Large Favs coming off a bye---AZST

WinningIsKeY · 10-11-12, 06:01 PM

I like it. Big gap in talent here as well! Went big on first half -16 +140 . Gl family

mandude · 10-11-12, 06:49 PM

Those are nice trends to back against a trash team like Col, but the one thing that has me worried is how much did Arz St prepare/look forward to Oregon next week? They SHOULD walk all over the Buffs here but laying -22 on the road on national tv to a team with nothing to lose and a possible looking ahead situation to the Ducks has me worried.

ShogunRua · 10-11-12, 06:56 PM

can u separate the home/away records on those? Colorado isn't exactly a tough place to play, but...just sayin.

Pivotpoint · 10-11-12, 07:05 PM

I'm on ASU - 21 1/2. Just logged in and number jumped to - 22 1/2

Tons of variables, but I always check the YTD Spread record.

Arizona St 4 -0 - 1

Buffs 1 - 5

This one sealed the deal.

ASU Head Coach Todd Grahm 10 - 2 ATS when having extra time to prepare. Not a top play but 1X on ASU and I love to put these Thurs Night games on the front end of a 2 or 3 team parlay or round robin. gl

JMon · 10-11-12, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by ShogunRua

can u separate the home/away records on those? Colorado isn't exactly a tough place to play, but...just sayin.

In fact quite a disparity...good catch. ugh... Since the 2007, same parameters 2-2 ATS on the ROAD, last win NEB (-24.5) over MIN ...41-14 (2011). It appears we have a HOME system...I failed to see.

JMon · 10-11-12, 07:36 PM

Another simple one to put in your back pocket...

Simply fade a home dog of 14.5 or more after a loss off 28 or more. 3-0 this year...24-8 L3. Let me know if want me to list the games and dates.

WinningIsKeY · 10-11-12, 07:48 PM

Sharer of information = friend. Hopefully we all get a piece of this pie! Gl man

JMon · 10-11-12, 11:41 PM

Originally posted by WinningIsKeY

Sharer of information = friend. Hopefully we all get a piece of this pie! Gl man

M.W. · 10-12-12, 07:16 AM

JMon - congrats onlast night's winner.

Can you tell me, what are the numbers for a large ROAD favorite off a bye that lost the game before the bye? I believe that's a negative situation that would apply to Oklahoma State. Can you check your numbers and let me know whether I'm right? Thanks.

JMon · 10-12-12, 08:53 AM

^ can you specify "large"

M.W. · 10-12-12, 09:21 AM

Let's say greater than 16-point favorites

JMon · 10-12-12, 10:38 AM

Road favs of more than 16 following a loss and coming off a bye of 11 days or more

17-3 SU - 3-16-1 ATS since 1987 (average line -23.5)

Last game...2008 ARI (-39.5) v WAST, 59-28

OKST does fit in this situation.

Road favs of more than 16 following a loss and coming off a bye of 13 days or more

15-3 SU - 3-14-1 ATS (ave line -23.6)

M.W. · 10-12-12, 11:30 AM

Thanks for checking. That's a small sample, but it still looks like an exception to the generally positive situation for large favorites off a bye. So I'm going to pass on Oklahoma State. However, I believe Alabama qualifies in the same situation as ASU. Is that a play for you?

og4667 · 10-12-12, 12:57 PM

does alabama -21 fit this situation...they are coming off a bye.

JMon · 10-12-12, 03:57 PM

^ if you refer to my first post the parameters for the "since 2007" trend of that particular 55% system (were favs from -21.5 to -31) currently trending at 29-6-1 82.9% ATS with last night's win .

teams that are -21 favs, as Alabama, are 4-2 ATS 66.6% since 2007 within that situation. As to why I made the cut off-21.5. However, it looks like Ala is going to -21.5.

OKST is the only play as of now that fits the situation tomorrow which I am unsure of whether I am even going to play it since last night we found the situation better fits the home fav team, rather than the road fav. Anyway, I use other factors along with a database to make my plays. I will be sure to post if I find something worthwhile.

Capnitrite · 10-12-12, 04:01 PM

Yes, yes

M.W. · 10-13-12, 11:37 AM

Good work, JMon. And good luck today.