UFC on FX 3...Big Play

[Luca Fury]

Have you even watched tape on Silva??? Look at his last fight that went over 1 minute vs Gil de Freitas, 4 fights ago. He got taken down at will and gassed in less than a round vs a far inferior wrestler to Brenneman.

How can you just assume his takedown defense and cardio have improved since then, when he's only fought for a combined 2 minutes? I wouldn't touch Silva here, in fact, I picked and bet Brenneman. As long as he doesn't get caught early, he'll takedown down wear out Erik. And with how bad Silva gasses, there's actually a chance Charlie finishes him.

[Crassus]

Silva didn't seem that much bigger than Charlie in the face-off photo, maybe it was the hair.

[fosho14]

Have you even watched tape on Silva??? Look at his last fight that went over 1 minute vs Gil de Freitas, 4 fights ago. He got taken down at will and gassed in less than a round vs a far inferior wrestler to Brenneman.

How can you just assume his takedown defense and cardio have improved since then, when he's only fought for a combined 2 minutes? I wouldn't touch Silva here, in fact, I picked and bet Brenneman. As long as he doesn't get caught early, he'll takedown down wear out Erik. And with how bad Silva gasses, there's actually a chance Charlie finishes him.

I'm aware of silva's deficiencies. I listened to your oddscast and everything both you and Nick said made a lot of sense (good job btw keep those comin!) The only play I'm going against you with is the silva fight, but it's definitely just going to be a tiny bet on silva at +135 ITD. I realize I am taking a risk here, but I do believe that silva will be able to finish brenneman in the first round. If not, then I suspect his chances will diminish the longer the fight goes and I suppose I'll look foolish. Guess we'll find out tomorrow. GL

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Have you even watched tape on Silva??? Look at his last fight that went over 1 minute vs Gil de Freitas, 4 fights ago. He got taken down at will and gassed in less than a round vs a far inferior wrestler to Brenneman.

How can you just assume his takedown defense and cardio have improved since then, when he's only fought for a combined 2 minutes? I wouldn't touch Silva here, in fact, I picked and bet Brenneman. As long as he doesn't get caught early, he'll takedown down wear out Erik. And with how bad Silva gasses, there's actually a chance Charlie finishes him.

You obviously put a lot of stock into a fight over a year and a half ago, but i suppose that is all we have to go on regarding Silva being on the ground and getting tested...do you think Silva has improved in these areas? For my sake, I hope so

[Luca Fury]

You obviously put a lot of stock into a fight over a year and a half ago, but i suppose that is all we have to go on regarding Silva being on the ground and getting tested...do you think Silva has improved in these areas? For my sake, I hope so

Can't ever assume he's improved. He's fought only 3 times since for a combined 2 minutes against terrible opposition.

Stehpen Thompson supposedly had a great ground game and excellent condition. His trainers and everyone kept saying that, but it was all lies.

Guys say all the time they've worked not heir weaknesses and improved but often times it's all BS. Can;t just take a guy's word for it, I goth see it.

And besides, even if Erick DOES have good takedown defense and cardio now, Brenneman outwrestled great wrestlers in Hendricks, High and Story. Can Silva's takedown defense really be better than those guys'? Hard to imagine it is, especially when the last time it was tested, it was against a weak wrestler and it looked AWFUL.

Not to mention, Brenneman is BY FAR the toughest opponent SIlva has faced. it's not even close. Erick hash;t fought anyone close to good yet. Charlie is a huge test in terms of level of opponent and style.

All things considered, I could never bet Silva at -200. Brenneman at +165 seems like the only smart play here. Sure, Charlie could get caught early and lose, but I would;t bet -200 on that chance. I like taking +165 that he won't get blitzed, though.

[Imsmarterthanu]

I think the chances of Silva pounding out Brenneman in 3 rounds is higher than Brenneman holding onto Silva for 3

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Can't ever assume he's improved. He's fought only 3 times since for a combined 2 minutes against terrible opposition.

Stehpen Thompson supposedly had a great ground game and excellent condition. His trainers and everyone kept saying that, but it was all lies.

Guys say all the time they've worked not heir weaknesses and improved but often times it's all BS. Can;t just take a guy's word for it, I goth see it.

