Falcon42 2012 Running Thread

falcon42 · 09-19-12, 01:49 PM

Week 4 Picks

Here are my first rounds of picks, I still haven't completed all of them however.

Wednesday:
Buffalo -4 (1u)

Thursday:
Boise St. -7.5 (2.5u)

Saturday:
Kstate +14 (2.5u)
Clemson +14 (1.5u)

falcon42 · 09-21-12, 11:10 AM

Unfortunate start so far this week, Buffalo underwhelmed and Boise St's offense looks like it has suffered from the losses of Harsin and Pease calling the shots. Anyways here is the rest of my weekends picks with some short explanations (for the first half when I had time lol):

Friday:
ULM +7 (2.5u) & a unit on them winning straight up
ULM has showed its not a fluke and just a strong team. They are at home and Baylor has always been awful on the road. LY 1-3 on the road while getting blown out by Texas A&M, and struggling in OT VS Kansas. This is a Baylor team without RG3. I just see them pulling out a close one, or perhaps even being upset.

Saturday

LSU -20.5 (1u)
Auburn looks bad and unmotivated. They looked decent in the opener VS Clemson, but since then seems like they have given up, and I think Chizik is a very mediocre coach who lucked out on Newton in 2010. I think LSU's offense is better, much better, than last season. The only reason why I have one unit on this game, is I don't like picking a team to win by 3 touchdowns in an SEC road game.

Georgia -15 (2u)
Vanderbilt always plays its SEC competition tough at home, but away is always a different story. Georgia beat a solid Mizzou Team by a couple scores at Mizzou, and I think Vanderbilt is much weaker than Mizzou. Vanderbilt barely has a clear cut starter. I am taking Georgia with a big win at home.

South Carolina -10.5 (1u)
What I like: Mizzou is missing their left side of the offensive line, and is already weak in the trenches. Franklin also isn't 100% healthy, and they don't have one 300+ pound DL. All that said, with Lattimore, and Scarolinas defensive line being at home, it is a recipe for disaster.

What I don't like: South Carolina has a offense that fails to put up points, and has a bit of a QB controversy in my eyes. Plus South Carolina has always been an inconsistent team. That is why I only have one unit on this play.

Illinois -3 (1.5u)
Kansas +9 (2u)
Syracuse -1 (2u)
Arkansas -9 (3.5u)
Notre Dame -4.5 (3u)
Arizona +23 (2u)
Kstate +14 (2.5u)
Clemson +14 (1.5u)

Here's to a good week, good luck everyone

falcon42 · 09-24-12, 01:31 PM

Wednesday:
Buffalo -4 (1u) Loss -1u

Thursday:
Boise St. -7.5 (2.5u) Loss -2.5u

Friday

ULM +7 (2.5u) & a unit on them winning straight up WIN+1.5u
Felt like I had this nailed solid, and would of even had the upset had ULM not suffered injuries late. Felt like they were just kind of worn down

Saturday

LSU -20.5 (1u) Loss -1u
The only reason I didn't put weight in this was because SEC road game, that should have been the reason I stayed away from it completely. LSU's offense had its first test against SEC defense, and it looks like they are no different than last year.

Georgia -15 (2u) Win +2u
I saw a lot of value here due to seeing how week Vandy is on the road. Good play nice win.

South Carolina -10.5 (1u) Win +1u
I saw the weakness with injuries on right side of mizzou o line, and am kicking myself for only putting one unit of value in this one. Oh well a win is a win.

Illinois -3 (1.5u) Loss -1.5u
Kansas +9 (2u) Win +2u
Syracuse -1 (2u) Loss -2u

Arkansas -9 (3.5u) Loss -3.5u
This was my biggest disappointment in myself this weekend, thought the only reason Arkansas was losing was because they were missing their MVP and QB in Wilson, but that was only the beginning of the problems for this Arkansas team. Not mad so much in the play, but making it the biggest play of the weekend is why im disappointed in myself.

Notre Dame -4.5 (3u) Win +3u

Arizona +23 (2u) Loss -2u
I knew Oregons offense was going to pour it on in second half because of lack of depth for Arizona, what I didn't see coming was Oregon shutting down the Arizona offense.

Kstate +14 (2.5u) Win +2.5u
Clemson +14 (1.5u) Win +1.5u

6-7 overall, Even in units.

