College Football Week 9 Handicapper Report

Jeff Grant · 10-22-12, 05:54 PM

USC Trojans vs. Arizona Wildcats

USC hits the road for the fifth time in its first eight games, as it looks to extend its win streak to five games, which includes a 50-6 blowout win over the Colorado Buffaloes as 39.5-point home favorites. The Trojans have won nine of the last 10 overall meetings in this series, including its last five trips to Tucson. It’s important to note that the last five meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less. USC is 2-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, something to consider when making your college football predictions in Week 9.

The Trojans are led offensively by Heisman Trophy candidate Matt Barkley, who just set the Pac-12 record for career touchdown passes, while wide receiver Robert Woods established the school’s career mark for receptions. Head coach Lane Kiffin has watched his team tally its six victories by a double-digit margin in each. In last year’s 48-41 win over the Wildcats as 12.5-point home favorites, Barkley set school game passing and total offense yardage records.

Arizona will welcome a top-25 team to the desert for the third time this season, as it seeks its first home victory against USC since the 1999 campaign. The Wildcats snapped a three-game losing streak by picking up a resounding 52-17 win over the Washington Huskies as 8.5-point home favorites, while going OVER the total for the third consecutive game. Offensively, the team ranks second in the conference in scoring offense, but will face a defense that sits second in scoring. Arizona has covered and gone above the total in both of its games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points this year.

The Wildcats have faced a difficult schedule under first-year head coach Rich Rodriguez, as the Trojans will be their fifth ranked opponent. Arizona has topped the 50-point mark in three of its seven games, something that hasn’t been done on campus in over 50 years. Matt Scott will try to match USC’s star signal-caller offensively, as he leads the conference and ranks fourth nationally in averaging 336.4 passing yards per game. Sophomore running back Ka’Deem Carey is also a player to watch, averaging 120.3 rushing yards per game.

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys

TCU looks to bounce back from a 56-53 overtime loss to the Texas Tech Red Raiders as 2.5-point home favorites, while the team has gone OVER the total in three consecutive games. “Welcome to the Big 12,” stated Horned Frogs head coach Gary Patterson after suffering consecutive home losses in a single season for the first time since 1998. The Horned Frogs are set to leave the state of Texas for just the second time this season, as they’ve won their last 14 conference road games. TCU is 3-0 ATS after allowing 37 or more points in its last game.

The Horned Frogs and Cowboys rank first and second respectively in terms of having the nation’s longest active streak of scoring at least 20 points in a game. TCU has tallied a 22-6 record in regular-season games following a loss under Patterson’s direction, but this time may be different. The program is tied with the Texas Longhorns in having played 16 true freshmen this year.

Oklahoma State has won two straight games for the first time this season, coming off a 31-10 win over the Iowa State Cyclones as 14-point home favorites, while going UNDER the total for the second consecutive week. Quarterback J.W. Walsh threw for 415 yards, but is now out for the season with a knee injury. The Cowboys have gone 11-9-2 all-time against the Horned Frogs, as the two campuses are separated by just 267 miles. Oklahoma State is 8-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 2010.

The Cowboys will need to rely heavily on running back Joseph Randle, who happens to be the Big 12 Conference’s leading rusher in averaging 127.5 yards per game, while sitting eighth nationally. Oklahoma State has won 14 of its last 17 conference games, which has pushed head coach Mike Gundy’s record to 35-25 against league competition. In the last two games, the defense has limited opponents to a combined 24 points, allowing them to convert on just 11 of 42 third and fourth-down opportunities.

Jeff Grant · 10-23-12, 12:16 PM

Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma

Notre Dame is focused on trying to move its record to 8-0 for the first time since 2002, as it comes off a 17-14 win over the BYU Cougars as 11.5-point home favorites, while going UNDER the total for the sixth consecutive game. The Fighting Irish ran for a season-high 270 yards, with Theo Riddick leading the way with a career-high 143 yards. “We showed that we can run the ball,” stated Riddick after the game. The program has compiled 796 rushing yards over the last three weeks, which serves as its highest total in a three-game span since 2003. Notre Dame is 3-1 ATS as a road underdog over the last two-plus years, which is important to note when making your college football predictions.

The Fighting Irish are expected to have Everett Golson back under center, as he’s listed as day-to-day on the injury report with a head injury. He will need to protect the football, as he turned the ball over three times in his last round of action against the Stanford Cardinal. Notre Dame has played 89 games in its history with both teams ranked in the top 10, posting a 50-34-5 overall record in that situation.

