Bellator 60

[MMAbetMASTA]

It is a 5.round fight. I meant to win, warren need to win at least 3 out of 5. This fight is easy to predict, curran wins except if he gets KOed.

Warren has terrible defence, and gets rocked in all fights. He lost against galvao, he lost until he koed joe soto, he lost his last fight not surprisingly by KO. He probably loses this one as well by sub or KO. I will stop betting if warren wins 3 rounds

Good insight, I agree with everything...

I'm just really afraid to pay juice / heavy odds after the past couple weeks... Although I really havea hard time seeing pat lose...so I'm very tempted to pay the current -330 that is on my book (no props available, so str8 up is my only option)...

[MMAbetMASTA]

ANyone have video on spoon??????? Or have good insight

I was thinking about betting on straus as my book still has him at decent odds (-175) compared to the mainstream books that have him around -200....

I can't find any real footage on spoon... I've read a few play by plays and he seems to be well rounded. However, the same can be said about straus and he's showed his well rounded skills against much better competition. And while both guys have fought at 155, spoon has also fought at 135 which would lead me to beleive straus is bigger (no way straus makes 135)...

Considering both are wrestlers at base and both appear to be pretty smooth grapplers, I think straus might have a bit of size, no? And while spoon was a high school state chamption, straus seems to have the better high school wrestling and is considered one of ohio's greatest high school wrestlers of all time. Straus also seems to hit really hard, despite not having many tkos. He's hung on the feet against some really solid strikers and seems to developing powerful stand up...

Yet I really haven't seen much of spoon, and while I have read a few thorough play by plays, I am always afraid to play against an undeafeated guy who despite not facing the greatest comp might be a diamond in the rough waiting to shine against great comp (spoon's comp is decent, not a can fest by any means, but I think straus' comp is on a whole diff level).

What are your guys' thoughts on this fight?? Tell me somethign I don't know or that I'm missing here!

[bjpenn85]

I think youre spot on. I didnt see the jason dent fight but result on paper seems like a pretty weak performance. A decision against dent? That result alone would make anyone hesitant. He didnt give freire real competition other than the first round, and that was only because of the wrestling and the takedowns. I wouldnt bet on him, but he should win nevertheless. I rather put money on curran and stay away from most bellator fights in general. Its 50 50 fight all over the place and you never know who wins an edgy decision. the judges seems to be even worse in bellator, and that says a whole lot in these days. A whole lot.

[Vitooch]

Also took Corey at +210 on Bookmaker. Unbelievable that Sportsbook has it at +280, wish I had an account just for that.

So, I'm taking Curran ITD, and all dogs...da Silva, Vargas at +310, Shockley at +190, and Corey

[PunisherIND]

ANyone have video on spoon??????? Or have good insight

I was thinking about betting on straus as my book still has him at decent odds (-175) compared to the mainstream books that have him around -200....

I can't find any real footage on spoon... I've read a few play by plays and he seems to be well rounded. However, the same can be said about straus and he's showed his well rounded skills against much better competition. And while both guys have fought at 155, spoon has also fought at 135 which would lead me to beleive straus is bigger (no way straus makes 135)...

Considering both are wrestlers at base and both appear to be pretty smooth grapplers, I think straus might have a bit of size, no? And while spoon was a high school state chamption, straus seems to have the better high school wrestling and is considered one of ohio's greatest high school wrestlers of all time. Straus also seems to hit really hard, despite not having many tkos. He's hung on the feet against some really solid strikers and seems to developing powerful stand up...

Yet I really haven't seen much of spoon, and while I have read a few thorough play by plays, I am always afraid to play against an undeafeated guy who despite not facing the greatest comp might be a diamond in the rough waiting to shine against great comp (spoon's comp is decent, not a can fest by any means, but I think straus' comp is on a whole diff level).

What are your guys' thoughts on this fight?? Tell me somethign I don't know or that I'm missing here!

i think you are spot on. i think it will be a grapplefest for the most part, which is why i really like the distance prop. but i also think it will be a close fight. straus will have a decent size advantage, but i think spoon may be a little more dynamic. at +160 im going to play spoon, but if you want to play it safe i would go with the distance prop if you can get it. also, fwiw (probably nothing), spoon has a more prominant position on the event poster. lol.

