WannaBetUFC's Play of the Week #3

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Here it is boys:

[Vaughany]

haha big pimpin

[The HOFF]

The Pimp Chalice is awesome. And alpha... very alpha.

[Vitooch]

So alpha

[gabe]

Over/Under on WannaBet's age: 20.5

I take the under.

[Imsmarterthanu]

Over/Under on WannaBet's age: 20.5

I take the under.

He said he was 12 years old already, his balls haven't dropped yet either , you can tell from his sexually confused voice he's still a virgin. He's your typical run of the mill wanker

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Over/Under on WannaBet's age: 20.5

I take the under.

"Taaake daaa ooooover" *bong hit*

[sirchadwick1]

Dude, are you reading off your laptop or teleprompter or something? Is that why you wear the mask?

Aloe Vera's flashiness is going to own. Deal with it.

[fosho14]

Nice vid man. The fact that aloe-vera will be throwing up triangles in his face all night and pretty much attacking from any position makes me feel very very apprehensive about playing brookins even at +money like he is. GL though

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Dude, are you reading off your laptop or teleprompter or something? Is that why you wear the mask?

Aloe Vera's flashiness is going to own. Deal with it.

Riiiight because newscasters also wear masks to read off screens. Hey maybe that's why Ronny Jason wears his mask?!!1

Ummmm no

[Kaladarus]

Like the play, but doesn't seem you put in as much work in this one. The last pick was like 20 minutes.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Like the play, but doesn't seem you put in as much work in this one. The last pick was like 20 minutes.

My last video was Brandon Lang. This video was John Anthony.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Congrats to Oliveira backers. Do Bronx's sub game proved too lethal for Brookins.

[Luca Fury]

I'm sure Wanna Bet will get some hate since his video series hasn't gone too well in terms of winning bets, but he's a better gambler than they show. No one's ever going to be 100% with bets.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

I'm sure Wanna Bet will get some hate since his video series hasn't gone too well in terms of winning bets, but he's a better gambler than they show. No one's ever going to be 100% with bets.

Thanks Luca.

Judging by the TUF Live Finale thread, it looks like most people had a rough night tonight which is perhaps why I'm getting less hate than usual. It's okay. I stuck my neck out with this pick and choked. I can handle the heat when I'm made to look foolish.

Do Bronx looked good on the feet in the first and threatened Brookins by pinning his arm down when Jonathan took him down, forcing Brookins to box. Oliveira clearly took the first. Then Brookins started to find his range and was boxing Oliveira up. He snapped his head back a few times and started to control the standup. Although Oliveira was landing some nice punches & knees, I liked where the fight was going since Brookins' resiliency to getting tagged is one of his biggest strengths whereas Oliveira tends to wilt when he gets beat up. Regardless, Oliveira completed a nice trip TD against the cage and I knew the end was near with Oliveira in top control. Brookins seemed to escape in slow motion with his neck exposed long enough for Do Bronx to slap on the choke.

The loss is a definite setback but my video plays are up 8 Units collectively. That's the name of the game with steep dog plays.

Anyways, congrats to you for your winning night... The hitman came through for you nicely!

Congrats to Vitooch too. Those were some alpha picks.

[Vitooch]

Thanks bud...

saw your play was Brookins and was concerned (considering how dead on you were on the Korean Zombie)

On to next week

[Luca Fury]

Thanks Luca.

Judging by the TUF Live Finale thread, it looks like most people had a rough night tonight which is perhaps why I'm getting less hate than usual. It's okay. I stuck my neck out with this pick and choked. I can handle the heat when I'm made to look foolish.

Do Bronx looked good on the feet in the first and threatened Brookins by pinning his arm down when Jonathan took him down, forcing Brookins to box. Oliveira clearly took the first. Then Brookins started to find his range and was boxing Oliveira up. He snapped his head back a few times and started to control the standup. Although Oliveira was landing some nice punches & knees, I liked where the fight was going since Brookins' resiliency to getting tagged is one of his biggest strengths whereas Oliveira tends to wilt when he gets beat up. Regardless, Oliveira completed a nice trip TD against the cage and I knew the end was near with Oliveira in top control. Brookins seemed to escape in slow motion with his neck exposed long enough for Do Bronx to slap on the choke.

The loss is a definite setback but my video plays are up 8 Units collectively. That's the name of the game with steep dog plays.

Anyways, congrats to you for your winning night... The hitman came through for you nicely!

Congrats to Vitooch too. Those were some alpha picks.

Exactly. It's all about winning more than you lose, or making up for it with plus money. I went 9-1 in picks (got Iaquinta wrong) and made about the same size profit as when I went 5-7 on a crazy card earlier this year. I almost never, ever get more picks wrong than I get right, but even on the one card where I did this year, I still made a profit with my bets. Gotta love betting on plus money!

