TCU ML +250/TCU +7 [-110]
My home boys travel to Stillwater today with both teams in need of a win. Couple of keys to me. TCU's ability to slow down the Cowboys' running game. Okie State is one of the best rushing teams in FBS, but TCU ranks near the top in rush D. They must continue to do what they have done against Baylor & Texas Tech and that is to contain the running game and make the opposition beat you in the air. TCU's pass rush isn't stellar - if Maponga returns that would be huge - but if you turn a team more one dimensional, you get more chances to pressure a young QB into mistakes. That's likely the same scenario OSU sees against Trevone Boykin. After his initiation through fire where he struggled against Iowa State, he has put together two solid performances against Baylor & Texas Tech. The key here is limiting miscues and I think hitting some big plays against this suspect pass D. Two INTs last week agaisnt Tech & TCU lost a fumble for Boykin and they lose by 3. When the Frogs don't turn the ball over, they win. In both their losses they were deep on the wrong side of the turnover battle. Ball security for the receivers & backs + Boykin is big. TCU already proved they can win against an offensive juggernaut on the road in Baylor. While the OSU defense rates much better than Baylor - they can be had as both Texas & Arizona showed.
#1. TCU wins the turnover battle, breaking even or coming out in plus territory.
#2. Oklahoma State rushes for 150 yards or less.
#3. Boykin has no turnovers and hits 3-4 big plays in the passing game.
If TCU does at least 2/3 of those, I think they will cover the +7 and if they can do all three, a very realistic shot to win outright.
One unit on TCU +7 & 0.25 unit on the ML @ +250
My home boys travel to Stillwater today with both teams in need of a win. Couple of keys to me. TCU's ability to slow down the Cowboys' running game. Okie State is one of the best rushing teams in FBS, but TCU ranks near the top in rush D. They must continue to do what they have done against Baylor & Texas Tech and that is to contain the running game and make the opposition beat you in the air. TCU's pass rush isn't stellar - if Maponga returns that would be huge - but if you turn a team more one dimensional, you get more chances to pressure a young QB into mistakes. That's likely the same scenario OSU sees against Trevone Boykin. After his initiation through fire where he struggled against Iowa State, he has put together two solid performances against Baylor & Texas Tech. The key here is limiting miscues and I think hitting some big plays against this suspect pass D. Two INTs last week agaisnt Tech & TCU lost a fumble for Boykin and they lose by 3. When the Frogs don't turn the ball over, they win. In both their losses they were deep on the wrong side of the turnover battle. Ball security for the receivers & backs + Boykin is big. TCU already proved they can win against an offensive juggernaut on the road in Baylor. While the OSU defense rates much better than Baylor - they can be had as both Texas & Arizona showed.
#1. TCU wins the turnover battle, breaking even or coming out in plus territory.
#2. Oklahoma State rushes for 150 yards or less.
#3. Boykin has no turnovers and hits 3-4 big plays in the passing game.
If TCU does at least 2/3 of those, I think they will cover the +7 and if they can do all three, a very realistic shot to win outright.
One unit on TCU +7 & 0.25 unit on the ML @ +250