Wanna Bet's *VIDEO* on the Korean Zombie vs Dustin Poirier

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Here's my detailed analysis and recommended betting play for the 5-round headliner at UFC on Fuel 3 between Chan-Sung Jung & Dustin Poirier.

WARNING: LENGTHY ANALYSIS FOR THE PASSIONATE CAPPERS

CLIFF'S NOTES: BETTING PLAY FOR THOSE WITH ADHD

[illmatick]

17 minutes is crackers. We're gonna have to work on your speech rate.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I made it through 30 seconds...your voice sounds too robotic

[Wanna Bet On It?]

17 minutes is crackers. We're gonna have to work on your speech rate.

Well how about you try doing a detailed analysis of two fighters' stylistic intricacies without reading it off a screen and see how easy it is.

Anyways, for those of you who don't care about analysis and just want a betting play, watch part two which is only 3 minutes.

[illmatick]

Well how about you try doing a detailed analysis of two fighters' stylistic intricacies without reading it off a screen and see how easy it is.

Is that a challenge?

I do agree with the play, though. Not as confident in Jung as I was against Hominick, but I've already hit him at 3 different prices.

[illmatick]

I made it through 30 seconds...your voice sounds too robotic

Straight droning on the monotone.

From what I was able to make it through, his analysis was pretty spot on . Props WANNA.

[illmatick]

You and our dear friend Rake should collab sometime: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=GAu3GPN9vQ0

[Vaughany]

Good stuff

[BIGDAY]

Best of luck pal!

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Best of luck pal!

Thanks. One of these days we'll have to do a collabo. That's when I know I've hit it BIG

[DeFactoCrippler]

I made it through 30 seconds...your voice sounds too robotic

Yeah, last time he was real flamboyant and I busted his balls saying he sounded like a giant phag. I think this is just him trying to "butch it up".

[Grabaka]

Im on the zombie too bro. GL and good stuff.

[Mimialex]

Im on the zombie too bro. GL and good stuff.

Hey, sistah) glad to see another girl here!!!
Why KZ??

[Grabaka]

hehehe asshole.

[Vitooch]

Why are you wearing a mask?

[bjpenn85]

very impressive breakdown. very convincing, and i do agree. this is more a 50 50 fight

[gabe]

I wasn't sure which way to go on this fight. I'll tail.

[gabe]

Why are you wearing a mask?

witness protection. or extreme insecurity.

[Imsmarterthanu]

I thought I told you to stop making videos

No One cares about your picks I owned your picks last time and now you have the nerve to come back here and spread your shitty luck on us again ?

No one listen to this guy he's a moron, I didn't even watch the video, I don't even know who you picked, I just don't care because you're stupid.

For reference just look at his previous thread in this section

[Libert1ne]

Great vid man.

Full disclosure: I only watched the 3-4 minute one because A: I probably do have ADHD and B: I find sometimes with long analyses that it sometimes leads to me over-analysing and it can cloud my judgement on the fight a bit.

Having said that I think you're 100% correct that the +EV is on Jung, and I really enjoy your contribution to this board.

xoxo

lib

[Libert1ne]

Hey \*\*\*\*\*\*, just **** off this board. You're not contributing anything meaningful and I just dispelled your primary point.

Kindly GTFO

[Educ8d Degener8]

Vid is full of win if for the mere sake of having Paris St. Germain included...

[bjpenn85]

lol

[Vitooch]

Completely disagree with Zombie breakdown. Poirier has proven to be far more consistent in all facets of his MMA game than the Korean Zombie. Yes, he did KO Hominick , but I blame Hominick more than I credit the Zombie for his overly agressive, almost amateur attempt to overwhelm Zombie early in the fight. He gave Zombie no respect and paid for it. Also, he has not shown up mentally for a fight since Shawn Tompkins died. Before that fight, Zombie dropped two of three fights, one of them being a vicious head kick KO loss against Roop.

