Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers - Early Sports Betting Preview

[Jeff Grant]

The LSU Tigers have been waiting for this game since the 2012 college football season kicked off a couple months ago, as they look to gain revenge from last year’s loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide in the BCS championship game. Let’s take a closer look at this SEC affair from a betting perspective.


Roll Tide


Alabama continues to dominate the college football landscape in impressive fashion, as the program comes off a dominating 38-7 win over the Mississippi State Bulldogs as 22-point home favorites. The Crimson Tide have built a reputation as a defensive juggernaut under head coach Nick Saban, but the offense has scored 30 or more points in eight consecutive games, which is the longest such streak to begin a season in school history. Sports bettors will be keeping a close eye on the college football odds page when the total is released on Monday.


Tigers off the bye


The LSU Tigers have tallied a 5-2 against-the-spread (ATS) record following a bye week in their last seven opportunities, which is an important factor to handicap in this Southeastern Conference affair. The Tigers have picked up back-to-back wins over the South Carolina Gamecocks (23-21) and Texas A&M Aggies (24-19) since suffering its lone defeat against the Florida Gators on Oct. 6. The program is 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS in November since 2010.


McCarron isn’t making mistakes


Crimson Tide quarterback AJ McCarron will enter this game with an active streak of 262 passing attempts without an interception, while his 37 career touchdown passes rank fourth in school history. Turnovers are key in games of this magnitude, especially when Alabama’s defense has tallied 14 interceptions on the season—picking off at least one pass in seven of eight games.


Tiger Stadium will be rocking


College football handicappers are going to have a difficult time not playing the home underdog in this spot, considering the Tigers have won 22-straight games inside Tiger Stadium, which is the longest home winning streak in the nation. LSU has compiled a disappointing 3-5 ATS record this season, but this will be the first time that the program receives points in the 2012 campaign. Head coach Les Miles is 4-3 ATS as an underdog over the last two-plus seasons.


First half will likely tell the story


Alabama has scored 20 or more points in every first half this season, while the team has outscored opponents by a significant 104-3 margin in the opening 15 minutes. Over their last 28 games, the Crimson Tide have either held a lead or been tied entering intermission in 28 straight games, which has led to a 564-114 combined advantage in that situation.


Early Thoughts


It’s too early to make a final college football prediction on this affair, as there’s numerous angles to handicap, but turnovers figure to play a key role in determining a winner. LSU is 40-4 under Les Miles when winning the turnover battle, while Alabama entered last week with 119-3 edge in points off turnovers dating back to the 2012 BCS championship game.

[chopperocker]

good writeup!

Alabama likely wins, but +10 on LSU is tempting.

my database is primitive. would you have the numbers on Ranked teams off a BYE as Home Dogs? i would guess they would be strong numbers.

[LT Profits]

Forget the side, the play is Under 42.5.

[CBASS]

Good post Jeff G...

[Smutbucket]

all that is terrible about LSU will get exposed in this battle, blow out, forget the old trends, the current matchups/trends are what counts, and Les miles team hasnt been effectively executing much of anything, in big and small games they have struggled with everything from executing plays to simple clock management at the end of the game. Sabans Alabama has been the exact opposite of that. they are clearly the more prepared team going in to this battle, and oddsmakers are setting a much larger "advantage" for playing at LSUs home due to the fact that the market eats that trend up. they are setting a low line and hoping to God everyone doesnt bet bama again cuz they know this one could easily be 3TD+ win.....

[lyon804]

I don't really think the BYE helps LSU much. Of course the players are fresher and some bumps and bruises are given some time to heal. The reason I don't think it helps is LSU coaches have not proven they can effectively game plan given the time. They beat Alabama last year 9-6 at Bama, but Alabama out played them and out gained them. The LSU staff had 6 weeks to prepare for the BCS championship game and was expecting the same kinda game which was a field posistion, punt fest. Alabama learned from that game that they could not simply out physical LSU in the runnings game and opened it up a little in the passing game to move the ball on LSU and score some points. You wanna hear what LSU's coaches came up with after 6 weeks off??? RUN THE BALL UP THE MIDDLE. Seriously, 6 weeks off and you thought that and some option was gonna work? At Alabama they ran the option with some success because it was not game planned for. If you recall Jarret Lee started that game and was benched due to throwing some picks. They brought in Jefferson and he moved the ball some with the option, but again it was not game planned for. With Jefferson the starter of the BCS there was no surpises from the option are running the ball up the middle. I believe Bama was a better team than LSU last year, but not to the degree the BCS championship showed. It's called coaching. Miles and his staff do a great job in getting talented players and develop them well with a physical toughness, but they do nothing to help them when it comes to game planning or game management. Can't make adjustments. I think Bama wins this game 27-13. Irregardless of Death Valley at nite.