And besides, even if Erick DOES have good takedown defense and cardio now, Brenneman outwrestled great wrestlers in Hendricks, High and Story. Can Silva's takedown defense really be better than those guys'? Hard to imagine it is, especially when the last time it was tested, it was against a weak wrestler and it looked AWFUL.

Not to mention, Brenneman is BY FAR the toughest opponent SIlva has faced. it's not even close. Erick hash;t fought anyone close to good yet. Charlie is a huge test in terms of level of opponent and style.

All things considered, I could never bet Silva at -200. Brenneman at +165 seems like the only smart play here. Sure, Charlie could get caught early and lose, but I would;t bet -200 on that chance. I like taking +165 that he won't get blitzed, though.

valid points, thanks for your analysis..

[NunyaBidness]

I think the chances of Silva pounding out Brenneman in 3 rounds is higher than Brenneman holding onto Silva for 3

Oh, so that's what the -180 after Silva's name means.

[GunShard]

[Imsmarterthanu]

Oh, so that's what the -180 after Silva's name means.

poor attempt at sarcasm

It might also have to do with the fact that Silva will be coming out even hungrier than before given the poor taste in his mouth his last fight left him with. He'll probably leave nothing to chance here, I see Brenneman getting sloppy in his fights all the time, he's going to get into a wild brawl with Silva whether he likes it or not, Silva will clip him

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Silva looks good..

[fosho14]

Can't ever assume he's improved. He's fought only 3 times since for a combined 2 minutes against terrible opposition.

Stehpen Thompson supposedly had a great ground game and excellent condition. His trainers and everyone kept saying that, but it was all lies.

Guys say all the time they've worked not heir weaknesses and improved but often times it's all BS. Can;t just take a guy's word for it, I goth see it.

And besides, even if Erick DOES have good takedown defense and cardio now, Brenneman outwrestled great wrestlers in Hendricks, High and Story. Can Silva's takedown defense really be better than those guys'? Hard to imagine it is, especially when the last time it was tested, it was against a weak wrestler and it looked AWFUL.

Not to mention, Brenneman is BY FAR the toughest opponent SIlva has faced. it's not even close. Erick hash;t fought anyone close to good yet. Charlie is a huge test in terms of level of opponent and style.

All things considered, I could never bet Silva at -200. Brenneman at +165 seems like the only smart play here. Sure, Charlie could get caught early and lose, but I would;t bet -200 on that chance. I like taking +165 that he won't get blitzed, though.

excellent points man, I hate hearing BS like that, and your right it happens all the time! Stephen Thompson was a prime example.

[Luca Fury]

excellent points man, I hate hearing BS like that, and your right it happens all the time! Stephen Thompson was a prime example.

Yep, Thomson really is the perfect example. Way overhyped, all talk, and a -300 favorite. Then it turns out he sucks and all the talk was a lie.

I've been betting long enough to have been burned by guys who look great vs lower level opposition, then looked awful vs high level fighters. Silva has fought garbage this far and Brenneman is a big test for anyone in the division, let alone a guy who has shown bad cardio and takedown defense.

Erick very well could have improved both deficiencies, and might be able to stuff some takedowns tomorrow. Or, he might just blitz and finish Charlie in 30 seconds. But how can anyone bet -200 on that?

It's the same as Ellenberger vs Kampmann. Jake could only win by KO within 1.5 rounds, and if he didn't, he would gas and get finished. I thought it as crazy people were betting him at -220! Kampmann straight at +175 and inside the distance at +350 were the only ways to go in that fight, IMO. Sure, it's possible Kampmann could get KO'd in one round, but is it worth -220? No way, IMO.

Now we have the same scenario for this fight. If Silva doesn't get a quick KO, he's very likely going to lose. Just like in the Kampmann fight, I'm willing to make bet at a decent plus number that the fighter can last past the early portion of the fight.

Only bet on Silva that I can see making sense here is him winning in round 1 at a good plus number.

[gabe]

poor attempt at sarcasm

it was a solid attempt and it made me laugh

[gabe]

Yep, Thomson really is the perfect example. Way overhyped, all talk, and a -300 favorite. Then it turns out he sucks and all the talk was a lie.