Oklahoma has outscored its last three opponents by a sizable 156-48 margin, including a 52-7 win over the Kansas Jayhawks as 34.5-point home favorites, while going OVER the total in all three of those contests. The Sooners 34-1 at home under head coach Bob Stoops against non-conference foes, while going 3-0 against teams entering Owen Field with a 5-0 record or better. Oklahoma is 9-6 ATS at home over the last two-plus seasons, with the UNDER going 9-5 in that situation.

The Sooners will need a major performance out of quarterback Landry Jones in hopes of covering this spread, as he’s completed 66-of-106 passes for 880 yards and seven touchdowns with a single interception over the last three games. Oklahoma has won 19 of 20 October home games during the Stoops’ era. Turnovers figure to be key in determining a winner in this contest, with Saturday’s host forcing nine in the last three games, which breaks down to seven interceptions and two fumbles.

Texas vs. Kansas

Texas earned a 56-50 victory over the Baylor Bears last week in the highest scoring game in school history, while going OVER the total for the fifth consecutive week. The Longhorns rank sixth in the nation in scoring, averaging 44.4 points per game, as they’ve managed to convert 55.3 percent of their third-down attempts. The program will be playing Saturday’s opponent for the 12th time, posting a 9-2 mark in the previous two meetings, including a nine-game win streak by an average 32.1 points. Texas is 3-2 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points, with the UNDER going 4-1 in that situation.

The Longhorns will need to force a few miscues in order to cover this number, as they ranked tied for 18th nationally with a plus-one per game turnover margin. Texas has outscored its opponents by a 77-10 margin this season off turnovers. Four of the team’s last five opponents had an offense ranked among the top 10 nationally in either scoring or total offense.

Kansas has suffered six consecutive losses since a season-opening victory against South Dakota State, as the offense has failed to score over 24 points during the losing streak. The Jayhawks were handed a 52-7 setback by the Oklahoma Sooners as 34.5-point road underdogs last week, with the OVER cashing for the second time in three weeks in that affair. Kansas is 2-5 ATS as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points, with the UNDER going 5-2 in that situation.

The Jayhawks are 89th in total offense and 85th in total defense, which doesn’t offer much to be enthusiastic about in this matchup. Kansas isn’t the type of team that can spread out an opponent, which has posed a problem to Texas in recent weeks. Running back James Sims will need to be dynamic in hopes of pulling off an upset, as he’s gone over the century mark in rushing in three straight games. His eight 100-yard performances moves him into a tie for seventh all-time at the school in that particular category.

UCLA vs. Arizona State

UCLA is back on the road after last week’s bye week, as it looks to improve upon its 7-5 record in games played in Tempe. The Bruins earned a 29-28 win as 8.5-point home underdogs in last year’s meeting, while the last two games in the series have gone OVER the total. Running back Johnathan Franklin is the player to watch offensively, as he ranked ninth nationally in gaining 125.4 rushing yards per game. UCLA is 1-8 ATS in October the last two-plus years, while failing to cover the spread in its last four games after a bye week.

The Bruins have to be happy with Brett Hundley’s performance this year, as he became the first quarterback in school history with three straight 300-yard passing games. His main target in the passing game in scoring situations is senior Joseph Fauria, who leads the team with five touchdown receptions. On the other side of the ball, UCLA ranks seventh nationally in averaging 3.29 sacks per game.

Arizona State will look to bounce back from an embarrassing 43-21 home loss to the Oregon Ducks in a primetime contest last week, as it was out-gained by a 214-yard margin on the ground. The Sun Devils will need to play much better in that department on Saturday, considering the Bruins are second in the Pac-12 Conference in averaging 216.6 rushing yards per game. The program has done a good job of not drawing penalties, leading the conference with just 28.3 yards per game. Arizona State is 4-0 ATS at home when the total is between 56.5 and 63 the last two-plus seasons.

The Sun Devils have been a dominating team in the final 15 minutes of games this season, outscoring opponents by a 78-7 combined margin in the fourth quarter. Arizona quarterback Taylor Kelly has been a bright spot for the offense this year, leading the Pac-12 in passing efficiency, while also gaining 248 net rushing yards on 73 attempts.

BYU vs. Georgia Tech

BYU will look to snap a two-game losing streak on Saturday, which includes a 17-14 setback to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as 11.5-point road underdogs, while going UNDER the total for the fourth time in five games. The Cougars are 2-8 all-time against Atlantic Coast Conference opponents, which includes an 0-4 mark under Bronco Mendenhall’s direction. There’s no doubt that the game comes down to the team’s eighth-rated rush defense against a unit that is third offensively in that category. BYU is 6-2 ATS as a road underdog the last two-plus years.

