Picks for UFC Fight Night 25 BOTB

[jacktheknife]

I haven't seen anything in Lopez's fights to warrant being a 5-to-1 favorite. Edwards isn't reliable but he's a comer and might be worth a fly at +320.

Wish it was more then a handful of sbr points, but calling a %23.8 underdog is how I like to start any night.

[MMAbetMASTA]

how the **** is brookins +200. shit makes no sense. this is a 50/50 fight. brookins is an elite level wrestler, and koch has serious knockout power. what has koch shown to make people think he can stay off the ground here?

Koch stuffed mendes a few times and scrambled out from the bottom a few times too. Mendes is a better wrestler than brookins imo. If mendes had trouble keeping koch in a favorable position, I think brookins might too. Koch is no slouch off his back either. Coupled with pretty ugly stand up defense, I see why people like koch. Personally, I am with you though on the line gap - I think it should be much closer. Brookins will be larger than mendes and if his stand up has improved then this will be interesting.. Therefore at this point the value is on brookins at +200. However I still pick koch though, not touching this one... GL, hopefully you're right and cash in on a nice dog!!!

Keeping it simple for my plays tonight.

I did some research and am following some of you on the stone play, got $320 to win $200, wish I would have got on when he was at better odds.. I won't lie though, it was hard for me to pull the trigger on this because stone's competition outside of his 2 losses are horrible, he's only beaten one guy with a winning / less than .500 record. I've watched some footage and understand the hype, but its one thing to beat D level comp and look good in your camp and another to fight on the big stage and perform. However, in his losses, as you've all said, he has shown signs of promise. Also, the fact that walker is a stand up based fighter (who's also fought mostly D level comp) and stone is great grappler makes me like stone. Hopefully we hit this cuz I'm gonna be pissed if not haha.

Took a big risk on ellenberger and going with my gut on this one. rarely put more than a bill on a dog but I got $4 bills to win $640 on ellenberger...

Hopefully a nice night tonight, I could use one. Gl to you all!

[illmatick]

Looks good Besta, I might be adding on to my Ellenberger play as well. Just depends on how the undercard goes.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Wish it was more then a handful of sbr points, but calling a %23.8 underdog is how I like to start any night.

for real.... thank god he was at that price because I'll admit I thought he was gonna whoop edwards and I would have taken him if he was -200 or less. Love me a good upset over a heavy, undeserved favorite!!!

[Vaughany]

I am feeling really confident about Mike Lullo. Line is down to +110. I'm doubling, maybe even tripling down on him. My book doesn't offer props, but I would bet he finishes this with a submission inside the distance.

BL dude

[illmatick]

good stuff from Waldburger.

[cheeese]

He outclassed that kid badly.

[cheeese]

Clay has no answer. Please don't gas.

[cheeese]

Thank you V!

[Vaughany]

Thank you V!

[gabe]

People are gonna hammer u for posting picks after the fight has happened! Ur not doing yourself any favours!

Edwards wasn't a pick, just a last minute small gut bet. You guys couldn't have bet in time, if I posted.

[Vaughany]

Vagner's BJJ is on another level to Cody's, I think he has a decent chance of a rear-naked or armbar finish, similar to the Jacob Clark fight. Cody should be fighting at 145 as well, he barely cuts any weight. Problem is Cody is wild and aggressive which means it will be easier for Vagner to get to the ground where he's comfortable, unlike Cerrone who was smart and technical.

Booooom

[gabe]

Man, I thought Cody was gonna take this, up til the end. He should have kept it on his feet. Going for the guillotine cost him, 'cos it took the fight from stand up to ground. He was superior in the stand-up, he should have kept it there. He made a mistake trying to end this guy with a guillotine. Had $46 to win $65. Small bet, lost.

[Educ8d Degener8]

how the **** is brookins +200. shit makes no sense. this is a 50/50 fight. brookins is an elite level wrestler, and koch has serious knockout power. what has koch shown to make people think he can stay off the ground here?

I for the life of me don't remember his wrestling being elite... I remember him being relentless and scrappy, and solid on the ground once he got it there, but I don't remember GSP/Koscheck-like takedowns that made me say, "damn, this kid has elite wrestling". But I may have forgotten -- I forget more sh*t than I remember...

Coming out of the Roufus camp -- I'm curious to see if Koch plays the role of Pettis in the Roller fight or Pettis in the Guida fight...

[gabe]

Six fight parlay hit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[gabe]

7-3

great night

[gabe]

9-3 (laid small wagers on justin edwards and lance benoist) with bets made, 7-3 with picks made, six team/fight parlay hit

three losses were:

Mike Lullo- I expected less stand up and more jiu-jitsu from Mike Lullo. He had a different game plan than I thought he would. I don't think he lost the fight, but he certainly didn't get the judges decision.

