Ufc 137

**proposition joe** · 10-09-11, 03:41 AM

I'm on Penn, Palaszewski, and a few prelims that don't have lines yet.

**Vitooch** · 10-09-11, 04:00 AM

Originally posted by proposition joe

I'm on Penn, Palaszewski, and a few prelims that don't have lines yet.

I'm actually really liking Penn in this fight also. I was impressed as hell with him in the fitch fight.

Who saw a vastly undersized Penn take down the collegiate wrestler Fitch and get his back in the opening minutes?

Penn has proven himself against more formidable competition and I expect him to outclass Diaz, whom I still think is a very good fighter.

**Vaughany** · 10-10-11, 09:57 AM

Will be all over Hioki Sub of the Night

**Kaladarus** · 10-10-11, 10:55 AM

I've been going back and forth on the Penn/Diaz fight. I'll probably end up taking one of them by decision. Got to see if any info is available on strategies. If Penn tries a couple of takedowns he can steal some rounds. Penn's boxing style should counter what Diaz brings to the table. Diaz is usually very aggressive and moves forward. Penn has good counter punching to fighters like that. However if Diaz uses in and out movement and utilizes his reach he can pick Penn apart. Usually Diaz is very aggressive though.

As of right now I have no plans for any big plays on this card. I'm just going to wait a bit and see what lines come out closer to October 29.

**Vaughany** · 10-10-11, 11:08 AM

Originally posted by Kaladarus

I've been going back and forth on the Penn/Diaz fight. I'll probably end up taking one of them by decision. Got to see if any info is available on strategies. If Penn tries a couple of takedowns he can steal some rounds. Penn's boxing style should counter what Diaz brings to the table. Diaz is usually very aggressive and moves forward. Penn has good counter punching to fighters like that. However if Diaz uses in and out movement and utilizes his reach he can pick Penn apart. Usually Diaz is very aggressive though.

As of right now I have no plans for any big plays on this card. I'm just going to wait a bit and see what lines come out closer to October 29.

BJ trained with Hughes again, I'm sure he was working on his wrestling. I don't see why the strategy to take Condit down would change with fighting Diaz (if that was his strategy).

**iQon** · 10-10-11, 12:23 PM

Two things:

1) Someone talk me out of paying that juice on Roy Nelson.

2) Some explain to me why Tyson Griffin continues to get these ridiculous lines. Are they basing this off what he was a few years ago, or is Silva just gifting him scrubs every time?

**Kaladarus** · 10-10-11, 12:27 PM

Originally posted by iQon

Two things:

1) Someone talk me out of paying that juice on Roy Nelson.

2) Some explain to me why Tyson Griffin continues to get these ridiculous lines. Are they basing this off what he was a few years ago, or is Silva just gifting him scrubs every time?

1) Pay the juice. The money will be on Nelson and if you don't like him closer to fight time you can always arb some of it off. He should take this easily though.

2) No idea why Griffin gets these lines. Take a small bet on the dog here.

**proposition joe** · 10-10-11, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by Kaladarus

1) Pay the juice. The money will be on Nelson and if you don't like him closer to fight time you can always arb some of it off. He should take this easily though.

2) No idea why Griffin gets these lines. Take a small bet on the dog here.

I totally disagree about Nelson. His takedowns are subpar and Crocop could easily outpoint him to a decision. Big Country's striking has been overrated for a while now. I'm not sure if I like Crocop enough to make any significant play on him but this has upset written all over it. Straight punches are the key to beating someone like Nelson on the feet and very few HW's have better straight punches than Mirko.

**BIGDAY** · 10-10-11, 02:24 PM

If Crocop can keep this standing, he should be able to expose Nelson's striking.

Liking Penn a lot. Hope Kongo's line keeps moving as I would love to see him as a +150 dog by fight time.

