BJPENNs thread

[bjpenn85]

UFC 238

3 units on Calvin Kattar @ 1.64 - 1.92 unit
3 units on Moraes @ 1.80 - 2.4 unit
3 units on Bevon Lewis @ 1.45 - 1.35 unit
3 units on Pet Yan @ 1.36 - 1.08 unit
1 uni on Angela Hill @ 2.70 - 1.7 unit

Ya ya ya whooooaaaaaaa

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7hJ4VzA0Yk

Post fight result: -3 unit
Overall status: +9.77units

Damn, big mistakes done here. Lewis is scared like crazy after getting Koed last fight, and for fakk sake, never bet against an olympic champ, they have experience, they know what to do to win. Its not possible to calculate the experience and performance yield a long life in service to do one thing: Winning.

Congrats to all Cejudo backers who understood initially, even before the TJ fight, that you dont fakk around with Cejudo.

Shame on me.

[bjpenn85]

Moicano vs KZ

4 units on Lineker @ 1.53 to win - 2.12 units
3.5 units on Moicano @ 1.65 to win - 2.27 units
Canceled Barbarena ( fighters so damn scared the fight after a KO loss)
Canceled Rob Font ( hes loosing every round of this fight)

Thats it, ciao mf.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Let's go Lineker!

[Enfuego]

Moicano vs KZ

4 units on Lineker @ 1.53 to win - 2.12 units
3.5 units on Moicano @ 1.65 to win - 2.27 units
Canceled Barbarena ( fighters so damn scared the fight after a KO loss)
Canceled Rob Font ( hes loosing every round of this fight)

Thats it, ciao mf.

How do you cancel your plays BJ?

[bjpenn85]

How do you cancel your plays BJ?

Enfuego, recently i got kicked out of a european site which allowed to cancel bets at any time before the fight took place.

Now a days i usually are on the opening odds for a given fighter i choose to bet on, but as i get closer to fight time, i sometimes change my mind. Since the odds usually change in my favour i buy back on the other fighter with a small margin in + or - This round i took a small loss as i made a mistake and bought Rob font predicting that the fight would be even at fight time. Luckily i soon understood that the betting public absolutely hate Rob Font in this matchup and i bought back Lineker at an ok price and eventually ended up siding with the betting public with a large bet on Lineker, which i think is the correct side.

To make my predictions short. I dont think Rob Font has changed much, but i dont think Lineker has changed much either, but thats why i also dont think the result will differ much. One will need to do something out of the ordinary to upset Linekers game. Sandhagens got a spectacular game, same with Tj dillashaw. But font although i favoured him bigtime against Pettis, his ceiling stops here. If youre going to beat Lineker you need to take him down, or jab him to death, even then its very hard to win. You can take him down like TJ did, but TJ has such a well developed ground game, i struggle to see Rob Font have the wrestling to continuously replicate this scenario. Because youre not winning against lineker playing the outside game either.

Font may surprise us all, but my money is on the likely event of both fighters look like themselves.

[bjpenn85]

Let's go Lineker!

The Brazilian midget still got hands of stone!!

[bjpenn85]

Todays card: 5 units rockhold 1.53. 5 units sadong 1.50. 5 units chiesa 1.30. 5 units chiesa handicap 1.47

[bjpenn85]

Also hedge blch. TKO 5.50

[Hugo de Naranja]

Todays card: 5 units rockhold 1.53. 5 units sadong 1.50. 5 units chiesa 1.30. 5 units chiesa handicap 1.47

Chiesa bets a bit dangerous but I think he wins. I like the Rockhold and Yadong bets! Best of luck.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Also hedge blch. TKO 5.50

Smart move. How much on the hedge?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Pay this man! Smart betting and a smart hedge

[bjpenn85]

Moicano vs KZ

4 units on Lineker @ 1.53 to win - 2.12 units
3.5 units on Moicano @ 1.65 to win - 2.27 units
Canceled Barbarena ( fighters so damn scared the fight after a KO loss)
Canceled Rob Font ( hes loosing every round of this fight)

Thats it, ciao mf.

Moicano vs KZ

Last last weekends cards: 3.5 units

Total: +6.47units

[bjpenn85]

5 units Luke Rockhold 1.53
5 units Sadong 1.50
5 units Chiesa ML 1.30
5 units Chieasa handicap 1.47
Blachowiz TKO to win back 3 units 5.75



UFC 239 result= +7 units
Total = +13.27 units

[bjpenn85]

UFC ON ESPN+ 13

4 units Germaine De Randamie @ 2.3 to win - 5.2 units

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC ON ESPN+ 13

4 units Germaine De Randamie @ 2.3 to win - 5.2 units

Tell me more about this one

[bjpenn85]

Tell me more about this one

I feel like Aspen Ladd will struggle to take down Germaine. I might be wrong, but i wasnt too impressed with Ladd in her last outing, she easily could have lost if the judges followed the score criteria. But i as i said, i might be wrong here, i have not been able to research lately,so no livebetting and only half ass pre-bets. I will replay Aspen Ladd and Germaine one more time tomorrow and have a definite opinion i think.

