D.Johnson @ +250

[Hannibal]

No one likes DJ at +250? or DJ dec @ +382.?..which is his likely path to victory

It seems to me that DJ shouldnt be that big a dog. While benavidez is a more effective striker with regards to doing damage.. i think DJ can do his usual darting in and out and fool the judges if its on the feet.

Does that mean everyone expects benavidez to be able to take dj down easily? I think DJ is lacking some defensive wrestling, but it shouldnt be enough to make it +250

[Vaughany]

You have to think that Benavidez can/will have his way with Mighty Mouse if he does want to take it to the ground after seeing how Brad Pickett got the better of the grappling and how Uncle Creepy dominated that last round of their first fight. Benavidez also offers the big threat of the guillotine if Mighty Mouse tries to take him down...something MM hasnt had to worry about in previous fights. Can't knock anybody for playing MM by decision though as it isnt out of the question.

[Hannibal]

Mccall must have known that his path to victory in their second fight would be by wrestling as well...
yet dj was able to adjust and completely nullify mccall's wrestling game in their second fight

[Vaughany]

yep, seems MM is very good at adapting and changing style. But McCall was also just very off that night and admitted after that he completely ignored the gameplan (which was to use his wrestling) and fought like an idiot.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Hey mods, does there really need to be numerous different threads for each fight, let alone each card? Does this phaget really need to make a new thread to say "I don't think DJ should be that big of a dog"?

Or is he saying some deep cryptic shit that needs a whole new thread, or did he do all this just to say "I don't think a dog should be priced that high" like a brainless focking retard?

[Kaladarus]

I think the odds are close to where they should be for this one. If you like DJ take the decision prop though because he has almost no chance of finishing.

[gabe]

Hey mods, does there really need to be numerous different threads for each fight, let alone each card? Does this phaget really need to make a new thread to say "I don't think DJ should be that big of a dog"?

Or is he saying some deep cryptic shit that needs a whole new thread, or did he do all this just to say "I don't think a dog should be priced that high" like a brainless focking retard?

lol can't help but to love this guy

[bogbat]

Hey mods, does there really need to be numerous different threads for each fight, let alone each card? Does this phaget really need to make a new thread to say "I don't think DJ should be that big of a dog"?

Or is he saying some deep cryptic shit that needs a whole new thread, or did he do all this just to say "I don't think a dog should be priced that high" like a brainless focking retard?

This forum is slow so why give a shit.

P.S I know you are trolling, but still..

On topic, I think the most value is in Benavidez inside the distance (+332 currently at 5dimes) but its hard to pull the trigger on a big play because without ever seeing MM get stopped it is hard to visualize it. In both of Demetrious's losses and his draw he was out wrestled and I see the same thing happening again. Also, if anyone is going to stop MM in the division right now its Benavidez in a 5 round fight.

[DeFactoCrippler]

This forum is slow so why give a shit.

Normally I would ignore the thread but this phaget called mighty mouse "D. Johnson", who the fock does that. I clicked because I wanted to see who he was talking about, but instead it was some idiot telling me why he liked mighty mouse in 10 words or less.



PS: The forum is slow because school just started and 95% of the mma forum are phaget kids aged 19-22 (or even younger) who like to make 5 different threads about how they are going to bet $10 on mighty mouse.

[Vaughany]

lol

[BIGDAY]

If Defacto was a mod something tells me he would just delete half the threads completely just for fun.

I honestly don't see where MM has a major advantage in this fight.

[BIGDAY]

When I make plays on underdogs I want to make sure they have a distinct advantage and are able to exicute it.

[bogbat]

^^ MM is incredibly fast. His speed seemed to confuse Cruz on the feet. It will be interesting to see how Benavidez handles it. Although, just like Cruz, Benavidez will probably take MM down.

[Vaughany]

^^ MM is incredibly fast. His speed seemed to confuse Cruz on the feet. It will be interesting to see how Benavidez handles it. Although, just like Cruz, Benavidez will probably take MM down.

yeah Benavidez also has more power than Cruz....Cruz is more of a point scorer

[Oblivian]

Against certain opponents, Mighty Mouse should look to avoid grappling. If most of the fight stays standing, I can see this going either way. I think Mighty Mouse would be more likely to win on points but Benavidez has the power to KO or stun him. If grappling becomes involved throughout, I think Benavidez takes it. The problem with Mighty Mouse is that he tends to engage in grappling when he shouldn't. The only plus to this is that Benavidez likes to stand as well. I'm going to take a stab on Mighty Mouse, but I don't think there is that much value.

