Am I Crazy For Thinking Texas A&M +3.5 is One of The Best Plays This Week

Pivotpoint · 10-17-12, 05:12 PM

csknight3,

Nice write-up. Lots of good points. I highlighted LSU when the lines were first posted. Number seems to be pretty sharp and I just can't see an edge here.

LSU could have a real hard time getting up for this game. History has shown that teams struggle to get up after huge games like the Tigers just had against the Cocks. More so when they hit the road.

I was really impressed with Connor Shaws stats prior to LSU game. Game was on the road and that's a tough place to play at night, but Tiger D really threw him off his game.

I had the Cocks + 3, but got lucky with that back door cover. The Tiger offensive and defensive lines were literally mauling the Cocks in the trenches. That's really where games are won.

Manziel has great numbers but lets not put to much faith in a freshman. He's been lucky to be at home against Gators and now Tigers. I feel the Tigers are going to put huge pressure on this guy.

Remember (2) very important facts.

1. Manziel was a relative unknown in Game 1 vs the Gators. Tigers have great defensive coaches and a great defense. These guys have plenty of tape on Manziel, now. They know his tendancies. Yes, he hasn't shown many weaknesses, but you can bet that Tiger D coaches have found some and will have a plan to exploit. They have the weapons to do this and their is no subsitute for experience or lack thereof.

2. That A&M Defense is horrific. A&M Defense surrenders 234 more YPG against lined opponents in comparison to LSU. I usually look hard when I see a + 100 number with this stat.

If you were LSU how would you game plan? They are going to win in the trenches and just pound the ball and eat clock. Have to think Tigers will blitz often and hard, stunt and try to confuse a promising but young QB with an assortment of coverage packages.

Good luck with your play. I went from initially liking LSU to thinking I'll pass due to the reasons stated above. Might tease the Tigers on a parlay, because I just can't see them losing after they recorded a loss against Gators.

eeezzzz · 10-17-12, 05:15 PM

You are over thinking this. I don't care how good of a red shirt freshman Manziel is. If he scrambles as much as he has been against this LSU defense he will get pulverized. This is his 1st look at a lethal defense.

In fact I will honestly say that LSU -3 looks to be 1 of the juiciest pics of the week. Did you see how many points A&M gave up last week? LSU's offense looked a million times better last week and I don't see this defense slowing them down any. A&M won't see much of the ball in this game.

To me this looks to be a very dominating game. LSU matches up VERY WELL against this A&M team.

eeezzzz · 10-17-12, 05:16 PM

Not saying Florida isn't a great defense, I'm just saying they weren't what they are now.

csknight3 · 10-17-12, 05:55 PM

Thank you all for your post.

Pivotpoint - I agree LSU has great defensive of coaches and will have a scheme ready to stop Manziel, the question is will it work? Also need to consider A&M has very good offensive of coordinators who know how to put point on the board some way. You might see a lot more running this game with Malena, Williams and the bulldozer Michael, if Manziel is struggling. You had very valid points and I see where you are coming from. Good luck this week.

ez - A&M gave up those points after relaxing. Their heads were not in the game after such a big lead and they were lazy and sloppy. Don't think it will be like that at Kyle Field against a subpar offense attack of LSU. Also need to point out two A&M defensive starters were out in that game, including Linebacker Jenkins who like most linebackers is a huge leader and controller on defense. Also look for Moore of A&M leading the SEC in sacks to get after Mettenberger who hasn't proven himself yet. Good luck on your play though.

CrimsonTideFan · 10-17-12, 10:34 PM

csknight3 · 10-19-12, 12:44 PM

The media is scarying me by hyping up Manziel more than I even did. But I still really like +3.5

Big Bear · 10-19-12, 12:48 PM

nice write up. you just talked me out of betting on LSU. Gonna lay off this game.

cutchemist42 · 10-19-12, 02:31 PM

I'm on TAMU, I think the team is very underrated. I got on this game early in the week.

suicidekings · 10-19-12, 05:26 PM

The biggest unknown in this game is how Mettenberger is going to perform. LSU has TAMU beaten easily in terms of defense and special teams, but a bad performance from their own freshman QB could make this game a lot closer than it should be, or even allow the Aggies to cover/win. The noise in College Station could very easily make that happen, and LSU has not looked good in either game away from Death valley this year.