So overall not a bad weekend, because breaking even is better than losing. Will post more picks for this weekend as it comes and here is an update on my record YTD:

Year to Date: Up 27.5 Units
YTD Record: 38-27-1

Week 1: +24.5
Week 2: + 7 Units
Week 3: -4 Units
Week 4: Even

falcon42 · 09-25-12, 09:46 PM

Very strong play for this Thursday, here is my first pick for the week.

Stanford - 6 @ Washington (4.5u)
Washington got blown out at LSU. Not just because of the intimidation factor of being in death valley, but because they have two below average offensive tackles and LSU had edge pressure on Price all night. Stanford accomplished the same thing against USC (pressure off the edge). Washington also has given up a 174 yards per game on the ground. Stefan Taylor I believe is the best running back in the nation. These two glaring mismatches makes me put a lot of weight in this play. I know Stanford is playing its first true road game, but they have a(nother) good head coach in David Shaw and coming off the bye week I see them winning this by at least two scores. I would have taken Stanford all the way to 13.5, seeing it down to 6, I just saw too much value to pass up.

More to come later

falcon42 · 09-26-12, 08:57 AM

Here is one for Saturday

Missouri +2.5 @ UCF (3.5u)

I called for Mizzou to get blown out by South Carolina and Georgia this year, but that is because they have a banged up offensive line, and Georgia and South Carolina had one of the top front 7s in the nation. UCF actually has a pretty good front seven, for CUSA standards though. UCF could not handle Ohio St rushing attack (which is very similar to Missouri's).

What I like:
The numbers that gave me this play was that UCF is giving up 4.2 YPC, despite playing Akron and FIU. Mizzou is getting 3.9 YPC despite playing South Carolina, Georgia, and a decent Arizona State team. I think Mizzou's YPC reflects the strength of schedule, and UCF might give up even more than 4.2 due to their relatively easy schedule. I think the reason why Mizzou wins this game is because their rushing game, and being battle tested.

What I don't like:
UCF is converting 53% on 3rd down, and getting 7.5 yards per pass attempt. I think this has a bit to due playing Akron and FIU though, and those numbers will come down when playing a strong Missouri team.

Last time I checked Gary Pinkel consistently has Missouri winning +9 games. Just because they joined the SEC doesn't mean they are a bad team, they just don't match up well against SEC teams just yet due to lack of size and talent in the trenches. UCF isn't an SEC team though. I think Missouri gets their season back on track and finishes this season well to make a bowl game. Here is their first statement game.

falcon42 · 09-27-12, 05:59 PM

I was looking closely at the Hawaii/BYU Matchup Friday night judging to see if there was a play on the spread... didn't like the 26.5 either way that I had, but as I was looking through a lot of numbers and information, I saw that the O/U was set at 49! Could not believe that it was that low. Hawaii has given up 49 points or more in both D1 matchups this season. They gave up 69 to Nevada. I see Hawaii putting up a couple TDs, with BYU taking care of the rest and easily covering. I would have taken the over all the way to 56.

Disclaimers:
(I don't bet on totals too often because I feel like they are a bit unpredictable, for example high scoring teams like Oregon and Arizona you would think might break 100, they didn't even break 50 because Oregon jumped to big lead and then held Arizona to a shutout.)

(I do bet on something every Thursday/Friday night, so when I am at the bar, or at home drinking a few beers I have some rooting interest... usually I just throw one unit on the game, but if there is value I will put a few more in it)

Either way I took Hawaii/BYU OVER 49 and put 3 units on it.

Hawaii/BYU OVER 49 (3u)

falconticket · 09-27-12, 06:39 PM

Good write ups . Gonna take the home dog tonight though.

falcon42 · 09-27-12, 10:32 PM

Looking like a good play for you so far... I can't believe Stanford has struggled this much to establish a run game. They have done what I thought they would on defense however. Oh well still time.

Anyways here are the rest of my picks for Saturday. I haven't seen this much value in one weekend since week 1.

UCONN -16 VS Buffalo (2u)

UCONN has a solid defense, and Buffalo is banged up and has a struggling offense. UCONN has covered, and won 7 straight in this series.

Texas Tech -3 @ Iowa St (2u)

Tubbs finally has some defensive talent growing into his system, and first year Defensive coordinator has them playing fast. They haven't had tough competition, but I think Tech is talented enough to be an above average team in the big 12 and start by a road win here.