[Dillonious Monk]

You have to think that Benavidez can/will have his way with Mighty Mouse if he does want to take it to the ground after seeing how Brad Pickett got the better of the grappling and how Uncle Creepy dominated that last round of their first fight. Benavidez also offers the big threat of the guillotine if Mighty Mouse tries to take him down...something MM hasnt had to worry about in previous fights. Can't knock anybody for playing MM by decision though as it isnt out of the question.

Ehh, the Pickett fight was at 135...and DJ showed improvements in his 2nd fight with McCall as far as conditioning which is the main reason he got completely controlled by Mccall in the last round of their first fight.

Plus this dude just hasn't had as many fights as Joseph B. He looked improved in his last fight with McCall, so wouldn't you assume he's going to be extremely motivated for this title fight and probably even improve a bit more? The thing is, he was always undersized at 135. Joey B fought there as well, but he seems a little bit bigger than DJ imo so these guys fighting at 125 as opposed to 135 favors DJ more if you ask me...

I could see DJ point fighting using alot of kicks and in and out punching. Even if his strikes aren't the most damaging he lands at such a high volume that he can steal rounds. He is also super springy and athletic so I'm not sure Benavidez can do a good job of controlling him on the ground. Plus as someone mentioned earlier, Joey likes to stand so I really wouldn't be surprised if he came with a gameplan that wasn't strictly based around grappling (which would give him his best chance to win). He will probably come with a mixed plan but look to strike for the majority of the time.

I favor Benavidez to win, but being able to get DJ by decision at +380 something definitely has value imo.

Not sure how people can see value in the Benavidez line. Why not just wait for an off line like the Machida vs Bader fight if your going to lay down that kind of juice.

[Vaughany]

Ehh, the Pickett fight was at 135...and DJ showed improvements in his 2nd fight with McCall as far as conditioning which is the main reason he got completely controlled by Mccall in the last round of their first fight.

Plus this dude just hasn't had as many fights as Joseph B. He looked improved in his last fight with McCall, so wouldn't you assume he's going to be extremely motivated for this title fight and probably even improve a bit more? The thing is, he was always undersized at 135. Joey B fought there as well, but he seems a little bit bigger than DJ imo so these guys fighting at 125 as opposed to 135 favors DJ more if you ask me...

I could see DJ point fighting using alot of kicks and in and out punching. Even if his strikes aren't the most damaging he lands at such a high volume that he can steal rounds. He is also super springy and athletic so I'm not sure Benavidez can do a good job of controlling him on the ground. Plus as someone mentioned earlier, Joey likes to stand so I really wouldn't be surprised if he came with a gameplan that wasn't strictly based around grappling (which would give him his best chance to win). He will probably come with a mixed plan but look to strike for the majority of the time.

I favor Benavidez to win, but being able to get DJ by decision at +380 something definitely has value imo.

Not sure how people can see value in the Benavidez line. Why not just wait for an off line like the Machida vs Bader fight if your going to lay down that kind of juice.

Yep you could argue that. But one could also argue that the fact McCall used his wrestling in the first fight was also a contributor to why he dominated the last round, then proceeded to not use his wrestling at all in the re-match (which was what he alluded to in his post-fight interview with Helwani when he said he was embarrassed by his performance and for not sticking to the gameplan). Yes, MM clearly made adjustments in his weight-cut which helped him have improved cardio in the re-match but how will he cope in a five-rounder at 125 against a typical Team Alpha Male guy that is well-rounded and has excellent cardio?

Benavidez has said in a couple interviews that he sees some weaknesses in MM's game which he will be looking to exploit and I believe he referenced the McCall last round and the Pickett fight. You are right that Mighty Mouse is super-springy and athletic making it hard to keep him on the ground or have any control, but again on the flip-side this could well play in to Benavidez's hands as the constant transitions could well present Benavidez with the perfect opportunity to lock in the Alpha Male guillotine!