Poirier may not have KOed anyone of late, but he has shown very sharp, technical, boxing, including a great chin. I will take consistency over Zombie's often times wild, unpredictable style. As far as wrestling is concerned, Zombie hasn't shown much of a dominant wrestling besides the occasional trip takedown against the likes of Lenard Garcia. Poirier has found mostly success in the wrestling department. It is a major strength of his very well-rounded game while the Zombie seems to use his wrestling only if the matchup absolutely calls for it (a plan B of sorts). I can't see Zombie consistently stuffing Poirier's takedowns, no one has, and Zombie isnt known for his TDD.

When Poirier does get on top, he has very strong GnP, which setups up his badass submission game (Just look at his last few fights). I don't think Zombie's boxing is up to par with Poirier, and I don't think his BJJ game off his back is nearly as good to stop Poirier relentless and technical top game.

[Luca Fury]

Completely disagree with Zombie breakdown. Poirier has proven to be far more consistent in all facets of his MMA game than the Korean Zombie. Yes, he did KO Hominick , but I blame Hominick more than I credit the Zombie for his overly agressive, almost amateur attempt to overwhelm Zombie early in the fight. He gave Zombie no respect and paid for it. Also, he has not shown up mentally for a fight since Shawn Tompkins died. Before that fight, Zombie dropped two of three fights, one of them being a vicious head kick KO loss against Roop.

Poirier may not have KOed anyone of late, but he has shown very sharp, technical, boxing, including a great chin. I will take consistency over Zombie's often times wild, unpredictable style. As far as wrestling is concerned, Zombie hasn't shown much of a dominant wrestling besides the occasional trip takedown against the likes of Lenard Garcia. Poirier has found mostly success in the wrestling department. It is a major strength of his very well-rounded game while the Zombie seems to use his wrestling only if the matchup absolutely calls for it (a plan B of sorts). I can't see Zombie consistently stuffing Poirier's takedowns, no one has, and Zombie isnt known for his TDD.

When Poirier does get on top, he has very strong GnP, which setups up his badass submission game (Just look at his last few fights). I don't think Zombie's boxing is up to par with Poirier, and I don't think his BJJ game off his back is nearly as good to stop Poirier relentless and technical top game.

This actually makes sense, unlike the video. You're objective, whereas the other dude just downplayed all of Poirier's strengths, while hyping up all of KZ's skills.

KZ's best win besides the one over glass jawed Hominick is Leonard Garcia. Roop's range and length gave him fits, so why won't Dustin's?

And who has Roop ever knockdown, let alone KO'd? That, plus Garcia dropping him makes KZ's jaw suspect.

[GigaOuts]

I didn't tail but FWIW I maximum bet $500 on the Zombie @ +285 when the line open early. I like the Korean Zombie, he save my ass big time when I was down 2.5g after losing a $1600 split decision on the Yves Jabouin vs Walel Watson fight. Every prelim fight when badly on UFC 140, than my friends said the Zombie is +500, he want to bet $10 on it. I said good pick, when downstair to my computer to put $210 more on the zombie to chase my lost, now $500 total. Came upstair to watch the fight, saw the Zombie on the fence celebrating. I though I was watching the Zombie highlight...lol, didn't know it was live celerbration until I watch the replay. The fastest 2.1g+ I ever made in my life....lol. Zombie all the way!!!!!

I am not saying the Zombie will win for sure but I believe it is a very even fights. I am not impress with Poirier either, I think he is a younger version of GSP. I true mma fighter take advantage of 1 dimensional fighter, like GSP, he will take you where you are weak. This is the first time I believe Poirier fight another true mma figher.

GSP never face a true mma fighter, BJ Penn was closed but he give up 20lbs+. He finally face a true mma fighter Carlos Condit, I was so happy I put down 4g on Condit over GSP. I was so pissed when he dodge Condit twice.

