So far the dogs, Strauss and Marx look tempting.
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So far the dogs, Strauss and Marx look tempting. -
Why do marx look tempting, villa or warren couldnt take galvao down, why should marx?Comment -
IIRC, Villa got Galvao down but didn't want anything to do with his guard and let him back up. I think Marx is more of a grinder than the other two who fancy themselves as strikers.Comment -
I really wanted Straus at +145... darn, will probably be at evens by the time it hits 5d.Comment -
A parlay of all three favorites should be good (zaromskis being the third, eh on Petruzelli)
Basically I'd say just do two parlays switching Marx and Galvao (those being the big question) and I'd think you'll be solid. Honestly I'm with Galvao over Marx though.Comment -
Numbers are hard.Comment -
Anybody use Betonline? Has tht only jus recently appeared on bestfightodds? They've got better odds for every line than BMComment -
If Sandro and Zaromskis are 100%, then you should be max parlaying them with everything your books allow you to.
Being that we live on Earth, and it's not 100% the numbers are actually like this:
Parlay A of Sandro/Zaromskis: 1u to win 1.08u
Parlay B of Sandro/Zaromskis/Marx: 1u to win 5.67u MINUS 1u you've lost on parlay C
Parlay C of Sandro/Zaromskis/Galvao: 1u to win 1.83u MINUS 1u you've lost on parlay B
Let's assume parlay A wins 50% of the time to make it easy and still offering a +EV bet with an edge of 4%.
Let's normalize the parlays, instead of betting 1u on each, we'll bet an amount to win the same regardless of which wins. So in this case, 1u to win 5.67u on B and 2.35u to win 4.3u on C. When we subtract the cost of C from the win price of B, and vice-versa, we show we are making the effective bet of risking 3.35u to win 3.3u on a parlay of Sandro/Zaromskis.
We had the opportunity to make a +108 bet and now have a -EV -101 bet on exact same outcome.
Instead, double your bet on Parlay A.Comment -
Avoid. They were actively courting poker players a few months ago, lots of people have had accounts frozen and much difficulty getting payouts. Look in the industry forum.
I should say, I have no personal experience with them, just what I've read on the poker forum I frequent. People there are very unhappy.Last edited by NunyaBidness; 05-09-12, 01:32 PM.Comment -
I should say, that you shouldn't even have to get into the numbers at all to understand that. If you don't understand that betting both sides of a parlay involves paying juice on both sides then you don't understand what parlays are and probably shouldn't bet them until you do.
A parlay is not magic, you are simply telling the book, "hey, if event A wins, take my bet and all of its winnings and bet that on event B" etc. . . If you find yourself hedging big parlays when you get to the last leg, you have made a fundamental mistake.Comment -
Interesting, looking at it from that it's pretty clear I was in the wrong on that one, not sure why that wasn't computing for a bit there. Disregard advice on those parlays then haha.
Yeah I get that, it just wasn't computing for a bit there in my head. Exams are killing me lol.Comment -
Value's definitely with Straus and Marx IMO.
Both of them can grind out decisionsComment -
Jackson's camp prepared Marx very well for that fight. I hadn't seen much of Marx before his Bellator debut, but I was very much impressed by his composure and maturity.
Galvao is a good fighter, but against an experienced wrestler who will surely be prepared with a strong gameplan, this could be a solid dog play. Now that Strauss is moving down I don't really love any plays as of now. Still gotta look into the other fighters. Btw, I don't think big favorites-only parlays works out.Comment -
Sandro has a lot of flaws, and his style leads to openings.
Straus could easily press him up against the cage and dirty box/takedown for 2/3 roundsComment -
5 units on Straus @ +125
5 units on Marx @ +230Comment -
Strauss jumped off the page at me. I don't think Marx can implement his gameplan on Galvao but im not gonna lay the # on Galvao either.Comment -
I like Marrero over Petruzelli.
Marrero has NEVER been knocked out. I think Petruzelli's overrated.Comment -
$100 on Michael Chiesa @ +240 - not too confidence but virtual 9-0, why not due to good odd.
$100 on James Vick @ +175 I like this kid, he have good composure.
$100 on Daniel Straus @ +140 - not too confidence, what a athlete but can't finished fight for some reason.
$200 on Travis Marx @ +240 - more of a piss off bet, I cap him -140 last fight and oddmaker give me +400. I only bet $70 thinking I might miss something on my analysis. Never ever have my cap is so off compare to oddmaker, something doesn't smell right.