Cody McKenzie- he won the first round and was doing well in the second until the end there. he made the mistake of going for the guillotine and taking the fight to the ground one too many times. He finally got caught. Had he continued to keep it standing, he would have taken an easy decision, or even likely scored the KO. Rocha couldn't stand with him and couldn't take him to the ground, Cody did Rocha a huge favor by taking the fight to the ground.

Jonathan Brookins- In my eyes, Brookins won all three rounds. He dominated most of the three rounds, although not doing much damage, but still- domination. He landed a lot of good hits. Maybe not as much as Koch did, but close. It wasn't a good performance for Brookins, but he won the damn thing. He kept Koch from following through with his game plan. Koch couldn't do shit to him but land some shots. He was clearly aggravated, as I predicted. Fight went the way I predicted, except Brookins didn't get the decision.

[Vaughany]

Jonathan Brookins- In my eyes, Brookins won all three rounds. He dominated most of the three rounds, although not doing much damage, but still- domination. He landed a lot of good hits. Maybe not as much as Koch did, but close. It wasn't a good performance for Brookins, but he won the damn thing. He kept Koch from following through with his game plan. Koch couldn't do shit to him but land some shots. He was clearly aggravated, as I predicted. Fight went the way I predicted, except Brookins didn't get the decision.

[v1y]

I still think i'm correct that brookins had value at +200. That fight was dead even.

[gabe]

I still think i'm correct that brookins had value at +200. That fight was dead even.

If anything, he should have been a slight favorite. Koch didn't do shit to me. NOT SHIT.

[gabe]

So far my biggest fight night bet is $850 to win $200 on Dunham. I'm gonna be adding to it. Also going big on TJ, Belcher, and Stone. I'm considering parlaying the 4..

Ended up risking $1,275 to win $500 on Dunham.

Risked $50 for my six fight parlay and the payout was $383.

[Educ8d Degener8]

I still think i'm correct that brookins had value at +200. That fight was dead even.

Nah.

[jacktheknife]

Ended up risking $1,275 to win $500 on Dunham.

Uhhhhhhhhh...

[gabe]

Uhhhhhhhhh...

lol woah i meant $2,125- math was way off. first risked $850 to win $200 then before the fight started i risked another $850 to win $200 and another $425 to win $100 within minutes of each other. Three seperate bets, 850, 850, 425, payout 500.

i have no excuse for why my math was off. i even used the calculator on my laptop. lol i'm pretty sure i saw 2125 and by the time i typed it in my post, it had turned into 1275 in my head. i was pretty baked. i am now, too.

[MMAbetMASTA]

9-3 (laid small wagers on justin edwards and lance benoist) with bets made, 7-3 with picks made, six team/fight parlay hit

three losses were:

Mike Lullo- I expected less stand up and more jiu-jitsu from Mike Lullo. He had a different game plan than I thought he would. I don't think he lost the fight, but he certainly didn't get the judges decision.

Cody McKenzie- he won the first round and was doing well in the second until the end there. he made the mistake of going for the guillotine and taking the fight to the ground one too many times. He finally got caught. Had he continued to keep it standing, he would have taken an easy decision, or even likely scored the KO. Rocha couldn't stand with him and couldn't take him to the ground, Cody did Rocha a huge favor by taking the fight to the ground.

Jonathan Brookins- In my eyes, Brookins won all three rounds. He dominated most of the three rounds, although not doing much damage, but still- domination. He landed a lot of good hits. Maybe not as much as Koch did, but close. It wasn't a good performance for Brookins, but he won the damn thing. He kept Koch from following through with his game plan. Koch couldn't do shit to him but land some shots. He was clearly aggravated, as I predicted. Fight went the way I predicted, except Brookins didn't get the decision.

Dude you're seriously trying to justify these losses? No offense, but you couldn't be more wrong with what you've said. Domination from brookins? McKenzie won the first round? Lullo won the fight after clearly losing the first two rounds and barely taking the third? lol.

Also, not trying to bash you, but like V said you're not doing yourself any favors with much of your responses in this post... its quite funny and smart people are not gonna step in the BS. I'm definitely sensing a jesus here....

[gabe]

Dude you're seriously trying to justify these losses? No offense, but you couldn't be more wrong with what you've said. Domination from brookins? McKenzie won the first round? Lullo won the fight after clearly losing the first two rounds and barely taking the third? lol.

Also, not trying to bash you, but like V said you're not doing yourself any favors with much of your responses in this post... its quite funny and smart people are not gonna step in the BS. I'm definitely sensing a jesus here....

Justifying losses? Did I expect to go 10-0? No. I'm simply giving my thoughts on the losses. I don't need to justify shit when I've hit 7 of 10. Simply sharing thoughts.

I didn't say Lullo won the fight, I said he didn't lose it outright.

YES, Cody McKenzie won the first round, hands down. I don't know what fight you were watching. Rocha was lost, he couldn't stand with him.

Also, YES, when Koch couldn't do ANYTHING to Brookins for most of the fight, that is called "domination" -- Brookins didn't do much damage, but he controlled all three rounds.