California vs ASU (2.5u) SU

California has had a tough schedule and has been competitive, and even out gained the buckeyes in yardage, in both losses. Arizona St has had a lot of breaks this year, and aren't as good as their record suggests. CAL takes this one.

Texas @ Oklahoma St -2.5 (4.5u)

Big play here, and I must admit I have money on Texas to win the big 12 this season. They have a very talented defense, an SEC caliber one at that, and their offense is coming around. Texas always has stockpiles of talent, and now they finally have some talent with some experience. Ash is completing 70% of his passes, and Texas has two great defensive ends. Oklahoma St doesn't even have their starting QB? I think this line underrates how good Texas is this year, and also puts too much weight in Oklahoma St just because their season last year. My biggest play of Last Season was this game, betting on Oklahoma St. (I put 25 units on it... which I rarely put more than 5 on any game, but OSU -6 at that time was the biggest lock I saw last year). This year I am going the other way.

Rest of my picks:
Indiana +11 (2u)
Ohio St +2.5 (2u)
Arizona -2.5 (2u)
Alabama -30 (1u)
San Jose St. -3 (2.5u)
Illinois Straight Up (1u)
Ball St -2.5 (1u)
Duke +2 (1.5u)
W Michigan -1.5 (1.5u)

Along with the 3 I posted earlier:
Stanford -6 (4.5u)
Hawaii BYU Over 49 (3u)
Mizzou +2.5 (3.5u)

Good Luck this weekend

falcon42 · 09-29-12, 11:51 AM

Was running through all the lines early this morning, decided to add Akron on the ML VS Miami(OH), threw 2.5u on it.

falcon42 · 09-30-12, 11:34 AM

UCONN -16 VS Buffalo (2u) Loss
Texas Tech -3 @ Iowa St (2u) Win
California vs ASU (2.5u) SU Loss
Texas @ Oklahoma St -2.5 (4.5u) Win
Indiana +11 (2u) Loss
Ohio St +2.5 (2u) Win
Arizona -2.5 (2u) Loss
Alabama -30 (1u) Loss
San Jose St. -3 (2.5u) Win
Illinois Straight Up (1u) Loss
Ball St -2.5 (1u) Loss
Duke +2 (1.5u) Win
W Michigan -1.5 (1.5u) Loss
Stanford -6 (4.5u) Loss
Hawaii BYU Over 49 (3u) Loss
Mizzou +2.5 (3.5u) Win

6-10 LOST 6 Units

Very rough week, My three most confident plays were Missouri, Texas, Texas Tech, and Stanford, which I hit 3 of 4... I should cut back on the amount of plays and get back to having quality over quantity. The season is still young and I am hoping to have a good mid stretch run.

Year to Date: Up 21.5 Units
YTD Record:44-37-1

Week 1: +24.5 Units
Week 2: + 7 Units
Week 3: -4 Units
Week 4: Even
Week 5: -6 Units

falcon42 · 10-01-12, 09:57 PM

After reviewing the first part of the season, I have noticed a lot of trends that will be very helpful moving forward:
- I am very accurate calling ATS in the Big 12 & ACC
- I am middle of the road when it comes to non bcs, big east, Big 10 and SEC plays
- I am very inaccurate out west in the Pac 12 ATS

After going through a bit of an unsuccessful run the past couple weeks, I thought it might be important to see what is working and what isn't, and where I seem to be the most successful. I historically (over the past few years) have been very accurate in the Big 12 and the SEC, so I will continue to have plenty of plays there, especially entering conference play.

Here is to a strong mid stretch run and avoiding the pac 12

falcon42 · 10-02-12, 10:09 AM

A few tweaks I am making this week:
-I will add plays as I make them, but I might start off with 1 unit on a play, and have 2 or 3 on it by game time, depending on line moves and injury reports.
-Will have more of an emphasis on the big 12 and SEC, with a few Big 10/ACC/non BCS plays as well.
-Will avoid Pac-12 games for the most part (might have plays on thursday, because like I have said before, I put money on thursday night games a lot of times for entertainment purposes, For now on I am going to disclaim that I am only making a play because it is a thursday night/ friday night/ monday night game etc.