[MMAbetMASTA]

I think youre spot on. I didnt see the jason dent fight but result on paper seems like a pretty weak performance. A decision against dent? That result alone would make anyone hesitant. He didnt give freire real competition other than the first round, and that was only because of the wrestling and the takedowns. I wouldnt bet on him, but he should win nevertheless. I rather put money on curran and stay away from most bellator fights in general. Its 50 50 fight all over the place and you never know who wins an edgy decision. the judges seems to be even worse in bellator, and that says a whole lot in these days. A whole lot.

word I hear you...thanks.

My mind is saying don't bet on him, but my guy is telling me, "he's going to win and then you'll be thinking in hindsight - I TOLD YOU SO!"

I also just want to respond and say that while dent isn't the greatest fighter - he's a game fighter and is legit against anyone - very well rounded and experienced at multiple weight classes. And he's quite durable, I don't know what you're trying to say perhaps I misunderstand you, but outside of Gsot and his retirement he hadn't been finished in a while - 2 finishes in 7 years, only one of them a stoppage via gsot armbar, very durable guy imo.

I can't even find a play by play on that fight - where do you learn from this fight to call in a weak performance? I would love to read a play by play if you can point me in the right direction... thanks for the insight! If it was a weak performance against dent and he lost any round that would scare me...

[ghost kid]

Bellator note: Genair da Silva did not make weight Replaced by Kenny Foster who will take on “PoPo” Bezerra in the Featherweight Tournament.

[MMAbetMASTA]

i think you are spot on. i think it will be a grapplefest for the most part, which is why i really like the distance prop. but i also think it will be a close fight. straus will have a decent size advantage, but i think spoon may be a little more dynamic. at +160 im going to play spoon, but if you want to play it safe i would go with the distance prop if you can get it. also, fwiw (probably nothing), spoon has a more prominant position on the event poster. lol.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]39553[/ATTACH]

Dude I want to play that distance!!! I have yet to see a bellator itd/otd / over-unders on my book site (obviosuly I need to get a new book but the one I have is convienient for personal reasons). Totally agree with you though that distance is the way to go on this fight...

I just want some action and have researched this fight more than any other and at -175 I somewhat like it I guess, mostly that I think straus will have size, striking and clinch advantage (and not by much on all of these). I think their wrestling is even, but size could benefit straus (if not - perhaps a stand up fight?) On paper spoon has legit grappling credentials and is probably better than straus, but against malagarie straus REALLY impressed and showeed some great defensive grappling against a guy who I am assuming is much better in the jitz department than spoon. REALLY torn on this one, perhaps a sign to stay the fuckk away!

[MMAbetMASTA]

Anyone see elkins / p. curran fight???

I know it was a while ago so I'm not taking this fight too seriously at all, but curious if elkins got the W by wrestle fudging pat... On paper elkins is really the only collegiate / post high school wrestler pat has faced...




ALSO, still would love some further opinions and insight on straus / spoon to help my decision making...

[PunisherIND]

****. had bezerra SU and in a bunch of parlays.

[Vitooch]

When do you think they will release line for Popo/Foster?

[MMAbetMASTA]

Travis Wiuff???

Sorry to blow up this thread with constant posts, but i'm in what I like to call the 'research zone' and got lots of things going through my head!!!

Somethign else I'm now interested in...

Wiuff at -200...

Admittedly I know very little of his opponent, but I do know that he has beat cans at MW and is fighting one of the biggest LHWs in the game...

His two decision wins (one of them split) were against one giant can and another suspect can... The fact he couldn't

Does anyone know much about gomez other than his record?