I've been betting long enough to have been burned by guys who look great vs lower level opposition, then looked awful vs high level fighters. Silva has fought garbage this far and Brenneman is a big test for anyone in the division, let alone a guy who has shown bad cardio and takedown defense.

Erick very well could have improved both deficiencies, and might be able to stuff some takedowns tomorrow. Or, he might just blitz and finish Charlie in 30 seconds. But how can anyone bet -200 on that?

It's the same as Ellenberger vs Kampmann. Jake could only win by KO within 1.5 rounds, and if he didn't, he would gas and get finished. I thought it as crazy people were betting him at -220! Kampmann straight at +175 and inside the distance at +350 were the only ways to go in that fight, IMO. Sure, it's possible Kampmann could get KO'd in one round, but is it worth -220? No way, IMO.

Now we have the same scenario for this fight. If Silva doesn't get a quick KO, he's very likely going to lose. Just like in the Kampmann fight, I'm willing to make bet at a decent plus number that the fighter can last past the early portion of the fight.

Only bet on Silva that I can see making sense here is him winning in round 1 at a good plus number.

i agree with everything you've said. when will your podcast be on stitcher?

edit-- nevermind, it's up now! listening

[Imsmarterthanu]

and it made me laugh

That's not saying much

[Luca Fury]

This fight shares a striking resemblance to Diego Brandao vs Darren Elkins at UFC 146.

A flashy, powerful Brazilian who can finish the fight early, but if he doesn't, his opponent -- who is a tough wrestler -- will capitalize on his bad cardio and grind out a clear decision win.

[Imsmarterthanu]

sort of but not really

[bktrembath]

Another for Silva

Agreed. Silva's striking will carry him through.

[Vitooch]

Can't ever assume he's improved. He's fought only 3 times since for a combined 2 minutes against terrible opposition.

Stehpen Thompson supposedly had a great ground game and excellent condition. His trainers and everyone kept saying that, but it was all lies.

Guys say all the time they've worked not heir weaknesses and improved but often times it's all BS. Can;t just take a guy's word for it, I goth see it.

And besides, even if Erick DOES have good takedown defense and cardio now, Brenneman outwrestled great wrestlers in Hendricks, High and Story. Can Silva's takedown defense really be better than those guys'? Hard to imagine it is, especially when the last time it was tested, it was against a weak wrestler and it looked AWFUL.

Not to mention, Brenneman is BY FAR the toughest opponent SIlva has faced. it's not even close. Erick hash;t fought anyone close to good yet. Charlie is a huge test in terms of level of opponent and style.

All things considered, I could never bet Silva at -200. Brenneman at +165 seems like the only smart play here. Sure, Charlie could get caught early and lose, but I would;t bet -200 on that chance. I like taking +165 that he won't get blitzed, though.

Based on your analysis, it seems that Silva's most likely method of winning tomorrow is inside the distance, which I agree with. You don't think there is value in Silva ITD at +125?

[NunyaBidness]

poor attempt at sarcasm

It might also have to do with the fact that Silva will be coming out even hungrier than before given the poor taste in his mouth his last fight left him with. He'll probably leave nothing to chance here, I see Brenneman getting sloppy in his fights all the time, he's going to get into a wild brawl with Silva whether he likes it or not, Silva will clip him

Handicapping intangibles like how 'hungry' someone is seems like a waste of time.

We can argue it 100 different ways.

a) Brennamen will be hungry to prove that his win over Story was no fluke and he can hang with a striker, Anthony Johnson be damned.
b) Silva is going to be overly cautious not wanting to repeat his mistake, thus allowing Brennamen a chance to recover if he clips him.

etc etc etc, its just conjecture.

[NunyaBidness]

Based on your analysis, it seems that Silva's most likely method of winning tomorrow is inside the distance, which I agree with. You don't think there is value in Silva ITD at +125?

way more value in Silva by KO at +250

[gabe]

Nun, who do you like for this card?

[NunyaBidness]

I don't really have much of an opinion on any of the fights honestly. I have action on every fight based on the lines being so badly set. I'll reverse positions if some of the line movements continue though.

I've got
McCall +150
Grice +175
Baczynski EV
Salas +160
Martinez -140
Hecht -115

gonna BTCL across the board, but don't really love any of em.