[Smutbucket]

I don't really think the BYE helps LSU much. Of course the players are fresher and some bumps and bruises are given some time to heal. The reason I don't think it helps is LSU coaches have not proven they can effectively game plan given the time. They beat Alabama last year 9-6 at Bama, but Alabama out played them and out gained them. The LSU staff had 6 weeks to prepare for the BCS championship game and was expecting the same kinda game which was a field posistion, punt fest. Alabama learned from that game that they could not simply out physical LSU in the runnings game and opened it up a little in the passing game to move the ball on LSU and score some points. You wanna hear what LSU's coaches came up with after 6 weeks off??? RUN THE BALL UP THE MIDDLE. Seriously, 6 weeks off and you thought that and some option was gonna work? At Alabama they ran the option with some success because it was not game planned for. If you recall Jarret Lee started that game and was benched due to throwing some picks. They brought in Jefferson and he moved the ball some with the option, but again it was not game planned for. With Jefferson the starter of the BCS there was no surpises from the option are running the ball up the middle. I believe Bama was a better team than LSU last year, but not to the degree the BCS championship showed. It's called coaching. Miles and his staff do a great job in getting talented players and develop them well with a physical toughness, but they do nothing to help them when it comes to game planning or game management. Can't make adjustments. I think Bama wins this game 27-13. Irregardless of Death Valley at nite.

exactly what I was thinking but way more specific and accurate! lets pound it! Id be very suprised to see LSU get more than 10 though, maybe a def TD or turnover in good fg leads to TD plus 3 is all I give that offense

[lyon804]

exactly what I was thinking but way more specific and accurate! lets pound it! Id be very suprised to see LSU get more than 10 though, maybe a def TD or turnover in good fg leads to TD plus 3 is all I give that offense

Be interesting to see what Miles has for Alabama. His guys play so hard and the atmosphere will be electric. Alabama will have to pass the ball early to move it imo. I don't think they can run on LSU until late after they have worn them down some and LSU offense has been putrid leaving the defense on the field too long. You know alot factors into a game like this. I think Alabama will need to convert some 3rd downs early and not get behind the down and distance from negative plays. I love Saban but he does have a tendency to be conservative on offense epecially if they get behind the chains from negative plays/penalties. I am sure Bama will give Mettenberger a headache. A rookie QB basically in the league and Alabama will throw the kitchen sink at him with so many different looks. Bama has the athletes and the depth to really make his life miserable. He just thought Florida had a defense.


I agree with your points on LSU SB, I just think something good will happen for LSU. Aj Mccarren is a very solid QB and makes good decisions but I wouldn't be suprised if he gets his first pick here. LSU probably will be gambling on routes and jumping them early playing some down and distance. At the end of the day even if LSU sets up some positives from there defense or special teams I just see too much Alabama here. Game will probably come down to 3rd down execution and I sure like Alabama's chances of converting alot more of those than I do LSU's chances with Mettenberger.

[lyon804]

The offensive play books are not even comparable. There is alot of wrinkles Alabama has not even shown because if they can beat you with there vanilla offense and hang 38-42 pts on you they will not do anything different. LSU's playbook is not very diverse. They count on beating people playing smash mouth football(which, Alabama can do as well). If that doesn't work they have nothing else really to fall back on. I am sure Alabama will show some formations and changes that have not been seen by LSU that will cause some confusion and ultimately get a favorable matchup for Alabama. There is a ton for LSU to digest defensively. Not so much for Alabama. I don't think they will see anything they have not game planned for in this game.

[HoulihansTX]

Yes LSU has no chance in covering this game. Continue to believe this.

[Big Bear]

Houlians u like LSU ML?

[CBASS]

all that is terrible about LSU will get exposed in this battle, blow out, forget the old trends, the current matchups/trends are what counts, and Les miles team hasnt been effectively executing much of anything, in big and small games they have struggled with everything from executing plays to simple clock management at the end of the game. Sabans Alabama has been the exact opposite of that. they are clearly the more prepared team going in to this battle, and oddsmakers are setting a much larger "advantage" for playing at LSUs home due to the fact that the market eats that trend up. they are setting a low line and hoping to God everyone doesnt bet bama again cuz they know this one could easily be 3TD+ win.....

You're penetrating crazy if you think Bama is going to score 3 td's + on LSU's D in this game.... I haven't decided on a side as of yet, but I know Bama isn't going to have success moving the ball effectively against LSU in this one.

[Brutus84]

LSU 2 units +10 maybe even buying the hook. 3/4 unit ML. I think Alabama is a better team but doesnt mean anything.

[LT Profits]

You're penetrating crazy if you think Bama is going to score 3 td's + on LSU's D in this game.... I haven't decided on a side as of yet, but I know Bama isn't going to have success moving the ball effectively against LSU in this one.

Refer to Post #3.

[CBASS]

Refer to Post #3.

No doubt