[Vaughany]

Vid is full of win if for the mere sake of having Paris St. Germain included...

The soccer team?! or is tht the music in the background?! Wondered what the music was!

[Vaughany]

This actually makes sense, unlike the video. You're objective, whereas the other dude just downplayed all of Poirier's strengths, while hyping up all of KZ's skills.

KZ's best win besides the one over glass jawed Hominick is Leonard Garcia. Roop's range and length gave him fits, so why won't Dustin's?

And who has Roop ever knockdown, let alone KO'd? That, plus Garcia dropping him makes KZ's jaw suspect.

Guess one could argue tht Roop did finish Grispi which Poirier failed to do!

[Vaughany]

Completely disagree with Zombie breakdown. Poirier has proven to be far more consistent in all facets of his MMA game than the Korean Zombie. Yes, he did KO Hominick , but I blame Hominick more than I credit the Zombie for his overly agressive, almost amateur attempt to overwhelm Zombie early in the fight. He gave Zombie no respect and paid for it. Also, he has not shown up mentally for a fight since Shawn Tompkins died. Before that fight, Zombie dropped two of three fights, one of them being a vicious head kick KO loss against Roop.

Poirier may not have KOed anyone of late, but he has shown very sharp, technical, boxing, including a great chin. I will take consistency over Zombie's often times wild, unpredictable style. As far as wrestling is concerned, Zombie hasn't shown much of a dominant wrestling besides the occasional trip takedown against the likes of Lenard Garcia. Poirier has found mostly success in the wrestling department. It is a major strength of his very well-rounded game while the Zombie seems to use his wrestling only if the matchup absolutely calls for it (a plan B of sorts). I can't see Zombie consistently stuffing Poirier's takedowns, no one has, and Zombie isnt known for his TDD.

When Poirier does get on top, he has very strong GnP, which setups up his badass submission game (Just look at his last few fights). I don't think Zombie's boxing is up to par with Poirier, and I don't think his BJJ game off his back is nearly as good to stop Poirier relentless and technical top game.

Bare in mind the Roop KO was during KZ's wild days. He doesnt fight as dumb as used to

[Wanna Bet On It?]

The soccer team?! or is tht the music in the background?! Wondered what the music was!

It's "St Germain". Not sure where the Paris came from... I think that's a soccer team as you said.

Check out Tourist. Excellent nouveaux jazz.

[Imsmarterthanu]

OP's previous fail video

http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma-ufc-betting/1705938-wanna-bets-play-week-video.html

[Luca Fury]

Guess one could argue tht Roop did finish Grispi which Poirier failed to do!

Not finishing a guy >>> Getting one strike KO'd by a guy who's never knocked anyone down previously.

[Vitooch]

Poirier may not have a KO on his record to tout, but he is consistently outclassed all of his opponents in the UFC, including Grispi (despite the fact that he didnt finish him). I cannot say the same for the Zombie.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Poirier may not have a KO on his record to tout, but he is consistently outclassed all of his opponents in the UFC, including Grispi (despite the fact that he didnt finish him). I cannot say the same for the Zombie.

LOL. That still doesn't address the fact that all of his opponents have been one-dimensional.

Grispi has terrible stand up. Garza has terrible TDD. Young & Holloway have weak ground games. He worked Grispi on the feet. He worked Young, Holloway & Garza on the ground. Bravo.

He was getting worked by Grispi on the ground, Young (and arguably Holloway) on the feet. He got worked by Castillo in the WEC. Sure Castillo is 10 pounds heavier and Poirier was pretty green, but Danny isn't a world beater at 155 - he's a middle tier talent at best. I'll cut Dustin some slack for that loss but Poirier's looked great because he's been opportunistic about taking/keeping the fight to where he wants when he's in trouble against one-dimensional guys.

When he fights someone who's as skilled a counter-striker on the feet as KZ 2.0 has shown and has very good TDD fundamentals, good scrambling, aggressive GnP & unconventional submissions, it means Poirier better finish the fight early because his workrate drops off precipitously and KZ will have the distinct cardio advantage as this fight goes into the third round and beyond.