As for the Aggies, I think it's fair to say we don't really know what this team's identity is yet. Their offense is potent, but they continue to go through lapses on defense where they look extremely vulnerable. It's really unfortunate that they had to make up the Louisiana Tech game this past week, costing them their bye week before an incredibly tough 4 weeks against LSU, @Auburn, @MSU, @Alabama.

I'm in the minority in thinking LSU is much weaker this year than last, and they've had a tough time on the road. Even last week, they won against South Carolina by a narrow margin in a game they absolutely had to have. This is a tough matchup for the Tigers at one of the tougher venues in the FBS. This is the biggest game TAMU has played this year since Florida in Week 2, and I would think the atmosphere will be intense.

Lean to TAMU, but no play yet.

wakeforestfan · 10-19-12, 05:45 PM

Love this play as well, and have a few sharp guys on it that i know of.
I think Aggies make a statement here and blow out LSU

pensfan1919 · 10-19-12, 06:02 PM

I don't think A&M can stop LSU's run game.

LSU will be able to slow down Manziel enough for LSU to win.

tmgissy · 10-19-12, 11:00 PM

wouldnt call you crazy. this game can go to anyone. put small amount on LSU and if it loses I wouldnt be shocked.

MTek · 10-19-12, 11:14 PM

This is the week that the most over rated team in the FBS is exposed, even if their defense is at its best, offensively they're toothless.
I can't wait til LSU falls out of the BCS picture. Their body of work this year is laughable and getting rid of them early will only be better for college football as a whole
I have TAMU +3 at even money and am tempted to sprinkle some on the ML as well

CrimsonTideFan · 10-19-12, 11:22 PM

I like A&M in this spot... LSU is coming off a big win over SC, and now they go on the road where they have not been at their sharpest playing an 11 AM game against a team that plays well @ home.

Boomstick6 · 10-20-12, 01:35 AM

Great thread!!! Nice work OP and other contribuators. LSU has great defense but I just can't back a program that could easily not score a TD in any given game. When LSU was AT HOME against Towson, MD they led by 8 points at half time. Eight points. Towson. Are you serious???

Lakers714 · 10-20-12, 02:16 AM

I actually love LSU in this spot. Johnny Football hasn't seen a defense like this and he will be exposed. The Tigers roll, don't over-think this one. The better team and the better coach. LSU covers. And for those that think this game will be a let down? R u kidding me? With the BCS, every single game is as important as the next. If they lose this game, it won't be because they weren't prepared or up for it.

CBASS · 10-20-12, 04:58 AM

LSU all day..

Other things to consider:

Early kick and LSU fans travel well.
Johnny Football is still a freshman who hasn't seen complex defensive schemes like the ones from LSU.
Everytime one of those '70 pts a game' offenses plays a real D', they crash and burn.
How in the hell is A&M gonna stop the smashmouth running game the Tigers will throw at them??
LSU wants to head into the bye week at 6-1 before they play Bama. National Title hopes are still alive.

pulledclear · 10-20-12, 05:01 AM

eeezzzz · 10-20-12, 05:55 AM

As good as it gets fellas.

Single #268042818

Football - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(371) LSU -4 (-105) Oct 20/12@12:00p
Competitor: (372) Texas A&M

Web

US$ 561.00

US$ 534.29

eeezzzz · 10-20-12, 06:03 AM

This is a shippppppity doo da day. I will probably wake up (literally wake up) in the 2nd half pleased with my results. So excited the public is on a true freshman QB who has practically no experience against a lethal defence. Manziel for the love of god please don't try to get more yards than you can. Don't get hurt you are fun to watch.

Concussion in the near future hahahahhhhahahahhhahahahahaha

Bigh2001 · 10-20-12, 07:45 AM

Like under 52 more than the line.

csknight3 · 10-20-12, 07:56 AM

Originally posted by eeezzzz

This is a shippppppity doo da day. I will probably wake up (literally wake up) in the 2nd half pleased with my results. So excited the public is on a true freshman QB who has practically no experience against a lethal defence. Manziel for the love of god please don't try to get more yards than you can. Don't get hurt you are fun to watch.