**Vaughany** · 10-10-11, 02:49 PM

I highly doubt Nelson is going to double-leg Cro-Cop! His only way of getting a takedown is from the clinch and using his size as leverage. Cro-Cop is still pretty strong in the clinch, he bullied Schaub there, Schaubs takedowns came from ducking under and double-legging...I doubt this will be as one-sided as it seems unless Nelson lands a big over-hand right.

**proposition joe** · 10-10-11, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

I highly doubt Nelson is going to double-leg Cro-Cop! His only way of getting a takedown is from the clinch and using his size as leverage. Cro-Cop is still pretty strong in the clinch, he bullied Schaub there, Schaubs takedowns came from ducking under and double-legging...I doubt this will be as one-sided as it seems unless Nelson lands a big over-hand right.

My thoughts exactly.

I hate MMAth BUT...Mir was throwing Roy in the clinch and struggled mightily getting Mirko down. Roy will try to stand and knock out Mirko, since he hasn't taken an opponent down (in my recollection) since TUF. This goes down like the JDS/Nelson fight except people are much less impressed by Nelson's chin since he *SHOULD* beat Mirko. But hey, I'm hoping most people disagree with me so that line gets close to +300.

**proposition joe** · 10-10-11, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

If Crocop can keep this standing, he should be able to expose Nelson's striking.

Liking Penn a lot. Hope Kongo's line keeps moving as I would love to see him as a +150 dog by fight time.

Are you counting on Kongo wrestling with Meathead or winning the strikes? I'm very on the fence about this fight and will definately not be playing unless either guy hits +200 or so which won't happen.

I think that Penn wins this wherever he wants. I don't recall him ever really losing to someone who had less wrestling than he does. I feel like some people will point to the Frankie fight and say that Diaz can utilize his reach to cause the same problems that Frankie's speed did. My reason for not believing that is Penn's kicks. He wasn't able to utilize any kicks to neutralize Frankie's in and out strikes since the fear of the takedown was always there. Against Diaz, that won't be the case.

**more_betterness** · 10-10-11, 04:27 PM

I'm on Penn as well... I think that his takedowns are one of the most underrated aspects of his game and that he will hit them with ease. Nick hasn't really hasn't fought anyone with strong takedowns lately, and even though he has a very active and aggressive guard, I dont think he will threaten BJ much. Bj's top control and passing is the strong point of his BJJ game. I also feel that Penn will be able to hold his own on the feet at the very least, as Diaz has pretty deficient striking defense and pretty much relies on his iron chin to absorb any counterpunches while he throws combinations.

All in all the two gameplans that I see as effective against Penn are to grind him down up against the cage eventually leading to takedowns when he tires (GSP, Florian tried in their fight), or scoring with quick punches and kicks coupled with fast footwork and in and out movement to avoid the heavy counterpunches (Edgar). Diaz skillset doesn't lead to either of these styles being a viable option because he doesn't have the wrestling to truly threaten BJ, and even though his hands are good, he doesn't have the head movement or footwork to avoid damage like Edgar did.

Only thing that worries me is BJ's gas tank, as Diaz's pace is ridiculous in every fight he is in and BJ likes burritos a little too much. I can see him fading in the third like he did in his second fight with Hughes. Hopefully we see the crazy, talking to himself BJ that showed up against Fitch and the third fight with Hughes running out to the cage! Dudes definitely got a screw loose sometimes.

**Vaughany** · 10-10-11, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by more_betterness

I'm on Penn as well... I think that his takedowns are one of the most underrated aspects of his game and that he will hit them with ease. Nick hasn't really hasn't fought anyone with strong takedowns lately, and even though he has a very active and aggressive guard, I dont think he will threaten BJ much. Bj's top control and passing is the strong point of his BJJ game. I also feel that Penn will be able to hold his own on the feet at the very least, as Diaz has pretty deficient striking defense and pretty much relies on his iron chin to absorb any counterpunches while he throws combinations.