I'm still pissed Mike Rio busted that $3,500 parlay, but I made it up soon after with some volume betting in about a week. Best strategy IMO is to parlay the big favs and bet the small ones or underdogs straight. That way, if one of the big favs lose, it's like you bet him at even money because that's what the odds on the parlay were. So even if a -500 gets upset, it's still not a big dent and you can make it back up easy. Way better than if I bet 15k to win 3k on Rio alone.

The only fight I lost on tonight was Iaquinta at -300, but since I parlayed him with Jury, I got -125 odds. So, my bets on Perez and Kampmann more than made up for the loss. Then Kampmann inside the distance at +350 gave an even nice bump. But if I would have lost on Iaquinta straight at -300, it would have been a night where would have about broken even, even though Jury straight would have won a little. Parlaying Al was way better.

This is why I'll never understand why people say parlays are losing bets. As long as you play it safe and only use them to parlay 2 safe guys or at most 3 who are big favs, they're GREAT! Even when they lose, you lose less than if you bet both big favs individually. They're a huge help.

[bjpenn85]

Big fav in parlays and underdogs SU is the shit! Totally agreeing with everything you guys said now.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Best strategy IMO is to parlay the big favs and bet the small ones or underdogs straight.

Agree 100%. Smart risk management.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Also, rewatching the fight, Oliveira still hasn't changed his hyper aggressive grappling style which can be exposed by an elite BJJ practitioner (like Jim Miller did). Do Bronx went for a slam TD into guard while his opponent had a guillotine grip around his neck. That's a huge technical no-no. Too bad Brookins has shake & bake BJJ... He has a few go-to moves and that's it. An elite BJJ practitioner would've tapped him.

This fight drops Brookins' stock more (rudimentary BJJ, still no head movement) than makes me an Oliveira believer at the next level (his BJJ finishing prowess is insane but I see it as a liability at the next level).

[fosho14]

Oliveira is so siiiiiiiiiiick to watch, one of my fav fighters fer sure.

[gabe]

Oliveira vs Holloway would be sick.

[fosho14]

Oliveira vs Holloway would be sick.

ya definitely. Aloe-vera all day in that match up though, Holloway's still got a lot to learn.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Oliveira would whoop that trick. Black belt versus white (OK yellow?) belt. LOL

Not sure the commission would sanction that fight :P

[Luca Fury]

Also, rewatching the fight, Oliveira still hasn't changed his hyper aggressive grappling style which can be exposed by an elite BJJ practitioner (like Jim Miller did). Do Bronx went for a slam TD into guard while his opponent had a guillotine grip around his neck. That's a huge technical no-no. Too bad Brookins has shake & bake BJJ... He has a few go-to moves and that's it. An elite BJJ practitioner would've tapped him.

This fight drops Brookins' stock more (rudimentary BJJ, still no head movement) than makes me an Oliveira believer at the next level (his BJJ finishing prowess is insane but I see it as a liability at the next level).

Yep. Brookins has some of the worst striking at Featherweight, maybe even worse than Rani Yahya, yet he still landed a ton on Oliveira. Charles doesn't tuck his chin, keep his hands high, or setup his striking. He's very reckless.

I love how everyone is talking about how great an Oliveira/Aldo fight would be. Aldo would light him up and make him quit just like Cerrone did.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not hating on him -- he's a great fighter who I love watching -- but his recklessness and defensive liabilities will continue to cost him against elite fighters who can capitalize on their opponent's mistakes. Aldo is one of the best at that, so I'd favor him pretty big over Oliveira.

[bjpenn85]

haha. I know, a bit to early, but max could be the shit in a 5 years time.

[gabe]

I think Max could put Charlie away on the feet. I would love to get him at +400 in that scrap. Would like my chances, too. As long as he keeps it standing, he would win, I believe. More durable than Charlie.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

I think Max could put Charlie away on the feet. I would love to get him at +400 in that scrap. Would like my chances, too. As long as he keeps it standing, he would win, I believe. More durable than Charlie.

I dunno. Holloway decisions everybody. He does throw nice body shots which was what made Oliveira turtle up vs Cerrone but I question whether his power is on the same level.

Also Oliviera is sneaky with his trip TDs and TDs from the clinch. If & when this fight hits the mat it's a wrap.

+400 would be enticing, especially for a systematic dog chaser like myself, but I don't see Max winning this fight other than a body shot from hell. JMO

[gabe]

I dunno. Holloway decisions everybody. He does throw nice body shots which was what made Oliveira turtle up vs Cerrone but I question whether his power is on the same level.

Also Oliviera is sneaky with his trip TDs and TDs from the clinch. If & when this fight hits the mat it's a wrap.

+400 would be enticing, especially for a systematic dog chaser like myself, but I don't see Max winning this fight other than a body shot from hell. JMO

Body shot, head kick, whatever... I could see Charlie going lights out... Max needs to start being a finisher, though. Needs that killer instinct. He had so many opportunities to finish that fight.