Mighty Mouse by decision definitely isn't out of the question, much stranger things have happened in MMA. Like you say he does have high volume so can easily steal rounds if his opponent gets passive/too casual.

[Rubber Guard]

Like others have said, only play on Mouse is by dec.

I think the odds are pretty tight, Joe B. is no joke. He should have the advantage pretty much anywhere. Johnson could do some weird Guida/Condit type gameplan and win the fight on the scorecard. But I don't see him straight up out-striking or out-wrestling Benavidez.

[MD]

He is also super springy and athletic so I'm not sure Benavidez can do a good job of controlling him on the ground. Plus as someone mentioned earlier, Joey likes to stand so I really wouldn't be surprised if he came with a gameplan that wasn't strictly based around grappling (which would give him his best chance to win). He will probably come with a mixed plan but look to strike for the majority of the time.

I favor Benavidez to win, but being able to get DJ by decision at +380 something definitely has value imo.

I don't think this is a reasonable assessment of Benavidez's skills, or his game-planning, at which he is extremely adept. He almost (and arguably) beat Dominick Cruz, in a fight during which he was at every physical disadvantage you can imagine, through good game-planning. He focused primarily on power counters and blistering hooks to shut down Cruz's in-out game, tagging him whenever he tried to get on the inside, and he did it almost as well as one could imagine. The speed edge is there, but is negligible, and the cardio edge should favour Benavidez. If Johnson slows down, even slightly, the clear and distinct advantage goes to Benavidez. Johnson is a great offensive wrestler, but Benavidez is a good enough defensive wrestler to mostly stifle Dominick Cruz, who is much bigger and arguably stronger. Johnson, conversely, is not a great defensive wrestler, which should cost him against Benavidez. One of the most overlooked skills Benavidez possesses is an unbelievable scramble; if Johnson ends up in a situation where he's jockeying for position, he'll almost certainly end up on the losing end, and that is big. He has a good fight IQ, but against a bigger, stronger, more intelligent (in-ring) fighter such as Joseph Benavidez, who also possesses a distinct grappling edge and even a possible striking edge, I don't think there's really any value in betting on Johnson.

[DeFactoCrippler]

If Defacto was a mod something tells me he would just delete half the threads completely just for fun.

Things would certainly be run differently, thats for sure. More posters need to police the phaggotry that goes on around here.

When that wannabet phaget made his first gimp mask bondage video nobody said shit except for me and imsmarterthanu. Which means that wannabet was comfortable with the phaggotry level of the forum that he thought he could get away with that, and he was right for the most part.

Lol, not only did nobody else say shit, but you yourself actually WHITE KNIGHTED him! Holding his hand while he denied having a lisp and shit. You probably thought he was a cool guy, wanted to party with him in Vegas having like two drinks before he got sick and you carried him to bed and tucked him in like those bash videos.

As far as I'm concerned, punisher is the only other one that didn't tolerate such phaggotry. This forum, and the world in general needs more people like him.

[BIGDAY]

[bogbat]

I saw that gimp mask meme on other forums. I had no idea it originated here.

[Dillonious Monk]

I don't think this is a reasonable assessment of Benavidez's skills, or his game-planning, at which he is extremely adept. He almost (and arguably) beat Dominick Cruz, in a fight during which he was at every physical disadvantage you can imagine, through good game-planning. He focused primarily on power counters and blistering hooks to shut down Cruz's in-out game, tagging him whenever he tried to get on the inside, and he did it almost as well as one could imagine. The speed edge is there, but is negligible, and the cardio edge should favour Benavidez. If Johnson slows down, even slightly, the clear and distinct advantage goes to Benavidez. Johnson is a great offensive wrestler, but Benavidez is a good enough defensive wrestler to mostly stifle Dominick Cruz, who is much bigger and arguably stronger. Johnson, conversely, is not a great defensive wrestler, which should cost him against Benavidez. One of the most overlooked skills Benavidez possesses is an unbelievable scramble; if Johnson ends up in a situation where he's jockeying for position, he'll almost certainly end up on the losing end, and that is big. He has a good fight IQ, but against a bigger, stronger, more intelligent (in-ring) fighter such as Joseph Benavidez, who also possesses a distinct grappling edge and even a possible striking edge, I don't think there's really any value in betting on Johnson.