Here are two of my early plays:

Iowa St. +11

I might have this as an upset pick, I think TCU is vastly overrated. I don't think they are much improved from LY, and now being in the Big 12 the quality opponents week in and week out are going to raise. I know Iowa St isn't the best example of a solid Big 12 team, but one thing Iowa St. does is play tough every week. Iowa St is a poor mans Kansas St, with a strong running QB, a solid and underrated set of linebackers, and a team that is well coached. I think Iowa St has played a tougher schedule to date. Here are some numbers on why I think this will be a close game (under 10 points to me is a close game).

-Iowa St and TCU are very comparable on the ground, Iowa St. projects to get around a 3.8 YPC while TCU will project to get around a 3.4 YPC.

-TCU has an advantage in the year, getting 9.8 Yards per pass attempt. Iowa St has a pretty decent pass defense giving up only 5.4 yards per attempt, and holding Seth Doege of Tech to 7.2 yards per attempt, but gaining two interceptions. This is TCU's biggest advantage, but looking closely it isn't has wide of a margin as one would think.

-Iowa St has a slightly better 3rd down % than TCU, 41.9 vs 37.3.

-Iowa St was 4-2 ATS as an away dog, while TCU was 2-4 as a home favorite.

I am only putting a unit on this game because I want to see where the line moves by Saturday and also see what develops on the injury report, but I could see not only putting a unit more on the spread, but perhaps a single unit on the ML for an upset.

Kansas St -24 VS Kansas (2.5u)

Every simulation system I have run and seen has had K-State winning by more than 28 60-70% of the time. This game reminds me a lot of the 62-14 domination K state had over texas a&m in 2009. Bill Snyder has a very well coached team, and I don't see a letdown here, Here are some numbers for you:

-Snyder is all time 9-1 vs Kansas with his only loss coming in his first season 23 years ago in 89.

-Bill Snyders average margin of victory is 32 points versus Kansas.

-K state convers 55% on 3rd down compared to kansas at 25%

-K State has a superior rush offense, rush defense, pass offense, and pass defense to Kansas.

-K-State has an average 25 point margin of victory while Kansas is averaging a 2 point loss so far this season.

Kansas hasn't really played that tough of a schedule, while K state has. Crist isn't playing up to his potential under Charlie Weis and Kansas has very little going for them. This has the makings of a big time blowout. This might have some more weight in it come gametime saturday.

falcon42 · 10-02-12, 02:04 PM

Texas -7 vs WVU 1 Unit

I still have it at -7, and the moment it jumps to 6.5 I will probably put a half unit or perhaps a full unit on Texas covering. This play is very dependent on line movement, and the Injuries for Texas: (all starters) K Fera, NT Moore, Adrian Phillips, LB Jordan Hicks. They are all listed as questionable so going to pay close attention to what the deal is with these guys as the week goes on.

Running my numbers it shows that it will be a very close game, but this is an instance that I think WVU is quite overrated and Texas is still a little underrated. I still don't see a big win on WVU's resume this season or quite frankly last. Texas did give up 556 to Ok. State, but they also have an offense playing very well. WVU is actually a bit suspect on the left side of their line, and Texas has one of the top DE tandems in the nation. Qandray Diggs will be able to match up pretty well against Tavon Austin. I am not saying Texas will shut out WVU, but they will not give up more than 40 I believe. Dana Hol. put up 14 against the 09 Texas team, and 36 against the Texas team that was god awful when at Ok State. I don't think WVU has as good as an offense as Ok State did two years back with Weeden/Blackmon/Hunter. I know Geno Smith is great and all, but every QB has looked great against Baylor. Also aside from Maryland, West Virginia hasn't played any BCS level schools.

West Virginia also struggled a little on the road last year, losing to Syracuse and struggling with Rutgers and Cincinnati.

I believe the big 12 title is a two team race between Kansas State and Texas, and even though West Virginia has that offense, they are up to a rude awakening to playing very strong competition week in and week out.

falcon42 · 10-03-12, 09:16 PM

Texas Tech +5.5 (1.5u)
Texas A&M -11 (2.5u)
LSU -2.5 (3u)
Mizzou -6.5 (1.5u)

no time for write ups, might add some later in the week

falcon42 · 10-04-12, 03:58 PM

Here are all my plays so far on Thursday (some were added, others had value added to them)

USC/Utah Over 48.5 (2u)
Syracuse -1.5(1.5u)
Iowa St +11 (1u)
Purdue +3 (1u)
Kansas St. -24 (2.5u)
Texas -7 (1u)
Texas -6.5 (3u)
Texas Tech +5.5 (1.5u)
Texas A&M -11 (2.5u)
Georgia +1 (2u)
LSU -2.5 (3u)
Mizzou -6.5 (1.5u)

I probably won't add anymore games, but I will add a few more units on a few plays perhaps. The public has really shifted a few lines in my favor this week. Plus having TCUs QB out with a DWI really helps my Iowa St. Play, wish I had originally more units on that play.