All in all the two gameplans that I see as effective against Penn are to grind him down up against the cage eventually leading to takedowns when he tires (GSP, Florian tried in their fight), or scoring with quick punches and kicks coupled with fast footwork and in and out movement to avoid the heavy counterpunches (Edgar). Diaz skillset doesn't lead to either of these styles being a viable option because he doesn't have the wrestling to truly threaten BJ, and even though his hands are good, he doesn't have the head movement or footwork to avoid damage like Edgar did.

Only thing that worries me is BJ's gas tank, as Diaz's pace is ridiculous in every fight he is in and BJ likes burritos a little too much. I can see him fading in the third like he did in his second fight with Hughes. Hopefully we see the crazy, talking to himself BJ that showed up against Fitch and the third fight with Hughes running out to the cage! Dudes definitely got a screw loose sometimes.

**GunShard** · 10-11-11, 12:38 AM

Nick Diaz has a slight reach advantage and cardio advantage. Hard fight to predict.

I noticed that Strikeforce fighters lose a lot in the UFC. But I shouldn't follow trends like these. It's about one on one match ups.

**Vaughany** · 10-11-11, 03:03 AM

Originally posted by GunShard

Nick Diaz has a slight reach advantage and cardio advantage. Hard fight to predict.

I noticed that Strikeforce fighters lose a lot in the UFC. But I shouldn't follow trends like these. It's about one on one match ups.

Who are you basing that on? Jake Shields and?

**BIGDAY** · 10-11-11, 08:02 AM

Originally posted by proposition joe

Are you counting on Kongo wrestling with Meathead or winning the strikes? I'm very on the fence about this fight and will definately not be playing unless either guy hits +200 or so which won't happen.

I think that Penn wins this wherever he wants. I don't recall him ever really losing to someone who had less wrestling than he does. I feel like some people will point to the Frankie fight and say that Diaz can utilize his reach to cause the same problems that Frankie's speed did. My reason for not believing that is Penn's kicks. He wasn't able to utilize any kicks to neutralize Frankie's in and out strikes since the fear of the takedown was always there. Against Diaz, that won't be the case.

Kongo will test Mintrione's striking. One of Mintrione's first tests imo. The fight odds should be around EV imo so if either fighter got to +150 they would be my selection. Both fighters have KO power. If Kongo wants to make any kind of run, this fight should motivate him.

GL.

**proposition joe** · 10-11-11, 08:53 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Who are you basing that on? Jake Shields and?

Mayhem, Overeem, Melendez, Cung Le had Vitor not been injured...

Oh wait, those fights haven't happened yet?

**Vaughany** · 10-11-11, 10:14 AM

Originally posted by proposition joe

Mayhem, Overeem, Melendez, Cung Le had Vitor not been injured...

Oh wait, those fights haven't happened yet?

**Spaceman Spiff** · 10-11-11, 10:52 AM

It's pretty odd to see Mitrione as the favorite over Kongo. Mitrione might be fast enough to catch him, but if I had to bet, I'd go with Kongo.
I also think Diaz has an excellent chance to win against Penn if it stays on the feet, or if Penn gasses while trying to hold him down. With that said, Penn definitely could take down Diaz and avoid the sub, but I don't see him finishing Diaz.

The only bet I've been confident to make on this event so far is a Nelson/Cerrone Parlay, there's a few close matchups.

**Vitooch** · 10-11-11, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

Kongo will test Mintrione's striking. One of Mintrione's first tests imo. The fight odds should be around EV imo so if either fighter got to +150 they would be my selection. Both fighters have KO power. If Kongo wants to make any kind of run, this fight should motivate him.

GL.

Is there any chance you can see Kongo's line improve? I've seen much more people on this and other websites putting coin down on Mitrione.

**Vaughany** · 10-11-11, 03:43 PM

Could see Kongo reaching at least +140 by fight time

**Vitooch** · 10-11-11, 03:54 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Could see Kongo reaching at least +140 by fight time

If so, I'm all over Kongo. This fight should be even as BigDay suggested, so I'm hopping on the dog.