Concussion in the near future hahahahhhhahahahhhahahahahaha

Nope sorry.. YOU are on the heavy public favorite. 66 LSU - 34 A&M and it used to be even higher than that.

csknight3 · 10-20-12, 07:58 AM

Also I'm not saying LSU D isn't good, but who have they played this year that has an offense style like A&M. None. So you can argue both ways. I'm going with the homedog. Just my opinion. Too much value especially in +3.5 for A&M. Good Luck today guys.

Dfjay9 · 10-20-12, 08:41 AM

Originally posted by Bigh2001

Like under 52 more than the line.

this

PlayTheSpread · 10-20-12, 08:49 AM

Best play on the board? Yes, you're crazy

jimminn · 10-20-12, 08:54 AM

Yep U r crazy liked the write up on the quarterback. I am on LSU good luck

indian giver · 10-20-12, 09:29 AM

One thing that hasn't been mentioned is Kyle field. The fan base is starving for a signature win. The place will be rocking this morning. I'm on ATM ML +150.

mv09 · 10-20-12, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by Lakers714

I actually love LSU in this spot. Johnny Football hasn't seen a defense like this and he will be exposed.

Florida > LSU
and the playcalling for that game was so vanilla.. both Johnny and KK have both improved at their respective jobs.

Originally posted by CBASS

Other things to consider:

....
Johnny Football is still a freshman who hasn't seen complex defensive schemes like the ones from LSU.

See above

FWIW, Manziel has better statistics than Cam Newton and Tim Tebow in their respective Heisman Trophy Winning seasons.

Also, LSU's strength will be negatated by A&Ms O-Line. A&M has the best O-Line in the country, led by two (yes, two by every nfl draft scout (pick your favorite)) 2013 first round draft picks offensive tackles. Mingo and friends will have trouble getting to JFF.

Joekel and Matthews > Mingo + Montgomery

Originally posted by pensfan1919

I don't think A&M can stop LSU's run game.

LSU will be able to slow down Manziel enough for LSU to win.

Reasonable. I disagree, but good luck!

Originally posted by eeezzzz

To me this looks to be a very dominating game. LSU matches up VERY WELL against this A&M team.

N
Couldn't disagree more.

LSU's strength is their dline and A&Ms O-Line is better.
A&Ms weakness is pass defense and LSU's weakness is pass offense.

Originally posted by Pivotpoint

1. Manziel was a relative unknown in Game 1 vs the Gators. Tigers have great defensive coaches and a great defense. These guys have plenty of tape on Manziel, now. They know his tendancies. Yes, he hasn't shown many weaknesses, but you can bet that Tiger D coaches have found some and will have a plan to exploit. They have the weapons to do this and their is no subsitute for experience or lack thereof.

No offense but that's the most square argument I've heard. Every college football player has 'tape' on them. You say he hasn't shown many weaknesses, but its okay because there is tape?

Originally posted by Pivotpoint

2. That A&M Defense is horrific. A&M Defense surrenders 234 more YPG against lined opponents in comparison to LSU. I usually look hard when I see a + 100 number with this stat.

No its not. LaTech game was an outlier. Many suspended players and only played about 15 players on D I believe. Most of the defensive team played over 100 snaps!! Patton is a monster and he just burned the corners, but LSU has nothing even close to Patton.

Originally posted by Pivotpoint

If you were LSU how would you game plan? They are going to win in the trenches and just pound the ball and eat clock. Have to think Tigers will blitz often and hard, stunt and try to confuse a promising but young QB with an assortment of coverage packages.

Nope.

A&M will win in the trenches and LSU won't blitz. You can't blitz a scrambling QB who runs an Air Raid offense with 4 and 5 wide receivers. That's a recipe for disaster.

mv09 · 10-20-12, 10:26 AM

LSU could very well win this game, but if you still think this years LSU team is anywhere near as good as last year's, you are deeply mistaken. I'm not betting this game, but A&M would be the play

suicidekings · 10-20-12, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by mv09

No offense but that's the most square argument I've heard. Every college football player has 'tape' on them. You say he hasn't shown many weaknesses, but its okay because there is tape?