This isn't a linear stylistic matchup. You have to tease out a lot of impressions from limited footage of two young fighters who grow considerably between fights. But I think KZ has matured more than Dustin has in the past year or so and the shock factor that oblivious bettors (read: drones who can't project fighters' growth & stylistic matchups and then just blame shit on their fighter crapping the bed) will be saying "holy shit, I didn't know he could do that" will more likely be said about Chan-Sung Jung, who only has footage of a brief KO to show for his improvements at KTT/TAM over the past year.

Poirier is a highly skilled FW. I've given him his props in my video. But he doesn't beat the KZ 75%+ of the time in a 5 round fight.

Does Dustin win this 50% or slightly more? Probably... But only ignorant "gurus" bet "winners" at -325 while disregarding the probability of it being a close to 50/50 5-round fight versus at least a 75/25 split as the odds suggest.

[Luca Fury]

LOL. That still doesn't address the fact that all of his opponents have been one-dimensional.

Grispi has terrible stand up. Garza has terrible TDD. Young & Holloway have weak ground games. He worked Grispi on the feet. He worked Young, Holloway & Garza on the ground. Bravo.

He was getting worked by Grispi on the ground, Young (and arguably Holloway) on the feet. He got worked by Castillo in the WEC. Sure Castillo is 10 pounds heavier and Poirier was pretty green, but Danny isn't a world beater at 155 - he's a middle tier talent at best. I'll cut Dustin some slack for that loss but Poirier's looked great because he's been opportunistic about taking/keeping the fight to where he wants when he's in trouble against one-dimensional guys.

When he fights someone who's as skilled a counter-striker on the feet as KZ 2.0 has shown and has very good TDD fundamentals, good scrambling, aggressive GnP & unconventional submissions, it means Poirier better finish the fight early because his workrate drops off precipitously and KZ will have the distinct cardio advantage as this fight goes into the third round and beyond.

This isn't a linear stylistic matchup. You have to tease out a lot of impressions from limited footage of two young fighters who grow considerably between fights. But I think KZ has matured more than Dustin has in the past year or so and the shock factor that oblivious bettors (read: drones who can't project fighters' growth & stylistic matchups and then just blame shit on their fighter crapping the bed) will be saying "holy shit, I didn't know he could do that" will more likely be said about Chan-Sung Jung, who only has footage of a brief KO to show for his improvements at KTT/TAM over the past year.

Poirier is a highly skilled FW. I've given him his props in my video. But he doesn't beat the KZ 75%+ of the time in a 5 round fight.

Does Dustin win this 50% or slightly more? Probably... But only ignorant "gurus" bet "winners" at -325 while disregarding the probability of it being a close to 50/50 5-round fight versus at least a 75/25 split as the odds suggest.

But Leonard Garcia, Geoorge Roop and Mark Hominick are NOT one dimensional?

Garcia is a brawler and nothing more. Sure, he has a BJJ black belt, but he never, ever uses it and has no wrestling.

Roop is a mediocre striker with a glass jaw and no ground game or wrestling.

Hominick is a striker with a glass jaw who has an alright guard and no wrestling.


So, Zombie's opponents have all be just as one-dimensional as Potier's. Not to mention, KZ doesn't have a particularly good guard, so Porier can ground and pound him if need be, nor does he have good wrestling. He's a sloppy striker with decent top-position grappling.

Just like in his other fights, Poirier will dictate where the fight takes place because he's the superior wrestler. He's also the better technical striker with better range and a much better chin. KZ will either be outstruck or ground n pounded.

I love this "Korean Zombie 2.0" talk. Yeah, he went out and TKO'd Hominick in 7 seconds with a counter punch and now he's suddenly some cerebral fighter with amazing counter-boxing ability. Right.