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That boy either has mental issues or is on drugs. His brother, also...Comment -
More nonsense. The actual line does not matter but your perceived line (which you said was -190 for Bacsynski) DOES. Obviously, if you felt that Bacsynski was a lock, then your perceived line (not the oddsmakers line) would be much, much higher than -190. If not, then you are cheating yourself out of spotting value and not maximizing your profit potential.
I REPEAT - For the third time...
The LINE is IRRELEVANT to the fighter being a lock. All it is is an ADVANTAGE. NOT A LOCK!!!!! I had Hominick at -750 against Korean Zombie and he opened at -400. Does that mean it was a lock? NO!!! I didn't even touch the -400 juice. He eventually did become -750 by fight time, and Zombie was like +425, so I made a value play on the Zombie.
A lock is a lock when you personally feel 99% confident, for whatever reasons, that your fighter will win the fight.
If Bader was -150 against Ortiz (as opposed to the -650 he was,) you would think he was a lock, and I wouldn't.
Hope everyone gets it now.
I am right. You are wrong.Comment -
7u Pearson -300
good luck all.Comment -
From ESPN insider....
MAIN EVENT: FIVE ROUNDS
Alistair Overeem (minus-150) vs. Brock Lesnar (plus-130)
Heavyweight (265 pounds): With size comes dominance, and both Lesnar and Overeem hold dominion in each of their respective specialties. While Overeem might have won the last K-1 World Grand Prix, the most prestigious kickboxing event in the world, Lesnar holds a much more impressive statistical accomplishment that tilts things (although not the odds) in his favor.
On average, Lesnar lands 4.08 takedowns per 15 minutes. To put that into perspective, St. Pierre, who is considered by many to be the greatest takedown specialist in MMA, averages 4.3 takedowns per 15 minutes. The difference between the two men is about 100 pounds of muscle and Thor-like hammerfists that have historically ended fights from the top position.
The caveat here is Overeem's ability to keep the fight standing, having successfully defended 76 percent of takedowns attempted against him. However, Overeem's past nine opponents have an average takedown per 15 minutes rate of less than one. While the 76 percent defense rate is impressive, it has come against opponents that hardly possess the wrestling ability of Lesnar.
Overeem might have the goods on his feet to take out Lesnar, but he might not be standing for very long, and the bigger they are, the harder they fall. Consider this fight to be one probable takedown away from cashing a ticket worth plus-130.
Insider pick: Brock LesnarComment -
Street Fighers in the UFC, yay.
Observations:
- Player2 has a vicious guillotine from the clinch - there will surely be some pressing against the cage in this fight. Bad for Player1, methinks.
- Player2 has atomic knees. The K1 organization had to change the K1 rules last year to stop Player2's double handed knees in the clinch.
- Player1 doesn't have the experience of the younger Player2, and the size of the former, easily one of his strongest assets, is pretty much matched this time around (266lbs vs 263lbs while also sporting a noticeably leaner physique).
- Player1 has very good takedowns, but a somewhat sloppier gnp follow-up.
- Player2's chin is not great, but Player1 has a more worrisome issue. When seriously hit, he psychologically calls it quits (pain tolerance problem), while his body might still be able to continue.
- At a presser a while back, Player1 explained that one thing he will do differently in this fight is not come out of the blocks as strong (huge mistake in my opinion, pushing the pace and going for an early takedown would be the best course of action to take in order to maximize his chances of winning).
- Player1's demeanor at the weigh-ins doesn't instill confidence in me that he himself thinks he can win.
... based on these factors, I have to say, Sagat handily beats Zangief inside the first three rounds at today's UFC 141.
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Twitter says:
Riddle vs Ramos is off. Riddle is feeling ill...Comment -
so far
0.50u Nunes / Riddle / Volkmann... may get burned by Manny, but needed a degen play to kick off the day...
1.00u Gustafsson / Pearson / Volkmann
looking at Lesnar and Diaz bets, fitch-hendricks straddle, more on Volkmann and Pearson perhaps.Comment -
My plays for 141:
Ticket#:62591337
Dec 30 08:05 PM
INTERNET / -1Dec 30 03:55 AM
MU
STRAIGHT BET
[24334] J VOLKMANN -260
(E ESCUDERO vrs J VOLKMANN)
572 / 220
--------------------------------
Ticket#:62591343
Dec 30 09:05 PM
INTERNET / -1Dec 30 03:57 AM
MU
STRAIGHT BET
[24326] D CASTILLO -175
(A NJOKUANI vrs D CASTILLO)
193 / 110
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Will probably double up on Castillo right before fight time, hoping his line moves in my favor although I don't think it will move at all.
Going to also wait till last minute on an upset play with Vladdy over gustafson
Was gonna take diaz as a small upset play but I think cerrone got this and I have a hard time seeing how cerrone loses the striking match which I think will play out the entire 3 rounds.
Tempted to play fitch, I think hendricks is getting to much credit here but then again fitch hasn't impressed as of late and the new diet and his attitude might work against him.
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Hopefully I don't lose, last strikeforce was a bad night for me and broke a very nice win streak I was on. I hope to bounce back strong! Gl to everyone tonight and enjoy.Comment -
**** sake, Riddle has pulled out of fight with illness. Had guaranteed profit with that one with Riddle at +115! My luck is shocking at moment
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Am I right in thinking that all the FOTN, SOTN and KOTN bets on 5dimes/Sportbet will be voided now that Riddle is off? I think when you bet on one it says "All fight must have action" or something
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yep
Cancelled 12/30/11 6:00pm Props Fighting 12045 11 fights with no submission +575* vs A fight has a submissionComment -
Nuts. I hedged with Diaz with SOTN at +900.
Oh well.Comment -
Fuuuuuuuuuuck, could mess up my hedges big time! In the shiiit if Cerrone/Diaz isnt FOTN nowComment -
adding
1.00u Volkman -230
0.50u Nathan Diaz +225
0.50u Pearson -345, VM-Gustafsson not distance -195
should've known public money would come in on Lesnar on fight day, now not feeling the +120...Comment -
Nunes will probably take tht due to the kicks. Manny needed to keep Nunes on his back for a minute longerComment -
Manny about to take this round...clearly shouldnt of been +250 to +290 dog!Comment -
Nunes' round so farComment -
Nunes....round 1 & 3 IMOComment -
Ha Volkmann showin his "improved stand-up" backstageComment -
Wanna see Christmas look for the darce like he did on CastilloComment -
Volkmann is goin Fitch mode on Escudero!Comment -
Volkmann is fighting like Fitch. LolComment -
zzzzzzz i don't care if this is a boring fight just need Vonn to win
don't do anything stupid Vonn in the 3rd....Comment -
Damn, knew -225 was a gift for Volkmann, only got 6 units on him in a parlayComment -
lol, imagine Volkman gets ko'd after that gift standup by HerbComment -
OMG crazy chokeComment -
Fuucking Volk you idiot lolComment