[Luca Fury]

Based on your analysis, it seems that Silva's most likely method of winning tomorrow is inside the distance, which I agree with. You don't think there is value in Silva ITD at +125?

I on't understand why people think Erick will sub Charlie. He's not gonna sub him from the bottom and he's not gonna get on top via a takedown. Plus, if he hurts Charliie, he'll very likely finish him with strikes, rather than go for the sub. Therefore...

way more value in Silva by KO at +250

...This is the better bet if you want to put money on Silva. Sure there's a chance Silva subs him, but it's very unlikely. The extra 125 you get on the TKO prop make sit worth taking over a general ITD one. Charlei fought a very talented grappler in Daniel Roberts and avoided all his sub/sweep attempts, so I think he can do the same to Erick.

Depending how the night is going, I might hedge with Silva by TKO to cover my Brenneman bet, but as of now, I'm just betting Charlie.

Handicapping intangibles like how 'hungry' someone is seems like a waste of time.

We can argue it 100 different ways.

a) Brennamen will be hungry to prove that his win over Story was no fluke and he can hang with a striker, Anthony Johnson be damned.
b) Silva is going to be overly cautious not wanting to repeat his mistake, thus allowing Brennamen a chance to recover if he clips him.

etc etc etc, its just conjecture.

I can't possible agree with this more. I never understand when people try to analyze this kind of garbage. Like people saying "Rashad knows Jon. He's in his head!" GTFO with that trash!

Sure, there can be situations where personal issues can affect a guy, or maybe he got kicked out of camp -- that kind of stuff DOES matter. But analyzing who "wants it more," or if one guy is scared, or if there are mind games, etc, is just a waste of time, like you said.

[Luca Fury]

I don't really have much of an opinion on any of the fights honestly. I have action on every fight based on the lines being so badly set. I'll reverse positions if some of the line movements continue though.

I've got
McCall +150
Grice +175
Baczynski EV
Salas +160
Martinez -140
Hecht -115

gonna BTCL across the board, but don't really love any of em.

WOW! I'm jelous you got Martinez -140, McCall +150, Grice +175 and Hecht -115. I had to pass on Martinez and Hecht cus they became decent sized favorites. I still bet McCall and Grice at +115 each, but would have definitely liked them at +150 and +175, respectively.

[gabe]

You guys have made me afraid of loving Martinez, Papazian, and Jorgensen so much.

[Luca Fury]

You guys remember how Melvin Guillard had massively improved his submission defense and overall ground game before he fought Lauzon and Miller, right?

Remember how he and all his trainers said how it was no longer a weakness?

Remember how he was training one-on-one with an excellent BJJ coach for 2 hours EVERY day?

Remember how he then got tapped out with a rear naked choke in the first round, twice in a row, and showed a complete lack of knowledge on the ground?

Exactly. Fighters and their trainers say ALL THE TIME that their weaknesses have been fixed and they're improved, yet often times, it's just a bunch of bullsh*t. I never believe the hype that comes out of their mouthes until I actually see it for myself in a fight.

Until Silva goes out and stuffs some takedowns, I won't believe that he has good takedown defense. And until he goes out and fights for 15 minutes and doesn't gas, I won't believe he has good cardio. Sure, Erick has a puncher's chance, but from what we know about both fighters at this point in time, that's all I can say he has.

[Educ8d Degener8]

...
Exactly. Fighters and their trainers say ALL THE TIME that their weaknesses have been fixed and they're improved, yet often times, it's just a bunch of bullsh*t. I never believe the hype that comes out of their mouthes until I actually see it for myself in a fight...

Agree with this.

Though there are occasions where it does bite me in the ass, like when Belcher exhibited that high level sub defense vs Toquinho.

[Luca Fury]

Agree with this.

Though there are occasions where it does bite me in the ass, like when Belcher exhibited that high level sub defense vs Toquinho.

Yep, it happens sometimes. Like Korean Zombie turning out to be as improved as he said he was when he fought Poirier. But for the most part, it's usually lies.

It's one thing to lay the juice on 3-1 favs like Porier or Palhares when you doubt what their opponent is saying, but it's another thing to bet a guy like Brenneman as a 2-1 underdog. Even if Silva IS massively improved or he KO's Charlie early, the bet on Brenneman only required a small risk for a good sized reward, so it's not a big loss.

