Northern Illinois 17
Kent St 54 Miami Ohio 21

Offense:
Northern Illinois averages 22.5ppg on the road.
Kent St averages 27.75ppg at home.

Defense:
Northern Illinois allows 20.75ppg on the road.
Kent St allows 24.25ppg at home.

X-FACTOR:
First off the line has dropped from -4 to -3 already. Secondly I have seen both of these teams play. Northern Illinois will absolutely put you to sleep on offense, They are slow and the quarterback play is less than average at best. Kent St on the other hand doesn’t really understand the concept of playing defense. While they don’t always give up allot of points it’s not so much for defensive stands as it is as opponents mistakes. Northern Illinois should be able to run the ball against Kent, which will keep the ball away from Kent and use up valuable clock. Kent will take it to the air. If Northern can put the pressure on they should be able to get another win and make themselves bowl eligible.

Computer Program:
Northern Illinois -6.5 so at -3 you have some value with the Huskies.

Play:
Northern Illinois -3* (Small)

[wal66]

Wednesday November 19, 2008
7:00 PM
Ball St -7 @ Central Michigan

Records:
Ball St 10-0 ( 7-2 ATS ) 5-0 on the road.
Central Michigan 8-2 ( 6-3 ATS ) 4-0 at home.

Trends:
Ball ST 16-5 ATS in last 21 road games.
Central Michigan is 14-2-1 ATS in last 17 home games.
Central Michigan is 9-3 ATS vs. a team with winning record.

Head to Head:
Central Michigan is 6-4 SU.
Central Michigan is 7-3 ATS.

Common Opponents:
Northern Illinois 14 Ball St 45
Central Michigan 33 Northern Illinois 30
Ball St 31 Toledo 0
Central Michigan 24 Toledo 23

Offense:
Ball St averages 33.8ppg on the road.
Central Michigan averages 30ppg at home.

Defense:
Ball St allows 13.4ppg on the road.
Central Michigan allows 19.7ppg at home.

X-FACTOR:
I like this central Michigan team. Add to that the fact that crazy things happen in this conference more as the norm than the exception. With that said though I just can’t go against Ball St this season. They score when they decide to score and seemingly with ease. Would not be shocked if Central pulls this game out and if that happens then good for them.

Computer Program:
Ball St -5.5 so at -7 there is little to no value in Ball St.

Play:

Ball St -7*

[wal66]

Thursday November 20, 2008
7:45 PM
Miami @ Georgia Tech -3.5

Records:
Miami 7-3 ( 5-4 ATS ) 3-1 on the road.
Georgia Tech 7-3 ( 5-2-1 ATS ) 5-1 at home.

Trends:
Under is 9-2 ATS in Miami’s last 11 Thursday games.
Under is 15-4 ATS in Georgia tech’s last 19 Thursday night games.

Head to Head:
Georgia Tech is 3-2 SU and ATS.

Common Opponents:
Virginia Tech 14 Miami 16
Georgia Tech 17 Virginia Tech 20
Miami 24 Virginia 17
Virginia 24 Georgia Tech 17
FSU 41 Miami 39
FSU 28 Georgia Tech 31

Offense:
Miami averages 29.2ppg on the road.
Georgia Tech averages 24.6ppg at home.
( excluded Jackson St game )

Defense:
Miami allows 24.5ppg on the road.
Georgia Tech allows 11.8ppg at home.
( excluded the Jackson St game )

X-FACTOR:
I have been wrong about Miami all season. The one thing I do like about this team though is how physical the defense is. It’s because of that aggressiveness and physical play that I like them in this spot. Georgia Tech has committed to the run and stopping the run is what Miami will do. If Georgia Tech wins this game it will be due to Miami turning the ball over at a bad time. As long as the hook is there though I really see this as another 3 point game either way.

Computer Program:
Georgia Tech -1.9 so at -3.5 there is some marginal value in Miami.

Play:
The “U”+3.5*

[wal66]

NIU 42-14.............good start to the week.

[pags11]

GL the rest of the week wal66...