The Cougars will need to dominate on the defensive end in order to pull off a slight upset in this affair, as the unit ranks fourth in the country in total defense, allowing just 276.9 yards per game. BYU has done a great job of limiting opponents in the red zone, allowing points on 11 of 20 attempts.

Georgia Tech was able to snap a three-game losing streak by capturing a 37-17 win over the Boston College Eagles as 14-point home favorites last week, while going UNDER the total for the first time since Sept. 3. The Yellow Jackets rolled up 563 yards of offense against the Eagles, while holding the ball for nearly 44 minutes. Offensively, the team has rushed for more yards than any team nationally since the 2008 season. Quarterback Tevin Washington pilots the attack, entering with 33 career rushing touchdowns. Georgia Tech is 4-7 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last two-plus seasons.

The Yellow Jackets have a lot of playmakers in the running game, but Orwin Smith certainly stands out, racking up 805 all-purpose yards this season. His career average of 9.9 yards per carry is the highest by an active player with 100-plus carries. Georgia Tech has outscored opponents by a 39-point margin off turnovers this year, which could play a critical role in the outcome of this contest. After no takeaways in the season opener, the team has forced 13 over the last six games.

Baylor vs. Iowa State

Baylor has split its first 10 meetings against Iowa State, as the program looks to snap a three-game losing streak, which includes a 56-50 setback to the Texas Longhorns as 8.5-point road underdogs last week. The Bears earned a decisive 49-26 win in last year’s meeting as 15-point home favorites, while going OVER the posted total of 64. In order to pull off a slight upset, the team will need to get back to causing turnovers, as it’s failed to do so in the last three games. Baylor is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games.

The Bears have scored 45-plus points in nine of their last 10 games, with quarterback Nick Florence leading the way during the 2012 campaign, ranking third nationally in pass efficiency with a 172.8 rating. In six career road starts, Florence has posted four of the top seven yardage totals in road games in school history. Wide receiver Terrance Williams has become quite a target in the passing game, catching 30 passes for 660 yards in his last three games.

Iowa State is set to play its Homecoming game that marks the 100th anniversary of the first such event at the school. The Cyclones have managed to score just 31 combined points in back-to-back losses to the Kansas State Wildcats and Oklahoma State Cowboys, while both games have gone UNDER the total. Statistically, the team has been out-gained in its last four games, including a deficit in the passing game in each of those contests. Iowa State is 8-8 ATS at home the last two-plus seasons.

The Cyclones are going to have a hard time limiting the Bears’ offense, which will likely lead to a defeat. Iowa State is 19-1 under head coach Paul Rhoads when holding teams under 24 points and 3-22 when allowing 24 or more points. Defensively, the team ranks third in the Big 12 Conference in scoring defense, allowing 27.0 points per game.

Cincinnati vs. Louisville

No shame in losing inside the Glass Bowl

Cincinnati may have been peeking ahead to this contest in last week’s 29-23 setback to the Toledo Rockets as 5.5-point road favorites, which also served as the team’s first road game of the 2012 campaign. The Bearcats have managed to out-gain all six of their opponents this year, including a 123-yard edge last Saturday. The program is 0-3 straight up and against the spread (ATS) off an upset loss as a favorite over the last two-plus years.

Cardinals are just getting by

Louisville will enter this marquee affair with a perfect 7-0 record, but it’s important to note that four of the last five wins have come by seven or fewer points, which has resulted in a 2-3 ATS mark in that span. The Cardinals are now focused on trying to go 3-0 in Big East play for just the second time in school history. College football handicappers will find that this team is 10-6 ATS against conference opponents since 2010.

Getting on the board first is paramount

Scoring first is important in any matchup, but it may prove to be vital in this affair, considering the Bearcats have outscored their opponents by a 58-9 advantage in the first quarter this year. On the other side, the Cardinals have trailed or been tied at the half or have fallen behind in the third or fourth quarter in their last four games. Live bettors may want to follow this trend if the opportunity presents itself on Friday night.

Bridgewater will be tested

Sophomore Teddy Bridgewater has completed 73.4 percent of his throws for 1,694 yards and 11 touchdowns this season, as the Cardinals signal-caller connected on 21-of-25 passes in last week’s 27-25 victory over the South Florida Bulls as six-point home favorites. The Bearcats will provide a stiff challenge, as they lead the conference in sacks per game, while sitting second in pass efficiency defense.