UFC 153: Guess The Lines

[Joe_Shabadoo]

I'm looking forward to, if the rumors are true, taking Belcher over Belfort, and then Teixeira over 'Page.

What do you guys suppose the lines will open at for these two (hopefully) fights?

I'm hoping Belcher opens at least around +175.

Glover? Don't know yet.

[Vaughany]

It's Nick Kalikas undercover everybody!

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Is that the dude from the oddsbreaker videos? Anyway, no - not him.

And if this stems from an inside joke, I'm not privy to it.

You don't have an opinion either way, V? Football is my realm; I'm just trying to gather as many educated opinions as possible here.

[sideloaded]

dumb thread idea, you're literally throwing money away discussing any of this publicly.

[Vaughany]

ha yeah just an inside joke! A few on here dont like to discuss potential lines before they are released as they think the oddsmakers like Kalikas look on here and use it to their benefit (I dont necessarily disagree with this)

[Joe_Shabadoo]

What? Really?

I know very, very little about MMA and its handicapping process compared to the consistently successful posters that I see on here.

My 'number' for Belcher was probably as poor of an attempt that one could make based on generic ratings, and based on what I could get for a favorite fighter of mine. It was basically like playing darts here, coming up with a '175' or whatever.

No worries. I understand where you guys are coming from now.

[v1y]

aldo -400, texeira -250, madadi -200, belfort -150, sarafian -200

I have full confidence I can give away lines for free and still make easy money.

[Vaughany]

aldo -400, texeira -250, madadi -200, belfort -150, sarafian -200

I have full confidence I can give away lines for free and still make easy money.

Seems about right

[Vaughany]

Belfort:
Guys I spoke to joe silva and ask to fight with the top contender #weidman here in brasil so I think this is the fight that will credence me to a title fight so that is what happened.
I want the belt but I am not desperate I think weidman is the next for the belt,but Anderson silva deserve to see who is next .So let`s make this fight the next #contender belfort vs weidman the next contender for #andersonsilva

[Beelzebubzy]

Weidman should get the next shot at brazil card

bisping stann number 1 contender faces winner
belcher Belfort at brazil faces winner of the Weidman silva bisping stann winner if that makes sense

[sideloaded]

ha yeah just an inside joke! A few on here dont like to discuss potential lines before they are released as they think the oddsmakers like Kalikas look on here and use it to their benefit (I dont necessarily disagree with this)

I made this point years ago and people laughed. That was before luca fury started posting here and sbr did these round tables with nick. No doubt they were reading back then. Heck ghost_kid is a personal advisor to joey odessa and defends the bookies at every moment. You can tell he doesnt gamble, but makes a steady pay check on the other side of the counter. People need to realize the bookie IS NOT your friend.

[Beelzebubzy]

Rampage -400
aldo +110
belcher +210
belcher tattoo looking normal +900

[DeFactoCrippler]

Is that the dude from the oddsbreaker videos? Anyway, no - not him.

And if this stems from an inside joke, I'm not privy to it.

Loshak told me one time the only place Kalikas could actually get laid was down in CR. He basically said anywhere except a third world country and vaginas dry up whenever Kalikas enters a room.

[Vaughany]

Renzo wants to fight at this event...auto fade material

[Beelzebubzy]

Renzo wants to fight at this event...auto fade material

I'll book him a fight
renzo vs Erik silva

Renzo -300

[DirtyX]

I'm not a big fan of speculating about what future lines will be before they are released publicly. Wait until the lines are out dude.

[Luca Fury]

Rampage -400
aldo +110
belcher +210
belcher tattoo looking normal +900

Keep dreaming! I wish Aldo would be +110. He'll be around -425 like he was last time,before the fight got scrapped.

Loshak told me one time the only place Kalikas could actually get laid was down in CR. He basically said anywhere except a third world country and vaginas dry up whenever Kalikas enters a room.

Nick is a friend and co-worker of mine, but this was pretty f*cking funny! Have to admit, I laughed pretty hard. Well done, defacto!

[Beelzebubzy]

Keep dreaming! I wish Aldo would be +110. He'll be around -425 like he was last time,before the fight got scrapped.



Nick is a friend and co-worker of mine, but this was pretty f*cking funny! Have to admit, I laughed pretty hard. Well done, defacto!

My lines are all fake because I want Joey o to read them and tail them
i played also at -390 before it got scrappedI also don't
expect page to be -400 when he was the dog vs shogun nor do I think there will be a line for the tat

[gabe]

aldo -400, texeira -250, madadi -200, belfort -150, sarafian -200

I have full confidence I can give away lines for free and still make easy money.

sarafian? who is he fighting?

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Duly noted; makes sense.

Just never had that way of thinking imparted upon me when discussing football lines, as that's basically all I've entered analyzed or wagered on.

[Vaughany]

Keep dreaming! I wish Aldo would be +110. He'll be around -425 like he was last time,before the fight got scrapped.

lol

[v1y]

sarafian? who is he fighting?

i'm taking an educated guess that sarafian will be fighting mutante.