[zoo youk]

JP, these guys are making some solid points. is this guys take down defense that bad or what? I'm already locked in tailing ya, would just like to hear your response to all this.

[DirtyX]

Yep, Thomson really is the perfect example. Way overhyped, all talk, and a -300 favorite. Then it turns out he sucks and all the talk was a lie.

I've been betting long enough to have been burned by guys who look great vs lower level opposition, then looked awful vs high level fighters. Silva has fought garbage this far and Brenneman is a big test for anyone in the division, let alone a guy who has shown bad cardio and takedown defense.

Erick very well could have improved both deficiencies, and might be able to stuff some takedowns tomorrow. Or, he might just blitz and finish Charlie in 30 seconds. But how can anyone bet -200 on that?

It's the same as Ellenberger vs Kampmann. Jake could only win by KO within 1.5 rounds, and if he didn't, he would gas and get finished. I thought it as crazy people were betting him at -220! Kampmann straight at +175 and inside the distance at +350 were the only ways to go in that fight, IMO. Sure, it's possible Kampmann could get KO'd in one round, but is it worth -220? No way, IMO.

Now we have the same scenario for this fight. If Silva doesn't get a quick KO, he's very likely going to lose. Just like in the Kampmann fight, I'm willing to make bet at a decent plus number that the fighter can last past the early portion of the fight.

Only bet on Silva that I can see making sense here is him winning in round 1 at a good plus number.

I know Brenneman's mma wrestling is some of the best, but Silva isn't exactly a slouch on the ground. I think even if Benneman gets him down, Silva will be going for sub attempts and sweeps off his back the whole time. I just don't see Charlie being able to hold him down for three rounds for the decision, as that is the only way I see Brenneman winning. I highly doubt Brenneman KOs Silva. Eventually, at some point in the fight I think he will be forced to stand and trade, and Silva will outclass him on the feet. Maybe I am just forgetting something, but what makes you question Silva's cardio? I honestly don't recall the Prater fight too well, I just remember Silva got DQed.
PS:

I have been trying to find footage of Silva (besides his last fight) but I cannot find anything. Does anyone have a link?

[NunyaBidness]

PS:

I have been trying to find footage of Silva (besides his last) but I cannot find anything. Does anyone have a link?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ag6jdJoY0Bg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQXdU0wTstk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgIjLn78pkg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0mUthG9TP4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwMthy3YcD0

[Imsmarterthanu]

I've got Jorgenson + Tim Means + Eric Silva

Then another on Lance Benoist + Neer + Pierce

[Luca Fury]

I know Brenneman's mma wrestling is some of the best, but Silva isn't exactly a slouch on the ground. I think even if Benneman gets him down, Silva will be going for sub attempts and sweeps off his back the whole time. I just don't see Charlie being able to hold him down for three rounds for the decision, as that is the only way I see Brenneman winning. I highly doubt Brenneman KOs Silva. Eventually, at some point in the fight I think he will be forced to stand and trade, and Silva will outclass him on the feet. Maybe I am just forgetting something, but what makes you question Silva's cardio? I honestly don't recall the Prater fight too well, I just remember Silva got DQed.
PS:

I have been trying to find footage of Silva (besides his last fight) but I cannot find anything. Does anyone have a link?

Daniel Roberts is better a BJJ than Erick and Charlie was able to stifle all of his sub and sweep attempts in a 15 minute ground fight. Also, Silva fades badly, so it will be even easier for Brenneman to avoid his subs the longer the fight goes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ag6jdJoY0Bg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQXdU0wTstk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgIjLn78pkg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0mUthG9TP4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwMthy3YcD0

You're missing BY FAR the most important Erick Silva fight.

Part 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VEIhewc-FE

Part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F92I9AhkMVE

Watch that, and everyone will understand why I bet Brenneman. This is his 4th most recent fight (more recent than those), and since then, he's only fought for a combined 2 minutes. Here, he showed poor takedown defense vs a guy who is not even good wrestler, let alone on Brenneman's level, as well as terrible cardio. Sure, he got a sweep at one point, but the guy he was facing doesn't have the base Charlie does, and even when he got to mount from it, Erik couldn't do anything with it.

That is the single most important fight of Silva's for tape study relating to the fight tomorrow.