Ok, having an okay week so far. Got bit by the shankeroo football gods with TCU, but hey that's football right. Here's some plays I like Saturday.
Tennessee half -14 1 unit
I'm basically laying the 1 unit in expectation that Tenn shows up for Tenn HC Fulmer. With his announcement this week that he'll step down, I think this will be a motivational game for the Seniors and Juniors. They were all recruited by him, played tough for him, and will want to get everyones mind off of how bad they have played with a great showing for a weak road team in Wyoming. Wyoming doesn't play well on the road, and they're coming with some injuries to their QB, FB, WR's. If there were a time for Tenn to start playing, this would be the game. Reasoning for taking the half? I expect Tenn to come out strong, motivated, a weaker opponent. Don't think Wyoming will score much as Def will be on the attack. What does Tenn have to lose?
BYU/SDSU Over 59 1 unit
SDSU on the road, and playing at higher elevations just doesn't mix. They've played 2 of L3 games on the road in higher elevation, @ Wyoming L35-10, Wyoming isn't great, but had the advantage at home. 2 games before that, they traveled to New Mexico, another higher elevation stadium and got blown 70-7. Colorado St and BYU played last week to a shootout of 45-42, while Colorado St coming into that game was only avg 22pts a game. Either 2 things will happen, BYU will roll another big win against the bottom feeder of the MWC conference, or SDSU brings some kind of gameplan from the seas of San Diego to keep up. It'll be a plus if SDSU can put something on the board. Either way, this game should see points scored, with a majority of it in BYU's favor.
Vanderbilt +24 2 units
I like this matchup. This, to me that is, is just too many points coming off of that big win against Georgia last week. Gators put a lot into that game, evidenced by Tebow saying he hurt his foot. Tebow is gimpy with foot problems, backup QB has a hurt neck. Vandy is banged up as well, but I think HC Meyer doesn't want to unleash on the Commodores, he does have a game next week against "The Head Ball Coach" at home no less. As long as Vandy can limit the big pass plays, and play tough run D like that have all year, they should keep it close. All of Vandy's games have been close, the most points they've given up are 24 and that was to Georgia at Athens. A game that could've gone the other way. With injuries, and South Carolina coming up next week, Vandy should keep it close. I'll take the points at home with Vandy.
Utah St/Boise St Over50 2units
Utah St has been playing well lately, granted they are 2-7, but the last 2 games they've scored over 30pts a game. That has to give Utah St some sort of confidence travelling to Boise for this game on the Smurf Turf. Everyone knows the offensive capabilities of Boise St. Don't forget that Boise St's D has a lot of interceptions as well. If Boise St gets an early lead and forces Utah St's QB to throw, I think there might be 2+ INT's and if that happens, possibly a pick-6. As I've said in countless other threads, top-12 BCS teams right now need to win with conviction over mediocre teams to maintain their rankings. With Boise St playing Fresno St next week, HC Peterson will have his team focused. As said above, Utah St's O is geling right now, and their QB is getting more confidence, that should help with points being put up on Utah St's side. Even if Utah only scores 10-17 pts, that means Boise St only has to cover the other 40-33? I'll take may chances and take the over.
Florida St -5.5 3units
If you watched last weeks game against GTech, FSU should've lost that game by halftime. But, they made it close with a comeback, most impressive of a young team. Yah they lost on a way you don't want to lose. But i think that only gets them more geared for Clemson. They don't have to face that dreaded triple option attack that every team in the ACC is having nightmares gameplanning for. This is back to your old conventional rock-um, sock-um ACC football rivalry. As Pags said in his write-up, you're got to be kidding yourself if you don't think Tommy hasn't been talking to his pops and Amato about player tendencies. Wouldn't you?! So with coming of that loss, bad taste in their mouth. You know, Bowden and Co (and it is a company, with the way FSU has their coaches assigned) will roll over Clemson big. There isn't nothing more that'll please Bobby Bowden, then to kick Clemson's ass, and do it with vengence.