I just feel like it is more of a benefit for DJ to be fighting at 125 than Benavidez. DJ seems a little bit smaller, and to me he looked alot improved in his last fight. Cruz could barely hold DJ down so I really don't see Benavidez holding him down for long or subbing him. Cruz got DJ's back and he spun out and created a scramble and was back on his feet in seconds...so if a 135 pound Cruz can't control him for long then I don't see a 125 pound Benavidez doing it. Also, your assessment of Benavidez being bigger and stronger at 125 has yet to even be put to the test. His only fight there lasted like 2 minutes and showcased no grappling...whereas DJ has fought 6 rounds already and showed considerable improvement in the conditioning and grappling department....because lets be honest, Ian Mccall is a very good wrestler and a pretty good grappler. Is he quite as good as Joey B? Probably not, but DJ easily stuffed his TD's in the 2nd fight or got up instantly when he was taken down. Sure he may have got away from his gameplan early, but he did try to go back to it, and had no success whatsoever.

DJ is used to fighting guys with a reach advantage, as is Benavidez, but DJ will have the reach this time around and the speed advantage...probably the first time ever he will have the speed and reach advantage over his opponent...that is big. Both guys have good hands but I would say DJ's are faster, though Benavidez's probably have a bit more pop. But, being at FW, and seeing how tough both guys are, and knowing that neither guy has ever been finished, I don't expect either guy to get knocked out anyways...and knowing what a high volume DJ throws at, ya gotta think he can steal some rounds. I would also give DJ a slight edge in kicking ability. I've seen Joey B throw some damn good flying knees but I don't expect him to land anything huge against the speedy little rooster_eater. I don't expect DJ to throw many kicks though because then obviously he leaves himself more exposed to being taken down.

Another thing is that everybody knows how hard guys at Alpha male train. What about DJ? He obviously didn't take his first fight with McCall as serious as their 2nd fight...and as I mentioned earlier, knowing this is a world title bout, wouldn't you expect him to maybe even improve a little bit more from that fight?So based off of that, I see him as having more room to improve than Benavidez. Benavidez has been pro longer and has fought better competition for a little longer...and Cruz had improved quite a bit by the time he fought DJ. Look at how he handled Faber in their rematch as opposed to getting guillotined in a minute and a half in their first fight.

I think Benavidez will win a close fight but I definitely believe there is value at DJ +385 or whatever by decision, especially when you consider how many bullshit decisions there are in MMA. At +385 by decision that gives DJ roughly a 21% chance to pull it off. I definitely think he has a better chance than that...+385...still not even sure I am going to play it but +385 is appetizing. Actually, I really might not. There are so many fight cards coming up...and even if there is value I do like to just be selective with plays that have a higher probability of winning...but a win off a 1u bet gets you almost 4u...and if you can do really good on the 8 or so cards there are in a 3 week span, then 1u isn't going to hurt you...but almost 4u would be a nice treat if it could hit

I'll tell you a play I really, really like though...

..and that is a Jones ITD/Stipe Miocic parlay. 100 gets you 75. Struve gets bailed out on the ground against guys with no BJJ in alot of his fights but no way he is bringing the much better wrestler in Miocic to the mat imo. Miocic is also the better striker with the better chin and is smarter imo.

and getting rid of almost half the juice on Jones ITD as opposed to Jones straight is an absolute gift imo

[PunisherIND]

Things would certainly be run differently, thats for sure. More posters need to police the phaggotry that goes on around here.

When that wannabet phaget made his first gimp mask bondage video nobody said shit except for me and imsmarterthanu. Which means that wannabet was comfortable with the phaggotry level of the forum that he thought he could get away with that, and he was right for the most part.

Lol, not only did nobody else say shit, but you yourself actually WHITE KNIGHTED him! Holding his hand while he denied having a lisp and shit. You probably thought he was a cool guy, wanted to party with him in Vegas having like two drinks before he got sick and you carried him to bed and tucked him in like those bash videos.

As far as I'm concerned, punisher is the only other one that didn't tolerate such phaggotry. This forum, and the world in general needs more people like him.

lmao. and we accomplished our mission of exiling wannabet and thereby ensuring less phaggotry and a greater level of cerebral mma discussion.