$100 on Carmelo Marrero @ -110 - Carmelo just need to survive 1st round.
up 15g+ since Nov, 2011
best bet ever:
$1000 on Carlos Condit vs Nick Diaz @ +160
$2500 on Carlos Condit vs Nick Diaz @ +186
$250 parlay on Carlos condit vs Nick Diaz and Dustin Poirier vs Max Holloway @ +231
worse bet ever:
$400 on Phil Davis vs Rashad Evans @ +140
$1200+ on Phil Davis vs Rashad Evans @ +145 - bet my whole balance, was so sure....haha
$1000 on Phil Davis vs Rashad Evans @ +175 - deposit more, almost 2g more but couldn't pull the trigger and settle on 1g.
biggest future bet ever:
$500 on Stefan Struve vs Mark Hunt @ -110
$1000 on Stefan Struve vs Mark Hunt @ -105
$2000 on Stefan Struve vs Mark Hunt @ +100
Stefan Struve @ +110, almost pull the trigger for another $2500. Going this big, the chances of going ruin it too much to deal with.
Best event ever: Condit vs Diaz - $5700+
2rd best event: Diaz vs Miller - $3800+, could have been 6g+ but arb out 1/2 my bets on Diaz, Johnson,& Hendricks.
3rd best event: Gustafsson vs Silva - $2800+Last edited by GigaOuts; 05-10-12, 01:47 PM.Comment -
You should start your own thread. Would love to follow your thoughts.
On another note:
I think Hunt is an AWFUL match up for Struve. I don't think Struve can take him down. Nor do I think he will be able to avoid the BIG SHOTS for 3 rounds. The only thing Struve has is reach. I would rethink "going big" on that fight.Comment -
I agree. Struve is very hittable, even when he wins he gets busted up for the majority of the fight. Thats pretty dangerous against Hunt.
Hunt is a natural and he has done amazing in the past with very little training. Right now he looks to be taking things serious for the first time n his career and looking great. He always been hard to tumble down and for a guy with Struve height its gonna be really hard to take Hunt down.
Im going BIG on Hunt.
Already have him at +110 and on plenty parlays and adding more to Hunt by Ko.Comment -
I agree with Calculator and Grabaka. I think Hunt will be able to keep this on the feet and KO struve. Struve has never impressed me, and when he wins it's usually a come from behind victory against less than stellar opposition.Comment -
Came to the feed late. Spiritwolf came in at 172.x, no comment was made about him being over, anybody know anything? Is it catchweight?Comment -
I don't like to post too much on my pick, because I constantly have second though after respectful poster go against my pick. Once in doubt I always arb back 1/2 my bet which cost me $$$. Good thing I don't arb out 100%, I put too much time and effort to analysis a fight to arb out 100% to guaranteen me a small profit. I still regrettably thinking about my $1600 bet on Nate Diaz for $3100 profit in that fight, I arb down to $600 for $1450+ profit @ +250.
I do think Hunt is an AWFUL match up for Struve....lol. but bad matchup for Hunt not Struve. I cap Stefan Struve @ -140. In mma you dealing with so much variable, it is hard to fathom all the variable and understand how it effect each other.
Saying Struve doesn't impressive you, and he is very hittable and Hunt have ko power on both hands make Hunt a lock bet is very short sighted. Even just analysing hunt ko, there is different type of ko. The Hendricks ko on Fitch is vastly different than Hung ko on Kongo.
Stefan Struve Octogon IQ vastly improve over his last 2 losts, kid learn from his mistakes. He easily the top 3 in my ranking, so for sure in my mind he beat anyone especially a 38yr old Hunt who does NOT have 1 punch ko power. Hunt literally have to fight a perfect fight to win, even if he knock down Stefan Struve he have to give Stefan the groundgame some respect and let Struve time to recover. Stefan Struve is not Cheick Kongo, he will not turn away after he got tag, he will have his hand up like Vaughan Lee against Kid Yamamoto. Stefan Struve is a smart fighter, he will not slug it out with you after his last 2 lost. He lets you dictate the fight, let you go on offense on him and play possum good solid defense. If you refuse to go on offense, than he turn on the heat and go on offense BUT (hope) will not reckless charging forward like that fight vs Travis Browne. Kid have solid defense, it won't be that easy for Hunt to get inside. Just like last 2 fight, Stefan Struve will starts slow (feel out process) likely give away first round, than he will pick his spot to turn on. He wait patiently for his opponent to gass or hurt, he have the tools to pour it on, on the feet or on the ground.Last edited by GigaOuts; 05-11-12, 01:17 AM.Comment -
Weighin part 1:
Weighin part 2:
Still very happy with my bets. Considering playing Petruzelli @ +odds, will probably not touch the rest of the card. Zaromskis might be good parlay material.Comment -
Also lol @ the ice-cream theft prior to the Marerro/Petruzelli staredownComment -
Is the Bellator 68 fight on Friday night or Saturday night? Jimmy keep saying Saturday night.Comment -
i dont know, but bellator boss said at mma hour that they have chosen fridays as event day. very unlikely saturday.Comment -
bellator def on fridaysComment