Also like Pags other plays see his thread for reasons; Iowa, Ok St, FSU, Louisville and NC St...Nebraska is a no play for me
****The lines shown above are from a local book I use****
Tennessee half -14 1 unit
I'm basically laying the 1 unit in expectation that Tenn shows up for Tenn HC Fulmer. With his announcement this week that he'll step down, I think this will be a motivational game for the Seniors and Juniors. They were all recruited by him, played tough for him, and will want to get everyones mind off of how bad they have played with a great showing for a weak road team in Wyoming. Wyoming doesn't play well on the road, and they're coming with some injuries to their QB, FB, WR's. If there were a time for Tenn to start playing, this would be the game. Reasoning for taking the half? I expect Tenn to come out strong, motivated, a weaker opponent. Don't think Wyoming will score much as Def will be on the attack. What does Tenn have to lose?
BYU/SDSU Over 59 1 unit
SDSU on the road, and playing at higher elevations just doesn't mix. They've played 2 of L3 games on the road in higher elevation, @ Wyoming L35-10, Wyoming isn't great, but had the advantage at home. 2 games before that, they traveled to New Mexico, another higher elevation stadium and got blown 70-7. Colorado St and BYU played last week to a shootout of 45-42, while Colorado St coming into that game was only avg 22pts a game. Either 2 things will happen, BYU will roll another big win against the bottom feeder of the MWC conference, or SDSU brings some kind of gameplan from the seas of San Diego to keep up. It'll be a plus if SDSU can put something on the board. Either way, this game should see points scored, with a majority of it in BYU's favor.
Vanderbilt +24 2 units
I like this matchup. This, to me that is, is just too many points coming off of that big win against Georgia last week. Gators put a lot into that game, evidenced by Tebow saying he hurt his foot. Tebow is gimpy with foot problems, backup QB has a hurt neck. Vandy is banged up as well, but I think HC Meyer doesn't want to unleash on the Commodores, he does have a game next week against "The Head Ball Coach" at home no less. As long as Vandy can limit the big pass plays, and play tough run D like that have all year, they should keep it close. All of Vandy's games have been close, the most points they've given up are 24 and that was to Georgia at Athens. A game that could've gone the other way. With injuries, and South Carolina coming up next week, Vandy should keep it close. I'll take the points at home with Vandy.
Utah St/Boise St Over50 2units
Utah St has been playing well lately, granted they are 2-7, but the last 2 games they've scored over 30pts a game. That has to give Utah St some sort of confidence travelling to Boise for this game on the Smurf Turf. Everyone knows the offensive capabilities of Boise St. Don't forget that Boise St's D has a lot of interceptions as well. If Boise St gets an early lead and forces Utah St's QB to throw, I think there might be 2+ INT's and if that happens, possibly a pick-6. As I've said in countless other threads, top-12 BCS teams right now need to win with conviction over mediocre teams to maintain their rankings. With Boise St playing Fresno St next week, HC Peterson will have his team focused. As said above, Utah St's O is geling right now, and their QB is getting more confidence, that should help with points being put up on Utah St's side. Even if Utah only scores 10-17 pts, that means Boise St only has to cover the other 40-33? I'll take may chances and take the over.
Florida St -5.5 3units
If you watched last weeks game against GTech, FSU should've lost that game by halftime. But, they made it close with a comeback, most impressive of a young team. Yah they lost on a way you don't want to lose. But i think that only gets them more geared for Clemson. They don't have to face that dreaded triple option attack that every team in the ACC is having nightmares gameplanning for. This is back to your old conventional rock-um, sock-um ACC football rivalry. As Pags said in his write-up, you're got to be kidding yourself if you don't think Tommy hasn't been talking to his pops and Amato about player tendencies. Wouldn't you?! So with coming of that loss, bad taste in their mouth. You know, Bowden and Co (and it is a company, with the way FSU has their coaches assigned) will roll over Clemson big. There isn't nothing more that'll please Bobby Bowden, then to kick Clemson's ass, and do it with vengence.
Also like Pags other plays see his thread for reasons; Iowa, Ok St, FSU, Louisville and NC St...Nebraska is a no play for me
****The lines shown above are from a local book I use****
... gotta fly under radar... b4 summer(hawaiian word for) finds out! know what i mean! K-den