What do you think for this cards?

[Hugo de Naranja]

I feel like Aspen Ladd will struggle to take down Germaine. I might be wrong, but i wasnt too impressed with Ladd in her last outing, she easily could have lost if the judges followed the score criteria. But i as i said, i might be wrong here, i have not been able to research lately,so no livebetting and only half ass pre-bets. I will replay Aspen Ladd and Germaine one more time tomorrow and have a definite opinion i think.

What do you think for this cards?

Sounds good. No big bets for me yet. Still deciding on main event.

[bjpenn85]

UFC ON ESPN+ 13

4 units Germaine De Randamie @ 2.3 to win - 5.2 units

Buying out. GDR historically has had bad tdd, but after moving to AKA it has improved, but to which extent? GDR has never faced a good wrestler last 6 years after the transition, and over 25 min 1 takedown is enough for Ladd. Eubanks is a lot better on the ground than GDR so she wasnt submitted, but GDR surely will as Ladd is super aggressive on the ground.

Do i think Ladd wins, no.

Am i willing to bet and sweat? No.

[HurlSweatPants]

5 units Luke Rockhold 1.53
5 units Sadong 1.50
5 units Chiesa ML 1.30
5 units Chieasa handicap 1.47
Blachowiz TKO to win back 3 units 5.75



UFC 239 result= +7 units
Total = +13.27 units

Nice get back on Blach TKO

[Beelzebubzy]

nicely done BJ. I played Jan Round 1 should have played KO instead.

[bjpenn85]

Nice get back on Blach TKO

Thanks my man!

[bjpenn85]

nicely done BJ. I played Jan Round 1 should have played KO instead.

Props in general are super dangerous, but they always cash when used as a hedge, unfortunately. I usually bet MLs and handicaps.

For handicaps i look for size, reach and disparities in level of opposition. Chiesa was a very typical handicap bet.

[bjpenn85]

Germaine De Randamie VS Ladd


8.5 units on Ricky Simon @ 1.36 to win 3.06 units

[Hugo de Naranja]

Germaine De Randamie VS Ladd


8.5 units on Ricky Simon @ 1.36 to win 3.06 units

I like this. Simon is my biggest bet as well.

[bjpenn85]

UFC 241

5 units Cory Sandhagen @ 1.63 to win - 3.15 units
1 unit Nate diaz @ 2.15 to win - 1.15 units

[getlucky2win]

I like this. Simon is my biggest bet as well.

Ricky fckd us hard. I mean wtf

[Hugo de Naranja]

Ricky fckd us hard. I mean wtf

Yeah holy shit haha. Would have never ever picked Faber to TKO him. It was an early stoppage but even so you should not be getting dropped by this version of Faber.

[bjpenn85]

UFC 242

*4 units on Faras Ziam @ 3.0 to win - 8 units
3 units Islam @ 1.42 to win - 1.26
3 units Andrea Lee @ 1.63 to win - 1.9 units
2 units Barboza @ 1.62 to win - 1.24 units




*Subject to hedge/buy out/reduction in bet size etc

[bjpenn85]

Andrade vs Zhang

3 units on Andrade @ 1.60 to win - 1.8 units

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like these. BOL

[bjpenn85]

I like these. BOL

I have spare time, more is coming, sept is also a month with 4 cards!!!!!!!

[bjpenn85]

UFC 242

*1 units on Faras Ziam @ 3.0 to win - 2 units
3 units Islam @ 1.42 to win - 1.26
3 units Andrea Lee @ 1.63 to win - 1.9 units
*0 units Barboza @ 1.62 to win - 1.24 units

* Both bets are more suitable for livebetting than pre-bets.

[bjpenn85]

Cerrone vs Gaethje

3 unit on Vettori @ 1.41 - 1.3 units
1 unit on Smolka @ 1.91 - 0.9 units

[Thrilla]

Clown show stopped posting the total result of his shit. Only dumb motherfukkers don't notice. bjkunt85 shut your fukking mouth in the event threads pls. I don't want you giving people missdirections into wrong bets. Keep your loser's opinion here pls. thx

[bjpenn85]

Clown show stopped posting the total result of his shit. Only dumb motherfukkers don't notice. bjkunt85 shut your fukking mouth in the event threads pls. I don't want you giving people missdirections into wrong bets. Keep your loser's opinion here pls. thx

You need to post bets, man, dont talk, walk. No posting around here if you dont make bets.

Its a forum for bettors.

Make a thread, with bets, and beat me, bet by bet, but no phony statements, only betting actions my man.

Thats it.

Thank you!