I'm not doing myself any favors? I'm not here to do myself any favors, I'm here to give out picks for free.

"And like V said..." V never said shit like that, don't put words in someone elses mouth.

Yes, you are trying to bash me. Don't call yourself a smart person, you CLEARLY are not one.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Justifying losses? Did I expect to go 10-0? No. I'm simply giving my thoughts on the losses.

I didn't say Lullo won the fight, I said he didn't lose it outright.

YES, Cody McKenzie won the first round, hands down. I don't know what fight you were watching. Rocha was lost, he couldn't stand with him.

Also, YES, when Koch couldn't do ANYTHING to Brookins for most of the fight, that is called "domination" -- Brookins didn't do much damage, but he controlled all three rounds.

I'm not doing myself any favors? I'm not here to do myself any favors, I'm here to give out picks for free.

Yes, you are trying to bash me. Don't call yourself a smart person, you CLEARLY are not one.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Dude, Brookins did jack sh*t in that fight.

Grabbing a leg and hanging on for dear life isn't controlling a fight... and I like the kid. If he would've worked more elbows/dirty boxing from the clinch using his size advantage that seemed to work in the first few minutes, he may have had some success... Then he switched up to wall & stall and laid an egg the rest of the fight.

[gabe]

Dude, Brookins did jack sh*t in that fight.

Grabbing a leg and hanging on for dear life isn't controlling a fight... and I like the kid. If he would've worked more elbows/dirty boxing from the clinch using his size advantage that seemed to work in the first few minutes, he may have had some success... Then he switched up to wall & stall and laid an egg the rest of the fight.

If Brookins did jack shit, then what did Koch do? Because Koch did less than Brookins. Being held against the cage and taking knees to your legs is not very impressive.

I'm not saying Brookins was impressive, either, I'm just saying he had control throughout the fight. Yes, he won it in a boring fashion, but he won it, nonetheless. Koch didn't do NEARLY enough to earn a victory. His game plan didn't work, he got aggravated and struggled, and still walked away with the win.

[Educ8d Degener8]

LOL, dude, just revel in your wins... You had a solid solid card there - no need to rationalize the calls you got wrong.

Brookins winning by dec would've hit a 50:1 parlay for me, and I certainly wouldn't have minded that. But the guy lost.

[gabe]

LOL, dude, just revel in your wins... You had a solid solid card there - no need to rationalize the calls you got wrong.

Brookins winning by dec would've hit a 50:1 parlay for me, and I certainly wouldn't have minded that. But the guy lost.

I am not rationalizing my losses. I was giving my thoughts on the fights I bet on that lost. I usually tend to have thoughts after a fight. If you don't like it, you can stay away from my thread.

There is nothing to rationalize about Cody McKenzie being choked out and Mike Lullo not living up to expectations.

And if I feel Brookins was the better fighter and lost, I shouldn't say anything about it? Why shouldn't I? Even if I didn't have money on Brookins, I wouldn't be OK with the decision.

Just quit hating. Enough. I could have simply given my thoughts on the losses without getting drama from bored fools in return. I don't give a shit if you think Koch beat up Brookins. The fight I was watching didn't go that way. I have the right to express how I feel about the fight. I wasn't doing it in your thread, I don't know why you're crying about it.

[Educ8d Degener8]

I am not rationalizing my losses. I was giving my thoughts on the fights I bet on that lost. I usually tend to have thoughts after a fight. If you don't like it, you can stay away from my thread.

There is nothing to rationalize about Cody McKenzie being choked out and Mike Lullo not living up to expectations.

And if I feel Brookins was the better fighter and lost, I shouldn't say anything about it? Why shouldn't I? Even if I didn't have money on Brookins, I wouldn't be OK with the decision.

Just quit hating. Enough. I could have simply given my thoughts on the losses without getting drama from bored fools in return. I don't give a shit if you think Koch beat up Brookins. The fight I was watching didn't go that way. I have the right to express how I feel about the fight. I wasn't doing it in your thread, I don't know why you're crying about it.

Sorry you're all butt hurt over it.

Solid night other than that though -- Seems you're a sensitive type that needs a good back patting so I'll give you that...



Feel better Nancy?

[gabe]

Sorry you're all butt hurt over it.

Solid night other than that though -- Seems you're a sensitive type that needs a good back patting so I'll give you that...



Feel better Nancy?

Why am I getting shit for sharing my thoughts on fights? Brookins loss isn't a big deal, I've seen guys who did a lot more lose decisions. I'm not even pissed 'cos of the bet. I only had a small bet on him.

[Vaughany]

Fight metric stats would argue that Koch wasn't dominated!...

http://blog.fightmetric.com/2011/09/koch-vs-brookins-official-ufc.html

[Vaughany]

Brookins had 5% takedown rate = 1 out of 20 attempts! So yeah, total domination