Early line 2 my liking: OREGON -7 at USC.

HoulihansTX · 10-28-12, 07:49 PM

I think Kiffin is a clown, who has accomplished nothing as a HC.

GWOZOZO · 10-28-12, 09:00 PM

It's tempting. I can't even say USC has been a Jekyll and Hyde team; they've been mediocre all year. Strangely enough, I think OU's defense match up well here. the defense gets no attention because of their offense. This might be their spotlight game, going up against Barkley and company. However, I'm not touching this game because I already have too much money pending

Urbanwildlife · 10-28-12, 09:07 PM

One other thing I am taking into consideration on this game, is the fact that Oregon has to a statement in the hopes of getting to the national title game, so I do not think Oregon head coach Chip Kelly will let up in this game no matter if it becomes a blow out or not. To get the points necessary I heard them say on ESPN tonight when discussing the latest BCS poll, that Oregon would have to have blow out convincing wins to get to the ultimate game.

bane · 10-28-12, 10:29 PM

Originally posted by Urbanwildlife

One other thing I am taking into consideration on this game, is the fact that Oregon has to a statement in the hopes of getting to the national title game, so I do not think Oregon head coach Chip Kelly will let up in this game no matter if it becomes a blow out or not. To get the points necessary I heard them say on ESPN tonight when discussing the latest BCS poll, that Oregon would have to have blow out convincing wins to get to the ultimate game.

You mean Oregon needs to blow out higher ranked teams? If it was only about points, they'd have scored 100 against Colorado last weekend and been done. Someone made a similar comment about Colorado last week... how Oregon needs the points so they wouldn't let up against Colorado. But, it's not just about the points, right? It's about the caliber of team you beat & how decisively you beat 'em.

If Kelly changes his modus operandi of sitting starters at the half, I agree it begins this week.

Do you guys expect Oregon to roll USC in the first half? I haven't capped a USC game yet & dunno anything about 'em. So... I'm about to get on that. See if I can answer my own question.

Rookie-Capper · 10-28-12, 11:19 PM

Yes oregon for sure not too big though

Future24 · 10-28-12, 11:41 PM

Oregon rolls USC. Line will jump plenty of points. Get on now.

Urbanwildlife · 10-28-12, 11:43 PM

@ bane, I was only repeating about Oregon having to win in very convincing fashion, because that is exactly what they had said on the ESPN BCS show. I guess when you have weakness of schedule and comparing apples to apples, they do look at how convincing your wins were.

Urbanwildlife · 10-28-12, 11:44 PM

Originally posted by Future24

Oregon rolls USC. Line will jump plenty of points. Get on now.

I did in a very big way.

mdfizzle · 10-29-12, 10:23 AM

USC covers this game 68% of the time.

Urbanwildlife · 10-29-12, 10:57 AM

Well I hope this year the other 32 percent covers!

flat out · 10-29-12, 11:43 AM

MNF

What's your thoughts on tonight's game?
I like the 7pt tease for AZ and under.
Your thought's??
Thx!!

Urbanwildlife · 10-29-12, 11:57 AM

I have no feel for the game at all, so possibly someone else can provide you the information, but it is probably best that you post your question on the NFL board here at SBR, to get the responses you are looking for.

chopperocker · 10-29-12, 12:11 PM

Ranked teams off an upset loss when playing as Dog in theyre next game are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS this season. also like the revenge role for Oregon.

Urbanwildlife · 10-29-12, 12:20 PM

Good information Chopperrocker, and much appreciated!

Pivotpoint · 10-29-12, 02:42 PM

Looks like they slapped the hook on Oregon now, sitting at - 7 1/2.

I was looking at Marc Lawrences 2012 Handicapping Playbook earlier. He had Oregon as his pointspread powerplay, though, that was to play Oregon as a dog. Amazing how quick things change.

This should be a great game. Wise to resist going to large on a game like this where the books anticpate huge action and line is super sharp.

I like Oregon, but in no hurry to bet. Would think we should stay in the 7 1/2 range. I try my hardest to resist jumping on lines to early and like to work on the games at least till Wed. Yes, sometimes the line can run away from you, but if it's off to much and value is gone, pass or reduce wager or even consider other side.

Long time hater of USC and especially that loser Kiffin. Kiffin really fuked Vols and players. Not sure if it would even be safe for that guy to venture back into parts of TN. Hope Oregon bitch slaps Trojans in there house. That would be sweet.

Urbanwildlife · 10-29-12, 02:57 PM

Great post as all of yours are Pivotpoint, and always much appreciate your points of view, as your posts always have quality in them. I jumped on this early, because I knew damn well it would not stay at 7, and I anticipated this game last week, and I really like Oregon this year, much more so than previous years, as I believe they are stronger at the quarterback position, as well as on defense.