[Luca Fury]

My lines are all fake because I want Joey o to read them and tail them
i played also at -390 before it got scrappedI also don't
expect page to be -400 when he was the dog vs shogun nor do I think there will be a line for the tat

Hahaha, that's funny! I like Joey, but he doesn't have some wacky lines sometimes.

I bet Weidman vs Maia at -135 so I thought he would win, but Joey opening him -365 was INSANE! Although maybe it was all a genius ploy to get people to bet Maia so his books could rake in the dough?

All the oddsmakers open wacky lines sometimes, even Kalikas. Nick seems to be the most accurate, though. Even when he's off, it's not by too much. I can;t recall any of his lines making me go "WTF???" like some lines at other books.

Worst 2 MMA lines of recent years that I can remember are Paulo Thiago opening -475 at 5Dimes vs Martin Kampmann and Fedor opening -200 vs Pedro Rizzo at Sports International. Those was unbelievable bad lines!

[sideloaded]

Hahaha, that's funny! I like Joey, but he doesn't have some wacky lines sometimes.

I bet Weidman vs Maia at -135 so I thought he would win, but Joey opening him -365 was INSANE! Although maybe it was all a genius ploy to get people to bet Maia so his books could rake in the dough?

All the oddsmakers open wacky lines sometimes, even Kalikas. Nick seems to be the most accurate, though. Even when he's off, it's not by too much. I can;t recall any of his lines making me go "WTF???" like some lines at other books.

Worst 2 MMA lines of recent years that I can remember are Paulo Thiago opening -475 at 5Dimes vs Martin Kampmann and Fedor opening -200 vs Pedro Rizzo at Sports International. Those was unbelievable bad lines!

Pat Healy -450 vs Hirota

[Vaughany]

lol

[Luca Fury]

Pat Healy -450 vs Hirota

Yeah, well, going into that fight, most people thought that was accurate.

No one could have thought Paulo Thiago should have been a 5-1 favorite vs Kampmann (I actually picked Martin to win there) and Fedor being only 2-1 vs Rizzo was beyond insane.

Fedor should have opened AT LEAST -2000. Pedro was so washed up, his power was gone and he didn't even have a puncher's chance. Rizzo's only way to win was is Fedor broke his leg or got cut.

[Vaughany]

Condit +170 against Hardy

[sideloaded]

Yeah, well, going into that fight, most people thought that was accurate.

No one could have thought Paulo Thiago should have been a 5-1 favorite vs Kampmann (I actually picked Martin to win there) and Fedor being only 2-1 vs Rizzo was beyond insane.

Fedor should have opened AT LEAST -2000. Pedro was so washed up, his power was gone and he didn't even have a puncher's chance. Rizzo's only way to win was is Fedor broke his leg or got cut.

most people have never seen a Hirota fight. He was sengoku champ for a reason. Healy is a complete f-cking can. Much like Hector Lombard. 75% of the UFC/SF is f-cking cans.

[PunisherIND]

Hahaha, that's funny! I like Joey, but he doesn't have some wacky lines sometimes.

I bet Weidman vs Maia at -135 so I thought he would win, but Joey opening him -365 was INSANE! Although maybe it was all a genius ploy to get people to bet Maia so his books could rake in the dough?

All the oddsmakers open wacky lines sometimes, even Kalikas. Nick seems to be the most accurate, though. Even when he's off, it's not by too much. I can;t recall any of his lines making me go "WTF???" like some lines at other books.

Worst 2 MMA lines of recent years that I can remember are Paulo Thiago opening -475 at 5Dimes vs Martin Kampmann and Fedor opening -200 vs Pedro Rizzo at Sports International. Those was unbelievable bad lines!

i noticed that fedor -200 line. insane. but i recall they pulled it down after a few days (according to bestfightodds) and when it went back up it was a more accurate line. do you have an account with sports int.? or anyone here for that matter? i was wondering if they honored that opening line.

[PunisherIND]

that dudu dantas +285 vs alex vila was pretty bad

[Luca Fury]

Condit +170 against Hardy

Yeah, that was another bad one.

most people have never seen a Hirota fight. He was sengoku champ for a reason. Healy is a complete f-cking can. Much like Hector Lombard. 75% of the UFC/SF is f-cking cans.

Sarcasm?

i noticed that fedor -200 line. insane. but i recall they pulled it down after a few days (according to bestfightodds) and when it went back up it was a more accurate line. do you have an account with sports int.? or anyone here for that matter? i was wondering if they honored that opening line.

No, I don't, because they are a weak book. I've heard bad things about them like limiting anyone who wins down to $50.

that dudu dantas +285 vs alex vila was pretty bad

That was laughable.

[MMAbetMASTA]

It's Nick Kalikas undercover everybody!

I knew it.............................

[Thor4140]

Aldo will be -400 for ten minutes and than his line will jump just like the Mendes/Cory fight. Only way Aldo loses this fight is if he comes in completely unmotivated which could happen.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Erick Silva vs Jon Fitch added per Helwani...

[TheCalculator]

Erick Silva vs Jon Fitch added per Helwani...

Wow -- that's gonna be an interesting fight!