[Luca Fury]

Body shot, head kick, whatever... I could see Charlie going lights out... Max needs to start being a finisher, though. Needs that killer instinct. He had so many opportunities to finish that fight.

Holloway couldn't even finish Schilling because he was deathly afraid to follow him to the mat. Oliveira is 100x better than Pat at BJJ, so why would Holloway follow him down if he drops him? Oliveira hasn't shown any chin issues and Holloway hasn't shown much power, so I highly doubt Max would get in a situation where he flat out KOs him standing and does;t need to follow him down to finish.

[gabe]

Holloway couldn't even finish Schilling because he was deathly afraid to follow him to the mat. Oliveira is 100x better than Pat at BJJ, so why would Holloway follow him down if he drops him? Oliveira hasn't shown any chin issues and Holloway hasn't shown much power, so I highly doubt Max would get in a situation where he flat out KOs him standing and does;t need to follow him down to finish.

Max isn't the type of striker who can knock an opponent out without having to follow him to the ground? WTF? You say some crazy shit sometimes, man. A kick, knee, or uppercut could send Oliveira to the mat a la Ellenberger last night. No need for any follow up shots. It's ridiculous for you to rule that out with a fighter like Holloway, when it's clear the kid obviously has flash KO abilities.

[Luca Fury]

Max isn't the type of striker who can knock an opponent out without having to follow him to the ground? WTF? You say some crazy shit sometimes, man. A kick, knee, or uppercut could send Oliveira to the mat a la Ellenberger last night. No need for any follow up shots. It's ridiculous for you to rule that out with a fighter like Holloway, when it's clear the kid obviously has flash KO abilities.

I say crazy shit?

Holloway has only ever finished ONE fight. He even fought 5 whole rounds with a guy who has been KO'd 7 times, yet couldn't finish him. Meanwhile, Oliveira has never even been rocked in a fight, and the one time he was finished with strikes, his opponent had to follow him to the ground.

So, we have a guy who seems to have a good chin vs a guy who has very little power. There is absolutely NO evidence to suggest Holloway would KO Oliviera with one strike, without having to follow up.

But hey, stating facts and weighing the likelihood of an outcome based on them + logic = "crazy".......

[fosho14]

I say crazy shit?

Holloway has only ever finished ONE fight. He even fought 5 whole rounds with a guy who has been KO'd 7 times, yet couldn't finish him. Meanwhile, Oliveira has never even been rocked in a fight, and the one time he was finished with strikes, his opponent had to follow him to the ground.

So, we have a guy who seems to have a good chin vs a guy who has very little power. There is absolutely NO evidence to suggest Holloway would KO Oliviera with one strike, without having to follow up.

But hey, stating facts and weighing the likelihood of an outcome based on them + logic = "crazy".......

Cousin gabe, don't know how you can even respond to that. The man makes some very convincing points.

[Crassus]

I say crazy shit?

Holloway has only ever finished ONE fight. He even fought 5 whole rounds with a guy who has been KO'd 7 times, yet couldn't finish him. Meanwhile, Oliveira has never even been rocked in a fight, and the one time he was finished with strikes, his opponent had to follow him to the ground.

So, we have a guy who seems to have a good chin vs a guy who has very little power. There is absolutely NO evidence to suggest Holloway would KO Oliviera with one strike, without having to follow up.

But hey, stating facts and weighing the likelihood of an outcome based on them + logic = "crazy".......

Don't take this guy too seriously, sometimes he's spot on, sometimes he thinks Stefan Struve is mainly a kickboxer.

[gabe]

I say crazy shit?

Holloway has only ever finished ONE fight. He even fought 5 whole rounds with a guy who has been KO'd 7 times, yet couldn't finish him. Meanwhile, Oliveira has never even been rocked in a fight, and the one time he was finished with strikes, his opponent had to follow him to the ground.

So, we have a guy who seems to have a good chin vs a guy who has very little power. There is absolutely NO evidence to suggest Holloway would KO Oliviera with one strike, without having to follow up.

But hey, stating facts and weighing the likelihood of an outcome based on them + logic = "crazy".......

That's the difference between you and me. You don't think a fighter could do something unless he has already done it in a previous fight. I know a fighter can get a flash KO just by seeing his skills. I don't need to see 3 KO's out of his last 5 fights to know the guy can knock someone out easily. If anybody doesn't think Max Holloway can knock someone out a la Pettis vs Lauzon, then I don't care what else you have to say.

I wouldn't say Oliveira has a "good chin" - it's no better than Miguel Torres' chin-- I could totally see a solid kick to the body making Oliveira completely fall to the canvas... again, I had this argument with V before where he said we haven't seen evidence of this, or evidence of that... if you're basing your picks off evidence you've already seen instead of knowing the fighters abilities and potential, then you're just off.