He is a BJJ medalist but the fact he's only subbed one fighter among his less than stellar competition doesn't have me sold (especially when those fighters have very ugly sub .500 records)... He's also coming off of a 21, yes TWENTY ONE month lay off

Wiuff is well rounded outside of a suspect chin... He has no great wins as of late, but hasn't exactly been fighting str8 up cans as of late... He's fought almost every type of fighter in 2 weight classes - a true journeyman who I feel is well rounded enough to beat a guy who won in one semi-prestigious jitz competition... Travis upset in his last fight when everyone was on the m'pumbu train and this just seems like a GIANT GIANT GIANORMOUS step up for gomez, and -200 on wiuff is sounding reasonable...

Thoughts????

[PunisherIND]

i have wiuff in a small parlay. i dont know much about the opponent either, but as you pointed out, all the "intangibles" favor wiuff. wiuff also just beat bellator's LHW champ, so i feel comfortable gambling on him here.

[Beelzebubzy]

I dont trust Wiuffs chin enough to make a plan.

[fosho14]

How does curran lose this fight? It's not beyond the realm of possibility that warren holds him down/grinds out a boring decision like he has to others in the past. Warren is a decorated wrestler with extremely impressive credentials. Is this enough to stay away from taking Curran?

**note I'm aware that curran has better chances than warren, but at -300 to -350 I'm not sure if it's a smart play

[Vitooch]

5Dimes has Curran ITD available. I got it at -111 but it's moved to -168. Warren likes to bumrush his opponent, leaving himself very open to Curran's precise striking. Warren's best chance is winning a scrappy decision. I probably should have not hedged with Warren by decision at +600 but at those odds it can't doesn't to be safe.

I would be very surprised if Curran doesn't tag an overly aggressive Warren coming in or finds himself in dominant top position after a grappling scramble of some sort and submits Warren.

[Vitooch]

Let me also add that Curran is a very defensive, patient striker. When he finds an opening, however, he lands clean, precise strikes that puts his opponents to sleep. We saw what happened to Warren when he threw caution to the wind and didn't respect his opponent's striking enough in his last fight. His chin will be tested again tomorrow against one of the most accurate strikers at 145, and I'm having a tough time seeing Warren not getting hurt very badly if he is his normal, bulldog self. Warren's best chance is avoiding those sniper punches and kicks that Curran so often lands clean, and grinding out a decision with wrestling, but it is unlikely.

[fosho14]

finds himself in dominant top position after a grappling scramble of some sort and submits Warren.

Agree with most of what you said except for the part mentioned above. That is Warren's whole strength, and as much as I agree that curran will certainly have the advantage on the feet, I actually see warren as the one with the advantage on the mat, and warren finding himself with dominant positions in the grappling. At least on paper it makes sense that it would unfold this way, but as we all know stranger things have happened..

[Vitooch]

Warren's wrestling credentials are undeniable. However, I do think Warren has a tendency to try to force takedowns and throws. Look at the first few minutes of his fight with Galvao. Warren attempted two throws in the clinch, and both times Galvao reversed the throw and got Warren's back. A solid grappler like Curran with submission skills will take advantage of Warren's impatience and over aggressiveness in the standup exchanges AS WELL as the grappling.

[bjpenn85]

Youre right. Jason dent is experienced and hard to finish although he loses all fights agains opponents with a name. I havent seen the fight so maybe strauss delivered. However, for me to have confidence in strauss i will need to see finishes. he seems incapable of doing that, thus i will not even think about playing him against an average + fighter.

[Beelzebubzy]

think I may arb out of Curran

nothing pisses me off more than a LNP loss

[sirchadwick1]

I think your safe with Curran. Hes better in all aspects of MMA.

Whats the deal with Wiuff going from -260 to -175? Is everyone fading his chin? I figured he would easily lnp to a victory vs Gomez. Maybe even a gnp stoppage.

[MMAbetMASTA]

How does curran lose this fight? It's not beyond the realm of possibility that warren holds him down/grinds out a boring decision like he has to others in the past. Warren is a decorated wrestler with extremely impressive credentials. Is this enough to stay away from taking Curran?

**note I'm aware that curran has better chances than warren, but at -300 to -350 I'm not sure if it's a smart play

The reason I asked above about elkins / curran is because elkins is really the only collegiate / post high school wrestler curran has faced - and he lost. As this fight was a while ago I'm not taking it too seriously as I'm sure curran has improved a lot since then... But I was really curious if anyone knows the pay by play or has the vid..

