FSU vs VTECH, Thur Nite

[Pivotpoint]

Thoughts on FSU vs VTECH @ VT , Thur night?

Opened up and 12 and quickly moved to Noles - 13 1/2

Seminoles off a bye. Vtech off ugly loss to Hurricanes.

Seminoles now #1 Defense in the land after Bama/LSU results.

I like Noles here. Playing good football and Hokies in a funk.

I had this game penciled in at FSU - 10 with last weekend #'s. (prior to VT results)

I would rate this game FSU - 12 1/2 to - 13.

Being a Thursday game, this could move to 14 and Hokie backers might argue value with Beamer roaming the sidelines.

Jimbo has his boys playing Defense. Hokies should struggle to score. Manuel has looked very sharp and rates out # 2 in pass efficency.

Thoughts on game and what the closing line will be?

[Urbanwildlife]

Despite the game being played at Virgina Tech, I love this game for Florida State, and actually have already taken them. They are going to totally shut down the offense of Virgina Tech, going to get several turnovers from Logan Thomas, and the Florida State offense is averaging 44.8 points a game, while only giving up 12. Closing line I believe will be -14.5

http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/52/florida-state-seminoles

http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/259/virginia-tech-hokies

[TR35]

I agree with UW. Aside from the stats the intangibles favor FSU. I haven't seen Beamer's team quit b4. They appear to have given up. FSU is still playing for a huge bowl.

[Urbanwildlife]

There problems start at quarterback, as Logan Thomas is horrible. What has surprised me this year about them is how poorly there defense has played. Look at the points they have been giving up this year, and this is so not Virgina Tech like. This is a major play for me this week.

[Pivotpoint]

Beamer used to do magic with Hokie special teams. Haven't seen much evidence of that this year?

Line still sitting at 13 1/2

[bane]

My book doesn't even have the line out yet. If you're waiting for it to drop... you might be waiting a while. It's only gonna go up in V Tech's favor.

[Zuluhead2112]

I love this game as well. I grabbed it before the jump at -12.5. Va Tech has looked awful this year, even in their wins. Right now, they can't even play "Beamer-Ball" correctly, evident by the turnovers and other mental errors last week vs Miami, especially on special teams.

[Pivotpoint]

I jumped on FSU - 13 1/2. Starting to think that number won't drop and don't want to risk -14

While scanning the early numbers, I really like the Colts laying - 3 (-113) to the Jags, also on Thursday night.

I won't get into that much, since this is a college thread. Yes, Luck is a rookie QB laying points on the road. But, Jags are just awful.

I'm adding this because if you had a good weekend, you might consider a parlay with the Noles and Colts or if feeling more aggresive, get the first leg of a 3 teamer with Eagles, Colts and Seminoles.

I'm jumping out early on this.

FSU - 13 1/2 (3X)