Edit: I never learned the difference between "where" and "were" apparently

falcon42 · 10-06-12, 10:07 AM

up half a unit headed into Saturday... too bad that Syracuse play was off by a point... the O/U USC Utah game looked like it was going to hit after 3 minutes in the first quarter haha.

here are a few additions:

2 units on Georgia South Carolina UNDER 54.5
1 unit on ML Georgia
1.5 units on Iowa State ML (I already thought this was a possibility, without Pachall though, I think its pretty strong liklihood Iowa State wins this one outright)

Also here is a Teaser for the Weekend:

2.5 units to win 3.5 units:

A&M -6.5
LSU +4.5
Georgia +8.5

Heres to a good Saturday

falcon42 · 10-07-12, 08:17 AM

Teaser 2.5 units to win 3.5 units: LOSS
A&M -6.5
LSU +4.5
Georgia +8.5

Other Plays:
2 units on Georgia South Carolina UNDER 54.5 WIN
2.5 units on Iowa State +11 & ML WIN
USC/Utah Over 48.5 (2u) WIN
Syracuse -1.5(1.5u) LOSS
Purdue +3 (1u) LOSS
Kansas St. -24 (2.5u) WIN
Texas -7 /-6.5 (4u) LOSS
Texas Tech +5.5 (1.5u) LOSS
Texas A&M -11 (2.5u) LOSS
Georgia +1 & ML (3u) LOSS
LSU -2.5 (3u) LOSS
Mizzou -6.5 (1.5u) LOSS

4-9 Lost 11.5 units

Tough week, just a few observations:

-This difference between LSU TY & LY is the honey badger. They win that game (and possibly cover) with him, this year they don't- that simple. They have an anemic offense.

-Georgia was overrated, which I picked up on, but I thought South Carolina had no way to score any points, and they had a very strong offensive game. I knew how good their defense was, but did not see 35 points put up by that offense.

-Mizzou really struggles against any SEC team.

-Texas A&M's freshmen qb was due for a "freshmen" game, and it happened to hit during his first SEC start. I should have known better.

Year to Date: Up 10 Units
YTD Record:48-46-1

Week 1: +24.5 Units
Week 2: + 7 Units
Week 3: -4 Units
Week 4: Even
Week 5: -6 Units
Week 6: -11.5 Units

falcon42 · 10-10-12, 09:27 PM

Texas +3 (2u)
South Carolina +3 (2u)
KState -6.5 (5.5u)
West Virginia -3.5 (2.5u)
Texas A&M -7 (3.5u)
Baylor -9 (1.5u)

More to come

falcon42 · 10-12-12, 10:05 AM

Alabama -21 1 unit
UAB +14 1.5 units
Pitt +3 2.5 units
Notre Dame -7 1 unit
Florida -8.5 1 unit
Wisconsin +1.5 2 units
Southern Miss +16.5 2 units
Western Kentucky -2.5 2 units
Northern Illinois -14 2 units
NC/Miami Over 68.5 2 units

and an addition to the earlier picks:

South Carolina +3 (2u) added one unit, so 3 units now.

and recap of earlier:

Texas +3 (2u)
KState -6.5 (5.5u)
West Virginia -3.5 (2.5u)
Texas A&M -7 (3.5u)
Baylor -9 (1.5u)

Good luck to everyone this week

falcon42 · 10-12-12, 10:09 AM

Also I did a small Teaser, 1.5 units to win 1.5 units: Texas & South Carolina +10

falcon42 · 10-13-12, 01:08 PM

Texas pick em for second half (1unit)

falcon42 · 10-13-12, 06:53 PM

Tenn SU 2 units
Parlay Aggie SU win and Baylor -6 30 to win 44
Add another 1.5 units to Southern Miss @ +16
Arkansas -17 (2.5u)