Curran stuffed alveraz at will but alvarez never attempted the collegiate world of wrestling. Warren's wrestling looked like sheeiit aagainst galvao and soto, but against pitbull, who I think has probably the best tdd out of all 3 of these guys (well perhaps not galvao), was repeatedly grinded in the 2nd and 3rd round against a supposedly sick warren. In the right moments warren's wrestling is very effective and is definitely a notch above elkins' and alvarez (although he is smaller than both these men).

I really think pat has this, but like someone else said I'd be REALLY pissed off if I lost a grinding lay n' pray fest to warren...especially paying -350ish juice... Overall that has me hesitant - since his recent tear through bellator curran has yet to face a truly accomplished wrestler...

Still might go for it, as of right now I have no plays, but still thinking about taking curran and wiuff, perhaps a small half line play on straus.

[MMAbetMASTA]

I think your safe with Curran. Hes better in all aspects of MMA.

Whats the deal with Wiuff going from -260 to -175? Is everyone fading his chin? I figured he would easily lnp to a victory vs Gomez. Maybe even a gnp stoppage.

both of gomez' tko wins (against sub .500 comp) were ref stoppages from gnp (had the back with hooks in on both guys and pounded away...). A clean shot from anyone might put wiuff down, but looking at his record his ko's were from heavy hitters, undeniably (king mo, lambert, hamman, hague) ... and these guys dropped him standing for the most part.

I was initially worried about him being subbed as gomez' base and strength appears to be jitz and positional ground control, but his last sub lost was 5 years and 25+ fights ago against james lee - a phenomenal grappler of the old breed.

I do think that if wiuff loses he loses by ko, but really, outside of a 2-3 losses on his record, wiuff only loses to pretty solid C+ to A- level competition. Everything I've researched makes wiuff seem like a legit play around the -200 range (especially the 21 month lay off for gomez), but no name guys with close to undefeated records who I haven't seen much footage on have ruined my nights before....

Would love more insight on this fight if anyone has some info....

[Beelzebubzy]

I have 5u at -255 FWIW

If Warren hits +350 i might jump on that

[bjpenn85]

he has hit +350 on 5dimes

[Educ8d Degener8]

McCorkle -1475 at dimes!

[Vitooch]

Why did you bet Curran in the first place if youre having such second thoughts?

[MMAbetMASTA]

great breakdown from BE... really like the emphasis on curran's defense... I think this is the icing on the cake for me to play curran str8 up...

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/3/7/2849426/bellator-60-pat-curran-vs-joe-warren-dissection-featherweight-championship

[Beelzebubzy]

Why did you bet Curran in the first place if youre having such second thoughts?

I grabbed the opener because I thought it was mispriced. Its probably just fight day nerves. 5u is my biggest play of 2012. I very very rarely go this high.

[Vitooch]

Let it roll Beel. We will cash it tonight

[MMAbetMASTA]

alright you SOBs....!!!

I put down a line on curran at -340, thinking about doubling that up too... although if I lost 700 for a second week in a row of heavy losses I'm gonna quit this shiiit.... lol. Still waiting for the wiuff line, not up on my site yet. Also got 85 on straus to win 50, he looked MUCH bigger than spoon at the weigh in although that could def change come fight time.... a lot of you guys sold me on curran, so we best cash this tonight!!! GL curran backers

And yea anyone know what's up with the still dropping line on wiuff???? now around -160... something wrong with him or inside info come out??

[fosho14]

I definitely think curran has the edge. He is more than likely going to win. I would of totally placed a moderate bet on him had I caught the line earlier but its at -400 now. Lets hope warren doesn't lay n pray himself to victory. Good luck to everyone who is on Curran, on paper he should definitely win this fight.

[NunyaBidness]

Kenny Foster's pretty terrible, but I'll take a shot at +700.

[ghost kid]

Weigh In Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvHCBZQereM&feature=youtu.be