Temple - 1 at Kent State +1
Not sure what I am missing here.
I like Temple - 1 here. Kent State is bad.
Not sure what I am missing here.
I like Temple - 1 here. Kent State is bad.
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i was originally planning on being all over Temple but the Reverse line movement has scared me off. went from -2.5 to -1 yet 70 percent of wagers are coming in on temple.Originally posted by sportsguy04
i think the play is the over though.Comment -
I think Temple is the play as well, but am gonna look at it a bit moreComment -
home field advantage maybe?Comment -
home field hasnt meant jack for them yet....Kent St. has bad losses to bad teams....temple has decent losses to pretty good teams. They played central michigan and western michigan tough, took uconn and buffalo and navy down to the wireComment -
Whatifsports has it 22-19 Kent, Temple was a -1 point dog at home last year and won 24-14, Scout.com says Temple 23-17Comment -
I have a hard time taking a team that has covered 1 game all year. Temple seems to be the play and I like over.Comment -
wow I too like Temple. too many people here on the same side . That scares me. Oh well GL Temple backers.Comment -
over
i like the over kent state scores alot mostly on the corners and in the air i think they have one adv against the tem d that is speed.i also think temple scores kent state is going to play some young guys on def , and try to give them a chance to play, ks is weak on the edge and at def safty look for temp to h it the corners and have some play action pass over the top for long scores. bolComment -
ATSedge has 2 opinions on the game temple under and temple -1Comment -
Don't know if I play this one yet but I like Kent and Over.
Maybe just a really small tease.Comment -
I am on Kent State (pick 'em) for a small play due to the significant reverse line movement. Let's go Golden Flashes!!!Comment -
how can you base line movements on the ONLY reason you make a play...wtf?Comment -
Yea this trend is really starting to bother me too.Originally posted by SportsLockPicks
"Im gonna go with Y because the line moved"
or
"Im gonna go with X because everyone else is on Y"
WTF is wrong with you people?
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i'm on the fence about the RLM. But can anybody explain why all money was on Temple at over 70% last night, and the line drops from -2.5 to -1. If someone can give the closest logical reason as to why that has happened, i'd greatly appreciate it............Comment -
Anybody know if this game is going to be televised?
Link to a stream?Comment -
That 70% figure might not be accurate. Nobody knows where everyone's money is, its silly to think that they do.Originally posted by manofmythComment -
ok, but why drop the line?Comment -
RLM is over-rated...as it doesn't play a down in the game.Comment -
so why drop the line over 1.5 pts 24 hours before kickoff? Forget about RLM. What is the logical reason the books did this??Comment -
It's classic "double reverse line movement"Originally posted by manofmyth
Kind of like double secret probation.
By dropping the line they get people like you to think, "hey, why the heck did the line move down? I think I'll bet on Kent now."
When in actuality, a move from 2.5 to 1 is not that significant since it doesn't cross a major number. But it probably did drum up so more plays for the books on Kent, such as yourself.
Remember this point, in lesser profile games involving lesser profile teams, reverse line movement holds less water. In big games involving major schools, especially public darling's, it should be considered more of a factor. But not a game like this.Comment -
THANK YOU!!!Originally posted by laxdjock
People think the RLM plays in the game, all it does is gets peoples attention and make them wonder who they should bet on.
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Temple under 47 and Cent Mich +4 was my little play. Does anyone know if Temple/Kent is on TV?Comment -
I look at it, but sometimes people over think movement. Books move it for a number of reasons, and rarely does it change the way I cap a game. It might move to a "No Play" if it goes past major numbers, but besides that I stick with what I cap.Originally posted by sportsguy04THANK YOU!!! People think the RLM plays in the game, all it does is gets peoples attention and make them wonder who they should bet on.Comment -
i told you guys take the over and i gave you the reason i will be back thursday with more picks bolComment -
Manofmyth!
Hope this article will help you understand more about RLM.
Reverse line movements can lead to big profits
By: LT Profits Sports Group | sbrforum.com
People often refer to “the smart money” when betting, but is there anyway to quantify this? Fortunately, the answer is yes, and tracking reverse line moves is the key.
Every week, regardless of the sport, head-scratching upsets take place that have bettors cursing the heavens and crying foul while ripping up there tickets.
For example, how could the lowly Miami Dolphins of the NFL beat a San Diego Chargers team than many predicted to go to the Super Bowl outright? Or how could a terrible Michigan football team upset a Wisconsin club that was expected to challenge for the Big Ten title?
Well, both of these games had something in common that shrewd bettors could have used to their advantage, and that could have made these upsets both expected and profitable. Welcome to the world of reverse line movement.
Reverse line movement takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction. For example, in the two cases above at least 75 percent of all bets were placed on the Chargers and Wisconsin respectively. Yet, the Chargers line dropped from an opener of -7 to a closing line of -5½, while Wisconsin fell from -6½ to -5. You all now know what transpired on the field on each occasion.
So what causes reverse line movement when the aim of most bookmakers is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors. You see, reverse movement takes place when more money is bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares). Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money.
Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run.
To back this up, our friends over at Sports Insights have tracked the records for games where over 60 percent of the public has been on one side, yet there was reverse line movement of at least one full point from the opening number to the close at the top books in NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NCAAB. As you can see, this strategy has been profitable in every sport. Note that these records are for sides only and do not include totals.
At Least 60% of Bets on Side, Reverse Line Move of at least 1 point
League W L P Pct. Units
NFL 2008 18 13 1 58.1% 2.83
NFL 2007 155 130 9 54.4% 18.62
NCAAF 2008 137 106 8 56.4% 17.51
NCAAF 2007 227 156 4 59.3% 49.49
NBA 2007-8 221 182 6 54.8% 18.89
NCAAB 2007-8 272 203 11 57.3% 42.04
Also, games where over 60 percent of the public are on one side yet there is reverse line movement of at least 10 cents on the Money Line from the opening number to the close at the top books in MLB and NHL has also been profitable. Again, these records are for money lines only and do not include totals.
At Least 60% of Bets on Side, Reverse Money Line Move of at least 10 cents
League W L P Pct. Units
MLB 2008 518 600 0 46.3% 131.98
NHL 2008-9 1 0 0 100% 0.95
NHL 2007-8 224 229 0 49.4% 85.69
Obviously, this approach produces a lot of underdog money line plays, as you can see by comparing the winning percentages in MLB and NHL with the units won. However, one cannot quibble with the results, and dare we say, this is an approach that makes money in the long run without doing any handicapping.Comment
