A lot of angles to look at that I think will make a case for the Red Raiders. Before the season started UWV had two games circled on their calendar, one was last week vs Texas in Austin. Ex Big East team joining the Big 12 and looking for respect vs a big time football program. These kids were sky high gave it their all and beat Texas.! Now they travel to Lubbock to play TT. No matter who you are it is always hard to win back to back conference road games. UWV will be physically and emotionally spent and will lack focus in getting prepared for TT because the other game circled is next week. These are just kids we are talking about who can not wait to play @ home vs a very good Kansas State team.( ranked # 6) A perfect sandwich game.!! I think UWV is playing over their heads, look at QB Geno Smith 24 TD'S and zero int's. Last week RB Buie rushed for 207 yards before that in 12 games played his highest game total was just 87 yards. TT does have great #'s on defense, # 1 in pass D and #13 in rushing D. Granted these #'s are due to playing inferior teams but they did hold Oklahoma to only 121 yards rushing last week.! To a smaller point the weather will be windy on Sat. in Lubbock with winds wsw @ 15-20 mph this will hurt UWV more than TT. The Red Raiders have a history of loosing to bad teams and winning vs good teams............................Good luck to all.!
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Good post. It sounds like you are making a stronger case against WVU than for Texas Tech though. I think Tech's defensive numbers are all smoke and mirrors, as proven last week vs Oklahoma. West Virginia's offense has a big advantage over Tech for the following reasons:
1) Tech doesn't like to blitz. When they do blitz, they have trouble disguising it, allowing the opposing linemen and backs to pick it up. They usually sit back and take their chances in coverage. If they keep doing this, Geno Smith will carve them up.
2) Tech couldn't get OU off the field on 3rd down. OU converted 7 of 9 of their initial 3rd down attempts, mostly 3rd and 6+ yards to go, including two 15+ yard TD passes. This is another area that the WVU offense excels in, and they could really create some problems for Tech.
I think WVU will continue to roll and put up some points in this one. If it turns into a quarterback duel, who's side do you really want to be on: Smith or Doege? You have to ride the hot hand and Smith until he proves otherwise. For this reason I think this is either WVU, over, or no play.Comment -
wind is the one reason i havnt bet wvu or over yet.... ill stick with yet cause i luv this wvu offense and think if conditions are decent they will torch this team, even with letdown, travel, all that i still like the air raid and geno smith to lay waste to a bunch of shithole big 12 defenses that mizzou typically scored 30+ against...Comment -
Yea you guys make good points we will see what happens. Also the line looks a little low to me............any thoughts on that.?Comment -
i think it there for all the reasons you stated,, there are no doubt some strong situational angles against wvu and it appears plenty of money agrees with those, as does "dr bob" and id imagine anyone shelling out the money he charges for picks is prob wagering fairly heavily...defense obviously a big reason as plenty of ppl wont trust a team like this that doesnt play d cause there bound to be a time where the offense isnt clicking, then what? normally im more on this train of thought myself i have just grown kinda enamored with this wvu team and dont think it their time to lose... my gmplan coming into big 12 play was to bet every wvu over , didnt even touch wvu last week, just over...now this week i lean more to wvu than the over, mainly cause of the wind you mentioned, i have to wait and see how much there truly will be...think this be more dangerous gm if it was at night in Lubbock as that place a zoo when they all wasted...Comment -
should be a good play every week in their big 12 gms, seriously doubt if you bet them all you be down at end of year, no one in that conf has a d i have all that much respect for and wvu can score on anyone..that said if it is windy as all hell to the point it gonna effect the passing gm that a really high total with gusty winds... just gotta wait and see on this one as i dont trust weathermen to predict what happening right now let alone days in advance...Comment -
One never knows with weather forecast but they are now saying 20-30 mph winds on Sat.Comment -
Putting a unit on the under 77.5 it looks like a windy day.....................glComment -
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I'm bout it. You bout it bout it?Comment -
WVU runs away with this one. Buie had 207 yards against Texas because they were using 3 or 4 man fronts to double team the WRs.
Also, wind won't be an issue except in the kicking game. Geno Smith doesn't put a lot of air on his passes.
My prediction WV - 63 TT -28Comment -
its WVU not UWV, and 15-20 mph really doesnt mean much to me. Geno has played in much worseComment -
Not 15-20, winds will be over 20 mph. But maybe it won't make a difference.Comment -
I teased it along with the under in the oregon st gameComment -
wow i saw that huge drop as well.. some major line reversal on that 70 percent of the betting on the over too....if this was an nfl game i would be loading up on the under after that but idkComment -
Don't know, but it looks pretty windy. Maybe that's part of the explanation.Comment -
I've been thinking this game over all week, and I just have to take the current -3 on WVU. I think the wind actually favours the Mountaineers here as Smith has the stronger arm among the two QBs, and WVU can move the ball very effectively on the ground. The public betting numbers get talked about a lot, and perhaps over the aggregate, the situational angles on Texas Tech being a small home dog are favourable, but WVU is the better team here, and I don't agree that Texas Tech has value here, even at the original +4. I expect WVU to win this game, covering the -3 easily. Sometimes the better team doesn't get the respect they should, but every year there are teams that continue to roll and the books are slow to catch up.
TT's first 3 wins were against Northwestern State, Texas State, and New Mexico, which really mean nothing. Their defense against ISU looks good on paper, but Steele Jantz is a shitty QB. Another easy game that's almost as meaningless as the first three. Then Oklahoma absolutely smothered them defensively while putting up 41. The game was over 6 minutes into the 2H. Obviously WVU's defense is much more porous than OU's but the divide between these teams is pretty big.
Square me up...Comment -
The Sooners are a substantially more dominant team on defense than anyone else WVU or TTech have faced, and I expect OU to beat WVU solidly when they play their game later in the season. I don't know that today's UT-OU outcome is any more relevant to this matchup than the one-sided games listed above. OU is just in a different league.Comment -
Texas Tech Red Raiders................................. .................
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