[wal66]

GL the rest of the week wal66...

much appreciated pags

[wal66]

Friday November 21, 2008
6:00 PM
Buffalo @ Bowling Green -3.5

Records:
Buffalo 6-4 ( 6-3 ATS ) 2-3 on the road.
Bowling Green 5-5 ( 6-3 ATS ) 1-3 at home.

Trends:
Over is 19.7 ATS in Buffalo’s last 26 conference games.
Bowling Green is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games.
Bowling Green is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 conference games.

Head to Head:Bowling Green is 4-1 SU
Teams are 2-2 ATS

Common Opponents:
Buffalo 43 Akron 40
Bowling Green 37 Akron 33
Miami Ohio 17 Buffalo 37
Miami Ohio 27 Bowling Green 20

Offense:
Buffalo averages 27.4ppg on the road.
Bowling Green averages 25.7ppg at home.

Defense:
Buffalo allows 31ppg on the road.
Bowling Green allows 30.7ppg at home.

X-FACTOR:
I haven’t see Bowling Green play this season. I said I was going to layoff playing anymore games where I hadn’t seen teams play but I have seen Buffalo play a couple times so far. The thing I like about this team is how relentless they are. They never stop fighting. Sure they make mistakes and the defense is sketchy at best but from the coach to the players they keep after it. One huge thing here that is bothersome is the line though. Yes Bowling Green has history on their side against Buffalo but so far this season Buffalo is by far the better team. It is the MAC and like I have said really crazy things happen in this conference maybe more than any other.

Computer Program:
Buffalo -1 so at +3.5 we have significant value here.

Play:
Buffalo -3.5*

[wal66]

Saturday November 22, 2008
12:30 PM
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt -3
Records:Tennessee 3-7 ( 3-7 ATS ) 0-4 on the road.
Vanderbilt 6-4 ( 7-3 ATS ) 3-2 at home.

Trends:
Under is 20-8 ATS in Tennessee’s last 28 conference games.

Head to Head:
Tennessee is 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS

Common Opponents:Tennessee 6 South Carolina 27
Vanderbilt 24 South Carolina 17
Tennessee 14 Georgia 26
Vanderbilt 14 Georgia 24
Florida 30 Tennessee 6
Florida 42 Vanderbilt 14

Offense:Tennessee averages 14ppg on the road.
Vanderbilt averages 19.4ppg at home.

Defense:Tennessee allows 23.5ppg on the road.
Vanderbilt allows 20.6ppg at home.

X-FACTOR:
Tennessee pretty much did it for me when after learning they were losing their coach went right out and lost at home to a not very good Wyoming team. If you can’t rally up enough emotion to win a game after losing a coach you supposedly love how can you muster up enough to beat a team that is actually better than you are this year. I will admit I do not like this line and Vanderbilt’s offense is suspect at best but how can you not ride the dream with them. Already bowl eligible and a chance for state bragging rights.

Computer Program:
Vanderbilt -13.5 so at -3 we have significant value.

Play:
Vanderbilt -3*


3:30 PM
Boston College @ Wake Forrest -2.5

Records:Boston College 7-3 ( 5-4 ATS ) 2-1 on the road.
Wake Forrest 6-4 ( 4-6 ATS ) 4-1 at home.

Trends:
Under is 8-3 ATS in Boston College’s last 11 road games.
Under is 7-3 ATS in Wake Forrest last 10 home games.

Head to Head:
Wake Forrest is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS

Common Opponents:
Boston College 27 FSU 17
Wake Forrest 12 FSU 3
Clemson 27 Boston College 21
Clemson 7 Wake Forrest 12
Boston College 38 NC State 31
Wake Forrest 17 NC State 21

Offense:
Boston College averages 27.5ppg on the road.
Wake Forrest averages 24ppg at home.

Defense:
Boston College allows 31ppg on the road.
Wake Forrest allows 21.2ppg at home.

X-FACTOR:Everything in the numbers suggest Wake Forrest is the play here. The line is messing with me though. Maybe I am reading too much into it but basically the line suggest this is a pick’m so I have to play a hunch in this one.