This is actually not accurate. The Gators game was A&M's first game of the year, and they hadn't heavily publicized Manziel going into that game. There would have been the standard recruiting videos out there, but starting this season, very few people thought Manziel was going to be this good. It was pretty obvious Florida didn't know what to expect at the start of that game.

mv09 · 10-20-12, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

This is actually not accurate. The Gators game was A&M's first game of the year, and they hadn't heavily publicized Manziel going into that game. There would have been the standard recruiting videos out there, but starting this season, very few people thought Manziel was going to be this good. It was pretty obvious Florida didn't know what to expect at the start of that game.

I was at the game (Post history for proof). You're right that nobody knew what to expect out of Manziel and they shut down the offense in the 2nd half when KK decides to not throw the ball past 5 yards, but like I said they both have improved dramatically.

The problem at that game was that Johnny was hesitant letting go of the ball and KK was hesitatant in making him make that throw down the field. The playcalling has improved drastically. Johnny is letting it go.

A&M was faster than Florida (except Gillislee, nobody is faster that him) and outplayed Florida. It was a classic A&M loss reminiscent of the Sherman era. A&M's dline owned Florida's oline. A&Ms corners shut down Florida's receivers.

A&M was simply better than Florida. Today they have the opportunity to finish the game. Great Matchup for A&M. If they are going to pull an upset (because people still think LSU is elite for some reason), it's this game because I still don't think they will be close with Alabama. We'll see

suicidekings · 10-20-12, 10:55 AM

Originally posted by mv09

I was at the game (Post history for proof). You're right that nobody knew what to expect out of Manziel and they shut down the offense in the 2nd half when KK decides to not throw the ball past 5 yards, but like I said they both have improved dramatically.

The problem at that game was that Johnny was hesitant letting go of the ball and KK was hesitatant in making him make that throw down the field. The playcalling has improved drastically. Johnny is letting it go.

A&M was faster than Florida (except Gillislee, nobody is faster that him) and outplayed Florida. It was a classic A&M loss reminiscent of the Sherman era. A&M's dline owned Florida's oline. A&Ms corners shut down Florida's receivers.

A&M was simply better than Florida. Today they have the opportunity to finish the game. Great Matchup for A&M. If they are going to pull an upset (because people still think LSU is elite for some reason), it's this game because I still don't think they will be close with Alabama. We'll see

LSU still has a secondary they can trust in man to man coverage. Driskel only managed 61 passing yards against them. Connor Shaw got 177 but only managed 3/13 3rd down efficiency. LSU made stops when they needed them. So their secondary is solid. If LSU approaches defending him in the same way Florida did in that 2H, it creates a situation where Manziel will have to win the game with his arm, not his legs.

Ultimately, they lost by 3 to Florida, won by 3 over Mississippi, and otherwise their opponents haven't been high caliber. Arkansas can't stop ANYONE this year, and SC State & SMU are nothing to brag about. I think it should be a concern that A&M gave up 57 to Louisiana Tech last week, no?

mv09 · 10-20-12, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

LSU still has a secondary they can trust in man to man coverage. Driskel only managed 61 passing yards against them. Connor Shaw got 177 but only managed 3/13 3rd down efficiency. LSU made stops when they needed them. So their secondary is solid. If LSU approaches defending him in the same way Florida did in that 2H, it creates a situation where Manziel will have to win the game with his arm, not his legs.

Ultimately, they lost by 3 to Florida, won by 3 over Mississippi, and otherwise their opponents haven't been high caliber. Arkansas can't stop ANYONE this year, and SC State & SMU are nothing to brag about. I think it should be a concern that A&M gave up 57 to Louisiana Tech last week, no?

LSU's defensive passing numbers were, imo, a direct result of their dline pressure, something I've mentioned would be a negated by A&M OLine. Louisana Tech's offense is really good. I know its hard to believe since they've been a pretty mediocre team for years, but they move the ball real well and Patton is an absolute monster. He's one of the best WRs in the country and exposed A&Ms spotty pass D. A&Ms defense got worse as the game went on because they simply got tired. A majority of the guys plays over 100 snaps. Injuries, suspensions, etc all led to the team being on the field for way too long with a team who runs a no huddle. Their defense is better than the 57 would indicated

CBASS · 10-20-12, 03:09 PM