CDMKMP · 10-29-12, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by bane

You mean Oregon needs to blow out higher ranked teams? If it was only about points, they'd have scored 100 against Colorado last weekend and been done. Someone made a similar comment about Colorado last week... how Oregon needs the points so they wouldn't let up against Colorado. But, it's not just about the points, right? It's about the caliber of team you beat & how decisively you beat 'em.

I think what he meant was Oregon only has 1, maybe 2 games left on their schedule where they can make a statement that voters will actually care about. Beating Colorado by 100 doesn't earn them anything because high school teams could beat Colorado right now.

But they know that against USC and Oregon St style points are very much in play. Not saying they will run up the score unnecessarily, but they probably won't resort to sitting players unless USC really rolls over. In this sense they have a huge incentive to bring their A game and pound the scoreboard.

Beating USC convincingly is really the only thing that helps them...squeaking by or losing likely prevents them from re-jumping K State and ND if all three keep winning.

Urbanwildlife · 10-29-12, 03:18 PM

Originally posted by cdmkmp

i think what he meant was oregon only has 1, maybe 2 games left on their schedule where they can make a statement that voters will actually care about. Beating colorado by 100 doesn't earn them anything because high school teams could beat colorado right now.

But they know that against usc and oregon st style points are very much in play. Not saying they will run up the score unnecessarily, but they probably won't resort to sitting players unless usc really rolls over. In this sense they have a huge incentive to bring their a game and pound the scoreboard.

Beating usc convincingly is really the only thing that helps them...squeaking by or losing likely prevents them from re-jumping k state and nd if all three keep winning.

Perfectly expressed!

Pivotpoint · 10-29-12, 03:49 PM

Was looking over that USC vs Zona game.

Trojans commited 13 penalties for 117 yards.

USC turned the ball over 5 times.

Barkley had 493 yards, but TWO PICKS basically made that stat mute.

345 of Barkleys yards were to Marqise Lee. Lee is a stud and Heisman candidate, but Ducks D should come with a plan to slow him down.

Of more interest were the stats that Zona QB Matt Scott registered against that Trojan Defense.

Matt Scott had 369 via the air. What really caught my eye was that he RAN FOR 100 MORE and had four total touchdowns.

USC knocked him out in the 4th qtr (Concussion symptons) and yet Arizona held on for the 39-36 win.

I bet Matt Barkley wishes he left for the draft after last season. Heisman hopes pretty much done along with any hopes of playing in a national title game.

Wondering aloud if Zona qb can throw and run all over Trojans, how much damage will the Ducks do?

Will conditioning be an issue for Ducks if game is close? When's the last time duck starters played a full game?

If Ducks romp and pull starters late, could back door come into play?

I have to think Oregon is real fresh for this battle. Kelly will keep his foot on the gas and conditioning a non -issue. If Trojans even come close to penalties and turnovers like last week, well, the Ducks will run them right out of the colosseum. Not a team to make to many mistakes with and not be embarrassed on the scoreboard.

Pivotpoint · 10-29-12, 04:44 PM

Originally posted by Urbanwildlife

Great post as all of yours are Pivotpoint, and always much appreciate your points of view, as your posts always have quality in them. I jumped on this early, because I knew damn well it would not stay at 7, and I anticipated this game last week, and I really like Oregon this year, much more so than previous years, as I believe they are stronger at the quarterback position, as well as on defense.

Thanks Urban. Always try to contribute some facts, stats and angles.

Interesting weekend coming up. Key games have numbers bouncing all over.

Bama quickly moved to 10 then 10 1/2 and just slipped back to minus 8 1/2.

Kansas State was 7 then 8 now 9 1/2 vs Ok St.

Collin Klein has looked awesome , but Wes Lunt looked great in his return. Cowboys fell behind 14-0 to TCU and then Lunt sparked a 36 -0 response. Another great game to look forward to. Could have been worse without 5 Cowboy field goals with none over 34 yards. Cowboys will need to finish drives. Wildcat defense stout.

gl with your plays.

chopperocker · 10-29-12, 05:26 PM

Oregon, good spot for ML parlays and Teasers.

savman · 10-29-12, 05:33 PM

Teasing the Ducks with ery'body.

bane · 10-29-12, 09:43 PM

Originally posted by Pivotpoint

Was looking over that USC vs Zona game.

Trojans commited 13 penalties for 117 yards.

USC turned the ball over 5 times.

Barkley had 493 yards, but TWO PICKS basically made that stat mute.

345 of Barkleys yards were to Marqise Lee. Lee is a stud and Heisman candidate, but Ducks D should come with a plan to slow him down.