Computer Program:
Boston College -1/2 so at +2.5 there is minimal value.

Play:
Boston College +2.5*






3:30 PM
Marshall @ Rice -9.5

Records:
Marshall 4-6 ( 3-6 ATS ) 1-4 on the road.
Rice 7-3 ( 6-4 ATS ) 4-0 at home.

Trends:
Under is 7-2 ATS in Marshall’s last 9 road games.
Under is 8-3 ATS in Marshall’s last 11 conference games.
Over is 24-3 ATS in Rice’s last 27 home games.

Head to Head:
Marshall won and covered last year.

Common Opponents:
Marshall 34 Southern Miss 27
Southern Miss 40 Rice 45

Offense:
Marshall averages 17.5ppg on the road.
Rice averages 54ppg at home.

Defense:
Marshall allows 21.5ppg on the road.
Rice allows 29.5ppg at home.

X-FACTOR:While Rice doesn’t understand the concept of playing defense they have a very good understanding of offense and scoring points in bunches and quickly. I would lean towards Marshall if they were at home but being this game is at Rice and Rice is having a dream season for themselves I riding the rush.

Computer Program:
Rice -11.5 so at -9.5 there is minimal value here.

Play:
Rice -9.5*

[casper]

Thanks for the nice digest and presentation--everyone should have such a format.

[jraines]

helpful forum wal.

[wal66]

Ball St -4 second half 2 units

[wal66]

Thanks for the nice digest and presentation--everyone should have such a format.

I appreciate that casper. I have tried different styles and I liked this one the best myself.

Wish the picks were as solid as the presentation sometimes.

[wal66]

helpful forum wal.

I try to be as helpful as possible
jraines. That should always be the first purpose.

[bypp]

nice picks. lots of helpful info. gl this week

[wal66]

thanks and I appreciate it bypp

[wal66]

2-0-1 for the week so far. Should have bought the hook on the game but I was too confident in Ball St offense and thought they had a little better defense than they showed. Atleast I got 2 units off the second half.

[wal66]

Saturday November 22, 2008
8:00 PM
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma -7

Records:
Texas Tech 10-0 ( 5-2-1 ATS ) 4-0 on the road.
Oklahoma 9-1 ( 7-2 ATS ) 5-0 at home.

Trends:
Oklahoma is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 conference games.

Head to Head:
Oklahoma is 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS.

Common Opponents:
Texas 33 Texas Tech 39
Texas 45 Oklahoma 35
Texas Tech 63 Kansas 21
Kansas 31 Oklahoma 45
Nebraska 31 Texas Tech 37
Nebraska 28 Oklahoma 62

Offense:
Texas Tech averages 49.7ppg on the road.
Oklahoma averages 45.8ppg at home. ( excluded the Chattanooga game )

Defense:
Texas Tech allows 23.2ppg on the road.
Oklahoma allows 28ppg at home. ( excluded the Chattanooga game )

X-FACTOR:
Before these teams played Texas in my mind Oklahoma was the best team in the nation and Texas Tech was just a fun offense to watch. After the Texas game I learned that Oklahoma had serious issues on defense and Texas Tech was a great offense to watch out for. Unless Oklahoma finds a way to pressure Harrell they are in trouble. If they can manage the pressure they still are in trouble in the secondary. Stoop’s is a great schemer but I just don’t know if defensively he has the personnel to scheme for this contest. Emotions should be high in this game and I can see a low scoring first quarter but once both teams settle the nerves the fireworks should begin and probably not stop.

Opinion:
Texas Tech 45 Oklahoma 41

[wal66]

2-1-1 for the week

Atleast it was never close. I don't mind losing a game but I hate it when I am so completely wrong about a game.

[wal66]

I didn't think I was allowed to get lucky but tonight I did. I'll take it.

3-1-1 on the week so far.

[wal66]

I was so wrong about the Vandy game it almost feels like a losing weekend but turned out to be a 5-2-1 week long deal.