Colts - 3 (-113) 3X

Eagles + 2 1/2 (+102) 2X

~~~~~

3 Team Parlay

FSU - 13 1/2
Colts - 3
Eagles + 2 1/2

1X = 6.13X

Hopefully this helps someone out.

Now, so as not to stray to far from College Ball. Here's some nice stats on FSU, supporting claim of Top Defense and QB Manuel efficiency #'s.

http://www.seminoles.com/blog/2012/11/fsu-now-no-1-in-total-defense-manuel-no-2-in-pass-efficiency.html

[BlacK_HazE]

Florida States going to have to beat the s*** out everyone we play & beat Florida to still have a chance.. Especially since we dropped in the bcs to #10

[BlacK_HazE]

oh, & fsu covers easy

[BlitzTheBooks]

As a Clemson fan, I'm hoping VTech straight up wins. As a realist, FSU will likely blow their effing doors off.

[CBASS]

Never trust EJ Manuel on the road to blow anyone out...

[Cuse0323]

I wouldn't put a dime on VaTech after that dismal display last week.

[hougigo]

True, FSU has been dominant on defense and offense.... but I'm uneasy with them at the road and VA tech. I think they'll win, just the cover i'm skeptical about

[Zuluhead2112]

True. FSU is going to try to blow out everyone to get the "style points" that won't really matter in the long run. At the end of the season there will most definitely be 3-4 undefeated teams.

[bane]

True, FSU has been dominant on defense and offense.... but I'm uneasy with them at the road and VA tech. I think they'll win, just the cover i'm skeptical about

FSU *should* cover easily on paper. Plus, they're still looking to win ACC & it helps they're coming off a bye. Seems they've had trouble on the road this year, averaging 26 points away as opposed to 54 at home.
FSU V Tech

[Pivotpoint]

Glad I jumped on FSU now, minus 13 1/2. Number currently sitting at - 14 1/2

Colts also moved to - 3 1/2

Really liking these two picks now. Predicting Noles by 21 and Colts by 10.

Digging deeper into the stats now.

Tech loss to Miami really showed big advantages for Hurricanes.

24-15 First Downs. 225 -157 Rushing yards edge.

Manuel head and shoulders above VT qb Thomas whose 13 TD's and eye opening 12 picks, beyond weak. 12 picks, wow. FSU defense stout and they should get a pick or two.

NOLES Defense

#3 RUN
#4 PASS
#1 TOTAL DEFENSE
#3 SCORING
#3 PASS EFFICENCY

Manuel #2 QB.

Colts

Luck off 433 PY effort. NFL rookie record

Visitor now 8-0 ATS in Jags game

Shocking 126 -34 pt defecit for Jags at home this year.

JAGS worst Offense in NFL, which also coincides with worse record 1W - 7 L

[tmgissy]

Despite the game being played at Virgina Tech, I love this game for Florida State, and actually have already taken them. They are going to totally shut down the offense of Virgina Tech, going to get several turnovers from Logan Thomas, and the Florida State offense is averaging 44.8 points a game, while only giving up 12. Closing line I believe will be -14.5

http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/52/florida-state-seminoles

http://espn.go.com/college-football/...ia-tech-hokies

^As urbanwildlife has been known to say. "Take that winning ticket to the window." or something like that.
FSU + points is the play.

[bane]

I think we stroll to the pay window? And I think we cheers

.... Urban will do the real thing 4 sure. Hate to misquote him. hehe

[Urbanwildlife]

Yes my friends, we will be taking the stroll to the pay window, and the same goes for the Arkansas State game! I have done my due diligence and have not came across one single reason why both these games should not cover! What a great way to go into a weekend, that is going to be very successful for all of us!

[Dr Nostron]

FSU is a shit the bed road thursday nite team.

I think they win, but win ugly.

[RG3ING]

I love the noles in this spot but jimbo always kills me by never running the score up they should win by 21+ but I'm sure I'm gonna be cussing at jimbo on the tv when he starts running clock with a 10-14 pt lead an I have to fade a late va tech score!!!

[HoulihansTX]

They will not blow out VT @ home. Ej Manuel has great "stats" but if you watch him play no way can you trust him.

[Pivotpoint]

They will not blow out VT @ home. Ej Manuel has great "stats" but if you watch him play no way can you trust him.

And you have more faith in Hokie QB Thomas?

Pre-season he was rumored to skip his senior year and jump to the NFL

Scouts have already advised he should return and shore up his stats.

For a big dude at 6'6" his passes are soft. Seminole Defense will be ready for his scrambling and won't allow him to break the big one and pad his stats.

I won't even get into the superior Nole Defense. Manuel head and shoulders above Thomas.

From Roto-World.

Virginia Tech junior QB Logan Thomas completed 19-of-37 passes for 199 yards and two interceptions against Miami on Thursday night.
Thomas did most of his damage on the ground, taking 22 carries for 124 yards and a touchdown, including a long scoring run of 73 yards. Yes, the junior was hurt by a handful of crucial drops, but Thomas made some terrible throws on his own. The Hokie is not comfortable as a passer, failing to use the correct amount of velocity to shape passes over defenders. Nov 2 - 9:19 AM

[Pivotpoint]

More on Thomas


Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech QB, Sounds Like He’s Not Entering the NFL Draft

Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech’s 6-foot-6 QB who at times reminds me of Ben Roethlisberger and other times looks reminiscent of a confused Blaine Gabbert, sounds like he’s not entering the 2013 NFL draft. He told the media over the weekend:

“I’ve always told everybody that I’m planning on coming back for my last one.”

Obviously college kids change their mind frequently, but … Thomas has actually regressed this year as the Hokies are going through one of their worst seasons in years (4-4, no guarantee they’ll be bowl-eligible). Thomas is only completing 53 percent of his passes (59 percent last year) and already has as many interceptions (10) as he did all last season.
Thomas looks the part: a nimble 6-6, powerful arm strength, nice speed, and he’ll probably put on a show at the combine. But can he be accurate enough to warrant being a high draft pick?
Based on a strong sophomore year, I thought he’d play well this season and be a 1st round draft pick. Right now, Thomas looks like a much bigger project than Ryan Tannehill (a converted receiver) was entering last year’s draft.
It has been a rough year for QBs in college football. Matt Barkley of USC has struggled more than he did last season (many will blame his offensive line). Geno Smith of West Virginia was nothing short of incredible through the first six weeks, but descended from the firmament in losses to Texas Tech and Kansas State.
Aaron Murray of Georgia has not been sharp. Tyler Bray of Tennessee has been up and down. Tyler Wilson of Arkansas was hurt, and the Razorbacks are a dumpster fire.
Last year at this time, the 2012 draft QB class looked good; the 2013 draft looked loaded. With six weeks left in the season, there sure are a lot of question marks about which QB might go 1st (or even 2nd).

[Urbanwildlife]

And you have more faith in Hokie QB Thomas?

P E R F E C T L Y stated!

[Pivotpoint]

FSU is a shit the bed road thursday nite team.

I think they win, but win ugly.

I love trends, but how far are you going back?

Different coach and players, no?

First Thur nite game for FSU this year.

Last year FSU played one Thur nite game and Bitch slapped BC @ Chapel Hill 38-7 !

Now, I don't have to look back very far ( last week) to view Hokies Thur nite performance.

They lost big on the board and stats were ugly

From post #17

Tech loss to Miami really showed big advantages for Hurricanes.

24-15 First Downs. 225 -157 Rushing yards edge.

[Urbanwildlife]

Love your passion in what you believe in Pivotpoint, as you are one of the best posters on the forum. Keep up the good work, the winning ways, and the positive spirit!

[Pivotpoint]

Love your passion in what you believe in Pivotpoint, as you are one of the best posters on the forum. Keep up the good work, the winning ways, and the positive spirit!

Thanks Urbanwildlife. You can't win them all, that's why they play the games. Cap them to the best of your ability and always practice money management. Press when you are hot and pull back when cold. Discipline and hard work always keeps ya in the game.

Nailed them last weekend. Saw you did to. Here's to another big weekend.

[Bigh2001]

Their performance in the NC state primetime road game makes me nervous about backing them against a shit team in this spot.

[vyomguy]

fsu 0-2 off of bye

fsu has been not good on road covering spreads

vtech has beaten fsu last 2 encounters

fsu wins and vtech covers the spread

[vyomguy]

not to mention past 2 thursdays favs have easily covered big spreads...books are aware of this and I dont expect fsu to cover here at all.