Of more interest were the stats that Zona QB Matt Scott registered against that Trojan Defense.

Matt Scott had 369 via the air. What really caught my eye was that he RAN FOR 100 MORE and had four total touchdowns.

USC knocked him out in the 4th qtr (Concussion symptons) and yet Arizona held on for the 39-36 win.

I bet Matt Barkley wishes he left for the draft after last season. Heisman hopes pretty much done along with any hopes of playing in a national title game.

Wondering aloud if Zona qb can throw and run all over Trojans, how much damage will the Ducks do?

Will conditioning be an issue for Ducks if game is close? When's the last time duck starters played a full game?

If Ducks romp and pull starters late, could back door come into play?

I have to think Oregon is real fresh for this battle. Kelly will keep his foot on the gas and conditioning a non -issue. If Trojans even come close to penalties and turnovers like last week, well, the Ducks will run them right out of the colosseum. Not a team to make to many mistakes with and not be embarrassed on the scoreboard.

Just answering a couple questions (even if they're rhetorical). I think Kelly sits starters to keep them healthy. Also, as CDMKMP, pointed out, no need running up the score against unimpressive teams. In the two games where starters played the full, they had no issue *increasing* their level of play in the 2nd half. Of course, they weren't playing USC. Still demonstrated they're conditioned to play a full game. Conditioning happens in August anyways. You just maintain throughout the season.

Been a month since they played full.

9/22 1st half Arizona 0, Oregon 13. Oregon Starters played 2nd half & scored 36, Arizona 0.

9/29 Wash St 19, Oregon 23. Oregon Starters played 2nd half & scored 26, Wash St 7. Was Oregon's first away game.

casinobones · 10-29-12, 10:47 PM

I usually have a hard time trying to watch the West Coast teams and end changing the channel,but when Oregon is on,I can't help but watch as I think they are Head and Shoulders above anybody in their Conference!And USC is always Over-Rated and Ranked,Oregon covers this line easy IMO!

Urbanwildlife · 10-29-12, 10:53 PM

My friend casinobones,

I love your way of thinking!

testertips · 10-29-12, 11:00 PM

fading usc this year has been a good thing for me, but that # is weird to me. i was expecting -9ish. will wait for the a better # and may play usc in this spot. likely make a play on the total if i do play this game...

texhooper · 10-29-12, 11:29 PM

Originally posted by bane

Just answering a couple questions (even if they're rhetorical). I think Kelly sits starters to keep them healthy. Also, as CDMKMP, pointed out, no need running up the score against unimpressive teams. In the two games where starters played the full, they had no issue *increasing* their level of play in the 2nd half. Of course, they weren't playing USC. Still demonstrated they're conditioned to play a full game. Conditioning happens in August anyways. You just maintain throughout the season.

Been a month since they played full.

9/22 1st half Arizona 0, Oregon 13. Oregon Starters played 2nd half & scored 36, Arizona 0.

9/29 Wash St 19, Oregon 23. Oregon Starters played 2nd half & scored 26, Wash St 7. Was Oregon's first away game.

it was a neutral site. oregon has only played one true road game this year and it was at weak ass arizona state.

Trackrec · 10-30-12, 01:38 AM

My concerns lie with Dion Jordan being out. He suffered a shoulder injury. Another OL man got injured during that game as well. I think 'Vegas' believes Barkley can air it out sans-Dion giving him pressure (he's a beast running to the outside). Also, Kiko Alonso has a hurt wrist and didn't play against CO. I'm hoping he'll be ready. These injuries are my reasons why Vegas opened at 7. I got my QUACKS at 7.5 GLGLGLGL

CBASS · 10-30-12, 03:35 AM

USC wins...

CBASS · 10-30-12, 03:37 AM

Trojans have the talent to match and their defense is too disciplined to go for the mis-directions and pre-snap motions that Oregon runs. USC wins this game by a td +......mark my words.

Big Bear · 10-30-12, 08:36 AM

I love Oregon here. It almost looks too easy and I hate that Oregon will be a huge public play... But in this case i don't think it matters.

USC has no heart whatsoever, no leadership and a QB has regressed and clearly let all the hype go to his head.

This game will not be close.

possum11 · 10-30-12, 09:21 AM

Yeah USC defense looked very disciplined against Arizona last week.

Big Bear · 10-30-12, 11:02 AM

Im a little surprised the spread is almost the
same as the Oregon @ AriZona state game.

if i was a bookie taking bets my line would be Oregon -15

i cant imagine many people are taking so cal +8
as bad as they have played on defense..

Urbanwildlife · 10-30-12, 12:18 PM

I beg to differ as you have those people who will be on USC based on there many years of being a powerhouse. It is that perception thing about the past, that will continue to have people putting money on USC.