**Vitooch** · 10-11-11, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Is there any chance you can see Kongo's line improve? I've seen much more people on this and other websites putting coin down on Mitrione.

Sorry I sort of misread your post. Yes, the fight should definitely be even so Kongo at +150 would be gold.

**MMASpeculator** · 10-11-11, 08:08 PM

I think for the Diaz/Penn fight, it will all come down to stamina. Diaz always picks his opponents apart after they are gassed out. He keeps coming forward and relies on his long, stiff jabs and strong chin. He's also a high level BJJ fighter, so even though he won't submit Penn, he doesn't have to fear being submitted.

Another factor here is that Penn respects Diaz.. maybe a little too much. I have Diaz on this fight purely because I think Penn will gas from the intensity of it.

**MMASpeculator** · 10-11-11, 08:08 PM

I think for the Diaz/Penn fight, it will all come down to stamina. Diaz always picks his opponents apart after they are gassed out. He keeps coming forward and relies on his long, stiff jabs and strong chin. He's also a high level BJJ fighter, so even though he won't submit Penn, he doesn't have to fear being submitted.

Another factor here is that Penn respects Diaz.. maybe a little too much. I have Diaz on this fight purely because I think Penn will gas from the intensity of it.

**bigjah15** · 10-12-11, 03:54 PM

meat head by knockout. Kongo got put down by pat barry. meat head is going to blast kongo into next year

**Vitooch** · 10-13-11, 08:29 PM

UFC 137 Plays (So Far):

George Ropp at +250 vs. Hatsu Hioki - Risk $15 to win $37.50
B.J. Penn at at -115 vs. Nick Diaz - Risk $25 to win $21.74

These are lines I don't see improving, so I went ahead and made some of these early plays.

I think B.J. Penn has proven himself against much higher level competition.

I see either Penn taking down Diaz with his very underrated wrestling (where he will be difficult to submit), or getting the better of Diaz standing. Diaz may have a reach advantage, but physical disadvantages haven't exactly limited Penn's game. It is powerful wrestlers that have gotten the better of Penn. And unless Diaz adopts a Frankie Edgar-esque style of quickly moving in and out of the pocket standing, I see him having trouble with B.J. Penn standing. Diaz likes to brawl with fighters on the fight, while B.J Penn is much more methodical.

Let me first say that I understand that Hioki has proven himself to be one of the best featherweights in the world, and doesn't necessarily need a win in the UFC in order to prove that. However, Roop is no slouch, and presents a very tough matchup for Hioki in his UFC debut. Roop has proven to be a very dangerous kickboxer in his wins over the Korean Zombie and Grispi. If he can keep the fight standing for long enough, he may very well pull off a huge upset knockout.

Let me also add that we have seen hyped Asian fighters disappoint in their American MMA debuts.

**MMAbetMASTA** · 10-14-11, 06:54 PM

Originally posted by proposition joe

I totally disagree about Nelson. His takedowns are subpar and Crocop could easily outpoint him to a decision. Big Country's striking has been overrated for a while now. I'm not sure if I like Crocop enough to make any significant play on him but this has upset written all over it. Straight punches are the key to beating someone like Nelson on the feet and very few HW's have better straight punches than Mirko.

Completely agree. Nelson's td's are horrendous, mirko has stuffed, sprawled, and popped up against guys with way better tds and athleticism. Country's striking is overrated and if it stays standing this is mirko's fight to lose. Mirko, although aging and clearly not the same striker he used to be, will be faster, more technical and have more striking weapons at his disposal.

Obviously mirko's biggest concern in this fight is his chin. Something tells me he knows he is fighting for his ufc survival, so he is gonna do his best to protect that chin and I don't see nelson's striking being good enough to exploit it.

You guys paying that juice on nelson are taking a HUGE risk imo.

I'll probably be making an upset play on mirko, for sure throw him in some small parlays.